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TLT

iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

6/18/2013, 10:12 PM ET

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Monday, June 17, 2:47 PM Stocks give up more than half of their earlier gains 75 minutes before the bell, the S&P 500 (SPY +0.4%). It's those interest rates again. Quiet for most of the day, rates began turning higher (TLT -0.4%) just after lunch, and the 10-year yield is now up 4 bps to 2.17%. Favorites of the dividend players, health care (XLV) and utilities (XLU) underperform - just flat on the session. 3 Comments
Monday, June 17, 12:56 PM More from Zulauf at Barron's: Taking issue with the gathering consensus of a stronger economy and the Fed pulling back, Zulauf suggests bond yields (TLT, TBT) may have stopped rising and could be set to fall. In conjunction with that view, noncyclical names (XLU, XLV) could be set for a comeback at the expense of cyclical sectors (XLV, XLB, XLE). Comment! [Quick Ideas]
Monday, June 17, 8:42 AM More on Empire State: The headline number is a big beat, but employment conditions soften with the Number of Employees index falling to 0 from 5.68, and the Average Workweek falling to -11.29 from -1.14. New Orders fell to -6.69 from -1.17. Shipments dropped to -11.77 from about 0. The 6-month outlook inched down to 25. What rose? Prices received: To 11.29 from 4.55. Treasury prices (TLT, TBT) remain flat on the session. (full report) 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Friday, June 14, 2:37 PM The anti-QE rhetoric is building just in time for next week's FOMC meeting, as Guggenheim's Scott Minerd channels his inner Bill Gross, calling the Treasury market (TLT, TBT) a "ponzi scheme." "The only reason investors would buy Treasurys today is that they expect the Federal Reserve will buy them at higher prices in the future," Minerd tells clients. The longer the Fed's bond buying continues, "the more volatility-inducing pressure will build." 13 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, June 13, 1:10 PM Treasury prices (TLT +0.6%) slide off the session highs as the 30-year auction prices the long bond at 3.355% vs. the when-issued yield of 3.324%. Stocks don't seem to mind, the S&P (SPY +0.7%) climbing to about the day's high. 3 Comments
Thursday, June 13, 8:53 AM A check of Treasurys following the marginally better-than-expected economic data at 8:30 finds prices giving up just a tiny bit of earlier gains, TLT +0.8%. The 10-year yield ticks up one bp to 2.19%. S&P 500 futures have nearly erased earlier losses, now off 0.1%. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, June 13, 6:38 AM S&P 500 (SPY) futures slip 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) -0.3% as global markets continue to sell off. Europe's down less than 1%, but the real damage was in Asia, with the Nikkei off 6.4%, Shangahi down 2.8%, and the Hang Seng -2.2%. U.S. Treasury yields helpfully back up a bit, the 10-year off 5 bps to 2.18%. TLT +0.9% premarket. 2 Comments
Wednesday, June 12, 2:53 PM Treasurys (TLT -1.2%) fail to catch a bid even as the Dow drops triple digits. Panicky action continues in income favorites (REM -1.3%), notably Armour Residential (ARR -4.7%), where the selling has now spread to its preferred shares, the series B off 2%. The common is off 28% over the last month. Some others: New York Mortgage (NYMT -2.7%), American Capital (MTGE -2.6%), Western Asset (WMC -3.9%), Annaly (NLY -1.7%), Dynex (DX -2.6%), New Residential (NRZ -3.6%), Ellington Financial (EFC -2.2%). 11 Comments [Financials, On the Move]
Wednesday, June 12, 10:15 AM As a shaky bond market (TLT -0.8%) helps snuff out an early rally for stocks, Bill Gross reminds the Fed isn't hiking rates for years, and it makes intermediate-term Treasurys a buy at yields greater than 2%. The 10-year yield is up 3 bps to 2.22%. Treasury ETFs (long and short) in the 7-10 year range: IEF, PST, ITE, TENZ, TYNS, UST, VGIT, TBX, GVI. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, June 11, 10:19 AM Price matters and even though Bill Gross declared the secular bond bull market over 6 weeks ago, the 10-year Treasury (TLT) north of 2.2% is starting to hold some appeal. It's a "decent environment to earn your carry," he says. The Total Return Fund (BOND ... is not as vulnerable as investors believe it to be as witnessed in May." Comment! [Financials]
Tuesday, June 11, 7:15 AM Bond yields stay on the rise, the 10-year Treasury up 5 bps to more than a one-year high of 2.27%. The long bond is up 2 bps to 3.4%. TLT -0.4%, TBT +0.6% premarket. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Friday, June 7, 9:02 AM Stock index futures remain higher - the S&P 500 (SPY) +0.5% - but, be warned, Treasurys have decided the jobs number is a little fast for their liking. Higher earlier, TLT is now off 0.7%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.05% in the moments following the report, but has now jumped to 2.12%. 2 Comments
Friday, June 7, 8:35 AM SPY +0.5% and QQQ +0.4% as the Nonfarm Payroll print doesn't show a blowout increase in jobs and unemployment actually ticked higher - perhaps pushing off the Fed's tapering for another quarter. Importantly, Treasury prices head higher (yields lower), TLT +0.3% premarket. 2 Comments [On the Move]
Thursday, June 6, 12:15 PM Stocks turn down at lunchtime, the Dow (DIA -0.3%), S&P 500 (SPY -0.2%), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ -0.4%) all at session lows as some may be trimming positions ahead of what should be a vital employment report tomorrow morning. Long-term Treasury prices (TLT +0.4%) move to their highest levels in about 2 weeks. 4 Comments
Thursday, June 6, 7:28 AM Add SocGen's professional bear Al Edwards to those doubting (previous) an imminent tapering: "I might be wrong, but I just don't see this economy as healthy," he tells CNBC. "If I am right than any sharp rise in bond yields (TLT) should quickly derail this apology of a recovery." The monthly jobs report (25 hours away) is definitely popcorn-worthy again. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, June 5, 11:16 AM Stocks broadly tumble in late-morning trade, the S&P 500 (SPY -0.8%), the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ -0.8%), and the Dow (DIA, DOG) off triple-digits. The financial sector (XLF -1.3%) leads the way, headed by a 2.1% decline in Citigroup. Higher interest rates may be the worry, but the stock market's fall pretty much means they're not coming. The 10-year Treasury yield slips 3 bps to 2.10%. TLT +1%, TBT -1.8%. 14 Comments

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