Tue, Apr. 21, 3:54 PM
- The REITs are down about 8% from their January highs while the homebuilders have posted gains, bringing the ratio of homebuilders to REITs to long-term resistance, says MKM Partners' Jonathan Krinsky, who suggests fading the move.
- Most vulnerable to tactical pullbacks are those homebuilders/suppliers showing the weakest relative strength: Beazer Homes (NYSE:BZH), Lennar (NYSE:LEN), Louisiana-Pacific (NYSE:LPX), Taylor Morrisn (NYSE:TMHC), Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), and TRI Pointe Homes (NYSE:TPH).
- The best long REIT ideas are those showing the best relative strength: AvalonBay (NYSE:AVB), Crown Castle (NYSE:CCI), Essex Property (NYSE:ESS), Extra Space Storage (NYSE:EXR), Federal Realty (NYSE:FRT), General Growth (NYSE:GGP), SL Green (NYSE:SLG), and UDR.
- Those REITs showing poor relative strength or to be avoided or sold: American Tower (NYSE:AMT), American Realty Capital (NASDAQ:ARCP), Brixmor (NYSE:BRX), Host Hotels (NYSE:HST), and Omega Healthcare (NYSE:OHI).
- Source: Barron's
Wed, Feb. 4, 7:47 AM
- Q4 home closings of 1,967 up 35% Y/Y, with ASP of $491K up 16%. Home closings revenue of $966M up 56%. Adjusted home closings margins of 22% down 310 basis points.
- Net sales orders of 1,295 up 24%.
- Backlogs up 4% in units and 11% in value.
- Cancellations as a percentage of gross sales orders of 15.4%, 600 basis points better than last year.
- Mortgage operations gross profit of $16M on revenue of $35M.
- Outlook: 2015 home closings to be up slightly from 2014, with margins of about 22%.
- Earnings call at 8:30 ET
- Previously: Taylor Morrison beats by $0.01, misses on revenue (Feb. 4)
- TMHC flat premarket
Wed, Feb. 4, 7:07 AM
Tue, Feb. 3, 5:30 PM
Tue, Jan. 20, 9:43 AM
- Hovnanian (HOV -5%), M/I Homes (MHO -3.1%), and Taylor Morrison (TMHC -4.3%) are all cut at JMP Securities, with MHO and TMHC now Market Performs, and HOV now Underperform.
- Credit Suisse, meanwhile, also cuts Taylor Morrison. Alongside, the team downgrades Ryland Group (RYL -3.2%), Meritage Homes (MTH -3.4%), and PulteGroup (PHM -3.3%) to Underperform, noting margin declines (see KB Home and Lennar earnings) and a slowdown in Texas thanks to oil's plunge.
- There's one upgrade, and that's NVR (NVR), which is boosted to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Previously: KB Home: "Work to be done" to meet goals; -12.6% (Jan. 13)
- Previously: Lennar leads homebuilders lower after earnings (Jan. 15)
Dec. 31, 2014, 3:18 PM
- "We maintain our long-term view that companies with attractive geographic exposures should be outperformers combined with strong capital allocation and timing of land purchases," says analyst Eli Hackel, reiterating Lennar (LEN +1.6%) as a Conviction Buy, while also noting the recent strong momentum for KB Home (NYSE:KBH), Meritage (NYSE:MTH), and Taylor Morrison (NYSE:TMHC).
- While recent housing industry data has turned softer, long-term trends are intact, says Hackel, who - so far - sees little sign lower oil prices are impacting housing in Houston.
Dec. 17, 2014, 9:45 AM
- The sale of its Canadian operations should allow Taylor Morrison (TMHC +3.8%) to invest the proceeds into its core markets and maybe make an acquisition, says JMP Securities, which keeps its Outperform rating.
- Evercore ISI upgrades to Buy with $21 price target.
- Previously: Taylor Morrison selling Canadian operation (Dec. 16, 2014)
Dec. 16, 2014, 9:10 AM| Comment!
Nov. 18, 2014, 3:56 PM
- The IPO market remains hot - 344 companies have filed to go public so far this year, the most in a decade - but not so for homebuilders. After eight builders raised $1.77B issuing new shares in 2013 and 2014's first half - the first IPOs since 2004 - the momentum has faded as the pace of new home sales remains sluggish.
- “The public equity market right now is not an attractive place,” says Utah-based Woodside Homes chief Joel Shine. His company filed for an IPO in March, but instead decided to raise capital from existing investors and by issuing $50M of debt. The company in H1 posted sales roughly flat with that of a year ago.
- Of the eight builder stocks gone public sine 2013, five - TPH, CCS, WLH, UCP, TMHC - now trade for less than their IPO prices, while two - NWHM, WCIC - are modestly higher. Only one - LGI Homes (NASDAQ:LGIH) - has significantly outperformed the S&P 500.
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
Nov. 5, 2014, 7:05 AM
Aug. 5, 2014, 4:31 PM
May. 7, 2014, 7:14 AM
Mar. 10, 2014, 7:44 AM
- Keep an eye on the homebuilding sector today amid a number of downgrades from two separate sell-side teams.
- KB Home (KBH) suffers a two-notch downgrade to Underperform from Bank of America, which also cuts Meritage Homes (MTH) to Underperform.
- Citi, meanwhile, removes Buy ratings at D.R. Horton (DHI), New Home Company (NWHM), and Taylor Morrison (TMHC).
- Related ETFs: XHB, ITB
Feb. 12, 2014, 7:04 AM
Feb. 12, 2014, 12:05 AM
Feb. 11, 2014, 5:30 PM
TMHC vs. ETF Alternatives
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