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Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares ETF (TMV)

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  • Feb. 20, 2014, 10:25 AM
    • "Severe winter weather contributes to weak business activity," says the Philadelphia Fed, leading off its business outlook survey for February.
    • Full report
    • The headline number of -6.3 fell from 9.4 in January and is the first negative print in nine months. New Orders fell to -5.2 from 5.1. Shipments plunged to -9.9 from 12.1. Delivery Times -10.6 from -2.8. Prices paid 35.3 vs. 18.7.
    • Asked about the state of underlying demand, more than 45% said it was increasing, while 19% said it was decreasing.
    • Optimism remains about the next six months, with the future general activity index rising 5.8 points to 40.2.
    • The Treasury market is buying the bad weather excuse, with prices remaining lower and yields higher. TLT -0.2% and the 10-year yield up a basis point at 2.75%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, SBND, ZROZ, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, LBND, TYBS, TENZ, DLBL
    | Feb. 20, 2014, 10:25 AM | 4 Comments
  • Feb. 19, 2014, 2:21 PM
    | Feb. 19, 2014, 2:21 PM | Comment!
  • Feb. 19, 2014, 12:26 PM
    • Skeptical of the recovery and firmly in the dove camp not long ago, St. Louis Fed chief has turned strongly bullish on the economy. In an interview ahead of a speech today, Bullard brushes aside talk the quickly falling unemployment rate is sending a false signal about the strength of the economy.
    • “The bottom line is then you should take the signal from the unemployment rate decline as a signal of an improving labor market and an improving economy ... “The economy is much closer than normal than what we’re used to thinking about over the last five years ... Further declines in inflation would put pressure on Fed to take some sort of policy action."
    • Admitting (how kind) he has no model of how the harsh winter is affecting this year's economy, Bullard - instead relying on his "gut instinct" - says the weather is behind the soft numbers. Even if it's not the weather, he says, a few bad prints over the last few weeks wouldn't change his overall strong outlook.
    • Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TTT, TMF, SBND, ZROZ, TLH, IEI, DLBS, TYO, DTYS, VGLT, UST, BIL, SHV, UBT, TBX, VGIT, TLO, VGSH, SCHO, GSY, SCHR, DTYL, LBND, ITE, TYD, TENZ, TYBS, DTUL, SST, DTUS, TUZ, FIVZ, DFVL, TBZ, DLBL, DFVS, TYNS
    | Feb. 19, 2014, 12:26 PM | 13 Comments
  • Feb. 19, 2014, 8:45 AM
    • January housing starts of 880K were 16% below those in December, the largest sequential decline since February 2011, and are 2% below the January 2013 rate of 898K. Single family starts of 573K were 15.9% below December
    • Building permits of 937K were 5.4% below December and 2.4% above one year ago. Single family permits 602K were 1.3% below December.
    • Look for the rough winter weather to be bandied about plenty as an excuse, but feeling its oats after the bad print, Zerohedge notes permits crashed 26% in the West ... "that's where the snow must have been the strongest."
    • Longer-term charts from Bill McBride here and here.
    • No premarket trades yet for the XHB and ITB and Treasury futures remain as they were ahead of the release. TLT +0.35%
    • Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, SBND, ZROZ, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, LBND, TYBS, TENZ, DLBL
    | Feb. 19, 2014, 8:45 AM | 6 Comments
  • Feb. 13, 2014, 8:47 AM
    | Feb. 13, 2014, 8:47 AM | 2 Comments
  • Feb. 12, 2014, 11:51 AM
    • All those PhDs and computer models running around at the Fed and it comes down to the weather? The economy continues to improve, a hawkish-sounding St. Louis Fed boss Jim Bullard tells Bloomberg radio, blaming the string of weak data of late on the brutal winter.
    • He expects 3% GDP growth this year and the unemployment rate to fall to 6% by the end of the year, much quicker than he previously forecast. Inflation, though is the "wildcard," he says, expecting it to turn up towards the Fed's 2% target.
    • The Fed needs to be careful about changing the pace of the taper (faster or slower, one assumes) as it would send a "powerful signal" to the markets.
    • More: He would scrap the 6.5% unemployment rate threshold in favor of more "qualitative" guidance; the Fed chief should hold press conferences after every FOMC meeting.
    • Treasury prices remain under pressure, TLT -0.4%, and the 10-year yield up three basis points to 2.76% (as comparison, Spain is at 3.65%, Italy 3.73%)
    • Long-dated Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, LBND, TYBS, TENZ, DLBL
    | Feb. 12, 2014, 11:51 AM | 7 Comments
  • Feb. 11, 2014, 8:49 AM
    • “Let me emphasize that I expect a great deal of continuity in the Federal Open Market Committee’s approach to monetary policy,” says Janet Yellen in prepared congressional testimony, promising to hold short rates near zero "well past" the time when the headline unemployment rate falls below 6.5%.
    • She brushes aside recent jitters led by emerging markets , saying at this point they're not a substantial risk to the U.S. economic outlook and are not forcing any recalibration of Fed policy.
    • Not addressed in the prepared remarks (questioning to begin shortly after 10 ET) are the last two disappointing jobs reports.
    • As for "too-low" inflation - the PCE is running near 1% - Yellen expects some of the softness to be transitory and for the rate to move closer to the Fed's 2% target this year.
    • About flat before the remarks, the 10-year Treasury yield is higher by 3 basis points to 2.70%. Stock index futures remain higher by around 0..3%.
    • Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, DLBS, TYO, DTYS, VGLT, UST, BIL, SHV, UBT, TBX, VGIT, TLO, VGSH, GSY, SCHO, DTYL, LBND, SCHR, TYD, ITE, TENZ, TYBS, DTUL, DTUS, SST, TUZ, FIVZ, DFVL, TBZ, DLBL, DFVS, TYNS
    | Feb. 11, 2014, 8:49 AM | 4 Comments
  • Feb. 10, 2014, 3:11 PM
    • “It’s as if 100K service sector jobs went missing in the payroll report,” says David Rosenberg, scratching his head over Friday's soft payroll number. The weakness came from the services sector, he notes, and doesn't jibe with the strong January ISM services report (56.4), or the ADP jobs print showing 160K private-sector services jobs created last month.
    • The headline number "did not pass the proverbial sniff test," adds the former bond bull turned bear.
    • Treasury yields continue to buy Friday's number, off one basis point today to 2.68%, well below the near-3% level at the start of the year.
    • Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, DLBS, TYO, DTYS, VGLT, UST, BIL, SHV, UBT, TBX, VGIT, TLO, VGSH, GSY, SCHO, DTYL, LBND, SCHR, TYD, ITE, TENZ, TYBS, DTUL, DTUS, SST, TUZ, FIVZ, DFVL, TBZ, DLBL, DFVS, TYNS
    | Feb. 10, 2014, 3:11 PM | 1 Comment
  • Feb. 7, 2014, 9:03 AM
    | Feb. 7, 2014, 9:03 AM | 3 Comments
  • Feb. 7, 2014, 8:39 AM
    | Feb. 7, 2014, 8:39 AM | 4 Comments
  • Feb. 3, 2014, 10:14 AM
    • Gotta be the weather. The January ISM misses estimates by a mile, slumping to 51.3 vs. 56 expected and 57 in December. It's the lowest print since May 2013.
    • New Orders dove to 51.2 from 64.4, Production 54.8 from 61.7, Employment 52.3 from 55.8, Backlogs 48 from 51.5. On the rise are Prices to 60.5 from 53.5, with natural gas among those noted as headed higher.
    • Among the comments: "Poor weather impacted outbound and inbound shipments," "Good finish to 2013, but slow start to 2014, mostly attributed to weather," "We have experienced many late deliveries during the past week due to the weather shutting down truck lines."
    • Full report
    • Weather or not, the economic slowdown meme is on center stage. In the red before the report, Treasury prices reverse higher, TLT +0.4%, TBT -1%. The 10-year Treasury yield is now lower by two basis points to 2.63%.
    • Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, DLBS, TYO, DTYS, VGLT, UST, UBT, TBX, TLO, VGIT, GSY, DTYL, LBND, SCHR, TYD, TENZ, ITE, TYBS, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVL, DLBL, DFVS, TYNS
    • Stocks slide to session lows, the S&P 500 -0.8%.
    • S&P 500 ETFs: SPY, SH, SSO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, VOO, RSP, RWL, EPS, BXUB, TRND, SFLA, BXUC, BXDB
    | Feb. 3, 2014, 10:14 AM | 17 Comments
  • Jan. 30, 2014, 3:25 PM
    • How much of this year's bond rally is because something has changed fundamentally with the economy, and how much is just because of so many entering the year crowded on the bearish side of the boat?
    • This chart from LPL Financial of CFTC data show traders were as net short as they've been in years at the end of 2013. It didn't take much - a weakish employment report in early January forced some covering, which forced prices higher, which forced more covering. "When coupled with fundamental drivers, positioning and sentiment can be a potent combination," says LPL's Anthony Valeri.
    • At this point, the heavy short position has been mostly neutralized. Is there another catalyst that can send rates even lower.
    • Former bond bull, now economy bull David Rosenberg: "The bond rally has gone global but again is based more on investor jitters than on what’s exactly happening in the developed world economy."
    • Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL
    | Jan. 30, 2014, 3:25 PM | 2 Comments
  • Jan. 30, 2014, 8:49 AM
    • Consumer spending grew 3.3% in Q4, the fastest clip in some memory and up from 2% in Q3. Non residential fixed investment grew 3.8% vs. 4.8% previously. Government spending fell 12.6% vs. a 1.5% decline in Q3. Real final sales grew 2.8% vs. 2.5% in Q3.
    • For the year, real GDP increased 1.9% vs. 2.8% in 2012. The price index rose 1.2% vs. 1.7%.
    • Treasury prices are slightly weaker than before the report, the 10-year yield up three basis points to 2.71%.
    • This is just the first estimate for Q4 GDP and the revisions are often big ones.
    • TLT -0.3%, TBT +0.6%
    • Long-duration Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL
    • Full GDP report
    | Jan. 30, 2014, 8:49 AM | 5 Comments
  • Jan. 29, 2014, 10:54 AM
    • Who could have thought raising interest rates 425 basis points would be bearish? A curious rally following Turkey's defense of the lira - it jacked rates to 12% from 7.75% - has completely reversed. One feels a 1992-like vibe where the Bank of England hiked like crazy to defend the pound, but then ultimately had to let it go (also creating a bottom in stocks).
    • In Europe, the Stoxx 50 (FEZ) is off 1.3%, with Turkey (TUR) now down 2.3%.
    • South Africa joins the party, unexpectedly hiking its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%. EZA -2.8%.
    • A check of Brazil (EWZ -1.3%) and India (EPI -1.1%) - where monetary policy has also been tightened this week - finds them lower as well.
    • The money is flowing into U.S. Treasurys which continue a big 2014 rally. The 10-year yield is off five basis points to 2.71%. TLT +0.3%, TBT -0.5%.
    • Europe ETFs: ETFs: FXE, VGK, EUO, FEZ, ERO, EU, DFE, IEV, EPV, EZU, HEDJ, DRR, GXF, FEU, GUR, FDD, EUFX, ESR, UPV, ULE, FEP, ADRU, URR, FEEU, EURZ, DBEU, EURL, FIEU
    • Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL
    | Jan. 29, 2014, 10:54 AM | 8 Comments
  • Jan. 28, 2014, 8:44 AM
    • Gotta be the weather. Treasury prices quickly erase a sizable early-morning loss after December durable goods misses expectations by a wide margin. The headline number slipped 4.3% vs. expectations for a 1.6% rise and the ex-transports fell 1.6% vs. an expected 0.7% rise.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is now flat at 2.75%. TLT +0.2%, TBT -0.5%.
    • Long-dated Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL
    | Jan. 28, 2014, 8:44 AM | 2 Comments
  • Jan. 27, 2014, 10:27 AM
    • It's got to be the weather? New single family home sales (seasonally adjusted) fell 7% to an annualized 414K in December, but were 4.5% higher than a year ago. Inventory rose to a 5-month high of 171K homes, 5-month of sales at the current rate.
    • For all of 2013, 428K new homes were sold, 16.4% above 2012.
    • Full report
    • The XHB returns to flat after opening more than 1% higher, but the ITB - more of a pure play on the builders - is up 0.6%.
    • Treasury prices return to about flat after nice-sized losses early. TLT - no change.
    • Related ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL
    | Jan. 27, 2014, 10:27 AM | 10 Comments
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TMV Description
The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the inverse (or opposite) of the price performance of the 20+ Year Treasury Index. There is no guarantee the fund will meet its stated investment objective.
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