At the end of each trading week, Hillbent scans the equity market for potential anomalies which exhibit extremely oversold and overbought conditions. Past observations have revealed that such candidates may experience reversal corrections to the upside or downside once the market reconfirms that their fundamentals remain solidly intact or relatively poor. From a contrarian perspective, these lists may also serve as a precursor to changes in institutional sentiment and underlying fundamentals.

(The purpose of this report is not to provide specific recommendations, but instead serve as a time-saving reference tool and starting point for investment ideas as the upcoming trading week unfolds. Of course, the results generated are not always perfect and users are strongly encouraged to perform their own due diligence on these names. Note that overbought and oversold conditions are based upon proprietary algorithms and quantitative models instead of conventional technical analysis indicators. As a supplement to this report, please refer to our ETF Trends Report to determine if market direction trends support a bullish or bearish investment bias over short-term, intermediate, and long-term timeframes.)

Q2 2009 Earnings Call

August 6, 2009 5:00 pm ET

Q1 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

May 8, 2009 8:00 am ET

On-Demand Index spiked even higher than the jubilant market yesterday gaining 8.43%. With yesterday’s gain the On-Demand Index moved into a positive territory for YTD (year-to-date) returns just as it did for two days last week. The index has matched the broader S&P Software Index with a 3.88% YTD.

Q4 2008 Earnings Call

February 19, 2009 5:00 pm ET

Q3 2008 Earnings Call

November 5, 2008; 05:00 pm ET

The index is included in this post but is also available on the Data Doghouse sidebar by clinking on "The On-Demand (or SaaS) Index" graphic.

Q2 2008 Earnings Call

August 11, 2008 5:00 pm ET

The stocks recording a YTD gain include: The TriZetto Group, Inc. (TZIX), Ultimate Software Group Inc. (ULTI), Salesforce.com (CRM) and Kenexa Corporation (KNXA). Although these four companies vary widely in what they sell, they do have several key business attributes in common:  profitable (earnings now), applications that businesses need in growth and recessionary climates, the ability to beat out competitors (even much larger companies with deep pockets) and, a reasoned business growth plan.

Q1 2008 Earnings Call

May 6, 2008  5:00 pm ET

The disclaimer on mutual fund performance about “past performance does not guarantee future returns” is applicable selecting stocks. It’s easy to pick a winner on momentum stocks in a bull market. All boats rise.

When a company is young it may be investing in growing the business so it burns through cash and does not make a profit. During that period venture capitalists or their proxies are providing the cash for investment. If a start-up is lucky enough to go public during a Bull market then their stock price will soar when they go public. Unfortunately the inflated stock prices in a hyped technology sector sometimes fools people – employees, investors and even customers – into believing that business success is assured.

• A weak Q1 could pressure Yahoo (YHOO) CEO Jerry Yang to cut a deal with Microsoft (MSFT). Its $31/share offer is now worth about $29 due to a fall in MSFT stock. If Yahoo comes up way short in Q1, Microsoft could pull its bid, and shares could fall to just $15 based on a comparison of Google (GOOG) and Yahoo's shares before and since the bid.
• Electronic Arts (ERTS) will win its $26/share bid for Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO). Its bid was so far above TTWO's pre-offer price that additional suitors are unlikely.
• Down 21% this year, the software sector is ripe for consolidation. Cheap quality names include Ariba (ARBA), Epicor Software (EPIC), Lawson Software (LWSN) and DealerTrak (TRAK), Cowen's Peter Goldmacher says. Citi's Brent Thrill mentions Informatica (INFA), TIBCO Software (TIBX), BladeLogic (BLOG), Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP), THQ (THQI) and Nuance Communications (NUAN).
• Potential buyers include Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), EMC (EMC), International Business Machines (IBM), Sun (JAVA), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL).
• Networking infrastructure is another sector with undervalued companies, including Juniper Networks (JNPR), Cavium (CAVM), Foundry Networks (FDRY) and Riverbed Technology (RVBD). Extreme Networks (EXTR), with a market cap of $350M, cash of $226M, and about $40M in property, is "silly cheap."

So, we decided to do a rundown on firms that we think may have some exposure, hidden or not, to the subprime mess.

DealerTrack Holdings (TRAK) shares have gone spinning off the road Wednesday morning, after the company provided disappointing guidance for 2008.

DealerTrack, which provides software and services to auto dealers, Tuesday reported fourth quarter revenue of $60.7 million and EPS of 25 cents a share, in each cash very slightly below the Street. More troubling: for 2008, the company sees revenue of $270 million to $276 million, and EPS of $1.14 to $1.18, below the consensus of $284.03 million and $1.28.

Last week started with rumors of Oracle (ORCL) buying salesforce.com (CRM) with CRM and NetSuite (N) in sympathy, rising high on that day. That rumor did not become fact (for now) and does not seem based on financial and business criteria.

However, on Thursday NetSuite announced solid quarterly results but said that sales growth would slow in 2008 and that it would remain in the red for the year. NetSuite said part of the reason for slower sales growth would be that they do not have a large enough sales force, but that is the result of their business execution. Analysts debated whether the stock, despite a descent from its highs, was still too richly priced. Its stock went down 10.3% on Friday.

Q4 2007 Earnings Call

February 19, 2008 5:00 pm ET

The On-Demand Index is a classic example of momentum investment changing course. A recent example has been the financial stocks, using the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) as a proxy, has been on a roller coaster ride the last few months. Financial stocks experienced a sharp reversal with the surprise decision by the Fed (in an emergency session) last week to reduce rates by three-quarters on a point. With the overhang of a potential recession and a slowdown which is currently underway, it is unlikely that momentum with shift on tech stocks or the on-demand companies in a positive direction until a catalyst signals an “all clear” for tech spending. It will take some time for us to have visibility to tech spending for the year.