Aug. 23, 2013, 10:12 AM
- July new home sales fell 13.4% to an adjusted annual rate of 394K, far below expectations of 487K. The 394K pace is still 6.8% above the pace of one year ago. Given the current pace of sales, inventory rose to 5.2 months worth of homes from 3.9 in June.
- The U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB -3%). Weighted more heavily on building suppliers than the builders themselves, the S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB -1.9%).
- Lennar (LEN -3.8%), Toll Brothers (TOL -4.1%), Ryland (RYL -5.1%), KB Home (KBH -4.4%), D.R. Horton (DHI -3.7%), Hovnanian (HOV -3.3%).
- Treasury prices cut sizable losses and turn green, TLT +0.3%.
- Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
Aug. 21, 2013, 7:25 AM
- Toll Brothers (TOL) net profit -24% to $46.6M as the company takes a tax expense of $21.7M vs a benefit of $18.7M last year.
- Pretax profit $68.3M vs $43M.
- Signs contracts for 1,405 homes at a value of $992.6M, up from 1,119 homes and $674.4M last year.
- Cancellation rate 4.6%, unchanged from last year.
- Backlog +75% to $2.84B and +56% to 4,001 units.
- We believe the recovery is real and we are in the early stages of the rebound," says CEO Douglas Yearley. "Our average sales contracts per community are about where they were in 1997-1998.
- Guidance: FY 2013 revenue of $2.46-2.62B vs $1.88B in FY 2012 and consensus of 2.53B; deliveries of 3,925-4,125 homes vs 3,286 homes last year. (PR)
Aug. 21, 2013, 5:54 AM
Aug. 21, 2013, 12:05 AM
Aug. 20, 2013, 5:30 PM
- AEO, EV, EXXI, LOW, MSG, PETM, SJM, SPLS,TGT, TOL
Aug. 19, 2013, 12:13 PM
- Off more than 20% since its May high, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB -1.6%) is officially in a bear market, notes Ryan Detrick. The previous 3 instances the ETF fell 20%, it declined another 7.7% in the following month.
- Know your ETF: The S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB -0.8%) has strongly outperformed the ITB during this 3-month slump.
- While ITB's main holdings are concentrated in actual homebuilders like LEN, PHM, DHI, TOL, and NVR, top holdings in the XHB are supply companies like Lumber Liquidators, Lennox, Lowe's/Home Depot, and A.O Smith - a homebuilder can't be found in its top 10 names.
- Other related ETF: PKB.
Aug. 16, 2013, 12:48 PM
- Struggling home builders are jumping ahead on respectable but in-line housing data, as at least overall construction has climbed in two of the past three months.
- "Looking at the underlying trend in one-family starts suggests that the pace of groundbreaking activity is actually fairly steady," an RBS economist says, unconcerned about July's drop in single-family starts since "anecdotal evidence suggests builders may be holding back on new construction in part to reap the benefits of higher prices."
- Raymond James "continue[s] to believe we are in the early stages of a sustainable up-cycle in U.S. housing," and favors Toll Brothers (TOL +1.5%), which it sees as less sensitive to mortgage rates.
- PHM +3.4%, LEN +3.1%, KBH +2.9%.
- ETFs: XHB, ITB, PKB, REZ.
Aug. 16, 2013, 8:41 AM
- Weeding out volatile multiple-family figures, July single-family starts of 591K fell 2.2% from June's revised figure of 604K. The 591K print is the lowest since last November as higher interest rates sap some of the market's energy.
- July building permits of 943K is 2.7% above June's revised rate of 918K.
- A few homebuilders premarket: TOL +0.7%, LEN +0.6%, PHM +1.2%.
- Homebuilder ETFs: XHB, ITB, PKB.
- Full report.
Aug. 15, 2013, 11:40 AM
- The NAHB builder sentiment index rises to nearly an 8-year high of 59 in August - the last time it was higher was 61 in November 2005. The move comes with the pace of new home sales nearing 500K annually, 38% higher than a year ago, but off from the 700K consistent with a healthy market.
- The HomeBuilders ETF (XHB -0.4%) continues its summer decline, though it has bounced significantly since the NAHB print hit the tape.
- Other ETFs: XHB, ITB, PKB.
- A few stocks: Toll Brothers (TOL +2%), M/I Homes (MHO +3%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.7%), Pulte (PHM +2.2%), Lennar (LEN +3.1%), Ryland (RYL +1.3%), Beazer (BZH +2.9%).
Jul. 25, 2013, 11:42 AMThe Homebuilders ETFs (XHB -2.6%), (ITB -4.3%) slip after earnings from PulteGroup (PHM -9.3%) and D.R. Horton (DHI -8.2%), with Pulte notable for reporting a big decline in orders (interest rates on the rise again aren't helping). Goldman reiterates its Sell rating on Pulte, noting the need to be selective within the sector. Others: Toll Brothers (TOL -2.4%), KB Home (KBH -5.8%), Lennar (LEN -4.8%), and also reporting M/I Homes (MHO -7.3%), and Ryland (RYL -8.1%). One homebuilder/landowner caught up in the selloff is UCP, Inc. (UCP -2.4%) - a promising play that may be the victim of a poorly-timed IPO, says SA Pro's Money Investor. | Jul. 25, 2013, 11:42 AM | 1 Comment
Jul. 22, 2013, 2:58 PMHomebuilders (ITB -1.4%) tumble across the board after existing June home sales slipped a seasonally adjusted 1.2%. Rising mortgage rates were supposed to boost short-term demand as potential buyers aimed to lock in mortgages before rates went even higher, but the June report showed no sign of it. KBH -2.6%, RYL -2.5%, MTH -2.5%, DHI -2.2%, MDC -2.2%, HOV -2%, LEN -2%, PHM -1.6%, TOL -1.4%. | Jul. 22, 2013, 2:58 PM | 3 Comments
Jul. 16, 2013, 7:54 AMWith house prices rising, profits healthy and financing available, large publicly traded house-builders such as Lennar (LEN), NVR (NVR) and Toll Brothers (TOL) have been buying up their smaller privately held rivals, which have had trouble getting funding for new developments. Ryland Group (RYL) is onto its third acquisition in a year. To stay independent, some private companies have listed, with three IPOs in the sector taking place since January. | Jul. 16, 2013, 7:54 AM | Comment!
Jul. 15, 2013, 3:59 PMLit up bright red on an otherwise quiet day are the homebuilders (XHB -1%). Lennar's (LEN -4.1%) big move puts it down 8% YTD as the benign interest rate scenario of the past many months/years becomes less so. Others: Pulte (PHM -3.3%), Toll (TOL -2.2%), Ryland (RYL -2.6%), D.R. Horton (DHI -4.6%). | Jul. 15, 2013, 3:59 PM | 5 Comments
Jul. 5, 2013, 10:07 AM
Jun. 25, 2013, 2:15 PMHome builder stocks are enjoying a good day today on the back of better results from Lennar (LEN), along with above consensus results from Case-Shiller's Home Price Index in April and strong May New Home Sales. Despite the positives, Wells Fargo's Adam Rudiger thinks it's too soon to dismiss the potential impact of rising mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.62% during LEN's Q2, Rudiger notes, well below the 4.51% average rate as of yesterday. | Jun. 25, 2013, 2:15 PM | 1 Comment
Jun. 24, 2013, 9:20 AMGoldman Sachs initiates or resumes coverage on several housing plays, recommending Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC), NVR (NVR), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC), KB Home (KBH), D.R. Horton (DHI) and Beazer Homes (BZH) at "Neutral" (I, II, III, IV, V, VI). Goldman resumes Meritage Homes (MTH), Toll Brothers (TOL) and Ryland Group (RYL) at "Buy" (I, II, III) and adds the latter to its Americas Conviction Buy List, but it grades PulteGroup (PHM) as a "Sell," due to growth that lags its peers. | Jun. 24, 2013, 9:20 AM | 1 Comment
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