- TMUS reported strong postpaid net ads in fourth quarter.
- GOOG decides to enter into MVNO arrangement with TMUS and S.
- MVNO arrangement will help TMUS increase its future revenues.
- TMUS shares have rallied strongly since hitting lows in December.
- Fundamental weaknesses in its balance sheet and financials are overlooked.
- Flaws of TMUS's aggressive strategy and 'Uncarrier' model are not given enough attention.
- Expectation of increased profitability due to glut of new subscribers is exaggerated.
Update: T-Mobile Adds More Subscribers In Q4 Without Adding Value
- T-Mobile released solid Q4 customer additions.
- The stock remains a Sell.
- The data released by T-Mobile doesn't change the ongoing investment thesis that the stock must be avoided until aggressive pricing stops hitting earnings.
- T-Mobile looks to boost ARPU with Data Stash's minimum 3GB+ requirement and looks to upsell entry level users higher to attain the value features.
- With only a 1GB threshold tablet plan minimum, Data Stash can complement tablet promotions to drive 2015 tablet net additions.
- With the new crop of new prime customers switching to T-Mobile for value, Data Stash is another value feature that can be used for subscriber retention.
T-Mobile Subscriber Momentum Expected To Continue As ARPU Becomes Pressurized
- Company has done well in competitive environment and has managed to build solid subscriber momentum in the third quarter.
- Growth expected to continue in future due its competitive pricing and industry-best 4G LTE speeds.
- ARPU to be pressurized in the future due to aggressive pricing, which limits management’s ability to expand margins.
iPhone 6: T-Mobile Brings Exciting Cyber Monday Deals
- T-Mobile continues making impressive progress in growing the customer base.
- The lack of focus on the bottom line is a red flag to investors.
- As long as the 2015 EPS trend is down, investors must avoid the stock.
- Healthy growth in postpaid subscriber base due to luring subscribers with attractive pricing offers and Un-carrier strategies.
- Company has favorable growth prospects lined up to grow subscriber base and fuel top-line numbers.
- TMUS all geared up to expand margins and add towards growth of bottom-line numbers.
Update: T-Mobile Q3 Earnings - And The Momentum ContinuesSoid Ahmad • Oct. 29, 2014
- T-Mobile added 2.3 million postpaid customers surpassing AT&T’s and Verizon’s net additions for the third quarter. Revenue was almost in-line but the company missed EPS estimate, thanks to the aggressive pricing strategy.
- I maintain the $39 price target amid continuing subscriber momentum.
- The previous piece clearly mentioned that T-Mobile will continue to add subscribers amid un-carrier incentives. However, any strategy to improve ARPU can hurt subscriber growth during the next year.
T-Mobile Q3 Earnings: Are Investors 'Getting More'?
- T-Mobile is still small compared to competitors T and VZ.
- Financials are booming for the smaller telecommunications company relative to giants.
- Though seeing volatility today, low stock price may indicate a good time to get involved in the company.
- Iliad ends pursuit of acquiring a large position in T-Mobile.
- Investors should dump the stock.
- The original article anticipated that a positive outcome wasn't likely for a T-Mobile sell as time passed due to the ongoing price wars in the domestic wireless market.
- Company posted record number of gross ads in August.
- Postpaid ARPU and churn rate don’t paint encouraging outlook for company.
- The company announced its new initiative with free WiFi calling and text messages.
- TMUS retains attractiveness for M&A activity.
T-Mobile: Still The Best Stock For Growth In Telecoms
- This 4th place wireless telecom is making a serious move for third place.
- There’s still a potential for a buyout, but there’s more upside if the company goes at it alone.
- Shares are down 20% from their 52-week highs from just four months ago and looks to be a buying opportunity.
Strategic Initiatives And Un-Carrier Strategies Key To Earning T-Mobile A Bullish ThesisEquity Watch • Sep. 22, 2014
- Company doing well by expanding postpaid subscriber base through ongoing strategic initiatives.
- Stays well on track to improving postpaid subscriber growth and competitive position in industry.
- Company likely to benefit from attractive pricing for iPhone 6 and 6 Plus.
T-Mobile: Organic Growth, Acquisitive Potential Justifies A 25% Upside
- T-Mobile continues to add subscribers due to aggressive pricing plans like Simple Choice.
- There is evidence of network quality improvement, and the company is further investing in airwaves.
- Going forward, T-Mobile is planning to maintain subscriber momentum through differentiated offerings that will result in stable ARPU.
- Price target is upgraded to $39 amid organic growth prospects and acquisitive potential of T-Mobile.
- T-Mobile announced record branded customer additions.
- Stock remains a short-term buy based on subscriber momentum.
- Subscriber additions were anticipated to help T-Mobile bounce back, but long-term issues loom with plunging earnings estimates.
- Deutsche Telekom lowered the hurdle for buying T-Mobile.
- The potential acquirers face debt concerns, especially if Deutsche Telekom still wants mostly cash.
- Domestic wireless war is likely pressuring Deutsche Telekom to exit via a lower offer.
- Although a Sprint deal is off the table, there's still other suitors.
- There's a motivated seller in T-Mobile's parent company.
- And there's plenty of value in T-Mobile's business model given its industry-changing initiatives.
Tue, Jan. 20, 11:28 AM
- Believing T-Mobile (TMUS +1.4%) will see "an inflection to positive and rapidly growing [free cash flow] in 2015," Goldman's Brett Feldman has upgraded the Un-Carrier to Conviction Buy from Neutral, and hiked its target by $10 to $37.
- Feldman also thinks T-Mobile will provide strong 2015 EBITDA guidance, thanks to slowing expense growth and higher MetroPCS synergies. He forecasts 2015 EBITDA of $7.7B (above a $7.09B consensus), and has upped his 2015 net postpaid subscriber add estimate by 500K to 3.5M (implies further share gains).
- Meanwhile, in comments that might be aimed at U.S. politicians and regulators more than investors, Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY) CEO Tim Hoettges insists T-Mobile's current approach isn't sustainable, and that a merger is the U.S. subsidiary's best long-term hope for achieving needed scale. "I was intrigued by the idea of having a combination with Sprint and being the ‘super-maverick’ in the market. I hope that the political environment will change at one point in time."
- T-Mobile and (especially) Sprint plunged last year after Sprint abandoned its merger efforts in the face of FCC/DOJ opposition. T-Mobile's recent postpaid share gains likely influenced regulatory thinking.
Sun, Jan. 18, 12:57 PM
- TechCrunch reports Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) is interested in acquiring Softcard, the mobile payments platform launched by AT&T (NYSE:T), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), and T-Mobile (NYSE:TMUS) in 2010 - it was previously known as Isis, before changing its name for obvious reasons. Though Softcard's owners have invested hundreds of millions in the venture, sources state Google's purchase price could be below $100M.
- Like Apple Pay and Google Wallet, Softcard relies on NFC radios to enable transactions. And like Wallet, it has struggled to get off the ground, as U.S. consumers overwhelmingly stick with card swipes. Hard data on Apple Pay usage remains limited for now.
- Softcard recently laid off 60 employees. Meanwhile, it was reported in 2013 that Google had spent $300M on Wallet-related acquisitions, with little to show for it. The adoption of EMV (chip-and-PIN) readers by U.S. retailers could give NFC solutions a boost, by making card payments a little less convenient.
- The WSJ reports Google is partnering with consulting giant PwC to bid on a $2B+ contract to update the DoD's electronic health records system. PwC says Google's tools could both improve the system's security and performance, and lower costs. A group featuring IBM, HP (NYSE:HPQ), and CSC has made a rival bid.
- Ad tech firm Marin Software (NYSE:MRIN) provides some encouraging mobile search data ahead of Google's Jan. 29 Q4 report. A Marin study found mobile accounted for 49% of Q4 U.S. search ad spend, up from 42% in Q3, and that smartphone ad click rates were 38% higher than PC rates (thanks in part to accidental clicks?). On the other hand, mobile still only accounted for 32% of conversions.
- Medium writer Backchannel provides a deep dive into Google Search's evolution in an era where users increasingly want search engines to know the precise meaning of their queries. Part 1 looks at Google's efforts to optimize for mobile (aided by its Knowledge Graph and Google Now). Part 2 looks at Google's real-world research into the information needs of users. Part 3 looks at Google's investments in A.I./deep learning to deliver far more intelligent search results and spontaneously surface useful information.
Oct. 24, 2014, 6:58 PM
- Thanks in large part to a 41% increase in taxes, America Movil's (AMX -0.9%) Q3 net income fell 39% Y/Y to 10.1B pesos ($746M). EBITDA (adjusted for the Telekom Austria deal) rose 0.4% to 69.2B pesos ($5.1B).
- On an adjusted basis, service revenue rose 3.8% to 198.6B pesos ($14.6B), a slight improvement from Q2's 3.6% growth. Equipment revenue rose 6.2% to 22.2B pesos ($1.6B), and costs/expenses 5.8% to 151.7B pesos ($11.2B).
- Total wireless lines +0.1% Q/Q and +0.5% Y/Y to 286.8M. Mexican lines fell 1.1% Q/Q to 70.5M amid regulatory pressure, but Brazilian lines rose 1.3% to 69.6M, and U.S. lines (via TracFone's prepaid services)1.5% to 25.9M.
- Wireline revenue-generating units (RGUs) rose 1.8% Q/Q and 6.8% Y/Y to 77.6M. Mexican RGUs fell 0.1% Q/Q to 22.2M, while Brazilian RGUs rose 3.1% to 35.6M (~46% of total RGUs).
- Net debt fell by $2.3B during the quarter to $36.2B.
- AMX used its Q3 CC to state its isn't currently talking to anyone about a T-Mobile USA (TMUS +1.3%) acquisition. A German magazine speculated yesterday (while reporting Deutsche Telekom is still open to a T-Mobile sale) AMX could bid for T-Mobile.
- Earnings Release (.pdf)
Oct. 23, 2014, 10:40 AM
- Though it rejected Iliad's overtures, Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY) is still trying to find a suitor for T-Mobile USA (TMUS +2.7%), Germany's Manager Magazin reports.
- The magazine speculates America Movil (AMX +0.8%), which no longer counts AT&T as an investor, could make a bid. For now, Carlos Slim's carrier only operates in the U.S. through its TracFone Wireless prepaid MVNO.
- AMX is also about to get a windfall from the sale of Mexican assets being unloaded to appease regulators.
Oct. 13, 2014, 1:26 PM
- France's Iliad (OTC:ILIAF) has abandoned its bid to acquire T-Mobile USA (TMUS -3.6%). T-Mobile has fallen sharply on the news.
- Bloomberg previously reported Iliad had set a mid-October deadline to up its initial (rejected) offer for T-Mobile, or walk away. Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY) was believed to be skeptical about Iliad's ability to run T-Mobile, and also nervous about selling one of its few growth assets.
- Update: Iliad says it abandoned its bid after Deutsche Telekom and certain T-Mobile board members "refused to entertain" an offer for a 67% stake (up from a prior 56.6%).
Oct. 2, 2014, 1:53 PM
- Sources tell Bloomberg Iliad's (OTC:ILIAF) revised offer for T-Mobile USA (TMUS +3%) would involve taking a "significantly larger stake" than its previous offer of 56.6%. However, its $33/share offer price would remain unchanged.
- Parent Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY), reportedly open to a $35/share deal, is said to be undecided on whether Iliad's revised offer would be adequate.
- Notably, Bloomberg adds Iliad has "had some success signing up financial partners to back its efforts." The company has reportedly discussed raising as much as $5B in stock and debt for an improved bid.
- T-Mobile has added to its gains, and is nearing $29.
- Earlier: Iliad reportedly prepping bigger offer for T-Mobile
Oct. 2, 2014, 1:21 PM
- Bloomberg reports Iliad (OTC:ILIAF) is prepping an offer that would involve the French carrier acquiring a larger T-Mobile USA (TMUS +1.4%) stake. Iliad previously made a rejected $33/share offer for a 56.6% stake.
- Iliad is believed to have set a mid-October deadline for upping its T-Mobile bid or walking away, and has made outreaches to P-E firms. T-Mobile parent Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY) is reportedly wary of Iliad's overtures.
- T-Mobile has caught a bid on the report. However, shares remain well below Iliad's original offer price.
Sep. 26, 2014, 4:00 PM
- Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY) is "preparing for the possibility" of keeping its T-Mobile USA (TMUS +1.4%) stake for at least another year if Iliad (OTC:ILIAF) fails to sufficiently improve its offer, sources tell Reuters.
- Iliad has reportedly set a mid-October deadline to improve its T-Mobile bid, after an initial $33/share offer for a 56.6% stake was rejected. Multiple reports have stated DT has its concerns about selling to to Iliad, especially given T-Mobile (unlike many of DT's European assets) is showing healthy growth.
- T-Mobile has dipped on the Reuters report, but is closing higher. Earlier today, Pac Crest argued T-Mobile should reject any offer below $40/share, given its recent performance. The firm added its retail checks indicated a pickup in switching activity (to T-Mobile) and termination fee reimbursements following the iPhone 6 launch.
Sep. 19, 2014, 6:30 PM
- Iliad (OTC:ILIAF) has set a mid-October deadline to either make a new T-Mobile USA (NYSE:TMUS) offer or walk away, Reuters reports. The French carrier is said to be talking with U.S. banks to help finance a higher bid.
- Reuters adds Iliad "faces resistance" from Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY), which would keep a minority T-Mobile stake under Iliad's proposed deal terms and is skeptical of the company's prospects in a market it currently has no presence in.
- Bloomberg reported earlier today Iliad was struggling to line up 3rd-party investors, and that DT's board was divided on whether it should "sell its only growing asset." Sources (within Iliad?) tell Reuters Iliad's management has "finished road shows to meet U.S. investors and is waiting to hear back from potential investors."
Sep. 19, 2014, 2:22 PM
- Iliad's (OTC:ILIAF) talks with KKR and other investment firms to make a joint bid for T-Mobile USA (TMUS -1%) haven't yet borne fruit, Bloomberg reports. The French carrier's $33/share bid for a 56.6% stake was shot down last month.
- Meanwhile, Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY), recently reported to be open to a $35/share offer for T-Mobile USA, is said to be split on whether it should "sell its only growing asset."
- Bloomberg adds Iliad has "discussed raising as much as $5 billion in additional debt and equity for a sweetened offer." Likely acting as a hurdle: T-Mobile, which has over $17B in debt, is investing heavily to build out its 4G network and grow its spectrum portfolio, and is sacrificing margins to gain share, isn't a conventional P-E target.
- Prior T-Mobile/Iliad coverage
Sep. 5, 2014, 4:35 PM
- Dish (DISH +0.9%) CEO Charlie Ergen contacted Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY) to let the carrier know he's interested in a deal to buy T-Mobile USA (TMUS +1.3%), sources tell Bloomberg. T-Mobile spiked shortly before the close on the report.
- Ergen hasn't been shy about making his interest in T-Mobile public, as Dish continues looking for ways to put its 4G spectrum to use. Sources caution Dish hasn't yet hired a bank to help pursue a bid, and that its seriousness is unclear.
- Bloomberg reported last week DT is open to a T-Mobile deal at $35/share. French carrier Iliad is trying to partner with P-E firms to sweeten its T-Mobile bid, after an initial $33/share offer for a 56.6% stake was rebuffed.
Sep. 1, 2014, 7:18 AM
- Despite its first bid at T-Mobile USA (NYSE:TMUS) being rebuffed, Iliad (OTC:ILIAF) says it is continuing to pursue a 56.6% stake of the mobile operator, and may now even partner with private equity funds to raise its offer.
- Iliad previously offered a bid of $33/share, although T-Mobile USA called the offer "a very inadequate value proposition."
- A report from Bloomberg last week announced that parent Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY) is open to holding talks to sell T-Mobile USA for $35/share or more.
Aug. 28, 2014, 1:03 PM
- Bloomberg reports Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY) is open to holding talks to sell T-Mobile USA (TMUS +2.1%) at $35/share or more. T-Mobile has risen above $30 in response.
- DT owns 67% of T-Mobile USA. French carrier Iliad (OTC:ILIAF) has offered $33/share for a 56.6% stake in T-Mobile, a bid T-Mobile has dismissed as "very inadequate."
- Sprint was rumored to be prepping a $40/share bid before abandoning its plans due to regulatory opposition.
Aug. 13, 2014, 6:37 PM
- Iliad's (OTC:ILIAF) $33/share offer to buy a 56.6% stake in T-Mobile USA (TMUS -1.6%) is "very flattering," but also "a very inadequate value proposition," says T-Mobile CFO Braxton Carter.
- However, Carter, whose company just saw Sprint abandon its attempt to buy it (for now) due to FCC/DOJ opposition, suggests T-Mobile is open to a better offer. "I think rarely people come with their best bid to start."
- For the time being, Iliad insists there's no need for a higher offer - T-Mobile currently trades at $29.14. But the French carrier has been reported to be reaching out to potential investors to sweeten its bid.
- Dish Network (DISH +1%) is also viewed as a potential T-Mobile suitor. Dish is still trying to find a use for its spectrum assets, and Charlie Ergen has repeatedly suggested he's open to a T-Mobile merger. But there are doubts about Dish's ability to pull off a deal, given both Dish and T-Mobile have plenty of high-yield debt on their balance sheets.
Aug. 7, 2014, 5:36 AM
- T-Mobile USA's (NYSE:TMUS) parent, Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY), has confirmed that it currently has no offer for T-Mobile USA which would boost the No.4 U.S. telecom provider's position.
- "We have always said that we would be open to offers for T-Mobile US which would improve its position and that of its shareholders," announces Deutsche Telekom CEO Tim Hoettges. "At the moment we don't have an offer which fits those criteria."
Aug. 5, 2014, 6:58 PM
- The WSJ reports Sprint (NYSE:S) is abandoning its bid to acquire T-Mobile USA (NYSE:TMUS) due to excessive regulatory hurdles.
- There were already many doubts about the ability of a Sprint/T-Mobile deal to pass muster with regulators.
- If Sprint is out of the picture, the coast is clear for Iliad (OTC:ILIAF) to pursue T-Mobile, provided financing isn't an issue. There were multiple reports earlier today indicating T-Mobile is rejecting Iliad's initial $33/share offer for a 56.6% stake.
- TMUS -5.6% AH
- Related tickers: OTCQX:DTEGY, OTCPK:SFTBF
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