Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL)
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- General Discussion on TSL
- 41 Stocks Returning 10% or More Last Week [view article]
- What's Up with the China Solar Stocks [view article]
- A Look at Four Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers' Funding [view article]
- Solar Cycles and Stocks: The Sun Also Rises [view article]
- Solar Stocks: Cutting Back on Three Names [view article]
- Trina Solar: Will 2009 Be a Breakout Year? [view article]
- Trina Sell-Off Overdone - Raymond James [view article]
- With Help from California, Solar Gets Fired Up [view article]
- Yingli Green Energy: Tidy Earnings Bump Up Against Anti-Solar Sentiment [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Trina Solar Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript [view article]
- An In-Depth Look at Solar Stocks [view article]
Recent TSL Articles
- What's Up with the China Solar Stocks
- Chinese Tech Stock Weekly Summary (Aug. 18-25)
- Solar Cycles and Stocks: The Sun Also Rises
- Trina Sell-Off Overdone - Raymond James
- Trina Solar: Will 2009 Be a Breakout Year?
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- With Help from California, Solar Gets Fired Up
- 41 Stocks Returning 10% or More Last Week
- Yingli Green Energy: Tidy Earnings Bump Up Against Anti-Solar Sentiment
- China ADRs: Mixed July
- Full List of Articles »
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doesn't get
it
41 Stocks Returning 10% or More Last Week [view article]
Ops mgr. of what market...you obviously have network envy issues! Reply41 Stocks Returning 10% or More Last Week [view article]
Actually Ops Mgr. Dr. Ernest Simo is a well respected engineer & author of many books. He's a nationally recognized trainer in wireless technologies. As usual in all my responses to your uneducated posts, try doing some background research before posting crap...again, go back to work Sprextel/Clearwire sales puke! Replydoesn't get
it
41 Stocks Returning 10% or More Last Week [view article]
So you're a Cell Tech that gets his information from pamphlets, the internet, and youtube!!! HaHa!! ReplyIt
What's Up with the China Solar Stocks [view article]
When they say "profit taking" that means they don't know. It's the default answer given.Why not say "today more people wanted to sell than wanted to buy so the price went down"? It would provide just as much information... zero.
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What's Up with the China Solar Stocks [view article]
Profit Making &Taking - for Sure, but not simple ReplyWhat's Up with the China Solar Stocks [view article]
Agree with leh, profit taking across the board, solar is still a beautiful story. ReplyWhat's Up with the China Solar Stocks [view article]
Profit-taking, pure and simple. ReplyWhat's Up with the China Solar Stocks [view article]
I'd agree that most of the reasons offered for such volatility are factors to one degree or another - but I really think that overall market conditions, e.g., threat of unabated inflation, S&P/DOW dancing with collapse, etc., have put most investors on the sidelines - leaving only the traders and hedge funds to move the market. Solar volumes have been pretty anemic - and therefore easily affected/manupulated by the relative few... ReplyWhat's Up with the China Solar Stocks [view article]
The solar stocks dropped because every time the chicken littles read a headline in the USA Today they run out and buy, buy, buy or sell, sell, sell. We of the cooler heads just need to sit back and wait until they buy or sell back and the normal progression will continue.The Money section of the USA Today for Tuesday had a lead article on the front page that said Wind, Solar projects race expiring credit, which referred to the fact that AMERICAN wind or solar companies MAY lose their federal tax credit at the end of the year. It said nothing about Chinese or other solars not being involved. It said nothing about this being a done deal for the US companies.
I have seen this a hundred times or more. There are a number of CL's out there that don't pay any attention to the facts about a company. They run their (probably dwindling) portfolios based on headlines alone. I have TSL and STP. They're both up today. 'Nuff said? Reply
What's Up with the China Solar Stocks [view article]
E.Savitz...a writer that's very, very negative in regards to the Solar Industry, it's as if he'd prefer to see all Solar companies not only China stocks down and out on their backs.....hmmmm Reply
What's Up with the China Solar Stocks [view article]
Irrational. Like oil futures. Demand decreases, production increases, prices increase on rumor. Did the dollar go up 6% yesterday? That doesn't account for the sell off levels. Will the trend toward solar subsidies increase world wide in spite of a given country's rumored pull back from subsidy levels? Of course, it's a macro-trend. More solar support is invevitable especially by 2010. Perhaps even the US Congress will finally pass a bill by then.So why are the Chinese solars undervalued compared to American solars like FSLR? Why are they so volatile in spite of consistent earning and sales improvement? It's similar to oil in my opinion. Many investors do not quite understand the near term dynamics of the situation, so they trade on rumor and momentum, even though the long term has a seeming inevitable outcome. Is China a reliable economic and political environment for business? Or will they somehow nationalize or confiscate the ownership of these businesses? (Answer; No, China's never looking back again from this economic success. They have taken the lesson of the Shanghai experiment and the abosorption of Hong Kong to heart and it has shown the path. China will broaden theses effects throughout the country.) Even Cramer has irrational bias against China for this fear and lack of understanding. Although, admittedly, its more opaque by American standards, without GAAP reporting and SEC filings. Any China investor has to take a little bit of a leap of faith that the numbers are real. (I recently explained to a friend that I don't consider this as big a problem as he did because the penalty hanging over the head of a publicly held Chinese company CEO or BODs is most likely more onerous than anything the SEC is likely to do to malfeasant American CEO's and BOD. Unlikely you'll see any ENRONs in China. In the United States, a CEO is more likely to get a "golden parachute" than go to jail for gross negligence or fraudulent insider activity. The penalty in China is likely a bit more draconian after all.)
Will inflation kill the goldern goose in China? (Possibly, but how can analysts constantly predict the China slow down and simulaneously tout inflation as the biggest problem?) China's problem is similar to ours, as oil explodes up, so does inflation, if it's pulling back, at least for awhile then we and China will also feel relief on most of the COLI indices, along with the rest of the world. In the United States, we don't quite believe the solar revolution is going to happen, even though Europe is already in the throws of it. After all, Congress has had the renewables bill blocked or defeated 8 times this year, one candidate keeps talking about a nuclear reactor in every back yard, and our current energy policy is the product of oil company CEO's meeting in the back room. Therefore there is yet an element of unreality to Solar in this country. (Because of this I consider the best current play to be ESLR, constantly beat down for lack of net earnings, yet increasing 2008 sales by a factor of ten and manufacturing infrastructure to go with it. ESLR has the one advantage that no Chinese Solar has, it's American, and any likely renewables bill will undoubtedly favor American companies over Chinese. Ergo, the value play and the future momentum play is in this stock.)
Finally, volatility begets volatility. Burned once, you'll be very careful in the future, prepared to pull the trigger on any hint of implosion. When the stock seems to be moving in either direction, you don't want to be left behind. It may be trading for undecipherable reasons, but the direction is clear. All this means is trust the fundementals and your own analysis. If LDK has beat estimates by 200%, increased earnings out look, never failed to surprise upside, has planned and completed vertical intigration, manufacturing capacity and secured raw material, then it will be a winner in the end. (So trust your own analysis.) Argueably the smaller company's may dillute holdings to underwrite expansion, but even CSUN and SOL have shown that they can do this without ruining share value. Some might notice, that unlike many American companys in start up, in the first year mode undergoing extreme growth demands and vast new financial wealth through IPO offering, the Chinese companys will quickly show positive earnings, and reasonable M & A components, and option gifts and insider trading is not a significant line item expense at the end of the year. (Compare that concern with virtually any new American pharmaceutical or hot sector IPO on the OCBB. Such greedy malfeasance is not likely to be tolerated in China, and the CEO and CFO are not likely to be building an offshore bank account, unless their family lives in another country and their tolerance for a labor camp is very high.)
Chinese capitalism seems to be an oxymoron, and solar hasn't yet been bought into by many investors. Chinese inflation is a subject of constant speculation and the European market for Chinese wafers is the only tangible measure many analysts can identify. What's left to trade on? Momentum, that's what. I say trust your own analyis, trust the reported numbers, trust in the macro-trend, and (this may be a bit harder to do) trust in the fact that the new China miracle is not going to go retro because of some ressurection of Communist self immulation. How do I know? How about the biggest two week display of new found pride and affluence paraded before the world in what was suppose to be the Olympics, but actually turned out to be a Chinese coming out party. Or did anyone fail to notice that. Reply
What's Up with the China Solar Stocks [view article]
Stocks go up and down - most solar stocks have had nice moves from their recent lows prior to the past 2 weeks of earnings announcements- with ENER left for tomorrow.
While a pause was exepected [and may be over this morning] the worries over polysi supply is waning [LDK increasing production forecast for example] and module makers will be able to ramp and push out more revenues at ASP's around $4 per peak watt.
Solar may be the only group with real growth [50+] in earnings and revenues as the economy falls off the cliff.
Where are you going to get your alternative enregy as more and more state and country mandates are being made?
If you do not like solar, then you might as well buy SBUX how smart is that when people will no longer pay-up for $4 coffe? Reply
What's Up with the China Solar Stocks [view article]
I think there's been a reluctance to commit to solar stocks given the volatility they've shown, concerns about liquidity, the quickness with which this technology develops, and, well, they've just been neglected. Look at a 6-month chart and you'll get perspective on this drop. All summer they've seen low volume and been unable to hold gains. That may be changing, but not without shudders like today. ReplyWhat's Up with the China Solar Stocks [view article]
Thanks for the article Eric.I don't buy the excuses given, but I don't have any of my own to offer. There are a lot of great companies trading at huge discounts with very bright futures. Solar seems to be an industry with that characteristic. We could have a good bull market coming up if we quit telling ourselves how bad things are. All this gloom is becoming a self fulfilling prophecy. We put a terrible spin on the good news and over state the bad news. Intel said it in their cc, something to the effect that they saw good customer demand, but they also watched cnn, implying that the news was different than their business.
Check out "money and investing", Ken Fisher's website or Briefing.com. They speak to the much better economy than the MSM will print. Look at the negative slant in the MSM to even good news.
Reply
What's Up with the China Solar Stocks [view article]
It could be just a pullback from a phenomenal couple of weeks for solar. Look at the one month charts to put it in perspective.Stocks move all the time for no fundamental reason. There is no need to over analyze this. Reply