at Investor's Business Daily (Fri, 6:55PM)
at Investor's Business Daily (Fri, 6:22PM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 5:38PM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 5:05PM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 4:00PM)
at MarketWatch.com (Fri, 3:42PM)
at Investor's Business Daily (Fri, 2:07PM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 1:47PM)
at Benzinga.com (Fri, 1:13PM)
at MarketWatch.com (Fri, 11:27AM)
No Excuses: Falling Gasoline Prices Are Impacting Tesla's Sales
- Falling gasoline prices are unequivocally bad for Tesla sales, right now, all other things equal.
- Even rich people prefer to justify a $100,000 purchase by saying they’re saving money somewhere in the equation.
- The direct variable cost per mile of driving electric remains 2.5x cheaper than gasoline at $2.50, but by that argument, 100% of car sales would already have been electric.
- There is more to the total-factor cost of owning a car than simply the variable cost of fuel, including reliability and flexibility.
- The good news for Tesla is that if gasoline prices increase, it would be 100% good news: No excuses apply to both directions.
- A Tesla Motors vehicle with 400 miles of range is a game changer.
- Tesla Motors is currently the only company capable of producing an electric vehicle with 400 miles of range.
- Investors should take note of the details of the announcement that will happen later today.
America's SUV Sales Boom Vs. Tesla's Negative Growth Rate
- For the first 11 months of 2014, Tesla's US unit sales are estimated to be down 15%.
- As a comparison, I provide 27 examples of SUVs with strong or extremely strong US unit sales increases for the same period.
- Almost all of these 27 SUVs also sell more cars per year in the US, compared to Tesla.
- Given the discrepancy in the growth rates, something doesn't add up here: Either Tesla is wildly overvalued or the other automakers are extremely undervalued.
- The other automakers could spin off these SUV model lines at valuations exceeding Tesla in most instances.
- Tesla has yet another threat emerging.
- This particular threat threatens Tesla's image, reputation, trade-in values, demand for cars and the insurance rates charged to Tesla owners.
- Tesla still has a chance to fix the issue.
- If the issue is not fixed, the resulting reputation could lead to long-term subpar profitability.
- Last week, Tesla announced it would finally provide battery swapping through a test run between LA and San Francisco.
- Costing roughly the same as refueling a luxury sedan, Model S drivers can choose between "faster or free."
- With battery swapping, Tesla weaves its way into absorbing millions in ZEV Credits.
- Additionally, battery swapping further lifts the argument that EVs can be more convenient than an ICE or hydrogen fuel cell car.
- Tesla has emerged as a prime candidate for short sellers.
- Federal Reserve, Department of Energy and state-level tax policies will work in tandem to support the Tesla business model and the stock's performance.
- Tesla is a poor candidate for short sellers who may find themselves caught up in a squeeze.
- However, conservative investors should consider avoiding Tesla stock altogether.
- Oil continues to plunge, making Tesla less and less appealing to those wishing to save money on gas.
- The company's stock is trading at a large multiple despite a market that seems unsure of itself.
- We lower our price target from $210 to $185.
- I've already written on how Tesla being an early leader in a supposedly high-growth market (EVs) is no guarantee of victory.
- Lack of barriers to entry in the EV marketplace, together with no sustainable advantages for Tesla support this claim.
- In this article, I explore the opposite - whether there might be one thing where Tesla really might have an advantage over other automakers.
- Tesla shares, along with energy stocks have followed crashing oil prices.
- Tesla's business and product strategy may insulate it from the effects of cheaper oil and gasoline.
- Lower oil prices could portend the end of the age of oil, but cheap oil and gasoline could end Tesla if its performance car strategy fails.
- Tesla shares have fallen from a high of $291.42 in September to the $205 range, a drop of 30%.
- By a wide range of metrics, Tesla remains considerably overvalued.
- A whole host of problems will hold Tesla back.
- Although Tesla is a great company that offers a unique brand, this does not justify its current valuation.
- The recent selloff of Tesla Motors might be providing us with the opportunity to buy an excellent business at a fair price.
- A business is excellent if it has an enduring competitive advantage.
- Tesla's economic moat is owed to technical, business and human factors.
- In this article, I present each of the three factors and show that several aspects often overlooked by the majority of investors are fundamental pieces of Tesla's economic moat.
The One Variable That Will Determine Tesla's Future
- The one significant area where Tesla’s competitors have not announced the intent to compete is the long-distance road-trip charging network.
- If Tesla is left alone to offer this functionality, it will have an enduring advantage.
- If Tesla’s competitors spend the money to build a competitive long-distance road-trip charging network, Tesla’s remaining advantage will be gone.
- So what will Tesla’s competitors do? Time is running out.
Tesla: Implications Beyond The Electric Car Industry
- Tesla's true potential may not lie in its electric car business, but rather its future battery business.
- The Gigafactory has far-reaching implications that extend to all the way to the Utilities market.
- Tesla's union with SolarCity could drastically disrupt the electric power industry.
Leshi Is Moving Into Electric Vehicles: Negative Implication For Tesla
- Chinese software company Leshi is working on a new EV.
- Initial model could compete against TSLA in China in pricing and features.
- Leshi is looking to move beyond TV and STB. EVs may present a unique opportunity.
- Solid state batteries have been cited as a possible replacement for current lithium ion batteries.
- Solid state batteries for automotive applications are not currently feasible.
- Development of solid state batteries is a high risk effort that may never pay off.
- As such, they pose no threat to Tesla or the Gigafactory.
Cheap Oil May Affect 'Green Vehicle' Sales, But Probably Won't Affect Tesla Motors Sales
- Oil prices probably won't affect demand for Tesla Vehicles.
- BMW may have a big problem.
- The supply glut in oil may be a very good thing for Solar Power.
- Automatic lane change is dangerous and probably illegal without rear radar.
- According to a leading autonomous vehicle engineer, no radar currently in the market is useful for automatic lane change.
- The company has a history of announcing and then forgetting major features and projects.
Why Does Tesla Not Appear In The Detroit Auto Show Press Conference Schedule?
- Breaking with tradition, Tesla doesn’t appear on the Detroit Auto Show Press Conference schedule for January 12-13.
- Last year, Tesla preannounced positive December quarter sales at that event, after which the stock immediately skyrocketed.
- I interpret this to mean the December quarter is extremely back-end loaded and therefore likely on the weak side.
- Tesla was also expected by some to show either the future Model X and/or Model 3 cars at the Detroit Auto Show.
- However, showing one or both of those models would risk “Osbourneing” sales of the current Model S.
Today, 8:47 AM
- Elon Musk on Twitter: "Roadster upgrade will enable non-stop travel from LA to SF -- almost 400 mile range." With the Roadster currently having a range of 244 miles, the upgrade stands to deliver a ~60% range boost. Details will be provided shortly.
- Musk adds a similar upgrade for Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Model S (265-mile range with the 85 kWh battery pack) is "not coming soon," but will happen long-term.
- Tesla sold ~2,500 Roadsters from 2008-2012. A next-gen model is rumored to be in the pipeline.
- Earlier: Tesla pushes Model S in China
- Update: Tesla has officially announced the upgrade, known as the Roadster 3.0 package. A new 70 kWh battery pack provides a 31% energy increase; "modern computational methods" allow drag coefficient to be lowered by 15%; and new tires provide a 20% improvement in rolling resistance coefficient. "There is a set of speeds and driving conditions where we can confidently drive the Roadster 3.0 over 400 miles."
Today, 3:02 AM
- Elon Musk is partnering with used-car traders in China to help Chinese buyers trade in their old cars if they buy a Model S.
- Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will deduct the value of the sale from the price of the car, which in China starts at 648K yuan ($104K).
- Musk expects to start building Model S sedans in the country within three to four years.
Tue, Dec. 23, 7:25 PM
- It’s pretty clear why many energy stocks are hurting amid falling crude oil prices, but Morgan Stanley has researched across industries to determine some less clear-cut winners and losers.
- Airlines consume huge amounts of fuel, but the firm says American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) and Allegiant Travel (NASDAQ:ALGT) should benefit more than most from lower oil prices since they do not hedge the price of fuel to reduce price volatility.
- Among autos, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) draws concern because "lower-for-longer oil certainly hurts the case for mass-market adoption of electric vehicles.”
- Since lower gas prices should reduce shipping costs, Stanley sees the benefit trickling into Q1 per-unit shipping costs at Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).
- The firm likes Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST) on the idea that Americans getting cheaper gas might be more ready to splurge on energy drinks, and gas stations and convenience stores account for 75% of MNST’s sales.
- Among apparel companies and retailers, Stanley likes brands that are most popular with lower-income consumers, who they believe are most likely to put the money they save into new purchases: PLCE, FL, FINL, BWS, SKUL, ARO, BURL, ROST.
Fri, Dec. 19, 5:58 PM
- Consumer spending in several areas is likely to benefit from lower pump prices, but J.P. Morgan's Ryan Brinkman thinks the auto industry may benefit more than most from consumers having more money to spend on all things apart from fuel.
- The analyst sees Goodyear Tire (NASDAQ:GT), American Axle (NYSE:AXL), GM and Ford (NYSE:F) - in that order - as best positioned to benefit, followed by suppliers with material exposure to full-size trucks and SUVs that is not as great as AXL, including Tenneco (NYSE:TEN), Lear (NYSE:LEA) and Tower International (NYSE:TOWR).
- Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is an exception, however, as Brinkman sees a potential reduction in the terminal value of cash flows on his reduced outlook for Model 3 vehicles if fuel prices remain low longer-term.
Fri, Dec. 19, 4:11 PM
- Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) is out with more details on the new battery swap pilot program set to launch.
- Select Model S owners will be give the chance to test the service at a new facility in Harris Ranch, California
- The EV automaker says the battery switch will take three minutes.
- If Tesla determines that there is sufficient demand, it will invest in automation and design upgrades to cut down the swap process to under a minute.
Fri, Dec. 19, 2:17 PM
- The age of connected cars appears closer with Google pushing forward with its next-gen Android M software designed to be integrated into automobiles.
- The industry has a bit of an uneasy relationship with Google, despite the company's open-source approach to the technology.
- Though most major automakers collaborate with Google through the Open Automotive Alliance - which aims for a common platform to drive innovation - the self-driving car initiative of Google and their own infotainment ambitions keep them wary.
- Analysts originally forecast vehicle-to-vehicle communication would be part of the connected car concept and be integrated into some models by 2016, although that timetable now appears unlikely.
- What to watch: Before any major breakthrough occurs, the DOT needs to weigh in on next-gen connected cars. That gets trickier with safety and security concerns teed up again after the high-profile GM recall debacle and crippling Sony hacking incident.
- Automaker stocks: GM, F, TM, HMC, OTCPK:NSANY, TSLA, OTCQX:VLKAY, OTCPK:DDAIF, OTC:HYMLF, OTCPK:BAMXY, OTCPK:MMTOF, OTCPK:PEUGF, OTC:RNSDF, TTM, OTCPK:MMTOF, OTCPK:SZKMY, OTCPK:FUJHY, OTC:RNSDF, OTCPK:GELYF, FCAU.
Fri, Dec. 19, 11:19 AM| 94 Comments
Wed, Dec. 17, 8:32 AM
- Morgan Stanley is out with new long-term production estimates on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA).
- Analyst Adam Jonas lowers the 2018 forecast for Model 3 volume to ~40K.
- The outlook for 2020 deliveries is dropped to 297K vs. Tesla's target of 500K.
- The lowered expectations from MS on production are counterbalanced to a degree by the higher average transaction price it sees as the sales mix stays shifted toward the luxury segment.
- The price target on Overweight-rated TSLA is taken to $290 from $320 by MS.
- Tesla's dip below $200 drew out 187 comments yesterday on SA from bulls and bears
- TSLA -1.8% premarket to $194.20.
Tue, Dec. 16, 9:59 AM
- Shares of Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) dipped below $200 in premarket trading before pulling back over the threshold. Tesla hasn't closed below $200 since May.
- The stock is ~31% off its 52-week high as the production timetable of the EV automaker's Model X becomes clearer and factors into estimates.
- The lower price of gas in the U.S. isn't an overriding concern for Tesla, say many automobile analysts.They note Tesla buyers aren't typically the penny-watching types.
- There was good news on the Gigfactory front after city officials in Reno and Sparks exuded confidence at a County Commission meeting that the region can support the massive plant.
- Tesla is now down 1.08% to $201.54.
Fri, Dec. 12, 8:53 AM
- Veronica Wu has been with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) for over a year, but will leave the company in the coming days, reports the WSJ, and confirmed by Tesla.
- Tom Zhu - currently in charge of Tesla's supercharging network in China - will assume responsibility for operational leadership in the country, says the company.
- Wu's exit comes shortly after the resignation of Tesla's China chief of communications, Peggy Yang.
- Shares -1.8% premarket
Tue, Dec. 9, 7:05 PM
- Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) late push into the green helped shares avoid a company record eighth straight down day, amid talk that the severe decline in oil prices has been taking a toll on TSLA; the thinking is that car buyers would be less adamant about fuel efficiency when the price at the pump drops.
- But Bespoke researchers say the correlation between TSLA's stock and the price of oil has been changing slowly for years, and “over the last six months... they have moved completely independent of each other on a day-to-day basis.”
- Among the "real" reasons cited for the recent declines: recent media reports in Germany that cooled excitement about a potential partnership between with BMW, a lower than previously announced driving range for the new P85D, and broad losses among momentum stocks.
- TSLA still trades at more than 70x next years projected earnings, but bulls look ahead to 2017 when the company’s Model 3 is scheduled to hit showrooms; Bespoke also likes TSLA’s long-term prospects but says the stock will suffer downswings "like the one it is currently experiencing.”
Tue, Dec. 9, 10:20 AM
- Tesla Motors (TSLA -3.2%) trades lower as the impact of lower oil prices on demand continues to be hotly debated.
- InsideEvs pegs the number of U.S. Model S sales in November at 1,200. The lukewarm demand in the month was somewhat expected in front of the P85D launch.
- In regard to the P85D, the enthusiasts at the Tesla Motors Club blog have spotted the new model on the streets already.
- The automaker confirms it opened two supercharger locations in Australia as it begins to build a network in the region.
Mon, Dec. 8, 10:45 AM
- New data from Truecar.com indicates more than one million cars with a transaction price over $50K will be sold this year.
- Sales at the price point are up 30.8% through November compared to a year ago.
- Transactions for cars below the $50K level were up 4.1% for the same time period.
- Detroit automakers (GM, F, FCAU) have big plans for the Cadillac, Lincoln, and Fiat brands in the U.S. in 2015.
- Meanwhile, German automakers (OTCPK:DDAIF, OTCPK:BAMXY, OTCQX:VLKAY) are all increasing production capacity in the U.S. based on forecasts for strong high-end sales growth.
- Strong demand in the U.S. for cars priced over $50K also bodes well for Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA).
Wed, Dec. 3, 2:00 PM
- A research paper published in the Advanced Energy Materials journal last month suggests a new electrode design utilizing nanoparticles could dramatically reduce charging times for lithium-ion batteries.
- Detailed tests by the academic researchers indicated that an experimental "porous interconnected" tin-oxide anode could be charged in 30 minutes with the same capacity as a 10-hour charge under the old design.
- The development could have implications some day for Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Panasonic (OTCPK:PCRFY) with their lofty Gigafactory goals.
Tue, Dec. 2, 3:19 PM| 78 Comments
Mon, Dec. 1, 11:45 AM
- Tesla Motors (TSLA -5.6%) slides to the $230 level as lower oil prices continue to be a factor for the EV automaker.
- There's also a probing article out from SA contributor Alberto Zaragoza Comendador.
- After Comendador asks how Tesla earned $204M in Europe last quarter from selling 1,061 Model S cars, a lively round of number-crunching breaks out in the comment stream.
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