- Jeep and Tesla had similar worldwide unit growth sales rates in 2014, 39% and 42%.
- Adjusting for price per car, and discussing future growth rates and profitability, Jeep could be worth anywhere from $20 billion to $200 billion.
- FCA, which owns Jeep, could spin off Jeep for a massive increase in shareholder value. Where is Carl Icahn when we need him?
- I tested the all-new Jeep Renegade for a day and was very impressed. Perhaps it could sell 200,000 units worldwide in 2015.
- If Jeep sells 200,000 Renegades worldwide in its first year, why wouldn’t that franchise alone be worth as much as Tesla?
BMW And Volkswagen Join Forces To Take On Tesla's Supercharger Network
- Volkswagen and BMW join with ChargePoint to build a supercharging network to compete with Tesla.
- In this first instance, the network is rather small with only 100 ports in the Boston-Washington, D.C. and Portland-San Diego corridors.
- For this and other reasons, it doesn’t match Tesla’s road trip capabilities today.
- However, it’s easy to see that other major automakers such as GM, Ford and Nissan will join this effort in the next 1-2 years.
- By 2017, we could be looking at announcing closer to 10,000 ports from a network like this, easily surpassing Tesla.
- The auto industry forecasts solid growth in 2015.
- Elon Musk's comments on a weakening China have sparked concern over international growth for Tesla.
- However, a strong domestic luxury sector might help Tesla's US sales accommodate lost growth abroad.
What Did Tesla Tell Its Analysts And Largest Shareholders?
- On January 13, Tesla’s CEO made public statements about the company’s earnings prospects.
- He said to expect no profits until 2020, or at least no GAAP profits. That appears to be radical new guidance.
- Yet, sell-side analysts aren’t changing their estimates at all, let alone radically.
- Therefore, we must ask what was said in those phone calls between Tesla and its analysts and major shareholders following the CEO’s remarks?
- Such walk-back of the CEO’s publicly-issued guidance must not be allowed to be done over the phone to the favored few. Issue a press release or 8-K.
- Questionable actions by the rock star CEO are starting to impact the stock after getting a pass for years.
- Fears of increasing competition are likely to weigh on the stock whether the threats turn out relevant or not.
- The market is starting to question the vast valuation premium on Tesla and that is more important than the quality of the cars.
Detroit Auto Show: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly And Tesla
- Automakers talked about inexpensive pure electric cars with longer range, many likely available by 2017 before Tesla’s Model 3.
- Several new plug-in hybrids will be coming from BMW, Chevrolet, Cadillac, Volvo, Mercedes, Mitsubishi, Audi, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Chrysler and Porsche.
- Buick, Chevrolet, Volkswagen and Hyundai unveiled interesting new concept cars.
- Automated driving is a huge focus, and it will happen in many steps, with the first cars from Mercedes already on the market today.
- Automakers are raising their standards, and we should see a new wave of extremely attractive cars being launched in 2016, 2017 and 2018.
- Tesla has long had a penchant for limited disclosure, reflected in its lack of monthly sales data.
- However, increasingly Tesla is disclosing less and less information about its operations.
- It turns out there's a pattern to this reduced disclosure.
- And furthermore, a new piece of data seems to have stopped being disclosed, with potential implications.
- My case against the Tesla bubble appears stronger because of statements from CEO Elon Musk that indicate weaker sales in China and that Tesla won't be profitable until 2020.
- Historic pronouncements by Musk and Tesla's share price demonstrate an unhealthy relationship.
- Tesla will remain volatile until it begins to trade on fundamentals and not on pronouncements by Musk.
Before You Short Tesla Remember This: Tesla Is Selling A Brand, Not A Car
- General Motors has announced it will release a new all-electric car, named the Bolt.
- The Bolt is aimed to compete with Tesla's Model 3 at a similar price point.
- This could be described as a negative catalyst for Tesla, with some recent articles making the case for a short sale.
- This article questions the materiality of this development to Tesla's earnings and whether selling Tesla short is a good bet.
- One year ago, Tesla gave its December sales number at the Detroit Auto Show.
- Yesterday, at a separate conference in Detroit, Tesla’s CEO did not want to give out the December sales number.
- However, he said that sales in China had been bad.
- He said that sales elsewhere had more than made up for the China shortfall, so that would indicate beating December guidance.
- He talked about losses until 2020, at least on a GAAP basis. It was unclear to me whether this was new guidance.
Tesla China Problem - Elon Musk Admits Sales Are Down
- Tesla trades at a high valuation.
- Sales are down in China, which is supposed to be a growth market for Tesla.
- Tesla is down 6% after hours, could trade down more.
Tesla's Latest Sales Projection For 2025 Is Next To Impossible To Achieve
- Tesla CEO Elon Musk is making new predictions about Tesla reaching sales numbers of "a few million cars a year" by 2025.
- This is next to impossible to achieve even assuming extremely high and growing demand.
- Cap ex would need to rise to $20-30bn for new battery plants alone.
- Each huge battery plant takes about 3 years to build and 1 year to fully ramp up production.
- Tesla has a long history of over-promising on dates and numbers.
Tesla Will Set A New Model S U.S. Sales Record In Q4 2014
- The P85D was enough for Tesla to put to bed my own "peaked deliveries" thesis in Q4 2014.
- However, pent-up demand for what was mostly a new model, which prompted massive upgrades among Tesla's existing customer base, might be distorting this reading regarding deliveries.
- The heavily front-loaded P85D deliveries in Q4 2014 make it likely TSLA will beat EPS and revenue guidance for Q4 2014.
- Guidance for Q1 2015 still carries risk.
Why Falling Oil Prices Won't Stop Tesla Or EV Sales In General
- Since falling prices are meant to be a structural phenomenon, they shouldn’t result in a substantial market rebound in the form of a decrease of EV sales.
- One way to verify this reasoning would be to find no strong positive statistical correlation between oil prices and EV sales.
- The results of a chart and correlation analysis for Tesla, the U.S. EV market and the world EV market provide considerable support to my supposition.
- However, evidence that falling oil prices hurt sales of 6 (out of 19) models (most of which priced at less than $36,000) in the U.S. places doubts on Tesla’s prospects.
- In this context, two additional results suggest that consumers could still be willing to buy many EVs from Tesla as long as it keeps producing high-quality products.
How Will Tesla's Model 3 Fare Against Affordable High-Range EVs?
- General Motors is preparing to launch a 200-mile EV to compete against Tesla's Model 3.
- Tesla's comparative advantage won't disappear within two years.
- Competition is good for EV exposure.
- GM’s 200-mile electric car for $30,000 will be unveiled Monday morning in Detroit.
- I list the 12 things you need to know about it, mostly in terms of my predictions.
- What most people really want to know is the impact to Tesla. In brief, it is brutal. This is margin compression 101.
- Furthermore, if GM can deliver a 200-mile range EV for $30,000, Audi and others could do the same as well.
- Audi, not wanting to compete with GM for a $30,000 EV, could launch a 300-mile range EV for $45,000, based on this logic.
- Tesla Investors Are Focusing Too Much On the Short Term.
- At $210, the Risk/Reward is Favorable to Long Term Bulls.
- Tesla's stock has been in a lull due to a lack of new information about current demand for the Model S and future models.
- Tesla Investors Should Focus on the Future.
- I talked to several large automakers about their intentions to build a competitor to Tesla's supercharging network for long-distance EV travel.
- All of them said no, they don't want to be in that business.
- In my opinion, when they start head-to-head competition with Tesla as early as 2017, this lack of a competitive network will impede their sales.
- There is still time for them to build this network, either individually or jointly. But time is running out.
- Panasonic also had good things to say about Tesla, even though there weren't any new information per se. Still, a positive for Tesla.
- According to InsideEVs.com, Tesla sold a record 3,500 Model S vehicles in December, which puts total US sales for the Model S at an estimated 17,300 for the year.
- Other positive developments include larger general demand for electric vehicles and the beginning of construction on the new Gigafactory in Nevada.
- However, the Model X continues to face challenges and will only potentially begin delivery in Q3. Tesla's share price remains extremely volatile and has been hurt by low oil prices.
- If it does not start to show evidence to support sky-high expectations for the Model X and Model 3, 2015 may be the year Wall Street turns against Tesla.
Yesterday, 8:42 AM
- Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) aims to release the Model X SUV in China early in 2016, according to development exec Diarmuid O'Connell.
- The EV automaker will also introduce a dual-motor version of the Model S in the nation.
- Elon Musk warned at the Detroit Auto Show that Tesla's pace of sales in China was a bit behind original expectations.
- Previously: Tesla Motors roundup: Optimism, caution, and confusion (Jan. 21 2015)
- TSLA +0.2% premarket.
Wed, Jan. 21, 11:12 AM
- Morgan Stanley sticks with an Overweight rating on Tesla Motors (TSLA +2.2%) in a new note on the EV automaker.
- The investment firm lowers its price target by $10 to $280 after getting thrown off a bit by Elon Musk's projection of Tesla U.S. GAAP profitability in 2020 (MS had Tesla with $1.6B in GAAP profit by 2020).
- The Globe and Mail's Jeremy Cato thinks Tesla is exposed by Musk's prediction of delivering a "few million" vehicles by 2025. The writer notes industry veterans such as Nissan's Carlos Ghosn back the EV technology solidly without getting pinned down on sales projections.
- China remains a hard-to-grasp piece of the puzzle on Tesla (even to Musk). The cozy relationship between Google and SpaceX looks interesting with Tesla rival Leshi working on a new EV for the Chinese market with some help from the Mountain View company. Though Leshi hired a former Nissan top exec this week, most analysts see the company aiming at even higher pies in the sky than Tesla in China.
Tue, Jan. 20, 2:46 PM
- Global Equities Securities sticks with an Overweight rating and lofty $385 price target on Tesla Motors (TSLA -0.3%) as part of a new research report on the company.
- The investment firm predicts Tesla will create a unique energy storage industry through the Gigafactory development that could be worth as much as $50B.
- In its past bullish calls on Tesla, Global Equities took the long view that Model S demand is well-ahead of supply in dismissing quarterly production numbers.
Thu, Jan. 15, 8:08 AM
- "It’s time to introduce a hydrogen era," said Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo as he announced a government initiative to build out a self-service hydrogen network of stations.
- The development comes only two days after Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk called hydrogen a "dumb" energy storage system.
- Toyota (NYSE:TM) is the pioneer in the FCV field and is building 1.5K Mirai vehicles for the Japanese government. Though taking a cautious approach to rolling out production, the world's top-selling automaker isn't ruling out selling hydrogen cars in all markets eventually.
- Review: Car and Driver's deep dive into the Toyota Mirai FCV.
- Related: Toyota opens up 5680 patents on fuel-cell technology to other automakers.
- What to watch: Abe has endorsed larger fuel-cell subsidies than those offered for electric vehicles in China, Europe, and the U.S. Will more governments take a side in the hydrogen vs electric battle setting up in the automobile industry?
- Related stocks: F, GM, OTCPK:NSANY, OTCPK:BAMXY, OTCPK:DDAIF, KNDI, HMC, OTCPK:MZDAY, OTCPK:SZKMY, OTCPK:FUJHY, OTCPK:MMTOF
Wed, Jan. 14, 9:17 AM
Wed, Jan. 14, 8:34 AM
- Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) trades lower following Elon Musk's Detroit Auto Show talk as investors hone in on the pushed-out production timetable.
- The EV automaker could introduce the Model 3 by 2017, but high-volume production on the car appears to be further down the road.
- Musk sees a run-rate of a few million cars by 2025 and profits for the company by 2020.
- There's a dose of reality on the costs of the Gigfactory as well. The state of Nevada is in for a "few" hundred million - not the $1.5B which has been bandied around.
- Picking fights? Musk on Toyota's fuel-cell vehicles initiative: "If you're gonna pick an energy storage system, hydrogen is a dumb one."
- Reaction: Baird calls the slide in Tesla shares a knee-jerk reaction and thinks investors should buy at current levels.
- The investment firm has been in a solid defensive stance all week, titling a report on the GM electric Bolt development "I've Always Wanted a Chevy? We Think Not."
- TSLA -8.9% premarket to $186.05 vs. the consensus analyst PT of $273.08.
Tue, Jan. 13, 5:42 PM
Tue, Jan. 13, 5:14 PM
- Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk is making a highly-anticipated speech at the Detroit Auto Show in connection with the Automotive News World Congress.
- The headline revelation so far from Musk is that the EV automaker's pace of sales in China declined in Q4.
- He blames consumer misperceptions in the nation on the charging process for the fall.
- Other significant disclosures from the Tesla chief so far include a prediction that the company will reach a run rate of a few million cars by 2025.
- Musk also left open the possibility that Tesla could use franchised dealerships in the future.
- A line for bulls to latch onto: "We're going to keep driving our volumes higher and higher."
- Detroit Free Press live blog
- Previously: Highlights from the Detroit Auto Show (Jan. 12)
- TSLA -6.2% after-hours to $191.50.
Mon, Jan. 12, 1:48 PM
- Ford (NYSE:F): The big focus on the F-150 is far from unexpected, although a Truck of the Year award for the model provides a nice bit of timing. Other news from Ford includes a new GT super car, a look at the next-gen Ford AppLink platform, and a new carbon initiative.
- Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY): The automaker unveiled the Titan XD pickup truck at the show. The truck features 8-cylinders in a 6-cylinder segment. A dose of reality from Nissan as well. CEO Carlos Ghosn says 2015 could be a difficult year in the U.S. for the industry due to the high level of competition.
- Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA): Elon Musk will be in the house tomorrow. The automaker is highlighting its dual motor, autopilot technology, and Supercharger network at its display booth.
- General Motors: News from GM is largely focused on the new electric Bolt. Execs also reiterated the commitment to the Cadillac brand. $12B will go to develop 8 new models by 2020.
- Toyota (NYSE:TM): Close attention will be paid to the reception for the Japanese automaker's redesign of the Tacoma. The automaker faces new challengers in the small pickup segment.
- Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF): CEO Dieter Zetsche sees 4% growth the global market in 2015 - a mark above what most industry analysts forecast. The exec thinks Mercedes-Benz will have a big year in China.
- Volkswagen (OTCQX:VLKAY): A big win for the German automaker when the Golf was named the Car of the Year by NAIS. Execs call the achievement a starting point to get back on track in the U.S.
Mon, Jan. 12, 10:23 AM
- General Motors (GM -0.1%) calls the new Bolt concept a "game-changing" model in the EV segment.
- "Chevrolet believes electrification is a pillar of future transportation and needs to be affordable for a wider segment of customers," proclaims GM.
- The automaker plans to offer the model in all 50 states and in many global markets. That statement could indicate GM plans to partner with an existing retail chain in an ambitious charging station build-out initiative.
- A starting price of $30K for the Chevrolet Bolt is expected.
- The details on performance, style, tech features, and crossover aesthetics are quite impressive - although it's relevant to note that GM use the word "concept" 22 times in its press release.
- There's a vigorous debate on this 434-comment stream on the impact for Tesla Motors (TSLA -3.3%) and other EV manufacturers (TM, OTCPK:NSANY, OTCPK:BAMXY) from the Bolt development.
Sat, Jan. 10, 9:20 AM
- General Motors (NYSE:GM) plans to introduce a new all-electric model with a driving range of close to 200 miles.
- The automaker will unveil a concept version of the Chevrolet Bolt at the Detroit Auto Show next week.
- The Bolt will be priced in a range of $30K to $35K, below that of several other EV entries including the anticipated selling price of the Model 3 from Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA).
- A more advanced battery from LG Chem is promised than the one used in Chevrolet Volts.
- 2014 GM EV sales: Chevrolet Volt 18.8K, Cadillac ELR 1.31K (full EV report)
- Related stocks: OTCPK:BAMXY, OTCPK:NSANY, TM.
Thu, Jan. 8, 3:33 PM
- The Tesla Model X prototype made an appearance by the Panasonic booth at the CES show.
- There's been some expectation that the production version of the Model X will be unveiled by Tesla (TSLA) shortly with the EV automaker saying it aims to start deliveries to customers with orders on the books in Q3.
- Customers ordering the Model X now can expect delivery in early 2016.
- Tesla sleuths can go to work looking for anything new with this detailed video of the Model X at CES.
Wed, Jan. 7, 8:02 PM
- Sales of electric vehicles in the U.S. rose 23% to 119.7K in 2014, according to a summary from InsideEVs.com.
- December was the peak month of the year with EV sales of 12,784 units.
- 2014 EV sales by model (estimated): Nissan Leaf 30.2K, Chevrolet Volt 18.8K, Tesla Model S 17.3K, Toyota Prius 13.2K, Ford Fusion Energi 11.55K, Ford C-Max Energi 8.4K, BMW i3 6.09K, Smart ED 2.59K, Ford Focus Electric 1.96K, Fiat 500e 1.79K, Cadillac ELR 1.31K, Toyota RAV4 1.18K.
- Plug-in entries from Porsche, Honda, Kia, Volkswagen, and Mitsubishi all recorded sales of less than a thousand for the year.
- Related stocks: OTCPK:NSANY, GM, TSLA, TM, F, OTCPK:BAMXY, OTCPK:DDAIF, FCAU, OTC:HYMLF, OTCQX:VLKAY.
Tue, Jan. 6, 8:20 AM
- The spinoff of Ferrari could give Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) enough breathing room to seek a merger partner, according to auto industry analysts.
- The rising cost of developing clean cars in Europe and the U.S. sets the stage for automakers to join forces through mergers and extended partnerships.
- "Eventually it must happen," notes FCA chief Sergio Marchionne on the topic of mega-mergers.
- No company is too big to be ruled out of the merger discussions due to the benefits of scaling investment costs and matching strengths/weaknesses in Europe, Latin America, China, and the U.S, note insiders.
- Automakers: GM, F, TM, FCAU, HMC, OTCPK:NSANY, TSLA, OTCQX:VLKAY, OTCPK:DDAIF, OTC:HYMLF, OTCPK:BAMXY, OTCPK:FUJHY, OTCPK:MMTOF, OTCPK:PEUGF, OTC:RNSDF, TTM, KNDI. OTCPK:SZKMY, OTCPK:MZDAY.
Fri, Jan. 2, 11:14 AM
- Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) is down 3.34% on brisk volume to take shares to a two-week low.
- There was worrisome news from China this week for Tesla. An extension of EV subsidies impacts the EV automaker with domestic automakers getting a lift and warning signs on demand also emerged.
- The debate on the impact of falling oil prices also continues to swirl around Tesla with the national average for gas prices down to $2.23.
- Though market data shows that sales of EVs have fallen off relative to the industry average over the last few months amid oil's slide, there's plenty of analysis out there indicating the $70K Model S is more resilient to the $2 gas overhang than cheaper EVs.
Dec. 31, 2014, 9:04 AM
- A sobering comment from China Automobile Dealers Association deputy secretary general Luo Lei could give manufacturers pause heading into 2015.
- "Carmakers have high market expectations. But the reality is: supply exceeds demand," maintains Lei.
- Dealers in China have been complaining this year about problems clearing inventory, even in the luxury sector, amid an unbalanced push by automakers to meet targets.
- Also on the Chinese automobile market: China extends EV subsidies, High hopes for Chinese luxury automobile segment, Toyota to miss China 2014 sales goal.
- Related stocks: OTCPK:DDAIF, OTCPK:BAMXY, OTCQX:VLKAY, GM, OTCPK:NSANY, TM, TTM, F, HMC, TSLA, KNDI.
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