Dec. 23, 2014, 7:25 PM
- It’s pretty clear why many energy stocks are hurting amid falling crude oil prices, but Morgan Stanley has researched across industries to determine some less clear-cut winners and losers.
- Airlines consume huge amounts of fuel, but the firm says American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) and Allegiant Travel (NASDAQ:ALGT) should benefit more than most from lower oil prices since they do not hedge the price of fuel to reduce price volatility.
- Among autos, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) draws concern because "lower-for-longer oil certainly hurts the case for mass-market adoption of electric vehicles.”
- Since lower gas prices should reduce shipping costs, Stanley sees the benefit trickling into Q1 per-unit shipping costs at Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).
- The firm likes Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST) on the idea that Americans getting cheaper gas might be more ready to splurge on energy drinks, and gas stations and convenience stores account for 75% of MNST’s sales.
- Among apparel companies and retailers, Stanley likes brands that are most popular with lower-income consumers, who they believe are most likely to put the money they save into new purchases: PLCE, FL, FINL, BWS, SKUL, ARO, BURL, ROST.
Dec. 19, 2014, 5:58 PM
- Consumer spending in several areas is likely to benefit from lower pump prices, but J.P. Morgan's Ryan Brinkman thinks the auto industry may benefit more than most from consumers having more money to spend on all things apart from fuel.
- The analyst sees Goodyear Tire (NASDAQ:GT), American Axle (NYSE:AXL), GM and Ford (NYSE:F) - in that order - as best positioned to benefit, followed by suppliers with material exposure to full-size trucks and SUVs that is not as great as AXL, including Tenneco (NYSE:TEN), Lear (NYSE:LEA) and Tower International (NYSE:TOWR).
- Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is an exception, however, as Brinkman sees a potential reduction in the terminal value of cash flows on his reduced outlook for Model 3 vehicles if fuel prices remain low longer-term.
Dec. 19, 2014, 4:11 PM
- Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) is out with more details on the new battery swap pilot program set to launch.
- Select Model S owners will be give the chance to test the service at a new facility in Harris Ranch, California
- The EV automaker says the battery switch will take three minutes.
- If Tesla determines that there is sufficient demand, it will invest in automation and design upgrades to cut down the swap process to under a minute.
Dec. 19, 2014, 2:17 PM
- The age of connected cars appears closer with Google pushing forward with its next-gen Android M software designed to be integrated into automobiles.
- The industry has a bit of an uneasy relationship with Google, despite the company's open-source approach to the technology.
- Though most major automakers collaborate with Google through the Open Automotive Alliance - which aims for a common platform to drive innovation - the self-driving car initiative of Google and their own infotainment ambitions keep them wary.
- Analysts originally forecast vehicle-to-vehicle communication would be part of the connected car concept and be integrated into some models by 2016, although that timetable now appears unlikely.
- What to watch: Before any major breakthrough occurs, the DOT needs to weigh in on next-gen connected cars. That gets trickier with safety and security concerns teed up again after the high-profile GM recall debacle and crippling Sony hacking incident.
- Automaker stocks: GM, F, TM, HMC, OTCPK:NSANY, TSLA, OTCQX:VLKAY, OTCPK:DDAIF, OTC:HYMLF, OTCPK:BAMXY, OTCPK:MMTOF, OTCPK:PEUGF, OTC:RNSDF, TTM, OTCPK:MMTOF, OTCPK:SZKMY, OTCPK:FUJHY, OTC:RNSDF, OTCPK:GELYF, FCAU.
Dec. 19, 2014, 11:19 AM| 95 Comments
Dec. 17, 2014, 8:32 AM
- Morgan Stanley is out with new long-term production estimates on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA).
- Analyst Adam Jonas lowers the 2018 forecast for Model 3 volume to ~40K.
- The outlook for 2020 deliveries is dropped to 297K vs. Tesla's target of 500K.
- The lowered expectations from MS on production are counterbalanced to a degree by the higher average transaction price it sees as the sales mix stays shifted toward the luxury segment.
- The price target on Overweight-rated TSLA is taken to $290 from $320 by MS.
- Tesla's dip below $200 drew out 187 comments yesterday on SA from bulls and bears
- TSLA -1.8% premarket to $194.20.
Dec. 16, 2014, 9:59 AM
- Shares of Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) dipped below $200 in premarket trading before pulling back over the threshold. Tesla hasn't closed below $200 since May.
- The stock is ~31% off its 52-week high as the production timetable of the EV automaker's Model X becomes clearer and factors into estimates.
- The lower price of gas in the U.S. isn't an overriding concern for Tesla, say many automobile analysts.They note Tesla buyers aren't typically the penny-watching types.
- There was good news on the Gigfactory front after city officials in Reno and Sparks exuded confidence at a County Commission meeting that the region can support the massive plant.
- Tesla is now down 1.08% to $201.54.
Dec. 12, 2014, 8:53 AM
- Veronica Wu has been with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) for over a year, but will leave the company in the coming days, reports the WSJ, and confirmed by Tesla.
- Tom Zhu - currently in charge of Tesla's supercharging network in China - will assume responsibility for operational leadership in the country, says the company.
- Wu's exit comes shortly after the resignation of Tesla's China chief of communications, Peggy Yang.
- Shares -1.8% premarket
Dec. 9, 2014, 7:05 PM
- Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) late push into the green helped shares avoid a company record eighth straight down day, amid talk that the severe decline in oil prices has been taking a toll on TSLA; the thinking is that car buyers would be less adamant about fuel efficiency when the price at the pump drops.
- But Bespoke researchers say the correlation between TSLA's stock and the price of oil has been changing slowly for years, and “over the last six months... they have moved completely independent of each other on a day-to-day basis.”
- Among the "real" reasons cited for the recent declines: recent media reports in Germany that cooled excitement about a potential partnership between with BMW, a lower than previously announced driving range for the new P85D, and broad losses among momentum stocks.
- TSLA still trades at more than 70x next years projected earnings, but bulls look ahead to 2017 when the company’s Model 3 is scheduled to hit showrooms; Bespoke also likes TSLA’s long-term prospects but says the stock will suffer downswings "like the one it is currently experiencing.”
Dec. 9, 2014, 10:20 AM
- Tesla Motors (TSLA -3.2%) trades lower as the impact of lower oil prices on demand continues to be hotly debated.
- InsideEvs pegs the number of U.S. Model S sales in November at 1,200. The lukewarm demand in the month was somewhat expected in front of the P85D launch.
- In regard to the P85D, the enthusiasts at the Tesla Motors Club blog have spotted the new model on the streets already.
- The automaker confirms it opened two supercharger locations in Australia as it begins to build a network in the region.
Dec. 8, 2014, 10:45 AM
- New data from Truecar.com indicates more than one million cars with a transaction price over $50K will be sold this year.
- Sales at the price point are up 30.8% through November compared to a year ago.
- Transactions for cars below the $50K level were up 4.1% for the same time period.
- Detroit automakers (GM, F, FCAU) have big plans for the Cadillac, Lincoln, and Fiat brands in the U.S. in 2015.
- Meanwhile, German automakers (OTCPK:DDAIF, OTCPK:BAMXY, OTCQX:VLKAY) are all increasing production capacity in the U.S. based on forecasts for strong high-end sales growth.
- Strong demand in the U.S. for cars priced over $50K also bodes well for Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA).
Dec. 3, 2014, 2:00 PM
- A research paper published in the Advanced Energy Materials journal last month suggests a new electrode design utilizing nanoparticles could dramatically reduce charging times for lithium-ion batteries.
- Detailed tests by the academic researchers indicated that an experimental "porous interconnected" tin-oxide anode could be charged in 30 minutes with the same capacity as a 10-hour charge under the old design.
- The development could have implications some day for Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Panasonic (OTCPK:PCRFY) with their lofty Gigafactory goals.
Dec. 2, 2014, 3:19 PM| 78 Comments
Dec. 1, 2014, 11:45 AM
- Tesla Motors (TSLA -5.6%) slides to the $230 level as lower oil prices continue to be a factor for the EV automaker.
- There's also a probing article out from SA contributor Alberto Zaragoza Comendador.
- After Comendador asks how Tesla earned $204M in Europe last quarter from selling 1,061 Model S cars, a lively round of number-crunching breaks out in the comment stream.
Nov. 28, 2014, 12:19 PM
Nov. 28, 2014, 11:05 AM
- Automobile stocks are higher as a group after oil prices slide.
- General Motors (NYSE:GM) is up 2.3% and Toyota is 1.1% higher, while shares of Ford (NYSE:F) are just poking out a modest 0.1% gain.
- There's some concerns that Ford's big bet on aluminum loses some of its relevance if gas prices shoot lower.
- Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF) and BMW (OTCPK:BAMXY) are both beating broad market averages with +1% gains.
- EV automaker Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) is down 2.1% on the day.
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