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Saturday, April 21, 2012, 8:45 AM The bulls are building a sandcastle on the cover of Barron's, whose Big Money poll may be of dubious predictive value, but gives a great summation of the current conventional wisdom. Some areas of leaning to one side of the boat: Just 2% of those surveyed are bullish on Treasurys, and while 31% feel tech is the place to be over the next 6-12 months, not one thinks it could be the worst performer. A not-yet-IPOed Facebook makes the list of most overvalued stocks. 11 Comments
Friday, April 20, 2012, 3:40 PM "The undercarriage that brought (equity markets) this far is corroding," writes Eric Swarts, noting serious breakdowns in correlation between the S&P and Treasury yields, commodities, and equities outside of the States. Spain is surely due for a rebound that may lead another push higher for the S&P into the Facebook IPO, but be ready to stay nimble then. 5 Comments [Global & FX]
Wednesday, April 18, 2012, 8:35 AM The slides from Jeff Gundlach's "To QE3 or not to QE3" presentation last night. Don't fight the Fed is the message from slides 15 & 16 - showing the strong correlation between QE (and The Twist, which Gundlach considers QE3) and the S&P 500. (from the oral presentation) 5 Comments [U.S. Economy, Global & FX, Energy]
Tuesday, April 17, 2012, 5:05 PM It's all about the debt, writes the crack team of Hoisington and Hunt, and the extent to which the U.S. accumulation of such has been put to use unproductively has them maintaining their bullish Treasury stance. Might the debt be inflated away? Not likely. "The increase in interest rates associated with higher inflation would be one for one ... To start down this road ... would be foolish, impractical, and improbable." 12 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, April 17, 2012, 12:48 PM Treasurys are mostly unmoved by major rallies here and across the pond, the 10-year just getting its nose above 2% again, and the long bond +2 bps to 3.15%. Fed Funds futures - a couple of weeks ago pricing in rate hikes in 2013 - are now seeing no action until mid-2014. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, April 16, 2012, 9:14 AM Net foreign purchases of U.S.securities jumped $107.7B in February, reports the Treasury, a big number against expectations of $30B and a Y/Y change of just $364.5B. Chinese holdings rose about $12B to $1.1789T. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Friday, April 13, 2012, 11:16 AM Investors aren't chasing returns yet, pulling $21B from actively managed large-cap mutual funds in Q1 even as the S&P notched a 12.6% return, reports Morningstar. Fixed income continues to roll - taxable bond funds raking in $78.6B. 7 Comments
Thursday, April 12, 2012, 11:39 AM Add Dan Fuss to the list of bond fund giants liking equities more than fixed income. "We're in the foothills of a gradual rise in interest rates," he says, adding the move will be secular in nature. When the Fed stops sitting on the long end, "you need to get out of the market risk that's in fixed income and into company-specific risk you can find in stocks. 1 Comment
Thursday, April 12, 2012, 8:28 AM "In effect there has been a significant shortfall in the overall amount of monetary policy stimulus since early 2009," said Fed Vice-Chair Yellen last night, suggesting even with all of its extraordinary measures, the central bank hasn't done enough. She believes ZIRP could stay in place well beyond the current target of late 2014. 10 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, April 11, 2012, 1:16 PM Already down for their first day in six, Treasurys slip a little further after the 10-year note reopening. The 30-year yield +0.07 to 3.195%; 10-year +0.06 to 2.04%. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, April 11, 2012, 7:22 AM Contrarians take note - surging Treasury prices have taken out the stop-loss for Goldman's bond short trade and the firm is recommending clients cover and take a big loss. Goldman remains bearish on Treasurys, but takes note of Europe - "an important headwind to our directional stance." 7 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, April 10, 2012, 11:29 AM George Soros once said markets have a way of predicting the future because they create it. The 10-year Treasury yield just dropped below 2% again, a near 30-point decline in a handful of sessions since the Fed minutes squashed expectations for imminent QE. Falling equities and bond yields since that moment may change some minds at the FOMC. 13 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, April 9, 2012, 9:19 AM Treasury prices add to big gains seen Friday morning following the employment report. The long bond tacks on another quarter point, with the yield dropping 3 bps to 3.19%. The 10-year yield is threatening a one-handle again, dropping 2.6 bps to 2.03%. TLT +2.3% premarket. A favorite of the shorts, TBT -4.7% premarket. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Sunday, April 8, 2012, 9:00 AM The most exciting returns are to be had from an asset class where those who know it best love it least. Add MetWest's Tad Rivelle (MWTRX) to the list of star bond-fund managers bearish on Treasury prices. He's finding the best values in emerging-market corporate bonds, high-yield paper, and nonagency MBS. 1 Comment [Quick Ideas]
Friday, April 6, 2012, 8:59 AM Putting a yield on that big move in Treasurys following NFP report, the long bond - up a full point and a half in price - is off 8 bps to 3.25%. The 10-year yield is off 11 bps to 2.07%. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, April 5, 2012, 8:31 AM How sweet would have it have been to buy that big Treasury sell-off when the FOMC minutes indicated no imminent QE? The long bond has moved in a straight line right back to where it was as no QE means stocks fall, which puts QE back on the table and the bid back in Treasurys. Remember the cycle. The 30-year off 5 bps to 3.31%. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]

TMV Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares ETF

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Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares ETF