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Monday, June 25, 2012, 7:10 AM Treasurys return to the top of the U.S. fixed income heap, up 2.9% thus far in Q2, beating corporate bonds, mortgages, and munis. With the 10-year at 1.6%, a sampling of a consensus formed: "You're going to sleep less badly by buying a (Treasury)," "We have a scarcity of true safe-haven assets," "There's not going to be a serious backup" in rates, "People are terrified." 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, June 25, 2012, 5:49 AM Bunds are losing some of their safe haven status, as investors wonder whether Germany can continue to bear the burden of backstopping the eurozone crisis. U.S. Treasurys are likely to benefit, as few other havens remain; Switzerland and Japan are trying to deter investors to keep their currencies from appreciating, while Denmark and its northern neighbors aren't large enough to be true havens. 2 Comments [Global & FX]
Thursday, June 21, 2012, 7:34 AM Treasury yields are little-changed - the 10-year yielding 1.65% - after having a night to sleep on news the Fed is going to pump another $267B into the long-end between now and the end of the year. Last fall's Operation Twist had no success at bringing long rates down - they started falling this Spring when it became evident growth was again slowing. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, June 20, 2012, 12:48 PM The 30-year Treasury yield falls 6 basis points to 2.72% following the Operation Twist extension. The 10-year declines 3 bps to1.63%. Yields on the short end (where the Fed will be selling paper as it buys the long end) rise a hair, the 2-year up nearly 2 bps to 0.30%. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, June 20, 2012, 8:36 AM An outstanding interactive chart of the 10-year Treasury yield vs. the Fed's various stimulus programs shows one pretty clear trend: Sell Treasurys while QE is underway and buy them back when QE ends. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]
Friday, June 15, 2012, 10:59 AM What do Treasurys know that stocks don't? Usually moving in lockstep, Treasury yields are diving as stocks meander higher. The 10-year -7 bps to 1.57%. TLT +0.8%. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, June 13, 2012, 3:14 AM Pimco's Total Return Fund increased its exposure to U.S. Treasury-related securities to 35% in May from 31%, and raised its leverage on the $261B portfolio. 2 Comments
Monday, June 11, 2012, 3:41 PM Look for 1.3% on the 10-year Treasury, says BAML, noting declining yields are more than about the European crisis - a sharp decline in U.S. inflation expectations reflects slowing-growth worries and pushes expectations for Fed hikes even further out. Look for additional Fed ease as a signal for when yields should finally start rising. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Monday, June 4, 2012, 12:50 PM "Treasury bonds are essentially a speculative asset here," writes John Hussman, cutting the duration of his fund's bond holdings to less than a year. While the plunge in yields confirms his view of "a dire economic picture," 1.5% "leaves little on the table but speculative merit." 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, June 4, 2012, 11:29 AM They hated them at 2.3%, love them at 1.45%. Bank of America says 10-year Treasury yields have further room to fall, perhaps to 1.3%. The firm also lowers its year-end forecast from 2.3% to 1.9%. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Saturday, June 2, 2012, 11:45 AM Long-time bond bull Robert Kessler takes a victory lap and says there's plenty of room for yields to fall further. That's bad news for stocks, he says, as low yields are forecasting lower profits. How to make money with these yields? Banks can conservatively lever 20-to-1, borrowing for nothing to make 15% returns. It's a casino, but the House (the Fed) is paying everybody to play and win. 60 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Friday, June 1, 2012, 7:33 AM The "Peeps" hated bonds 30 years ago and they love them today, writes Kevin Ferry (with annotated chart) in maybe the only Treasury market analysis you need. The "Peeps" are as wrong "as they were when I walked on the floor in 1984. Wrong today, this minute, next week? Who knows." 26 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 31, 2012, 3:50 PM Its finger raised to the wind, Goldman sharply cuts its forecast for the high yield on the 10-year Treasury to 2% from 2.5% this year and to 2.5% from 3.25% in 2013. It's a nice bookend to the firm's famous March recommendation of a big shift out of bonds and into equities, timing beautifully the bottom in Treasurys/top in stocks this year. 7 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 31, 2012, 11:59 AM "Risk appetite is just completely gone out," says Citi's Gregg Anderson as the 10-year Treasury yield falls to a record 1.53%. Extreme levels are seemingly everywhere. Those who are long Treasurys, long Bunds, long Gilts, or short euros need to ask themselves how long they expect the central banks to sit on their hands. 5 Comments
Monday, May 21, 2012, 7:57 AM So bearish on Treasury bonds just a few weeks ago at yields 70 basis points higher, growing numbers of bond managers now posit the 10-year could fall to 1.5% (currently 1.74%). "Fundamentals are out the window at this point," says Matthew Tuttle, who last week jettisoned a lot of stocks and high-yield paper from his portfolio to buy Treasurys. Cycles, gotta love cycles. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, May 18, 2012, 12:55 PM The yield on JGBs falls to 0.815%, the lowest level since 2003. Folks of a certain age will remember that summer and remember the seeming impossibility of that level. We're not only back, but the rest of the world is headed there too. German 10-year Bunds, 1.43%, U.S. 10-years, 1.71%. At the short end, Germany has gone even further, its 2-years yielding 0.05% vs. Japan at 0.10%. 4 Comments [Global & FX]

TMV Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares ETF

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Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares ETF