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TRSY

PIMCO Broad U.S. Treasury Index ETF

5/19/2013, 11:31 PM ET

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Saturday, May 14, 2011, 7:15 PM Turning to trading, Stan Druckenmiller says it's "complete nonsense" to believe low Treasury yields reflect a market copacetic with the state of government finances. "The market isn't saying anything about the future. It's saying there's a phony buyer (the Fed's QE) of $19 billion of Treasurys a week." Druckenmiller is long Treasurys.
8 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, May 10, 2011, 7:42 AM Bill Gross's initial attempt at shorting U.S. Treasurys didn't work out so great (they had their biggest rally in eight months) - so he's doubling down. Pimco's $241B Total Return Fund is now -4% in government debt, from -3% in March. Cash and equivalents soared to 37% from 31%. Comment! [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]
Friday, May 6, 2011, 1:48 PM You can have Bill Gross' short position in Treasurys when another recession pries it out of his hands. After weeks of the bonds' gains, Gross tells Reuters that yields are low, but "perhaps the only justification for a further rally would be weak economic growth or a future recession" that dents inflation. The 30-year yield up slightly, +0.02 to 4.28%, but otherwise still falling: 10-year -0.01 to 3.14%; five-year -0.03 to 1.85%. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 5, 2011, 3:35 PM Ten-year Treasurys take out their low yield for the year, now sitting at 3.17%. Amid S&P downgrades, famous short sellers, and chatter about a default if the debt ceiling isn't raised, money finds its way into U.S. government securities when trouble arises. TLT +1.0%, TBF -1.1%. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy, On the Move]
Thursday, May 5, 2011, 8:38 AM Joe Biden is to meet with Democrats and Republicans today about raising the $14.3T debt limit by August 2. The sides are considering deficit targets and some spending cuts whilst leaving healthcare and taxes for after the 2012 election. To get through 2012, the Treasury needs a $2T increase. 7 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, April 18, 2011, 4:41 PM Forget the S&P rating action, says Cullen Roche; the only news that matters today is an FT article that the Fed will soon signal the end of QE. The price action - stocks down, bonds up, dollar up - is exactly what one would expect for the end of the QE trade. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas, Global & FX]
Monday, April 18, 2011, 12:59 PM Jeff Gundlach says the S&P warning is good for Treasuries because it will push lawmakers into action on fiscal reform. Lower government spending combined with the end of QEII is the recipe for a deflationary environment and thus, lower bond yields. 2 Comments [Quick Ideas, U.S. Economy]
Thursday, April 14, 2011, 12:30 PM A pretty fair Bond King of his own, Jeff Gundlach simply explains why Bill Gross is wrong about bonds selling off at the end of QEII: QE is inflationary, which is bad for bonds, therefore the end of QE has to be deflationary, which is good for bonds. The charts make it difficult to argue otherwise. Did anybody actually sell Treasurys based on Gross? 15 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, April 11, 2011, 5:05 PM Does anybody disagree with Bill Gross? Maybe Gross himself. Once a card player, the PIMCO chief knows better than to give away his hand to an opponent. "It should set off all contrarian alert systems," writes John Carney. "Conventional wisdom on Wall Street usually turns out to be dangerous, wrong, or dangerously wrong." 2 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Monday, April 11, 2011, 7:22 AM "A giant ponzi" scheme is former PBOC advisor Yu Yongding's description of the U.S. Treasury market, who contends the Fed is the only thing standing between current bond prices and reality. Letting the yuan float would lessen the need for China to purchase U.S. debt, says Mr Yu. Comment! [Global & FX]
Friday, April 8, 2011, 12:22 PM With QEII making the Fed the marginal buyer of Treasuries, its ending means Bernanke will soon have to hike interest rates in order to attract real money buyers, says Don Coxe. This will put strain on a financial system unable to handle it. Commodities will benefit, as will the loonie, "the new Swiss franc." 6 Comments [Global & FX]
Friday, April 1, 2011, 11:10 AM The greenback returns to its pre-NFP levels as NY Fed President Dudley puts the kibosh on all the loose talk about tighter monetary policy. Bonds settle down as well, the yield on the 10 year returning to 3.46% from 3.51%, the 2 year at 0.84% from 0.88%. 2 Comments [Global & FX]
Friday, March 25, 2011, 5:25 PM FOMC member Plosser's plan for tightening monetary policy would have the Fed dispose of $125B in assets for every 25 basis points increase in the Fed Funds rate, cutting $1.25T from the balance sheet while jacking rates to 2.5% over one year. Plosser doesn't have the "foggiest idea" if his plan will be implemented. 1 Comment
Wednesday, March 23, 2011, 9:19 AM PIMCO sees 3 key factors as adding to global inflationary risks: the degradation of sovereign balance sheets, emerging markets becoming exporters of inflation, and aging populations saving less and consuming more. With accommodative central banks, it's a recipe for a secular move higher in inflation. 6 Comments [Global & FX]
Friday, March 18, 2011, 12:56 PM Flow of funds data shows central banks, either the Fed or overseas, funded 90% of the government deficit in Q4 2010. These purchases are funded with currency created by the click of a mouse button ... no wonder commodities are screaming and Bill Gross dumped his long bonds. 9 Comments
Tuesday, March 15, 2011, 11:26 AM Questioned by Sen. Schumer in a Senate hearing, Tim Geithner says Japan won't need to sell Treasurys into the crisis: "Japan is a very rich country and has a high savings rate and has the capacity to deal not just with the humanitarian challenge but also the reconstruction challenge they face ahead." 10 Comments