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Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL)

  • Sep. 2, 2014, 5:30 PM
  • Aug. 19, 2014, 10:31 AM
    • A far-faster-than-expected 15.7% gain in housing starts in July has the homebuilders sharply higher. Lenner (LEN +2.6%), Comstock (CHCI +5.8%), Ryland (RYL +2.4%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.1%), Toll Bros. (TOL +1.4%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.1%), KB Home (KBH +1.9%).
    • Commenting on the number, Bill McBride notes starts in Q1 averaged 925K on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, 997K in Q2, and that Q3 appears to be off to a solid start (1.093M in July). By year's end, McBride expects 2014 housing starts to increase by a double-digit pace over a weak 2013.
    | Aug. 19, 2014, 10:31 AM | 3 Comments
  • Jul. 24, 2014, 10:09 AM
    • The ITB is lower by 1.5% and the XHB by 0.7% with earlier earnings misses from Pulte (PHM -1.5%) and D.R. Horton (DHI -5%). and just-released disappointing new home sales data weighing. Also reporting this morning was M/I Homes (MHO -3.2%), and that company beat estimates.
    • June single-family new home sales of 406K fell 8.1% from May's rate of 442K (which was revised down from 504K). Expectations for June sales were 479K.
    • The supply of new homes rises to 5.8 months at June's sales pace from 5.2 months previously.
    • Other names: Lennar (LEN -1.6%), Ryland (RYL -2.3%), Standard Pacific (SPF -2%), Hovnanian (HOV -0.9%), Toll Brothers (TOL -2.2%).
    | Jul. 24, 2014, 10:09 AM | 15 Comments
  • Jun. 24, 2014, 10:09 AM
    • May's adjusted annual pace of 504K new home sales is the fastest print in six years. The number is 18.6% above April's pace and 16.9% higher than a year ago. The supply of new homes on the market at the current sales pace dropped to 4.5 months worth from 5.3 months in April.
    • Sales in the Northeast jumped to 34K from 22K in April, and those in the West to 130K from 97K.
    • Full report
    • Homebuilder ETFs: ITB +1.2%, XHB +0.7%.
    • Toll Bros. (TOL +1.2%), Lennar (LEN +1.4%), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.7%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.3%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.3%)
    • Previously: New home sales soar past estimates
    | Jun. 24, 2014, 10:09 AM | 16 Comments
  • Jun. 20, 2014, 10:38 AM
    • The averages are nudging higher, but not the homebuilder names after Owens Corning cuts 2014 guidance on continued weakness in its roofing business.
    • Soft action in Q1 continued through April and May, says the company, which now sees H1 roofing volumes as much as 20% lower than 2013. Owens still expects H2 to be better, but is less confident of that forecast today than it was a few months ago.
    • ETFs: ITB -1.3%, XHB -1.2%
    • Toll Bros. (TOL -1.6%),  TriPointe Homes (TPH -1.3%), Lennar (LEN -1.6%), Ryland (RYL -1.8%), Hovnanian (HOV -0.9%), PulteGroup (PHM -1.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI -0.8%), Standard Pacific (SPF -1.8%)
    | Jun. 20, 2014, 10:38 AM | 10 Comments
  • Jun. 17, 2014, 9:44 AM
    • Hit particularly hard in early action are the homebuilders after May housing starts missed expectations, but a fast CPI print has interest rates higher.
    • Previously: Treasury prices slip after fast CPI report
    • ETFs: ITB -1.1%, XHB -0.7%
    • D.R. Horton (DHI -2.3%), KB Home (KBH -1.3%), Ryland (RYL -1.1%), Toll Brothers (TOL -1.2%), Lennar (LEN -0.7%), Hovnanian (HOV -0.7%)
    | Jun. 17, 2014, 9:44 AM | 1 Comment
  • May 28, 2014, 3:01 PM
    • Jay McCanless and Annie Worthman at Sterne Agee say without the benefit of a lower tax rate other non-operating boosts, Toll Brothers (TOL +2.1%) would have missed the team's EPS estimate of $0.31 per share. They continue to rate the stock an Underperform with $28 price target.
    • The bullish team at MKM Partners note Toll "essentially raised" guidance by boosting the low end of its average expected sale price this year to $690K from $675K. "Given the company’s long build cycle, we suspect that the higher guidance is likely more of a statement on the anticipated mix of closings rather than a signal that prices are being raised more aggressively."
    • Amid the big gain by Toll and sharply lower interest rates, some other builders: Hovnanian (HOV +1.7%), Beazer Homes (BZH +1.4%), KB Home (KBH +0.8%), Lennar (LEN +0.2%), PulteGroup (PHM), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.2%).
    • ETFs: XHB, ITB, PKB
    • Previously: High home prices boost Toll results
    • Previously: Toll Brothers beats by $0.09, beats on revenue
    | May 28, 2014, 3:01 PM | 1 Comment
  • May 28, 2014, 7:32 AM
    • FQ2 net income (quarter ended on April 30) of $65.2M, or $0.35 per share vs. $24.7M, or $0.14 one year ago.
    • Deliveries of 1,218 units up 36% in units and 67% in dollar terms from a year ago. Average price of homes delivered of $706K vs. $577K.
    • Net signed contracts of $1.27B and 1,749 units up 7% in dollar terms and flat from a year ago. Average price of signed contracts of $729K vs. $678K.
    • Backlog of $3.21B and $4,324 units up 27% in dollar terms and 18% in units.
    • SG&A as a percentage of revenue (after excluding Shapell acquisition costs) of 11.5% vs. 15.4%.
    • FY14 guidance of 5.1K-5.85K in home deliveries with gross margin improved by 175-200 bps is reaffirmed, but company ups the average price of homes delivered to $690-$720K vs. $675K being the bottom of the range previously.
    • CC at 2 ET
    • TOL +3.6% premarket
    • Previously: Toll Brothers beats by $0.09, beats on revenue
    | May 28, 2014, 7:32 AM | Comment!
  • May 28, 2014, 6:10 AM
    • Toll Brothers (TOL): FQ2 EPS of $0.35 beats by $0.09.
    • Revenue of $860.4M (+66.7% Y/Y) beats by $29.49M.
    • Press Release
    | May 28, 2014, 6:10 AM | Comment!
  • May 27, 2014, 5:30 PM
  • Apr. 25, 2014, 4:43 AM
    • The amount that lenders originated in mortgage loans plunged 58% on year Q1 to a 14-year low of $235B, almost entirely due to drop in refinancing. The figures are from industry newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance.
    • Loans for acquisitions were flat on year and lower than in Q4.
    • The trend is the latest indication that increasing interest rates are hampering the housing recovery. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 4.5% last week, up from 3.6% in May last year, when rates spiked after the Fed indicated it would scale back its QE program.
    | Apr. 25, 2014, 4:43 AM | 9 Comments
  • Apr. 24, 2014, 1:21 PM
    • The iShares DJ U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB +2.7%) gains as earnings roll in from D.R. Horton, PulteGroup, Ryland, and M/I Homes. While PulteGroup saw slowdowns in closings and new orders, but offsetting increases in prices, D.R. Horton reported sales, new orders, and prices all on the rise. DHI is ahead 8%, Pulte 3%, Ryland (RYL +2.2%), M/I Homes (MHO +5.9%).
    • The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB +1.2%) is more of a homebuilding supply play.
    • Other builders: NVR (NVR +3.4%), Lennar (LEN +3.5%) Standard Pacific (SPF +2.8%), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC +3.2%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.5%), Toll Bros (TOL +4.2%).
    | Apr. 24, 2014, 1:21 PM | Comment!
  • Apr. 23, 2014, 10:19 AM
    • The seasonally adjusted new home sales pace of 384K in March is 14.5% below that of February and 13.3% lower than a year ago. It's the slowest pace since July, and 14.5% is the 3rd-largest decline in 20 years. The median sales price of $290K is up 12.6% Y/Y. The supply of new homes on the market is 6 months at the current sales pace, up from 5 months in February.
    • Homebuilder ETFs: ITB -1.7%, XHB -1.2%.
    • Toll Brothers (TOL -1.6%), Lennar (LEN -1.9%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.5%), Pulte (PHM -1.6%), KB Home (KBH -3.3%), Beazer (BZH -2.4%), Ryland (RYL -2.6%)
    • The 10-year Treasury yield dips two basis points to 2.69%. TLT +0.4%, TBT -0.8%
    • Full report
    | Apr. 23, 2014, 10:19 AM | 19 Comments
  • Mar. 14, 2014, 8:23 AM
    • It's about lackluster demand and declining gross margins, says Credit Suisse analyst Daniel Oppenheim, pointing to his firm's monthly "buyer traffic index" survey. It fell two points in February at 36 and compares to a read of 65 in February 2013 and 62 a year before that. The 36 print is the lowest since February 2009 and missed expectations for 50.
    • "We expect the stocks to reflect these observations as macro housing data and homebuilder orders and gross margins come in short of expectations."
    • Wednesday: Credit Suisse pulls Buy ratings on Toll Brothers (TOL), PulteGroup (PHM), and William Lyons (WLH).
    • Monday: More downgrades
    • ETFs: XHB, ITB
    | Mar. 14, 2014, 8:23 AM | Comment!
  • Mar. 12, 2014, 7:21 AM
    • Three more downgrades hit the homebuilders, with Toll Brothers (TOL), PulteGroup (PHM), and William Lyons (WLH) being cut from Buy to Hold at Credit Suisse. At the moment, a combination of higher mortgage rates and higher home prices has the Street worried about the sector.
    • On Monday a different set of homebuilders suffered three downgrades at the hands of BAML and Citigroup.
    • TOL -1.5% premarket
    • ETFs: XHB, ITB
    | Mar. 12, 2014, 7:21 AM | Comment!
  • Mar. 5, 2014, 10:46 AM
    • A check of the homebuilders following Hovnanian's big earnings miss and slowdown in closings (HOV now down 6.6%): NVR (NVR -1.5%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.1%), KB Home (KBH -1.8%), Pulte (PHM -0.8%), Ryland (RYL -1.5%), Toll Bros. (TOL -0.3%), Lennar (LEN -1%).
    • So what's the SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB +0.1%) doing in the green? The ETF has a heavy weighting to those tangential to the homebuilding industry - retail home improvement, building suppliers. More of a pure-play homebuilder fund is the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB -0.8%).
    | Mar. 5, 2014, 10:46 AM | 5 Comments
TOL vs. ETF Alternatives
Company Description
Toll Brothers Inc designs, builds, markets and arranges financing for single-family detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities.