Thu, Feb. 19, 2:28 PM
- Expedia (EXPE +2%) and TripAdvisor (TRIP +3.9%) are having a good day after Priceline beat Q4 estimates in spite of being heavily pressured by a weak euro, and reported 17% Y/Y bookings growth (above guidance of 8%-15%).
- The online travel giant's Q1 guidance - 4%-11% revenue growth vs. a 13.5% consensus, and 2%-9% bookings growth (14%-21% in constant currency) - is light, but better than feared given forex and Priceline's history of guiding conservatively.
- The shoe was on the other foot last week: Priceline rallied in response to TripAdvisor's results and the Expedia/Orbitz deal.
Thu, Feb. 12, 12:45 PM
Thu, Feb. 12, 9:15 AM| 5 Comments
Wed, Feb. 11, 6:45 PM
- In addition to beating Q4 revenue estimates (while missing on EPS), TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP) guided on its CC (webcast) for high-20s 2015 revenue growth, above a 24% consensus. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow at a low-to-mid teens clip.
- A 97% Y/Y increase in subscription, transaction, & other revenue (to $71M) provided a big lift to Q4 sales. Click-based (metasearch ad) sales rose 25% to $181M, and display ad sales rose 13% to $36M. North America sales +35%, EMEA +39%; Asia-Pac +13%. Forex had a 4% impact on sales growth.
- GAAP costs/expenses +25% Y/Y to $228M (compares with 35% revenue growth). Sales/marketing spend totaled $115M, up from $107M a year ago but down from Q3's $159M (boosted by a TV ad campaign).
- TRIP +13.7% AH to $76.50. After having tumbled in November thanks to TripAdvisor's Q3 report, shares went into earnings close to a 52-week low of $66.04.
- Q4 results, PR (.pdf), earnings slides (.pdf)
Wed, Feb. 11, 5:36 PM
Wed, Feb. 11, 4:08 PM
Tue, Feb. 10, 5:35 PM
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Mon, Feb. 2, 6:40 PM
- Acquisition-hungry TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP) has bought ZeTrip, the developer of personal travel journal app Rove. Terms are undisclosed.
- Rove has only seen modest uptake - Google Play puts its Android app installs in the 10K-50K range. TripAdvisor has already made several acquisitions meant to expand the features/services provided to its user base.
- Q4 results arrive on Feb. 11.
Fri, Jan. 9, 11:33 AM
- Liberty Media (LMCA -1.3%) CEO Greg Maffei has been given more voting control of TripAdvisor (TRIP +0.7%), according to a new SEC filing.
- Maffei gained through an asset swap 2.8M B shares (10 votes per share) of Liberty TripAdvisor held by John Malone.
- Liberty TripAdvisor in turn has majority voting control of TripAdvisor.
- SEC Form 13D
Thu, Jan. 8, 11:11 AM
Thu, Jan. 8, 9:59 AM
- Believing "the best days for shares may be behind it," Stifel's Scott Devitt has downgraded Google (GOOG -1.4%) to Hold. "Google is in the early to mid stages of a core business maturation. The company continues to find growth outside of search, but in structurally lower-margin business [segments] such as Google Play and YouTube."
- Devitt adds Google will face stiff competition as it further expands into vertical search categories such as travel, local, and e-commerce - some of those efforts have been faring well - and echoes other analysts in arguing Facebook's growing share of digital ad spend poses a threat.
- Devitt has also downgraded Priceline (PCLN -1.3%) to Hold, citing concerns about forex - the impact of a weak euro is already well-known - high marketing spend, and growing competition. "The online travel market continues to benefit from secular tailwinds such as mobile adoption, but we believe that shifts in the competitive landscape and macro headwinds warrant a moderate 2015 outlook."
- TripAdvisor (TRIP +0.4%) has been cut to Hold due to worries about delayed booking service launches and higher marketing spend, as well as growth concerns about TripAdvisor's core metasearch service (previous).
- Google, Priceline and TripAdvisor were already fairly close to their 52-week lows going into today. Google and Priceline both now trade for 17x 2015E EPS. Their 2015 revenue growth consensus estimates are respectively at 19% and 17%.
Dec. 5, 2014, 7:06 PM
- Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) and Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) have made their hotel inventory available for in-app bookings through Priceline-owned Kayak and travel startup Top10's app. However, they refuse to do the same for the Instant Bookings feature within TripAdvisor's (NASDAQ:TRIP) mobile apps.
- Priceline and Expedia's stance highlights the tension between the companies and TripAdvisor. While TripAdvisor drives plenty of traffic to both companies' sites (in exchange for referral fees) through its metasearch platform, it also does so for many rival sites, and (like Google) acts as an alternative to directly using Priceline and Expeida's platforms.
- TripAdvisor's click-based ad revenue (metasearch-driven) rose 31% Y/Y in Q3 to $247M. It's expected to grow at a mid-20s to high-20s clip for the whole of 2014.
Dec. 2, 2014, 1:25 PM
Nov. 5, 2014, 10:08 AM
- In addition to missing Q3 EPS estimates (while beating on revenue), TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP) used its CC (transcript) to lower its full-year adjusted EBITDA growth forecast to the low-20s range. Three months ago, the company forecast adjusted EBITDA growth would be at the low end of a prior high-20s to low-30s range (that also didn't go over well).
- In addition, guidance for 2014 click-based (search-driven) revenue growth has been lowered to the mid-20s from the high-20s. TripAdvisor notes ad clicks are being affected by "hotel shopper seasonality."
- Subscription/transaction/other guidance has been raised to the low-80s from the high-60, and display ad growth is still forecast to be in the mid-to-high teens; acquisitions are giving a lift to the former. Total revenue growth is still expected to be in the high-20s to low-30s; consensus is at 31.5%.
- Heavy spending is partly responsible for the EBITDA guidance cut: GAAP costs/expenses rose 58% Y/Y to $270M, with sales/marketing spend rising 64% to $159M. TripAdvisor has ramped spending for both online ads (similar to peers) and a TV ad campaign, and says it's "leveraging [its] very large and profitable hotel business to capture market share in attractions."
- Q3 click-based ad revenue +31% Y/Y to $247M; display ads +13% to $35M; subscription/transaction/other +106% to $72M.
- BofA/Merrill and Pac Crest have downgraded, and several firms have cut their targets.
- Q3 results, PR (.pdf)
Nov. 5, 2014, 9:16 AM
- Gainers: CRTO +19%. JIVE +17%. YOD +16%. TTPH +12%. IBIO +11%. AEZS +9%. EXEL +8%. CLNY +7%. ANR +7%. ROYT +7%. EOG +6%. PHMD +6%. NICE +6%. VPCO +6%. ATVI +5%. VG +5%. CTSH +5%. WLT +5%. MACK +5%.
- Losers: CHUY -24%. NUS -22%. FEYE -16%. ZU -14%. TRIP -13%. SSYS -8%. MEMP -7%. NG -6%. ANV -6%. ARIA -6%. AWAY -6%.
Nov. 4, 2014, 4:14 PM
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