- Jeep and Tesla had similar worldwide unit growth sales rates in 2014, 39% and 42%.
- Adjusting for price per car, and discussing future growth rates and profitability, Jeep could be worth anywhere from $20 billion to $200 billion.
- FCA, which owns Jeep, could spin off Jeep for a massive increase in shareholder value. Where is Carl Icahn when we need him?
- I tested the all-new Jeep Renegade for a day and was very impressed. Perhaps it could sell 200,000 units worldwide in 2015.
- If Jeep sells 200,000 Renegades worldwide in its first year, why wouldn’t that franchise alone be worth as much as Tesla?
BMW And Volkswagen Join Forces To Take On Tesla's Supercharger Network
- Volkswagen and BMW join with ChargePoint to build a supercharging network to compete with Tesla.
- In this first instance, the network is rather small with only 100 ports in the Boston-Washington, D.C. and Portland-San Diego corridors.
- For this and other reasons, it doesn’t match Tesla’s road trip capabilities today.
- However, it’s easy to see that other major automakers such as GM, Ford and Nissan will join this effort in the next 1-2 years.
- By 2017, we could be looking at announcing closer to 10,000 ports from a network like this, easily surpassing Tesla.
- The auto industry forecasts solid growth in 2015.
- Elon Musk's comments on a weakening China have sparked concern over international growth for Tesla.
- However, a strong domestic luxury sector might help Tesla's US sales accommodate lost growth abroad.
What Did Tesla Tell Its Analysts And Largest Shareholders?
- On January 13, Tesla’s CEO made public statements about the company’s earnings prospects.
- He said to expect no profits until 2020, or at least no GAAP profits. That appears to be radical new guidance.
- Yet, sell-side analysts aren’t changing their estimates at all, let alone radically.
- Therefore, we must ask what was said in those phone calls between Tesla and its analysts and major shareholders following the CEO’s remarks?
- Such walk-back of the CEO’s publicly-issued guidance must not be allowed to be done over the phone to the favored few. Issue a press release or 8-K.
- Questionable actions by the rock star CEO are starting to impact the stock after getting a pass for years.
- Fears of increasing competition are likely to weigh on the stock whether the threats turn out relevant or not.
- The market is starting to question the vast valuation premium on Tesla and that is more important than the quality of the cars.
Detroit Auto Show: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly And Tesla
- Automakers talked about inexpensive pure electric cars with longer range, many likely available by 2017 before Tesla’s Model 3.
- Several new plug-in hybrids will be coming from BMW, Chevrolet, Cadillac, Volvo, Mercedes, Mitsubishi, Audi, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Chrysler and Porsche.
- Buick, Chevrolet, Volkswagen and Hyundai unveiled interesting new concept cars.
- Automated driving is a huge focus, and it will happen in many steps, with the first cars from Mercedes already on the market today.
- Automakers are raising their standards, and we should see a new wave of extremely attractive cars being launched in 2016, 2017 and 2018.
- Tesla has long had a penchant for limited disclosure, reflected in its lack of monthly sales data.
- However, increasingly Tesla is disclosing less and less information about its operations.
- It turns out there's a pattern to this reduced disclosure.
- And furthermore, a new piece of data seems to have stopped being disclosed, with potential implications.
- My case against the Tesla bubble appears stronger because of statements from CEO Elon Musk that indicate weaker sales in China and that Tesla won't be profitable until 2020.
- Historic pronouncements by Musk and Tesla's share price demonstrate an unhealthy relationship.
- Tesla will remain volatile until it begins to trade on fundamentals and not on pronouncements by Musk.
Before You Short Tesla Remember This: Tesla Is Selling A Brand, Not A Car
- General Motors has announced it will release a new all-electric car, named the Bolt.
- The Bolt is aimed to compete with Tesla's Model 3 at a similar price point.
- This could be described as a negative catalyst for Tesla, with some recent articles making the case for a short sale.
- This article questions the materiality of this development to Tesla's earnings and whether selling Tesla short is a good bet.
- One year ago, Tesla gave its December sales number at the Detroit Auto Show.
- Yesterday, at a separate conference in Detroit, Tesla’s CEO did not want to give out the December sales number.
- However, he said that sales in China had been bad.
- He said that sales elsewhere had more than made up for the China shortfall, so that would indicate beating December guidance.
- He talked about losses until 2020, at least on a GAAP basis. It was unclear to me whether this was new guidance.
Tesla China Problem - Elon Musk Admits Sales Are Down
- Tesla trades at a high valuation.
- Sales are down in China, which is supposed to be a growth market for Tesla.
- Tesla is down 6% after hours, could trade down more.
Tesla's Latest Sales Projection For 2025 Is Next To Impossible To Achieve
- Tesla CEO Elon Musk is making new predictions about Tesla reaching sales numbers of "a few million cars a year" by 2025.
- This is next to impossible to achieve even assuming extremely high and growing demand.
- Cap ex would need to rise to $20-30bn for new battery plants alone.
- Each huge battery plant takes about 3 years to build and 1 year to fully ramp up production.
- Tesla has a long history of over-promising on dates and numbers.
Tesla Will Set A New Model S U.S. Sales Record In Q4 2014
- The P85D was enough for Tesla to put to bed my own "peaked deliveries" thesis in Q4 2014.
- However, pent-up demand for what was mostly a new model, which prompted massive upgrades among Tesla's existing customer base, might be distorting this reading regarding deliveries.
- The heavily front-loaded P85D deliveries in Q4 2014 make it likely TSLA will beat EPS and revenue guidance for Q4 2014.
- Guidance for Q1 2015 still carries risk.
Why Falling Oil Prices Won't Stop Tesla Or EV Sales In General
- Since falling prices are meant to be a structural phenomenon, they shouldn’t result in a substantial market rebound in the form of a decrease of EV sales.
- One way to verify this reasoning would be to find no strong positive statistical correlation between oil prices and EV sales.
- The results of a chart and correlation analysis for Tesla, the U.S. EV market and the world EV market provide considerable support to my supposition.
- However, evidence that falling oil prices hurt sales of 6 (out of 19) models (most of which priced at less than $36,000) in the U.S. places doubts on Tesla’s prospects.
- In this context, two additional results suggest that consumers could still be willing to buy many EVs from Tesla as long as it keeps producing high-quality products.
How Will Tesla's Model 3 Fare Against Affordable High-Range EVs?
- General Motors is preparing to launch a 200-mile EV to compete against Tesla's Model 3.
- Tesla's comparative advantage won't disappear within two years.
- Competition is good for EV exposure.
- GM’s 200-mile electric car for $30,000 will be unveiled Monday morning in Detroit.
- I list the 12 things you need to know about it, mostly in terms of my predictions.
- What most people really want to know is the impact to Tesla. In brief, it is brutal. This is margin compression 101.
- Furthermore, if GM can deliver a 200-mile range EV for $30,000, Audi and others could do the same as well.
- Audi, not wanting to compete with GM for a $30,000 EV, could launch a 300-mile range EV for $45,000, based on this logic.
- Tesla Investors Are Focusing Too Much On the Short Term.
- At $210, the Risk/Reward is Favorable to Long Term Bulls.
- Tesla's stock has been in a lull due to a lack of new information about current demand for the Model S and future models.
- Tesla Investors Should Focus on the Future.
- I talked to several large automakers about their intentions to build a competitor to Tesla's supercharging network for long-distance EV travel.
- All of them said no, they don't want to be in that business.
- In my opinion, when they start head-to-head competition with Tesla as early as 2017, this lack of a competitive network will impede their sales.
- There is still time for them to build this network, either individually or jointly. But time is running out.
- Panasonic also had good things to say about Tesla, even though there weren't any new information per se. Still, a positive for Tesla.
- According to InsideEVs.com, Tesla sold a record 3,500 Model S vehicles in December, which puts total US sales for the Model S at an estimated 17,300 for the year.
- Other positive developments include larger general demand for electric vehicles and the beginning of construction on the new Gigafactory in Nevada.
- However, the Model X continues to face challenges and will only potentially begin delivery in Q3. Tesla's share price remains extremely volatile and has been hurt by low oil prices.
- If it does not start to show evidence to support sky-high expectations for the Model X and Model 3, 2015 may be the year Wall Street turns against Tesla.
Nov. 5, 2014, 4:36 PM
Nov. 5, 2014, 4:30 PM
- Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) says it delivered 7,785 Model S units in Q3 vs. company guidance of 7.8K and expectations from analysts in the 8K-8.2K range.
- As tipped in an Elon Musk tweet last week, deliveries in North America were up 65% Y/Y during the month of September.
- Non-GAAP gross margin was 23.0% vs. 26.8% in Q2 and 22% a year ago. Higher R&D expenses on the dual motor drive were a factor.
- Tesla took in $31M from powertrain sales during the quarter and $93M in regulatory credits.
- Guidance: Tesla expects to produce 35K for the full year and deliver 33K. Previous projections for 2015 are held firm. The automaker expects its non-GAAP gross margin rate to exceed 28% in Q4. Model X deliveries are slated to begin in Q3 of 2015, a few months back from initial projections.
- A conference call is scheduled for 5:30 PM ET (webcast).
- Tesla shareholder letter (.pdf)
- TSLA +4.8% AH to $242.00.
Jul. 31, 2014, 4:19 PM
- Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) beats estimates in Q2 and delivers some re-assuring production guidance.
- The EV automaker had 7,579 delivers in Q2 vs. 7,546 consensus.
- Revenue for the quarter included $23M from Daimler and Toyota for powertrain purchases.
- The gross margin rate of 26.8% in Q2 is in-line with the forecast of analysts and leaves Tesla with a little bit of catching up to do in 2H to meet its 28% target for the year.
- Production guidance for Q3 is for 7,800 Model S deliveries. The mark is below expectations with the company citing a two-week production shutdown at its Fremont factory as the reason for the anticipated shortfall.
- Tesla says it expects a delivery rate of over 100K unit by the end of next year if there are no serious macroeconomic calamities.
- Ground has broken in Nevada on a "potential" Gigafactory site.
- Tesla Motor letter to shareholders (.pdf)
- TSLA +2.1% AH to $228.01.
Jul. 31, 2014, 4:08 PM
May. 7, 2014, 4:22 PM
- Tesla (TSLA) produced 7,535 Model S units in Q1, up from Q4's 6,587 and above guidance of 7,400. The company delivered 6,457 units, slightly above guidance of 6,400 but below Q4's 6,892.
- Tesla expects to produce 8.5K-9K Model S units in Q2, and to deliver 7,500. Leases are only expected to account for ~200 deliveries due to lead times.
- Gross margin was 25.4%, +20 bps Q/Q in spite of a $2M reserve for underbody shield retrofits. GM is expected to improve slightly Q/Q in Q2, and to reach 28% in Q4.
- SG&A spend rose 150% Y/Y to $117.6M, R&D spend rose 17% Q/Q and 48% Y/Y to $81.5M. SG&A is expected to grow 15% Q/Q, and R&D 30%.
- Operating cash flow was $61M, and capex totaled $141M. The full-year capex forecast is still at $650M-$850M.
- The company expects to be "marginally profitable" in Q2; the EPS consensus is at $0.27. Full-year free cash flow is expected to be slightly negative.
- Shares -4.9% AH
- Q1 results, shareholder letter (.pdf)
May. 7, 2014, 4:08 PM
Feb. 19, 2014, 4:09 PM
Feb. 19, 2014, 12:10 AM| 5 Comments
Feb. 18, 2014, 5:35 PM| Comment!
Nov. 5, 2013, 4:36 PM
- Tesla Motors (TSLA) says excluding the much-dissected ZEV revenue it grew non-GAAP revenue by 18% Q/Q during Q3.
- Development work on the Model X has accelerated which accounted for some of the R&D spend.
- The company thinks further gross margin improvements beyond the targeted 25% mark are "likely" and sees Q4 capex spending of $75M-$85M.
- Letter to shareholders (.pdf)
- TSLA -10.1% AH as the automaker didn't quite dazzle with its production numbers for Q3 and target for Q4 while staying mum on 2014 until the conference call.
Nov. 5, 2013, 4:10 PM
Aug. 7, 2013, 4:19 PM| 66 Comments
Aug. 7, 2013, 4:13 PM
May. 8, 2013, 4:50 PMMore on Tesla Motors' (TSLA) Q1: The company says it produced over 5K Model S vehicles during the period to beat its early production estimate. As production rose, efficiencies kicked in and helped gross margin double Q/Q to 17%. In Q2, Tesla sees delivering just over 4.5K vehicles in North America and thinks it will beat its full year 20K vehicle delivery estimate. The next quarter will also see a moderate pickup in operational expenses and R&D expenses. TSLA +15.2% AH. (shareholder letter .pdf) | 19 Comments
May. 8, 2013, 4:41 PM
May. 8, 2013, 12:10 AMNotable earnings after Wednesday’s close: AHT, ALJ, ATLS, ATVI, AVNR, CF, CLNE, CLR, CTL, CTRP, CUZ, CXW, DEPO, DK, ERII, ETE, ETP, GMCR, GRPN, GSS, HALO, HEK, HNSN, JOE, LPSN, MBLX, MDR, MED, MIDD, MM, MNST, MNTX, MWE, NWSA, OSUR, PPO, PVA, QTM, RAX, RGP, RIG, RST, SGMO, SPRD, SSRI, STEC, SXL, SZYM, TCAP, TSLA, WR, XTEX | Comment!
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