- TMUS reported strong postpaid net ads in fourth quarter.
- GOOG decides to enter into MVNO arrangement with TMUS and S.
- MVNO arrangement will help TMUS increase its future revenues.
- TMUS shares have rallied strongly since hitting lows in December.
- Fundamental weaknesses in its balance sheet and financials are overlooked.
- Flaws of TMUS's aggressive strategy and 'Uncarrier' model are not given enough attention.
- Expectation of increased profitability due to glut of new subscribers is exaggerated.
Update: T-Mobile Adds More Subscribers In Q4 Without Adding Value
- T-Mobile released solid Q4 customer additions.
- The stock remains a Sell.
- The data released by T-Mobile doesn't change the ongoing investment thesis that the stock must be avoided until aggressive pricing stops hitting earnings.
- T-Mobile looks to boost ARPU with Data Stash's minimum 3GB+ requirement and looks to upsell entry level users higher to attain the value features.
- With only a 1GB threshold tablet plan minimum, Data Stash can complement tablet promotions to drive 2015 tablet net additions.
- With the new crop of new prime customers switching to T-Mobile for value, Data Stash is another value feature that can be used for subscriber retention.
T-Mobile Subscriber Momentum Expected To Continue As ARPU Becomes Pressurized
- Company has done well in competitive environment and has managed to build solid subscriber momentum in the third quarter.
- Growth expected to continue in future due its competitive pricing and industry-best 4G LTE speeds.
- ARPU to be pressurized in the future due to aggressive pricing, which limits management’s ability to expand margins.
iPhone 6: T-Mobile Brings Exciting Cyber Monday Deals
- T-Mobile continues making impressive progress in growing the customer base.
- The lack of focus on the bottom line is a red flag to investors.
- As long as the 2015 EPS trend is down, investors must avoid the stock.
- Healthy growth in postpaid subscriber base due to luring subscribers with attractive pricing offers and Un-carrier strategies.
- Company has favorable growth prospects lined up to grow subscriber base and fuel top-line numbers.
- TMUS all geared up to expand margins and add towards growth of bottom-line numbers.
Update: T-Mobile Q3 Earnings - And The Momentum ContinuesSoid Ahmad • Oct. 29, 2014
- T-Mobile added 2.3 million postpaid customers surpassing AT&T’s and Verizon’s net additions for the third quarter. Revenue was almost in-line but the company missed EPS estimate, thanks to the aggressive pricing strategy.
- I maintain the $39 price target amid continuing subscriber momentum.
- The previous piece clearly mentioned that T-Mobile will continue to add subscribers amid un-carrier incentives. However, any strategy to improve ARPU can hurt subscriber growth during the next year.
T-Mobile Q3 Earnings: Are Investors 'Getting More'?
- T-Mobile is still small compared to competitors T and VZ.
- Financials are booming for the smaller telecommunications company relative to giants.
- Though seeing volatility today, low stock price may indicate a good time to get involved in the company.
- Iliad ends pursuit of acquiring a large position in T-Mobile.
- Investors should dump the stock.
- The original article anticipated that a positive outcome wasn't likely for a T-Mobile sell as time passed due to the ongoing price wars in the domestic wireless market.
- Company posted record number of gross ads in August.
- Postpaid ARPU and churn rate don’t paint encouraging outlook for company.
- The company announced its new initiative with free WiFi calling and text messages.
- TMUS retains attractiveness for M&A activity.
T-Mobile: Still The Best Stock For Growth In Telecoms
- This 4th place wireless telecom is making a serious move for third place.
- There’s still a potential for a buyout, but there’s more upside if the company goes at it alone.
- Shares are down 20% from their 52-week highs from just four months ago and looks to be a buying opportunity.
Strategic Initiatives And Un-Carrier Strategies Key To Earning T-Mobile A Bullish ThesisEquity Watch • Sep. 22, 2014
- Company doing well by expanding postpaid subscriber base through ongoing strategic initiatives.
- Stays well on track to improving postpaid subscriber growth and competitive position in industry.
- Company likely to benefit from attractive pricing for iPhone 6 and 6 Plus.
T-Mobile: Organic Growth, Acquisitive Potential Justifies A 25% Upside
- T-Mobile continues to add subscribers due to aggressive pricing plans like Simple Choice.
- There is evidence of network quality improvement, and the company is further investing in airwaves.
- Going forward, T-Mobile is planning to maintain subscriber momentum through differentiated offerings that will result in stable ARPU.
- Price target is upgraded to $39 amid organic growth prospects and acquisitive potential of T-Mobile.
- T-Mobile announced record branded customer additions.
- Stock remains a short-term buy based on subscriber momentum.
- Subscriber additions were anticipated to help T-Mobile bounce back, but long-term issues loom with plunging earnings estimates.
- Deutsche Telekom lowered the hurdle for buying T-Mobile.
- The potential acquirers face debt concerns, especially if Deutsche Telekom still wants mostly cash.
- Domestic wireless war is likely pressuring Deutsche Telekom to exit via a lower offer.
- Although a Sprint deal is off the table, there's still other suitors.
- There's a motivated seller in T-Mobile's parent company.
- And there's plenty of value in T-Mobile's business model given its industry-changing initiatives.
Sep. 19, 2014, 2:22 PM
- Iliad's (OTC:ILIAF) talks with KKR and other investment firms to make a joint bid for T-Mobile USA (TMUS -1%) haven't yet borne fruit, Bloomberg reports. The French carrier's $33/share bid for a 56.6% stake was shot down last month.
- Meanwhile, Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY), recently reported to be open to a $35/share offer for T-Mobile USA, is said to be split on whether it should "sell its only growing asset."
- Bloomberg adds Iliad has "discussed raising as much as $5 billion in additional debt and equity for a sweetened offer." Likely acting as a hurdle: T-Mobile, which has over $17B in debt, is investing heavily to build out its 4G network and grow its spectrum portfolio, and is sacrificing margins to gain share, isn't a conventional P-E target.
- Prior T-Mobile/Iliad coverage
Sep. 12, 2014, 11:46 AM
- T-Mobile US (TMUS +1.7%) added 552K postpaid customers in August, more customer additions than any other month in the company's history, and added 208K prepaid customers, CEO John Legere tells investors at the Goldman Conference in NYC.
- The wave of new subscribers was in part due to the popularity of a promotion that allows customers to add four lines for $100/month, Legere says.
- Earlier, Argus upgraded shares to Buy from Hold with a $40 price target, saying a series of innovative plans promoted with razzle-dazzle marketing is gaining traction with subscribers; the firm also expects the latest TMUS offer, which facilitates Wi-Fi communications and interoperability with the cellular network, to resonate with subscribers.
Sep. 11, 2014, 2:22 AM
- T-Mobile (NYSE:TMUS) will provide in-home Wi-Fi antennas called T-Mobile Personal CellSpots for free, enabling phones to now make calls and send texts over Wi-Fi.
- The new device is in response to many customer complaints of dropped calls in homes and buildings. Until recently, the carrier held very little low-frequency airwaves which are best for penetrating walls.
Sep. 10, 2014, 6:45 PM| Comment!
Sep. 8, 2014, 6:24 PM
- T-Mobile US (NYSE:TMUS) says beginning Sept. 17 it will beat other wireless companies’ offers for smartphone trade-ins, in an attempt to attract customers who want to exchange their phones for devices such as Apple’s new iPhone.
- TMUS says it will track the market for trade-ins to make sure its prices are better; if a customer finds a better offer from a national competitor, the company will top it and give the user an additional $50.
- “We’re going to see some of the most phenomenal devices ever in the coming months, and that means a whole lot of Americans trading in their devices and upgrading,” TMUS CEO John Legere says.
Sep. 5, 2014, 4:35 PM
- Dish (DISH +0.9%) CEO Charlie Ergen contacted Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY) to let the carrier know he's interested in a deal to buy T-Mobile USA (TMUS +1.3%), sources tell Bloomberg. T-Mobile spiked shortly before the close on the report.
- Ergen hasn't been shy about making his interest in T-Mobile public, as Dish continues looking for ways to put its 4G spectrum to use. Sources caution Dish hasn't yet hired a bank to help pursue a bid, and that its seriousness is unclear.
- Bloomberg reported last week DT is open to a T-Mobile deal at $35/share. French carrier Iliad is trying to partner with P-E firms to sweeten its T-Mobile bid, after an initial $33/share offer for a 56.6% stake was rebuffed.
Sep. 3, 2014, 4:12 PM
- T-Mobile (TMUS +0.2%) is selling senior notes due 2023 and 2025. The offering's size and pricing are undisclosed for now.
- The self-proclaimed Un-carrier says proceeds will be used for "general corporate purposes, which may include capital investments, acquisition of additional spectrum and repayment of certain indebtedness."
- The offering's prospectus suggests at least some of the funds will be used at a November auction for spectrum in the high-frequency AWS-3 band. A bigger auction for low-frequency spectrum (badly sought by T-Mobile and Sprint to improve their rural/suburban coverage) is due next year.
- T-Mobile had $17.1B in debt as of June 30, and $3.1B in cash.
Sep. 1, 2014, 7:18 AM
- Despite its first bid at T-Mobile USA (NYSE:TMUS) being rebuffed, Iliad (OTC:ILIAF) says it is continuing to pursue a 56.6% stake of the mobile operator, and may now even partner with private equity funds to raise its offer.
- Iliad previously offered a bid of $33/share, although T-Mobile USA called the offer "a very inadequate value proposition."
- A report from Bloomberg last week announced that parent Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY) is open to holding talks to sell T-Mobile USA for $35/share or more.
Aug. 28, 2014, 1:03 PM
- Bloomberg reports Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY) is open to holding talks to sell T-Mobile USA (TMUS +2.1%) at $35/share or more. T-Mobile has risen above $30 in response.
- DT owns 67% of T-Mobile USA. French carrier Iliad (OTC:ILIAF) has offered $33/share for a 56.6% stake in T-Mobile, a bid T-Mobile has dismissed as "very inadequate."
- Sprint was rumored to be prepping a $40/share bid before abandoning its plans due to regulatory opposition.
Aug. 21, 2014, 1:31 PM
- Three days after launching new shared data plans (along with big short-term promotions), Sprint (S +1%) has rolled out a $60/month individual plan that provides unlimited data to go with unlimited voice/text. Like the shared data plans, Sprint's offering requires users to forgo smartphone subsidies.
- Sprint notes the individual plan is $20/month cheaper than a comparable T-Mobile (TMUS -1.1%) unlimited plan. For $60/month, T-Mobile offers individuals 3GB of data to go with unlimited voice/text. AT&T and Verizon don't offer unlimited data.
- Meanwhile, in a PR titled "T-Mobile Urges Its Customers to Rescue Sprint Customers," T-Mobile states it will give both a new customer and an existing customer unlimited data for a year, when the latter gets the former to sign up. Those already on unlimited plans will get $10/month in credit for 12 months.
- Sprint lost 181K core platform postpaid subs in Q2, while T-Mobile (aided by aggressive pricing and promotions) posted 908K branded postpaid net adds. Sprint shares are down 23% since reports emerged on Aug. 5 the carrier is abandoning its efforts to acquire T-Mobile.
Aug. 18, 2014, 7:19 PM
- After recently promising big price cuts, Sprint (NYSE:S) has launched Family Share Packs, a pricing scheme that bears a strong resemblance to AT&T and Verizon's subsidy-free shared data plans. Unlike regular Framily plans, there's no drop in per-line charges upon adding new members.
- Sprint argues its pricing sharply undercuts rivals. For example, a family sharing 20GB between four lines would pay $160/month, less than the $210/month charged by AT&T and Verizon for similar plans, and the $180/month charged by T-Mobile (NYSE:TMUS) for a plan featuring 5GB/line for four lines.
- However, Sprint fails to undercut T-Mobile among families requiring less data. With Sprint charging an extra $10/month per line to those buying a bucket smaller than 20GB, an 8GB bucket costs $170/month to a family of four, and a 4GB bucket $140/month. By contrast, a $140/month T-Mobile plan provides 12GB (3GB/line) to a family of four.
- At the same time, Sprint is following T-Mobile's lead in offering aggressive short-term promotions: Until the end of September, the carrier is waiving $15/month access line charges through 2015 for families buying plans with 20GB or larger buckets, and is also throwing in an extra 2GB/line.
Aug. 13, 2014, 6:37 PM
- Iliad's (OTC:ILIAF) $33/share offer to buy a 56.6% stake in T-Mobile USA (TMUS -1.6%) is "very flattering," but also "a very inadequate value proposition," says T-Mobile CFO Braxton Carter.
- However, Carter, whose company just saw Sprint abandon its attempt to buy it (for now) due to FCC/DOJ opposition, suggests T-Mobile is open to a better offer. "I think rarely people come with their best bid to start."
- For the time being, Iliad insists there's no need for a higher offer - T-Mobile currently trades at $29.14. But the French carrier has been reported to be reaching out to potential investors to sweeten its bid.
- Dish Network (DISH +1%) is also viewed as a potential T-Mobile suitor. Dish is still trying to find a use for its spectrum assets, and Charlie Ergen has repeatedly suggested he's open to a T-Mobile merger. But there are doubts about Dish's ability to pull off a deal, given both Dish and T-Mobile have plenty of high-yield debt on their balance sheets.
Aug. 7, 2014, 5:36 AM
- T-Mobile USA's (NYSE:TMUS) parent, Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY), has confirmed that it currently has no offer for T-Mobile USA which would boost the No.4 U.S. telecom provider's position.
- "We have always said that we would be open to offers for T-Mobile US which would improve its position and that of its shareholders," announces Deutsche Telekom CEO Tim Hoettges. "At the moment we don't have an offer which fits those criteria."
Aug. 6, 2014, 9:14 AM
Aug. 5, 2014, 6:58 PM
- The WSJ reports Sprint (NYSE:S) is abandoning its bid to acquire T-Mobile USA (NYSE:TMUS) due to excessive regulatory hurdles.
- There were already many doubts about the ability of a Sprint/T-Mobile deal to pass muster with regulators.
- If Sprint is out of the picture, the coast is clear for Iliad (OTC:ILIAF) to pursue T-Mobile, provided financing isn't an issue. There were multiple reports earlier today indicating T-Mobile is rejecting Iliad's initial $33/share offer for a 56.6% stake.
- TMUS -5.6% AH
- Related tickers: OTCQX:DTEGY, OTCPK:SFTBF
Aug. 5, 2014, 3:59 PM
- The WSJ reports T-Mobile USA (TMUS +0.8%) has rejected Iliad's (OTC:ILIAF) request for access to its books, and won't change its mind in the absence of a better bid. The FT reports a formal rejection of Iliad's $33/share offer for a 56.6% stake in T-Mobile could arrive tomorrow.
- As it is, Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY) was reported to have liked Sprint's (S -1.4%) offer better. Sprint and parent SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBF) are rumored to be offering ~$40/share, but their bid also carries much more regulatory risk.
- Reuters reports Iliad is talking with investors for help in sweetening its offer. Sources state the carrier has engaged pay-TV providers Dish , Cox, and Charter, as well as infrastructure, pension, and sovereign wealth funds.
- The news service adds DT is (not surprisingly) skeptical about Iliad's claim a merger between a French carrier and a U.S. carrier will yield $10B in synergies.
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