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Wednesday, May 22, 10:42 AM Bernanke: Stocks continue with solid gains as the chairman suggests the Fed may never sell the massive assets it's accumulated, instead just letting them roll down. Most interesting are Treasury prices (TLT -1.1%) rolling over - the 10-year yield sunk to 1.89% as Bernanke's soft comments hit the tape, but has reversed to now threaten 2%. Gold (GLD +0.6%) has given up much of its knee-jerk gains, and the dollar (UUP +0.3%) is having none of it, higher across the board, particularly vs. the aussie (FXA -1.1%), yen (FXY -1%), and loonie (FXC -0.6%). 5 Comments
Monday, May 20, 9:47 AM UBS' 5 "suspected" asset bubbles: 1) Risk-free rates - specifically Treasurys (TLT), Bunds (BUND, BUNL), JGBs (JGBL, JGBT, JGBD, JGBS) 2) Credit (HYG, JNK) 3) Real estate in Asia (WPS) 4) Certain EM equity markets (EIDO, IDXJ, EPHE, THD, EWW) 5) Australian banks (WBK, NABZY.PK, ANZBY.PK, CMWAY.PK). Comment!
Thursday, May 16, 10:10 AM More on Philly Fed: The big miss is another in a line of weak data points this morning. The decline was led by a steep drop in shipments to -8.5 from +9.1. Also notable is a big jump in inventories to +4.1 from -22.2. Employment worsened to -8.7 from -6.7. The percentage of firms reporting employment decreases was 22% vs. those reporting increases at 14% - a number sure to cross the desk of the FOMC doves this morning. Treasurys have had a tough May, but they're bouncing today, TLT +1.2%. The leveraged bear ETF: TBT -2.4%. Stocks give up early gains (DIA -0.2%). 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 16, 8:38 AM SPY -0.3% premarket, giving up small early gains after a big jump in jobless claims and a rather shocking decline in housing starts. Starts were off 16.5% from March, but up 13.1% Y/Y. On a more hopeful note, building permits were up 14.3% from March, up 35.8% Y/Y. Treasurys catch a bid, TLT +0.5% premarket. Homebuilders ETF: XHB -0.2%. Comment!
Monday, May 13, 8:50 AM Stock index futures move to session highs following the big beat on retail sales, SPY -0.1% premarket. Excluding a 4.7% decline in gasoline sales, retail spending grew 0.6% in April. Bond prices continue their recent slide, the 10-year note off half of a point. The yield may challenge 2% today. TLT -0.9% premarket. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, May 10, 10:35 AM Bill Gross (BOND) attempts to ring a bell, calling the 30-year bond bull market over as of April 29, 2013 (while pushing Pimco as the one to help navigate in this new world). The 30-year Treasury yield touched 2.8% at April's end. Including a 9 bp pop today, the yield now stands at 3.08%. TLT -1%, TBT +1.9%. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 9, 1:47 PM Massive doesn't begin to describe the move into the ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (UST) last Wednesday as the $12M AUM fund went to $833M overnight. It was accompanied by a 53% increase in the $3.75B iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI), suggesting someone (or ones) making a large bet targeting the middle of the Treasury curve. The moves came following FOMC minutes at which it indicated a readiness to increase QE as needed. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 9, 6:23 AM "Today government bonds should come with a warning about interest rate risk," a university fund manager tells FT, which says many university endowments have slashed their U.S. Treasury (TLT, TBT) holdings from as high as 30% of AUM during the crisis to as low as zero currently ("everyone" has less than 5%, one manager claims). Holding fast to larger allocations may require a fleetness of foot going forward in order to avoid capital losses if (or when) rates rise, a style of investing not suited to endowment managers. 1 Comment
Wednesday, May 8, 12:29 PM "There is no safe haven in today's markets," says Paul Singer, speaking at the Ira Sohn conference, and blaming the distorting effects of QE. While not yet advocating shorting Treasurys (TLT, TBT), Singer says those long need to know they're trading at the wrong price, perhaps 50-100 basis points too low. 1 Comment [Breaking News, U.S. Economy]
Monday, May 6, 3:29 PM This time is different for Treasurys (TLT, TBT)? "The Fed has been very transparent and their transparency should help offset the risks that were experienced in 1994," says JPMorgan's head of rates Edward Fitzpatrick. He's joined in this opinion by others who ought to know better, including Templeton's Michael Materasso and Vanguard's Gemma Wright-Casparius, all of whom attribute the 1994 rout to communication, not a crazed buildup in leverage. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, May 3, 3:13 PM "Bonds are acting like the bond market is manipulated ... because it is," says Jeff Gundlach, as QE is far more of a put on Treasury prices (TLT -2.3%) than it is on stocks. A salve to bond bulls on a day when the yield on the 30-year is 14 bps higher, Gundlach says yields won't go on a sustained rise anytime soon because QE is going nowhere. A favorite of the bond bears, TBT +4.6%. 7 Comments
Thursday, May 2, 8:36 AM More on the big drop in jobless claims: At 324K, it's the lowest level since January 2008. The 4-week moving average fell 16K to 342,250. S&P 500 futures remain +0.5%. Treasury prices slip, TLT -0.6%, TBT +1.2% premarket. 18 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, April 30, 9:07 AM "View the 'fruit' debt the way we used to view IBM issues ... perfectly timed in retrospect," says Kevin Ferry, tweeting about Apple's prospective debt offering. Back in the day when rates actually fluctuated, IBM had a remarkable knack for issuing at the cycle lows in yield. The 10-year Treasury yield hits another YTD low, -2 bps to 1.65%. TLT +0.4% premarket. 1 Comment [Financials]
Friday, April 26, 8:45 AM More on the Q1 GDP (first estimate) miss: Government spending slowdown continues, with real federal government spending off 8.4% vs. 14.8% in Q4; defense spending off 11.5% vs. 22.1%. Real PCE +3.2%. Nonresidential fixed investment +2.1%. Real exports +2.9%, Real imports +5.4%. Real final sales +1.5% vs. 1.9% in Q4. Inventories added 103 bps to GDP in Q1 after subtracting 152 bps in Q4. SPY -0.3% premarket. The long bond pops half of a point. TLT +0.8% premarket. (full report) 68 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, April 25, 10:16 AM SocGen's Al Edwards doesn't disappoint his fans, believing the S&P is headed to 450 and gold to $10K. Most interesting is this chart on bond yields vs. forecasts. Forecasts in the deeper past essentially matched actual yields, yet for the last decade estimates have consistently called for "normalization," i.e. higher rates, but it's never happened. "Consensus has still not accepted that we remain locked in an Ice Age environment that will see U.S. (and U.K. and German) yields (TLT, TBT) converge to Japanese sub-1%." 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, April 24, 8:47 AM The long bond moves higher (yield declines) following the soft durable goods report. In addition to the weak March print, February's 5.6% gain was revised down to 4.3%, with nondefense ex-transport orders revised down to -4.7% from -2.7%. Higher previously, the 30-year yield is now off one basis point to 2.9%. TLT flat premarket. Comment! [U.S. Economy]

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SPDR Barclays Long Term Treasury ETF