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TSLA
Tesla Motors - NASDAQ

4/18/2014, 8:27 PM ET
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Other Articles
  • Tesla In China: Cleaning Up The Smoggy Skies
    Terracotta Capital Tue, Apr. 15 255 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla goes on sale in China this month with a price point comparable to competing luxury models such as Mercedes, BMW and Lexus.
    • I see demand from high-end car buyers and the expected partnership with Sinopec to be near-term drivers for the demand in China.
    • Long-term drivers are continued expansion of charging stations and JV with local auto maker or component supplier to attract a broader customer base.
  • Tesla Kicks China Plans Into High Gear
    Quoth the Raven Mon, Apr. 14 169 Comments

    Summary

    • Momentum stocks will be in focus to start the week.
    • Tesla is beginning sales in China and identifying partners for their charging stations.
    • In the short-term and long-term, Tesla has positive catalysts coming down the road if they continue to execute.
  • Tesla: Don't Say You Never Had A Dip To Buy On
    Quoth the Raven Fri, Apr. 11 156 Comments

    Summary

    • Momentum stocks have been crushed over the last month.
    • Tesla has pulled back about 15% in the last month.
    • This represents a continued buying opportunity for those who share my long-term view for Tesla.
  • Tesla - 20 Key Risks That Longs Are Ignoring

    Summary

    • Tesla, considering its nearly $27,000,000,000 market cap, is priced to perfection.
    • When a company is priced to perfection, the smallest change in investor sentiment can have large consequences on the stock price.
    • Longs currently are ignoring 20 key risks facing Tesla; once the market rationally assesses these risks, Tesla's stock will be repriced much lower.
    • Even if each risk has a 90% chance of NOT occurring, the odds that all 20 risks will not occur is only 12%.
  • Tesla Shorts Are Running Away
    Bill Maurer Thu, Apr. 10 43 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla short interest dropped by nearly 2.9 million shares in late March.
    • Short interest down 18.56% in 2014, at lowest point in 9 updates.
    • EPS estimates for 2014 and 2015 have trickled down some more.
    • Stock currently in the middle of its recent range.
  • Silence On Gigafactory Partnerships Suggest Tesla Might Be A Near-Term Short
    Michael Blair Wed, Apr. 9 78 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla's ambitious $5 billion Gigafactory is too big for Tesla alone.
    • Tesla's $2 billion bond issue was a big step forward.
    • Since that issue closed, industry executives have expressed skepticism.
    • No follow-through on partnerships suggests the project might face delay.
  • Tesla Motors Facing Headwinds, But Still Deserves A Long-Term Investment

    Summary

    • Tesla Motors is facing some issues regarding its “Giga Factory.”.
    • Panasonic still not made any commitments regarding a partnership with Tesla.
    • Supply Chain requirements for the factory have also caused some handwringing due to higher prices and pollution concerns.
    • Investigations have been closed against Tesla regarding its Model S and Tesla has brought forward more robust safety measures for the model.
    • Tesla’s general manager in China has left the company while the company was striving to expand in China’s auto market.
  • GM's Ignition Vs. Tesla's Titanium And 'Befuddling' Peak Deliveries
    Siddharth Dalal Tue, Apr. 8 253 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla's titanium underbody should be a minor cost and is a major publicity win for Tesla.
    • GM's ongoing recall woes could have a long term detrimental impact on the company.
    • The close proximity of these events are a long-term negative for the auto dealer lobby and positive for the direct sales model.
    • Tesla should beat this quarter's guidance based on available sales data. Have Model S deliveries in the US really peaked?
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce?
    John Petersen Tue, Apr. 8 850 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla Motors' planned gigafactory has the potential to reduce cell-manufacturing costs by up to 30% through vertical integration at massive scale, or VIMS.
    • VIMS is only profitable in cases where the product will not change in the foreseeable future and the factory owner has an assured market for all production.
    • There is no reason to believe electronics manufacturers will revert to “iChubby” product designs to save a couple bucks per unit on batteries imported from the US.
    • SolarCity will probably be a customer while it tries to develop markets for energy storage products, but it will need a reliable independent supply chain if it succeeds.
    • If Tesla builds a gigafactory in cooperation with battery industry partners, their profit shares will probably absorb the bulk of any manufacturing cost savings.
  • Tesla - Driven By Noise, But High-Quality Noise
    Marc Gerstein Sat, Apr. 5 143 Comments

    Summary

    • The fact that TSLA stock can’t be justified on the basis of value is not a deterrent from owning the shares.
    • Market equilibrium does not require price to equal value; price actually equals value plus noise.
    • Among large-cap stocks, we can make money through noise just as readily as we can through value.
    • The key is to differentiate between high-quality noise and low-quality noise.
    • TSLA can be justified on the basis of high-quality noise; the key is to make sure you take the trouble to do the grunt work.
  • Tesla And Texas: A Solid Plan For The Gigafactory
    Robert Cowell Fri, Apr. 4 137 Comments

    Summary

    • The gigafactory plan is most feasible in Texas. It may be located in San Antonio according to sources.
    • Texas could rewrite state laws currently preventing the direct sale of Tesla vehicles to 26 million people.
    • This would also give Tesla the influence of the 2 largest US states, California and Texas.
    • Political struggles are one major downside risk for the company.
    • 2017 Price/EBITDA is only 4.8x.
  • We Have March Numbers For Tesla And A Prediction For The First Quarter
    Paulo Santos Thu, Apr. 3 287 Comments

    Summary

    • Massive deliveries in Norway during March make it likely that Tesla will meet or exceed its Q1 deliveries guidance. I estimate 6,700 deliveries for Q1.
    • This comes at the cost of Q2, though, as the deliveries have been achieved partly due to shorter delivery times.
    • This means that Q2 will likely have flat-to-lower deliveries versus Q1, excluding China. This might be apparent when Tesla reports Q1 and guides for Q2.
    • All the numbers continue to be consistent with peaked deliveries in the U.S.
  • Tesla Needs To Capture 14% U.S. Market Share To Justify Valuation
    Michael Fu Thu, Apr. 3 183 Comments

    Summary

    • 2014E U.S. Vehicles sales is 15.3 million units.
    • Tesla is currently expected to sell 35,000-40,000 units in 2014E (0.3% U.S. Market Share).
    • Average industry multiple of Market Cap per Unit is around $13,000 per unit.
    • Tesla would need to sell 2.1mm cars per year (14% U.S. market share), to justify current $28 billion market cap.
  • Tesla Shakes Off More Worries
    Bill Maurer Thu, Apr. 3 83 Comments

    Summary

    • Norway deliveries appear to be very strong.
    • Analyst estimates and opinions down slightly.
    • Stock able to bounce off 50-day moving average.
    • Short interest dipped recently.
    • Tesla was a good short-term buy on the pullback.
  • Is The Model S A Disruptive Innovation And Tesla Motors A Disruptive Company?
    Juan Carlos Zuleta Tue, Apr. 1 180 Comments

    Summary

    • In this study I review the scientific literature on disruptive innovation as applied to electric cars in general and Tesla's Model S in particular.
    • My main finding is that Clayton Christensen’s approach to this issue may be much more powerful than what most critics would believe.
    • The article closes with some comments on the probable reasons why Panasonic may be reluctant to participate in Elon Musk’s Li-ion battery giga-factory adventure.
  • Does Tesla Have An Inventory Problem?
    Kasteel Research Mon, Mar. 31 169 Comments

    Summary

    • Revenues increase faster than inventory.
    • Finished goods represent a small amount of revenues.
    • Customers pay cash, accounts receivable stay small.
    • No, Tesla doesn’t have an inventory problem, quite the contrary.
  • Tesla: Yes To GigaFactory
    Alcaraz Research Sun, Mar. 30 138 Comments

    Summary

    • GigaFactory will usher in more affordable electric vehicles. Musk must do everything to raise the financing needed to put this project into motion. Winning Panasonic’s commitment is top priority.
    • Tesla is a hyper-growth company with a disruptive technology. It is subject to good propaganda/bad propaganda. Best way to profit from Tesla’s inherent volatility is to use options and ride.
    • Despite the recent down trend, TSLA is still expensive to do a buy-in now. Wait for the bears to make TSLA cheap.
  • Why Tesla's 'Not A Recall' Victory Will Crush Q1 Earnings
    John Petersen Sun, Mar. 30 455 Comments

    Summary

    • On Friday the NHTSA closed its investigation into two battery fires in Model S electric cars from Tesla Motors without requiring a recall.
    • Concurrently Tesla announced that it had added titanium and aluminum underbody shields to all cars built after March 6th and would “retrofit the shields, free of charge, to existing cars.”.
    • The cost of the additional parts required to protect its battery packs will significantly impair Tesla’s gross profit on a go-forward basis.
    • The cost of retrofitting underbody armor packages on 30,000 existing cars will be accrued as a warranty expense in Q1-14, crushing Tesla’s GAAP and hypothetical earnings.
  • Tesla Is A Rock That People Break Themselves Against
    Quoth the Raven Sat, Mar. 29 239 Comments

    Summary

    • NHTSA has tossed out any chance of defect causing Model S fires.
    • States are already starting to come around on direct selling.
    • Tesla has violently destroyed every problem that has stood in its way as a company thus far, with ease.
  • Tesla's Game Of The States
    Siddharth Dalal Fri, Mar. 28 336 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla is battling many states for direct sales leading to improvement in its brand awareness.
    • The Gigafactory is a bargaining chip with Texas and Arizona for direct sales and a battle Tesla might win.
    • These heavily covered battles are a long term positive for the brand and auto dealers are just accelerating their own demise.
    • A lot of positive news is expected out of Tesla near term and the stock has taken a beating on no news indicating a possible recovery.
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Company Description

Tesla Motors,inc., designs, develops, manufactures and sells high-performance fully electric vehicles and advanced electric vehicle powertrain components.