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Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares ETF (TMV)

- NYSEARCA
  • Nov. 4, 2013, 7:36 AM
    • Not tapering in September was a real close call, St. Louis Fed chief Jim Bullard tells CNBC, but the non-move enhanced the Fed's credibility as it proved the taper decision was data dependent (the flip side: "data dependance" is code for "we're in the dark").
    • As for the D.C. shutdown, Bullard brushes it off as not that big of a deal and says the Fed won't wait for political calm to start tapering.
    • "We've made substantial progress in labor markets," he says, adding that's he encouraged by early Q3 GDP estimates (we're more than a month into Q4; "in the dark" indeed).
    • Given the chance to take boosted QE off the table, Bullard refrains, but does say it would be highly unlikely.
    • Treasurys have given up some of their gains since Bullard hit the airwaves, with TLT back to flat premarket.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, FSA, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL.
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  • Nov. 1, 2013, 10:18 AM
    • At 56.4, it's the highest level for the index since April 2011. Both New Orders and Production were little-changed at 60.6 and 60.8, respectively. Employment -2.2 to 53.2. Supplier Deliveries +2.1 to 54.7. Backlogs +2.0 to 51.5. Exports +5.0 to 57.0.
    • It's the fifth consecutive gain for the ISM, after hitting a year-low of 49.0 in May.
    • Treasurys (TLT -0.9%) extend their losses with the 10-year yield all the way back to 2.61% after dropping to 2.48% earlier this week. TBT +1.4%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, FSA, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL.
    • Full ISM report.
    | 7 Comments
  • Oct. 31, 2013, 10:04 AM
    • The read of 65.9 is the highest since March 2011, and was far stronger than the 54.5 expected. It was led by double-digit gains in New Orders (highest level in 9 years), Production, and Order Backlogs.
    • The 10.2 point gain from September's 55.7 print is the largest in over 30 years, and marks just the 3rd time in a decade the index has risen for four consecutive months.
    • MNI Chief Economist Philip Uglow: "The government might have shut down but Chicago area companies powered ahead in October as orders and production surged."
    • Up nicely earlier, Treasurys (TLT) are now down a hair for the session. The 10-year yield is one basis point higher at 2.55%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, FSA, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL.
    | 8 Comments
  • Oct. 30, 2013, 2:18 PM
    • Notably missing from this meeting's statement is September's reference to concern over tightening financial conditions.
    • Notably added is a note about the slowdown in the housing sector in recent months.
    • Other than those two lines, today's statement is a near-carbon copy of September's. As usual, the K.C. Fed's Esther George dissented over worry the Fed's actions are fueling imbalances which could lead to the next bust.
    • WSJ's statement tracker.
    • Stock's remain little-changed, but Treasurys have given up their gains to turn lower, with the 10-year yield - as low as 2.48% earlier - now back to 2.53%. Perhaps the bond bulls wanted the Fed to acknowledge the softness of recent economic data. TLT -0.5%. TBT +1.1%.
    • Related ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
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  • Oct. 30, 2013, 8:30 AM
    | 25 Comments
  • Oct. 25, 2013, 11:21 AM
    • "We have a U.S. Fed policy calibrated for an outright economic depression," writes David Rosenberg, curious if the central bank's PhDs are hearing the same earnings call optimism he's hearing. He scratches his head over what appears to be a key task of the coming Yellen-Fed - raising the labor-force participation rate. Does the central bank really have the power to turn around a secular phenomenon?
    • Treasury yields are enjoying a nice run (lower), but there's not much left short of a return to outright deflation scare - a concept Rosie can't grasp given the dollar's decline to nine-month lows.
    • Sluggish payroll growth needs to be taken in context of federal employment slipping to the lowest point in nearly 50 years.
    • Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | 11 Comments
  • Oct. 24, 2013, 9:25 AM
    • With the Flash read falling to 51.1 in October from September's final 52.8 read, the Markit PMI gauge hits its lowest level in a year, with Output at 49.5 falling into contraction territory for the first time since September 2009.
    • New Orders fell to 51.6 from 53.2 and Supplier Delivery Times (the Maestro used to favor this measure) slid to 44.9 from 46.8.
    • Markit's Chris Williamson notes this read provides the first decent look into the effect of the government shutdown and the early verdict is it hit companies hard. "It is impossible to disentangle the impact of the shutdown from other factors that might have been at play during the month, so equally impossible to judge the extent to which business might bounce back in November."
    • Taper? What taper.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield slips to 2.47%. TLT +0.3%, TBT -0.65% premarket.
    • Full report.
    • Related ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | 4 Comments
  • Oct. 23, 2013, 9:18 AM
    | 10 Comments
  • Oct. 22, 2013, 8:45 AM
    • "Abysmal" private sector job growth, says Diane Swonk, noting 22K of the job gains came from government additions.
    • The headline jobs number missed estimates by 32K, but July and August revisions added 9K (July was revised lower by 15K, August higher by 24K).
    • Average workweek is unchanged at 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings up $0.03 to $24.09, up 2.1% Y/Y.
    • Labor force participation rate of 63.2% and employment-to-population ratio of 58.6% are both unchanged from August. Labor force participation - of key importance to incoming Fed chief Yellen - is off 0.4% YTD. The broader U-6 unemployment rate slips to 13.6% from 13.7%. It was 14.2% a year ago.
    • Stocks and bonds both get jiggy following the numbers, which surely push thoughts of a Fed taper even further into the future. S&P 500 +0.3%, and the 10-year Treasury yield slips 8 basis points to 2.53%. TLT +1%, TBT -2%.
    • S&P ETFs: IVV, SPY, VOO, RWL, SFLA, SSO, UPRO, SDS, SPXU, SH, EPS, RSP, BXUB, BXUC, BXDB.
    • Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | 7 Comments
  • Oct. 21, 2013, 12:56 PM
    • Short Treasurys for much of the year, Caxton went to neutral as soon as Larry Summers dropped out of the race for Fed chief, and is now long across the curve, says the hedge fund's chief Andrew Law. "For whatever reason," the U.S. economy has been unable to "reach escape velocity ... tapering is off the table for the foreseeable future." He notes GDP growth has averaged 2.2% over the last four quarters with zero rates and massive QE. Why would growth accelerate now? He believes the Fed looked at the same thing at its last meeting and realized it couldn't taper.
    • "There are no incentives for the corporate world to go out and spend – that, and housing, are critical ... The Fed is very clearly now seeking to lower interest rates."
    • On Europe, it's better, but he's not overly excited. He's keeping an eye on the euro (FXE) and expects $1.40 to be the line at which the ECB responds both verbally and maybe with a cut in rates. "The marketplace has spent the last 4 years trying to sell the euro and not quite understanding why it hasn’t collapsed to the teens… maybe now (longs) will have their moment."
    • Japan: Caxton cashed in on the yen devaluation and big stock rally earlier this year, and remains moderately bullish.
    • U.K.: There is no housing bubble. The country needs another 100K new homes per year. "My forecast would be that the BoE is not worrying too much about the housing market."
    • Law took over from Bruce Kovner at Caxton in 2008.
    • Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBXTRSY, PLW, GOVT.
    • Euro ETFs: FXE, ERO, ULE, URR, EUO, DRR, EUFX.
    | 10 Comments
  • Oct. 17, 2013, 9:21 AM
    | 2 Comments
  • Oct. 16, 2013, 2:46 PM
    • Long-dated Treasurys unexpectedly (to some) post a big rally in wake of the debt ceiling deal, with the 10-year yield tumbling 9 basis points in the past couple of hours to 2.67%.
    • The selloff and subsequent bounce-back of 4-week paper can be explained by fears (now ended) of some sort of short-term debt default, but longer-dated paper was under no such threat and might have been thought to rally thanks to the slowdown caused by the shutdown, and then sell off once ended. Go figure.
    • The Fed's Beige Book reported slowing growth in 4 of the 12 Fed districts isn't hurting, but the big move in Treasurys occurred before the 2 ET release.
    • TLT +1%, TBT -2%.
    • Other ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | 12 Comments
  • Oct. 15, 2013, 4:14 PM
    • Don't buy the hype of the default-doomsters in the event of no debt ceiling deal, says John Makin - formerly a principal at Bruce Kovner's Caxton, now with the AEI. Instead, buy long-dated Treasurys - lots of them.
    • Reaching the debt ceiling means no new government borrowing, but does not mean default as the Treasury brings in plenty to pay its debt service. However, government spending will need to by cut by about 20%, or 5% of GDP - sure to plunge the economy into a nasty recession and a dangerous deflation.
    • Those screaming instant chaos this month will initially be seen as "crying wolf," but - with a 20% cut in government spending - trouble will hit soon enough. That means everyone loses - except buyers of Treasurys.
    • TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO,SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | 13 Comments
  • Oct. 14, 2013, 9:48 AM
    • Thus far, the shutdown has trimmed 0.3% from Q4 GDP growth thanks to federal employee furloughs, reckons Goldman's Jan Hatzius, but the effect would be reversed in 2014 Q1 (assuming the shutdown ends). He adds another 0.2% decrease in growth thanks to the rise in uncertainty to come up with a downside risk of about 0.5% to his 2.5% Q4 GDP growth forecast.
    • Hatzius' note came out before the wrinkle of Democrats demanding the end of the sequester (automatic budget cuts) be part of any deal.
    • Thus far the shutdown - and apparent slower growth - has been of little benefit to long-term Treasury futures. They've been locked in a range surrounding 2.64% for weeks, and last week broke higher to 2.69%. The government bond market is closed today due to Columbus Day, but Treasury futures are marginally higher.
    • TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | 6 Comments
  • Oct. 10, 2013, 8:40 AM
    | 6 Comments
  • Oct. 9, 2013, 2:14 PM
    • Markets have rebounded from sizable early losses with a rumored deal brewing between the Senate's Harry Reid and the House's John Boehner as good of an excuse as any to hit the buy button.
    • The Dow (DIA +0.4%) is up 60 and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ -0.2%) has sliced into a loss of more than 1%.
    • The FOMC minutes suggest members felt the taper was still on the table as of three weeks ago, but plenty has transpired since, among them the government shutdown and the nomination of Janet Yellen as next Fed chief. The betting here says no taper until 2014 at the earliest.
    • Dow and Nasdaq ETFs: DIA, DDM, UDOW, DXD, SDOW, DOGQQQ, QQEW, TQQQ, QID, SQQQ, PSQ, QLD, QQQE.
    • Treasury prices (TLT -0.7%) remain a bit lower, the 10-year yield up 2 basis points to 2.66%.
    • Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
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The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the inverse (or opposite) of the price performance of the 20+ Year Treasury Index. There is no guarantee the fund will meet its stated investment objective.
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