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T-Mobile US, Inc.

5/25/2013, 9:06 PM ET

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Monday, May 20, 1:34 PM T-Mobile USA (TMUS +2.2%) hits new post-merger highs after catching an upgrade to Buy from Deutsche: the firm thinks the carrier's operating momentum "looks sustainable," and considers its valuation discount relative to peers "too wide" even if adjusting for "accounting differences and some strategic uncertainty." UBS upgraded shares a week ago - they're up 25% since T-Mobile and MetroPCS began trading as a combined entity on May 1. Comment! [Tech, On the Move]
Saturday, May 18, 6:23 PM 32% of Q1 U.S. smartphone sales involved prepaid phones, up from 21% a year ago, says NPD. That trend could spell trouble for AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless (VZ, VOD), whose recent growth has been heavily tied to selling costly postpaid data plans. With 72% and 61% of the carriers' postpaid bases now respectively on smartphones, they face pressure to gain prepaid buyers without cannibalizing postpaid subs. Cannibalization fears have led AT&T and Verizon to make their prepaid plans 3G-only; Sprint (S) and T-Mobile (TMUS) offer 4G. A mix shift towards unsubsidized prepaid phones could also be a challenge for Apple (AAPL), estimated to have just 8% of the Q1 U.S. prepaid smartphone market (though that's up 4x Y/Y). 16 Comments [Tech]
Friday, May 17, 9:10 AM Leap Wireless (LEAP) -2.5% after Barclays starts coverage with an Underweight and $4 PT as part of a broader coverage launch of U.S. telecom service providers. Tower owners SBA (SBAC) and American Tower (AMT) have been started at Overweight, and so has Verizon (VZ). AT&T (T) and T-Mobile USA (TMUS) have been started at Equal Weight. Comment! [Tech, On the Move]
Thursday, May 16, 11:07 AM Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY.PK) can sell its 74% stake in T-Mobile USA (TMUS +2.5%) prior to the end of an 18-month lockup period if it receives a buyout offer for the entire stake, says CFO Timotheus Hoettges. The comments seem to be giving a lift to the #4 U.S. carrier. T-Mobile CFO Braxton Carter recently stated his company wanted to extend the footprint of the MetroPCS brand by ~100M POPs over the next 6 quarters. T-Mobile is counting on 4G support to give MetroPCS an edge over prepaid rivals such as Leap (LEAP) and AT&T's 3G-only Aio prepaid service. 1 Comment [Tech, M&A]
Tuesday, May 14, 9:27 AM The Lumia 925 (NOK) is officially revealed. Thanks to its aluminum frame, it's ~50g lighter than the 920, and ~30g lighter than the 928. Otherwise, the specs resemble the 928's: a 4.5," 1280x768, OLED display, a dual-core, 1.5 GHz., Qualcomm (QCOM) processor, and an 8.7MP camera with optical image stabilization. There's no xenon flash, but there is an advanced camera app that leverages Scalado. Nokia will be charging a steep unsubsidized price of €469 ($609) when the 925 hits China and Europe this June. But T-Mobile USA (TMUS) is expected to sell it for less than $100 subsidized. Shares -5%. Were investors expecting a 41MP sensor PureView phone? 26 Comments [Tech, On the Move]
Monday, May 13, 6:30 PM Apple (AAPL) roundup: 1) Jefferies' Peter Misek, fairly plugged in to supply chain movements, thinks June quarter iPad build plans have been raised to 20M-25M, and that iPhone build plans stand at 25M-30M. 2H build order pickups are forecast for both as new hardware launches. 2) Brian White's Apple Monitor (tracks supplier sales) also indicates stabilizing orders - April sales rose 1% M/M, slightly better than a -1% historical average (possibly good news for CRUS). 3) T-Mobile USA (TMUS) has raised the down payment for a 16GB iPhone 5 by $50 to $149, bringing the total 24-month cost to $630. 2 Comments [Tech]
Monday, May 13, 11:15 AM UBS upgrades T-Mobile USA (TMUS +3.7%) to Buy and hikes its PT to $24, arguing the #4 U.S. carrier is near an inflection point and should see growing postpaid net adds (after many quarters of losses). T-Mobile, which just began selling the iPhone, lost 199K postpaid subs in Q1, prior to its merger with MetroPCS (which has also been losing subs). Comment! [Tech, On the Move]
Wednesday, May 8, 10:31 AM T-Mobile USA (TMUS +0.2%) has sold 500K iPhone 5 (AAPL +1.1%) units since it began sales on April 12. That's a solid start for the low-end carrier, whose decision to sell the iPhone unsubsidized (with installment plans) could have big industry implications if it goes well. The info was provided in T-Mobile's Q1 report (exc. MetroPCS), which otherwise was ho-hum. 579K customers were added, and branded customers rose for the first time in 15 quarters. But 199K more postpaid subs were lost, service revenue fell 9.9% Y/Y, and adjusted EBITDA fell 7.5% to $1.2B. Branded prepaid ARPU +11% to $28.25, but branded postpaid ARPU -6% to $54.07. 3 Comments [Tech, Earnings]
Wednesday, May 1, 10:42 AM T-Mobile USA (TMUS) opened for trading at $16.25 and is currently at $16.59. In a PR announcing the completion of the MetroPCS (PCS) merger and the creation of a new ticker, T-Mobile states the combined company had 43M subs at the end of Q1. 2012 revenue was $24.8B, free cash flow was $2.7B, and capex (exc. spectrum purchases) was $3.7B. It's targeting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 3%-5% and a free cash flow CAGR of 15%-20%, but for that to happen, the major sub losses T-Mobile and MetroPCS have been seeing as independent carriers (I, II) will have to end. (previous) Comment! [Tech]
Wednesday, May 1, 4:34 AM After wrapping up its merger with MetroPCS (PCS), T-Mobile USA is set to make its debut on the NYSE today under the ticker symbol TMUS. The stock should trade between $15-16 per share based on the cash payment to PCS shareholders and a capital injection from parent company Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY.PK). Investors should exercise caution however, one analyst told Bloomberg, as "stocks can do strange things around events like this." Comment! [Tech, M&A]
Tuesday, April 30, 5:31 PM Pres. Obama is expected to nominate Tom Wheeler, a former CEO for both the cable and mobile phone industry's top trade groups (the NCTA and CTIA), to be the next head of the FCC, the WSJ reports. Given Wheeler's background and the fact he supported the AT&T/T-Mobile merger (shot down in part by the outgoing Julius Genachowski), albeit on grounds it would give the FCC a chance to impose new regulations, AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) might be happier with this report than Sprint (S) and MetroPCS (PCS). If Wheeler gets the job, he'll arrive ahead of a major spectrum auction whose rules are still being hotly debated. 2 Comments [Tech]
Monday, April 29, 9:55 AM Leap Wireless (LEAP -5.1%) tumbles after JPMorgan's Philip Cusick downgrades shares to Underweight 6 months after cutting shares to Neutral. "The company's mostly 3G-level products and network seem more and more commoditized as MVNOs get more aggressive," writes Cusick, who worries Leap a 4G transition will require heavy capex. He also expects T-Mobile USA to bring the MetroPCS (PCS -0.3%) brand to many Leap markets by year's end. Leap, long propped up by M&A hopes, delivers its Q1 report tomorrow afternoon. Also: Morgan Stanley has resumed coverage on MetroPCS with an Equal-Weight. Comment! [Tech, On the Move, Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, April 24, 6:45 PM MetroPCS (PCS): Q1 EPS of $0.05 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $1.3B beats by $0.01B. (PR) Comment! [Earnings, Breaking News, Tech]
Wednesday, April 24, 5:46 PM S&P announces some changes to its index lineup today: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) will join the S&P 500, replacing MetroPCS (PCS) which is being acquired by T-Mobile USA. S&P SmallCap 600 constituent Eagle Materials (EXP) will replace REGN in the S&P MidCap 400, and Francesca's Holdings (FRAN) will replace Eagle Materials in the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close of trading on Tuesday, April 30. 1 Comment [Healthcare, Tech, Commodities, Consumer]
Wednesday, April 24, 10:54 AM MetroPCS (PCS -1.1%) shareholders approve the company's merger with T-Mobile USA (DTEGY.PK). The approval was widely expected after the most high-profile opponents of Deutsche Telekom's initial offer terms - major shareholders Paulson & Co. and Schoenfeld Asset Management, and advisory firm ISS - all gave a thumbs-up to Deutsche's revised offer. Now comes the hard part: getting two low-end carriers who have been steadily losing share to Verizon/AT&T to reverse their fortunes as a joint entity. Quite a lot hinges on how T-Mobile's new subsidy-free plans are received. 2 Comments [Tech, M&A]
Monday, April 15, 5:00 PM If Dish (DISH -2.3%) fails to buy Sprint (S +13.8%), it will have "few other attractive options" in mobile, points out TownHall Research: it thinks Dish's mobile efforts could be delayed by a over a year if Sprint turns it down. FBR notes Sprint, Dish, and Clearwire (CLWR -3.2%) have a combined $45B in debt, and predicts a higher bid from SoftBank (SFTBF.PK), whose scale and ability to reposition Sprint remain selling points. With Charlie Ergen saying Dish wants to differentiate its offerings via integrated services rather than pricing, rivals (T, VZ, PCS) are likely hoping Dish beats out SoftBank, which many believe plans to launch a price war. (more) 4 Comments [Tech, M&A, Quick Ideas]

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