From other sites
at Zacks.com (Mon, 12:20PM)
at Benzinga.com (Fri, 3:14PM)
at Benzinga.com (Fri, 2:32PM)
at Benzinga.com (Fri, 1:48PM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 1:00PM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 12:58PM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 10:53AM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 1:02AM)
at Investor's Business Daily (Thu, 8:24PM)
at Zacks.com (Thu, 6:56PM)
- Tesla has emerged as a prime candidate for short sellers.
- Federal Reserve, Department of Energy and state-level tax policies will work in tandem to support the Tesla business model and the stock's performance.
- Tesla is a poor candidate for short sellers who may find themselves caught up in a squeeze.
- However, conservative investors should consider avoiding Tesla stock altogether.
- Oil continues to plunge, making Tesla less and less appealing to those wishing to save money on gas.
- The company's stock is trading at a large multiple despite a market that seems unsure of itself.
- We lower our price target from $210 to $185.
- I've already written on how Tesla being an early leader in a supposedly high-growth market (EVs) is no guarantee of victory.
- Lack of barriers to entry in the EV marketplace, together with no sustainable advantages for Tesla support this claim.
- In this article, I explore the opposite - whether there might be one thing where Tesla really might have an advantage over other automakers.
- Tesla shares, along with energy stocks have followed crashing oil prices.
- Tesla's business and product strategy may insulate it from the effects of cheaper oil and gasoline.
- Lower oil prices could portend the end of the age of oil, but cheap oil and gasoline could end Tesla if its performance car strategy fails.
- Tesla shares have fallen from a high of $291.42 in September to the $205 range, a drop of 30%.
- By a wide range of metrics, Tesla remains considerably overvalued.
- A whole host of problems will hold Tesla back.
- Although Tesla is a great company that offers a unique brand, this does not justify its current valuation.
- The recent selloff of Tesla Motors might be providing us with the opportunity to buy an excellent business at a fair price.
- A business is excellent if it has an enduring competitive advantage.
- Tesla's economic moat is owed to technical, business and human factors.
- In this article, I present each of the three factors and show that several aspects often overlooked by the majority of investors are fundamental pieces of Tesla's economic moat.
The One Variable That Will Determine Tesla's Future
- The one significant area where Tesla’s competitors have not announced the intent to compete is the long-distance road-trip charging network.
- If Tesla is left alone to offer this functionality, it will have an enduring advantage.
- If Tesla’s competitors spend the money to build a competitive long-distance road-trip charging network, Tesla’s remaining advantage will be gone.
- So what will Tesla’s competitors do? Time is running out.
Tesla: Implications Beyond The Electric Car Industry
- Tesla's true potential may not lie in its electric car business, but rather its future battery business.
- The Gigafactory has far-reaching implications that extend to all the way to the Utilities market.
- Tesla's union with SolarCity could drastically disrupt the electric power industry.
Leshi Is Moving Into Electric Vehicles: Negative Implication For Tesla
- Chinese software company Leshi is working on a new EV.
- Initial model could compete against TSLA in China in pricing and features.
- Leshi is looking to move beyond TV and STB. EVs may present a unique opportunity.
- Solid state batteries have been cited as a possible replacement for current lithium ion batteries.
- Solid state batteries for automotive applications are not currently feasible.
- Development of solid state batteries is a high risk effort that may never pay off.
- As such, they pose no threat to Tesla or the Gigafactory.
Cheap Oil May Affect 'Green Vehicle' Sales, But Probably Won't Affect Tesla Motors Sales
- Oil prices probably won't affect demand for Tesla Vehicles.
- BMW may have a big problem.
- The supply glut in oil may be a very good thing for Solar Power.
- Automatic lane change is dangerous and probably illegal without rear radar.
- According to a leading autonomous vehicle engineer, no radar currently in the market is useful for automatic lane change.
- The company has a history of announcing and then forgetting major features and projects.
Why Does Tesla Not Appear In The Detroit Auto Show Press Conference Schedule?
- Breaking with tradition, Tesla doesn’t appear on the Detroit Auto Show Press Conference schedule for January 12-13.
- Last year, Tesla preannounced positive December quarter sales at that event, after which the stock immediately skyrocketed.
- I interpret this to mean the December quarter is extremely back-end loaded and therefore likely on the weak side.
- Tesla was also expected by some to show either the future Model X and/or Model 3 cars at the Detroit Auto Show.
- However, showing one or both of those models would risk “Osbourneing” sales of the current Model S.
- There is yet another massive threat emerging for Tesla.
- This threat has little to nothing to do with demand or competition and everything to do with a choice Tesla made.
- Tesla's bet on its gigafactory creates a significant risk that an emerging technology might wipe it out.
How Tesla Motors Conforms To A 'Low R-Squared' Investing Philosophy
- With an R-Squared of 10.49%, the returns of Tesla Motors are highly uncorrelated with the price movements of the S&P 500.
- For the period 2011-14, Tesla's returns have been significantly higher than the calculated expected return of 0.08%, yielding a Jensen's Alpha of 0.24%.
- When compared to General Motors, Toyota and Ford, the beta values for all four companies are at a similar range.
- The Model 3 selling price is expensive for Indian consumers. The Indian government will find it difficult to subsidize the Model 3.
- Tesla will need investment to establish charging stations across India.
- The Indian electric car market isn't lucrative and declining crude oil prices will further weaken the market.
Wed, Nov. 19, 10:34 AM
- Tesla Motors (TSLA -4.1%) trades lower after Morgan Stanley lowers its forecast for 2015 Model X deliveries to 5K from 15K.
- The investment firm is now below the Street consensus with a 2015 EPS estimate of $2.45 on Tesla.
- Elon Musk has tweeted that rumors (MS reference) about the EV automaker canceling its Model X falcon wing door plan are false. Tesla labels the doors "falcon wing" because they are hinged near the roof and open up similar to DeLorean cars from the 1980s.
Fri, Nov. 14, 11:24 AM
- Tesla Motors (TSLA +0.9%) is offering discounts on some 2014 Model S vehicles, sources tell Consumer Reports.
- The publication says the Model S price cuts are being determined by the length of time since production and miles on the odometer.
- The development isn't completely shocking with rave reviews out for the 2015 Model S and plenty of anticipation for the Model X.
- Still, some Tesla watchers such as Stanphyl Capital Management are pointing at the "production-constrained" claims of Elon Musk in prior statements.
Thu, Nov. 13, 2:47 PM
- The top powertrain business development exec at Tesla Motors (TSLA +1.5%) says the automaker's storage battery system for residential solar rooftop setups will be ready in the second half of 2015.
- The comments from Mateo Jaramillo were made at the California Power and Gas Conference in San Francisco.
Wed, Nov. 12, 10:06 AM
- The landmark emissions deal struck between the U.S. and China has implications for the automobile industry even if it is largely symbolic, according to analysts.
- There's some speculation that bickering between the nations over spying and other free trade issues won't reel in China-Western auto joint ventures and impact government EV subsidies as the nation stays focused on pollution control.
- Automaker stocks: GM, F, TM, FCAU, HMC, OTCPK:NSANY, TSLA, OTCQX:VLKAY, OTCPK:DDAIF, OTC:HYMLF, OTCPK:BAMXY, OTC:KIMTF, OTCPK:MMTOF, OTCPK:PEUGF, TTM, TSLA.
Thu, Nov. 6, 8:22 AM
- Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk was pressed harder on production numbers during the automaker's earnings call than during previous quarterly calls.
- The exec says hitting the 50K Model S delivery mark in 2015 won't be "super hard" based on where the company is currently trending.
- On Model X production: Musk is quite hesitant to throw out any hard numbers with production still at risk of delays, although he notes he's confident demand will end up very high. The slight delay in the X launch is due to Tesla's quest for high standards. "It's hard to engineer and it's hard to produce," says Musk.
- On capital: "We don't see any near-term need to raise money," notes Musk.
- Earnings call transcript
- TSLA +2.80% premarket to $237.60.
Wed, Nov. 5, 4:36 PM
Wed, Nov. 5, 4:30 PM
- Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) says it delivered 7,785 Model S units in Q3 vs. company guidance of 7.8K and expectations from analysts in the 8K-8.2K range.
- As tipped in an Elon Musk tweet last week, deliveries in North America were up 65% Y/Y during the month of September.
- Non-GAAP gross margin was 23.0% vs. 26.8% in Q2 and 22% a year ago. Higher R&D expenses on the dual motor drive were a factor.
- Tesla took in $31M from powertrain sales during the quarter and $93M in regulatory credits.
- Guidance: Tesla expects to produce 35K for the full year and deliver 33K. Previous projections for 2015 are held firm. The automaker expects its non-GAAP gross margin rate to exceed 28% in Q4. Model X deliveries are slated to begin in Q3 of 2015, a few months back from initial projections.
- A conference call is scheduled for 5:30 PM ET (webcast).
- Tesla shareholder letter (.pdf)
- TSLA +4.8% AH to $242.00.
Mon, Nov. 3, 1:12 PM
- A review of the Tesla Motors (TSLA +0.7%) 2015 Model S P85D out from Motor Trend seems to back up the claims of Elon Musk on the lightning-fast acceleration of the vehicle.
- A 3.1-second 0-to-60 MPH time (almost F-1 territory) is recorded in testing of the +$100K sportscar.
- "Brace yourself, Teutonic Status Quo, because the quickest-accelerating sedan in the world isn't German anymore. It's from California," expounds MT.
- What to watch: Automobile insiders say the P85D is a brand builder, but the appeal of the Model X to the masses is still the essential variable to the Tesla equation.
Thu, Oct. 30, 9:09 AM
- How bad is the smog in Beijing?
- The China Fashion Week show in the nation's capital included the introduction of new lines of face masks from well-known designers.
- Twice this month smog in Beijing has soared past the 400 level on a pollution index which marks 300 as a hazardous level.
- The worsening smog situation in China has led many cities to take new measures to support the electric vehicle industry.
- Related stocks: F, GM, OTCQX:VLKAY, TSLA, TM, HMC, OTCPK:NSANY.
Wed, Oct. 29, 7:31 AM
- The city of Shanghai has exempted close to 400 Model S buyers in the region from paying $12K each for a license plate.
- The initiative by the local government falls in line with efforts by Beijing to promote the electric vehicle industry.
- Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) is in discussions with other major cities across China on scoring similar exemptions for buyers.
Tue, Oct. 28, 8:18 AM
- Shares of Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) move higher in early trading.
- CEO Elon Musk disclosed via Twitter that September sales for the EV automaker in North America were up 65% Y/Y to contradict a report from the WSJ and other news sources citing data from Ward's Auto showing a slowdown in the U.S.
- Another important distinction from Musk is that the US Bank leasing deal provides a better interest rate to Tesla buyers - but not lower revenue for the EV automaker.
- TSLA +3.5% premarket.
Mon, Oct. 27, 2:47 PM
- Shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA -5.5%) are volatile with talk building up that data from Ward's Auto shows slowing Model S demand in the U.S.
- Sources say the research firm tabulated a 26% Y/Y drop in unit sales for Tesla during September.
- There's already some bulls out defending Tesla, noting the month was expected to show a year-over-year drop.
- What to watch: Look for management commentary on the impact of the planned shutdown of Tesla's plant in Fremont this summer when the company reports Q3 earnings on November 5.
- Previously: The EV automaker announced a new leasing program featuring lower payments.
Mon, Oct. 27, 8:13 AM
- Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) announces a new leasing program is available for customers through US Bank.
- The terms of the lease deal allow customers to back out of their obligation within three months of purchasing a Model S if they aren't satisfied with the vehicle.
- Lease payments on a new Model S can be as much as 25% lower through the US Bank program, writes Elon Musk on Tesla's blog.
Fri, Oct. 24, 8:38 AM
- There's some speculation in the automobile sector that BMW (OTCPK:BAMXY) purchased the stake in Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) unloaded by Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF).
- The two automakers have long been linked as potential partners due to their complimentary strengths.
- Previous: Daimler unloads Tesla stake, Toyota sells Tesla shares.
- TSLA trades flat in premarket action.
Fri, Oct. 24, 1:52 AM
- Toyota (NYSE:TM) is now the next automaker to sell a stake in Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), although it did not disclose the timing or amount of the sale.
- Daimler unloaded its remaining 4% stake in the electric car earlier in the week for $780M.
- Toyota invested $50M in Tesla in May 2010 (giving it a 2.5% stake at the time), ahead of the company's IPO in June that year.
Wed, Oct. 22, 8:07 AM
- A new report from Advanced Automotive Batteries dissects Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) and its gigafactory battery project.
- It's quickly noted that most major automakers are designing EVs around government mandates instead of looking to be transformative.
- The research firm forecasts Tesla and Panasonic (OTCPK:PCRFY) will strike a deal which will stage in Panasonic's investments through 5- to 10-GWh plant capacity additions at a time.
- Cost reduction benefits from the gigafactory are expected to kick in after 2018.
- Tesla's annual unit sales could eclipse the 200K level by 2020 if demand in China is strong.
- Extracts from Tesla battery report (.pdf)
TSLA vs. ETF Alternatives
Other News & PR