Will Wednesday's Fed Minutes Spark A Sell-Off?
Chris Ciovacco
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Tue, May 21
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U.S. Economic Profile For May 17, 2013James Picerno • Fri, May 17 -
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Recent Asset Class PerformanceBespoke Investment Group • Sun, May 12 -
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Will Wednesday's Fed Minutes Spark A Sell-Off?Chris Ciovacco • Tue, May 21
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U.S. Economic Profile For May 17, 2013James Picerno • Fri, May 17
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Recent Asset Class PerformanceBespoke Investment Group • Sun, May 12
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There are no Transcripts on TLT.
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at CNBC.com (Wed, 4:17PM)
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at CNBC.com (May 9, 2013)
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at MarketWatch.com (May 3, 2013)
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at CNBC.com (Apr 17, 2013)
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at CNBC.com (Mar 8, 2013)
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at MarketWatch.com (Jan 30, 2013)
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at MarketWatch.com (Jan 4, 2013)
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at CNBC.com (Nov 16, 2012)
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at CNBC.com (Nov 7, 2012)
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at MarketWatch.com (Oct 11, 2012)
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at CNBC.com (Oct 10, 2012)
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at MarketWatch.com (Oct 1, 2012)
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at CNBC.com (Sep 26, 2012)
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at CNBC.com (Sep 13, 2012)
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at CNBC.com (Sep 13, 2012)
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at CNBC.com (Sep 7, 2012)
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at MarketWatch.com (Sep 4, 2012)
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at MarketWatch.com (Aug 1, 2012)
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at MarketWatch.com (Aug 1, 2012)
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at CNBC.com (Jul 12, 2012)
TLT vs. ETF Alternatives
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The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund seeks to approximate the total rate of return of the long-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index.
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Country: United States
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- In Your Portfolio: Broad U.S. Bond ETFs, A Guide to U.S. Government Bond ETFs
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- Monday, May 20, 9:47 AM UBS' 5 "suspected" asset bubbles: 1) Risk-free rates - specifically Treasurys (TLT), Bunds (BUND, BUNL), JGBs (JGBL, JGBT, JGBD, JGBS) 2) Credit (HYG, JNK) 3) Real estate in Asia (WPS) 4) Certain EM equity markets (EIDO, IDXJ, EPHE, THD, EWW) 5) Australian banks (WBK, NABZY.PK, ANZBY.PK, CMWAY.PK). Comment!
- Saturday, May 18, 9:15 AM Leon Cooperman and partner Steve Einhorn keep it simple: Stocks (VTI) are cheap relative to interest rates and inflation. The guy who bought T-bills (SHY) has migrated to T-bonds (TLT), the guy who bought T-bonds has moved to investment grade corporates (LQD), the guy who bought IG is now in high-yield (HYG, JNK), and so on (glasses clink in the FOMC board room). Their largest position is Sprint Nextel (S) - as fans of Masayoshi Son and long-time owners of DISH, the duo like seeing two industry titans both wanting the same asset. New Citigroup (C) management should be able to double ROE over the next 2-3 years, and Transocean (RIG) sells for a significant discount to asset value. 4 Comments [Quick Ideas]
- Friday, May 17, 10:35 AM Stocks add to gains (SPY +0.6%) as the mid-May UMich Consumer Sentiment read rises to 83.7 vs. 76.4 at the end of April and against expectations for 78. The current conditions index jumped 7.6 points to 97.5 - a new high for the economic recovery. Treasurys (TLT -0.7%) slide further. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Friday, May 17, 9:38 AM Did the Fed tighten while we were getting a cup of coffee? The greenback is soaring against all other currencies, with the dollar bull ETF (UUP) gaining 0.6% - an unusually large move for that vehicle. Strength against the yen (FXY -0.3%) and the aussie (FXA -0.9%) are givens of late, but the greenback is up about 1% vs. both the loonie (FXC) and the swissie (FXF), and about 0.6% vs. the euro (FXE) and cable (FXB). Getting hit are Treasurys (TLT -0.5%), the dollar bear ETF (UDN -0.6%) and of course, gold (GLD -0.7%). 5 Comments [Global & FX]
- Friday, May 17, 8:06 AM "Printing of money and the seeking of safe returns" have made cash (SHY) and bonds (TLT) terrible investments, says Ray Dalio (video). The same activity, on the other hand, is great for "other assets," i.e. stocks. "There will be a tightening ahead." 1 Comment
- Thursday, May 16, 12:07 PM Bill Gross pokes some fun at himself, telling Bloomberg TV "We are not always right, but we are always certain." He reiterates his belief that the 30+ year secular bond bull market is over, but isn't expecting a 1994-like meltdown in Treasurys. He instead thinks Treasurys (TLT) and corporates - both investment-grade (LQD) and high-yield (HYG, JNK) - won't move much over the coming 12 months. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Thursday, May 16, 10:10 AM More on Philly Fed: The big miss is another in a line of weak data points this morning. The decline was led by a steep drop in shipments to -8.5 from +9.1. Also notable is a big jump in inventories to +4.1 from -22.2. Employment worsened to -8.7 from -6.7. The percentage of firms reporting employment decreases was 22% vs. those reporting increases at 14% - a number sure to cross the desk of the FOMC doves this morning. Treasurys have had a tough May, but they're bouncing today, TLT +1.2%. The leveraged bear ETF: TBT -2.4%. Stocks give up early gains (DIA -0.2%). 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Thursday, May 16, 8:38 AM SPY -0.3% premarket, giving up small early gains after a big jump in jobless claims and a rather shocking decline in housing starts. Starts were off 16.5% from March, but up 13.1% Y/Y. On a more hopeful note, building permits were up 14.3% from March, up 35.8% Y/Y. Treasurys catch a bid, TLT +0.5% premarket. Homebuilders ETF: XHB -0.2%. Comment!
- Wednesday, May 15, 3:40 PM More from Gundlach: Not concerned about inflation, he calls TIPS (TIP) "pretty bad" investments and says he'll be a buyer if the 10-year (TLT) yield bounces back to 2% (off 3 bps today to 1.94%). As for the inevitable Apple (AAPL -3.3%) question - he prefers the common stock to the just-issued bonds. Warren Buffett says he prays for stocks he owns to go down in price - it allows him and company repurchase programs to buy at better prices. Is Apple putting money to work the last couple of days? 15 Comments [Tech]
- Monday, May 13, 8:50 AM Stock index futures move to session highs following the big beat on retail sales, SPY -0.1% premarket. Excluding a 4.7% decline in gasoline sales, retail spending grew 0.6% in April. Bond prices continue their recent slide, the 10-year note off half of a point. The yield may challenge 2% today. TLT -0.9% premarket. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Friday, May 10, 10:35 AM Bill Gross (BOND) attempts to ring a bell, calling the 30-year bond bull market over as of April 29, 2013 (while pushing Pimco as the one to help navigate in this new world). The 30-year Treasury yield touched 2.8% at April's end. Including a 9 bp pop today, the yield now stands at 3.08%. TLT -1%, TBT +1.9%. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Thursday, May 9, 1:47 PM Massive doesn't begin to describe the move into the ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (UST) last Wednesday as the $12M AUM fund went to $833M overnight. It was accompanied by a 53% increase in the $3.75B iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI), suggesting someone (or ones) making a large bet targeting the middle of the Treasury curve. The moves came following FOMC minutes at which it indicated a readiness to increase QE as needed. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Thursday, May 9, 6:23 AM "Today government bonds should come with a warning about interest rate risk," a university fund manager tells FT, which says many university endowments have slashed their U.S. Treasury (TLT, TBT) holdings from as high as 30% of AUM during the crisis to as low as zero currently ("everyone" has less than 5%, one manager claims). Holding fast to larger allocations may require a fleetness of foot going forward in order to avoid capital losses if (or when) rates rise, a style of investing not suited to endowment managers. 1 Comment
- Wednesday, May 8, 12:29 PM "There is no safe haven in today's markets," says Paul Singer, speaking at the Ira Sohn conference, and blaming the distorting effects of QE. While not yet advocating shorting Treasurys (TLT, TBT), Singer says those long need to know they're trading at the wrong price, perhaps 50-100 basis points too low. 1 Comment [Breaking News, U.S. Economy]
- Monday, May 6, 3:29 PM This time is different for Treasurys (TLT, TBT)? "The Fed has been very transparent and their transparency should help offset the risks that were experienced in 1994," says JPMorgan's head of rates Edward Fitzpatrick. He's joined in this opinion by others who ought to know better, including Templeton's Michael Materasso and Vanguard's Gemma Wright-Casparius, all of whom attribute the 1994 rout to communication, not a crazed buildup in leverage. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Monday, May 6, 7:47 AM More Buffett/CNBC: "Bonds (AGG, BND, TLT) are priced artificially," he says, and investors in long-term paper stand to lose a terrific amount of money. It echos weekend comments where he told Omaha concert-goers, "I feel sorry for people that have clung to fixed-dollar investments." 15 Comments
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x oil -field
Outliers, Hindsight, And Reflation May 13 by: Michael A. Gayed $SPY $DIA $TLT http://bit.ly/12u4PBi http://bit.ly/10lDz9i SA - View all 3 replies
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x oil -field: MarketWatch: Fed looks to QE exit, investors react. http://bit.ly/19iMER8 $UUP http://bloom.bg/123XiZA Bloomberg
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x oil -field: $UUP Dollar Gains Versus Peers as U.S. Retail Sales $APP Unexpectedly Rise. http://bloom.bg/12u8GhO Bloomberg
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leopardtrader
Some simple facts to turn your trading to truly money making machine http://stks.co/gVJN $SPY $TLT - View all 0 replies
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bjamesh
$TLT, Bill Gross declares 30 yr bond bull market ended Apr.29/13. http://on.barrons.com/13payL4 - View all 0 replies
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inandoutnevertoolate
out of $UVXY at 6.02. Basically breakeven. Have to give up $TLT and VIX pointing towards rally. Still holding 163 puts. - View all 0 replies
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Ocean Man
Sold $TLT weekly $120 calls for a gain of 16% in 2 hours. $0.81 ---> $0.94. TLT went $120.35 ---> $120.64. http://seekingalpha.com/s/el1vt - View all 0 replies
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LATEST REPLIES
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x oil -field
Outliers, Hindsight, And Reflation May 13 by: Michael A. Gayed $SPY $DIA $TLT http://bit.ly/12u4PBi http://bit.ly/10lDz9i SA - View all 3 replies
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x oil -field: MarketWatch: Fed looks to QE exit, investors react. http://bit.ly/19iMER8 $UUP http://bloom.bg/123XiZA Bloomberg
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x oil -field: $UUP Dollar Gains Versus Peers as U.S. Retail Sales $APP Unexpectedly Rise. http://bloom.bg/12u8GhO Bloomberg
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neobliviscar: I wish it weren't so, as I flipped to bearish on Treasuries recently after being variably long them for a few years. Getting papercut. -
bd4uandu: I have been surprised PM's haven't been through the roof for a long time, years even.
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x oil -field
Forget About The Fed Dialing Back QE3 - Buy Bonds Apr 6 2013 by: Sy Harding. $TLT $XLF http://bit.ly/14Wuo2L - View all 43 replies
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x oil -field: EU is preparing to take the apparent non-template Cyprus bailout, and incorporate some elements into a new law that would force haircuts.
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x oil -field: EU to take apparent non-template Cyprus TBTJ bailout,and incorporate elements into new law that would force haircuts. http://bit.ly/17ldfis
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Kwimo
$TLT is doing well today, but long term "buy zone" is below recent lows, reset lower than last expectation: http://seekingalpha.com/s/c833f - View all 1 replies
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x oil -field: CNBC: According to the IEA, the shift of oil demand from the West to the East is now rapidly accelerating. $TNK http://bit.ly/10l7TD5
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utkant: AMSC on Oslo SX, with OSG profit share. Spot rates doubled where will fixed rates go. New rates in new monthly operating report/kccllc.com ?
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x oil -field
Correction Risks Fade? Mar 10 2013 by: Michael A. Gayed. $SPY $DIA $EEM $TLT $VGK http://bit.ly/10BCzQr - View all 7 replies
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x oil -field: Bloomberg: Dollar Approaches 3 1/2-Year High on U.S. Growth Pickup. $UUP http://bloom.bg/13R7wBa $XLF
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x oil -field: CNNMONEY:Online prediction betting site Intrade has shut down due to a probe of financial irregularities. http://cnnmon.ie/14MRmEC
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Kwimo: And his upside expections look good to me. Good going pollyserial! http://seekingalpha.com/s/blnyr
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pollyserial: I'm looking for 115 ish as a buy next week. This on the idea that this leg tops around 1520.
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Chris DeMuth Jr.: I hope that it works out well for you. If you want to read more about this topic, you might enjoy: http://seekingalpha.com/p/tu1l -
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DeepValueLover
Notice how the price of snacks have stayed roughly the same but there is less in the bag? THAT is hidden inflation $GLD $SLV $SPY $TLT - View all 2 replies
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FortSumter: Aint that the truth. For me it was the 1/2gal of ice cream no longer 1/2gal but 3/8 gal. Too wierd to ask for 3/8 gallon of ice cream. ;) -
Ghosts of Kariela: Not necessarily inflation, CPI shows nothing too shocking. Perhaps corn prices or company wanting to increase margins, too many variables.
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Derek Blain
$TLT, $TBT - hold on to your Treasury short/inverse positions. A break of 3.06% sets the stage for a swift move up to 3.50% - View all 1 replies
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Derek Blain: And we're off! $121 Jan puts up over 25% today, at $2.56. I'm expecting them to go to $4.50-$6.00 before the move is over.
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