Tesoro: Potential For Great Growth Not Worth The Risk
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Wed, Jul. 30, 6:55 PM
- Tesoro's (NYSE:TSO) Q2 earnings missed Wall Street expectations but a 2013 expansion of California operations and improved synergies helped produce a 9% Y/Y increase in earnings from continuing operations.
- Q2 revenues rose 25% Y/Y to $11.1B, well above consensus, but cost of sales widened to $9.87B from $7.91B.
- Estimates FY 2014 capital spending, excluding Tesoro Logisitcs (NYSE:TLLP), of $625M, a 7% reduction from prior guidance; TLLP capex is now seen at ~$200M, up 25% reflecting expected spending related to the construction of the Connolly Gathering System and the Anacortes truck rack.
- Gross refining margin fell to $13.35/bbl from $14.75 during the prior-year period.
- Hikes its quarterly dividend to $0.30 from $0.25 and announces a $1B stock repurchase program.
Wed, Jul. 30, 5:44 PM
Mon, Jul. 28, 12:40 PM
- Refiner stocks are dropping, in line with the margin squeeze that could result from the drop in crude oil prices, Barron's Dimitra DeFotis writes.
- Rising violence in Libya continues to affect energy assets, but attempts for peace between Israel and the Palestinians over the weekend may be taking some of the risk out of energy markets; Brent prices are down nearly 1% to $107.76/bbl, narrowing the spread with West Texas crude, off 0.3% to $101.74.
- ALJ -3.3%, TSO -1.6%, WNR -0.9%, HFC -0.8%, VLO -0.6%, PSX -0.4%, MPC -0.2%.
Mon, Jul. 21, 4:59 PM
- Tesoro (NYSE:TSO) announces plans to produce petrochemical feedstock in its U.S. west coast refining system, gathering intermediate feedstock, primarily reformate, for xylene extraction at Anacortes, Wash.
- An initial investment of ~$400M is designed to recover up to 15K bbl/day of mixed xylene, whose global market TSO says is growing 5%-7% annually, primarily driven by demand in Asia.
Tue, Jul. 15, 11:33 AM
- Valero Energy (VLO -0.2%) climbs off sharp early losses after reporting Q2 guidance below Wall Street consensus.
- Wells Fargo analysts expect Q2 throughput volumes will be generally as expected, while capture rates will fall short of prior expectations likely due to weaker crack spreads; it lowers its Q2 and FY 2014 EPS estimates to a respective $1.18 and $5.87 from $1.31 and $6.00.
- Raymond James analysts continue to “tread lightly” with the refiners, skeptical that WTI-Brent spreads can reach heights needed to drive EPS expectations higher for 2015 and beyond.
- Other refiners are mostly higher after early losses: TSO +0.7%, HFC +0.3%, MPC +0.7%, PSX +0.4%, ALJ -0.5%, WNR +0.4%, CVI +0.8%.
Wed, Jul. 9, 6:54 PM
- Shares of refiners such as Phillips 66 (PSX), Holly Frontier (HFC), Valero Energy (VLO) and Alon USA Energy (ALJ) have suffered since the U.S. government decided to allow the export of some ultra-light crude oil, and Barclays believes upcoming earnings reports aren't likely to help much.
- U.S. refiners have fared better than international peers but still have been hit by the narrowing in most of the key North American crude differentials, although refiners exposed to the Cushing-Midland differential are affected less than most, the firm says.
- As a result, Barclays slashes its current-year earnings forecast for most of the refiners; ALJ's FY 2014 EPS estimate is cut to $0.35 from $1.25 to reflect the company’s lower Q2 throughput guidance at its Big Spring refinery (39M bbl/day vs. 46M bbl/day prior).
- The firm cuts EPS at HFC to $3.00 from $4.35, PSX to $6.20 from $7.95, and VLO to $6.25 from $8.35; only Tesoro (TSO) emerges unscathed, with its estimate left at $5.00.
Mon, Jun. 30, 10:47 AM
- Last week's surprise move by the U.S. government to allow the export of condensate products hit the refining sector hard, but the analyst team at Cowen remains bullish on top refiners, believing actual crude exports are highly unlikely and there is no change to the spirit of the law.
- Cowen remains bullish for the longer term and sees potential for a meaningful feedstock advantage for U.S. refiners emerging later this year, with U.S. crude production inflecting at 9M bbl/day and Gulf Coast imports baselining at 2.8M-3M bbl/day.
- Cowen's five favorite refiners are MPC, PBF, TSO, VLO, WNR; the condensate export issue took a toll on the stocks, and investors can buy some of them as much as 15% cheaper than two weeks ago.
Fri, Jun. 27, 4:53 PM
- All U.S. crude oil that is processed by a distillation tower - not just condensate - is exempt from the crude export ban, potentially widening the amount of petroleum U.S. producers can send to markets abroad, Reuters reports, citing U.S. government and industry sources.
- By focusing on how the oil is treated rather than what it is, this week's ruling allowing two companies that produce condensate to export the oil if it is processed by a distillation tower appears to open an option for companies that produce traditional crude to get around the export ban by lightly boiling their own oil, the report says.
- The new interpretation of the ruling will add to the speculation over how much of the U.S. shale oil boom might reach overseas markets.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, XLE, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, DIG, BNO, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, CRUD, USL, PXJ, FENY, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, RYE, SZO, FXN, OLO, DDG, OLEM.
- Domestic oil stocks: OAS, NOG, KOG, CLR, WLL, EOX, SM, SFY, PVA, GST, SN, CRK, BBG.
- Global majors: XOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, RDS.B.
- Refiners: VLO, HFC, MPC, TSO, WNR, ALJ, PSX, PBF, DK, NTI, ALDW, CVI.
Fri, Jun. 27, 3:59 PM
- Refiners are lower again today after a slight bounce yesterday, as investors resume wariness over the U.S. government's move to allow exports of ultra-light crude oil.
- But Credit Suisse analysts say there’s more to the drop in refiners: U.S. refining is still linked to the world, there is overcapacity in global refining and the risk premium in the oil price is rising, and this week the market was reminded that the lightest barrels (condensate) in U.S. production can be exported (via distillation towers) at relatively low cost, creating more runway for black oil.
- The firm downgrades Holly Frontier (HFC -2.5%), and says Tesoro (TSO -0.7%) needs to beat convincingly in 2Q earnings... to drive further relative upside”; however, Marathon Petroleum (MPC -1.7%) "is becoming significantly more interesting after underperforming,” while it sees most potential in niche refiners such as Delek US (DK -3.4%) and Western Refining (WNR -0.9%).
- Also: VLO -1.1%, ALJ -2.5%, PSX -0.7%, PBF -3.5%, CVI +0.4%, CLMT +1.5%.
Thu, Jun. 26, 3:33 PM
- Most refiners recover part of yesterday's big drop, which some say was an overreaction to the U.S. government move to allow two oil companies to export ultra-light crude oil for the first time: TSO +2.8%, VLO +2%, PSX +1%, CVI +0.7%, CLMT +0.7%, WNR +0.6%, MPC +0.2%, ALJ -1%, PBF -0.6%, HFC -0.3%.
- The death of U.S. refiners is "greatly exaggerated," Cowen analysts say: "The spirit of the law - that hydrocarbon liquids produced in the U.S. must be processed in the U.S. - remains in place, and permits for condensate exports do not constitute precedent for crude oil... We continue to see potential for a meaningful feedstock advantage for U.S. refiners emerging later in 2014."
- Ned Davis Research, however, thinks the news is "potentially game changing for refiners," since it signals a change in the government’s position on oil exports more broadly and noting that it is the export ban, plus inadequate pipeline infrastructure, that has fed recent refiner outperformance.
Wed, Jun. 25, 10:18 AM
- Refiners take a beating in early trading, as a lift of the ban on U.S. oil exports is expected to narrow the WTI-Brent spread, which could cause refiners' profits drop if they are forced to pay higher prices to compete with international buyers for U.S. crude.
- “We don’t think the current system needs to be changed,” Valero Energy tells Bloomberg.
- Yesterday's rulings gave Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD +2.6%) and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD +1.4%) permission to ship ultralight oil to foreign buyers - a narrow ruling, but one that is likely to spark similar requests from other companies, and increase lobbying for a full lifting of the 40-year-old ban on exporting crude oil.
- Refining stocks are broadly lower: VLO -7.4%, PBF -5.8%, MPC -5.7%, WNR -5.5%, DK -5.4%, HFC -4.6%, ALDW -4.6%, TSO -3.8%, NTI -3.5%, PSX -2.9%, ALJ -2.7%, CVI -2.3%.
Mon, Jun. 23, 5:58 PM
- Tesoro Logistics (TLLP) agrees to acquire three marketing terminals, a storage facility and a refined products pipeline from Tesoro (TSO) for $270M.
- The three refined products terminals are adjacent to TSO's refineries at Martinez, Calif., Anacortes, Wash., and Kenai, Alaska, with expected total throughput of 35K-45K bbl/day; the marine crude oil and heavy products storage facility has a capacity of 1.5M barrels and is located adjacent to TSO's Anacortes refinery.
- TLLP expects the deal to add $28M to annual EBITDA.
Thu, Jun. 12, 11:22 AM
- The refining analysts at Cowen say that although Q2 earnings estimates are coming down and Q3 also could prove challenging, they believe asset quality will be rewarded and see higher crude prices as setting up a buying opportunity in their five favorite sector names.
- Topping the list is Marathon Petroleum (MPC), which Cowen rates at Outperform with a $120 price target; the firm's other favorites are PBF, TSO, VLO and WNR.
Thu, May. 15, 4:59 PM
- Oil refiners will be required to further curb air pollution from storage tanks, flares and heavy-oil processing equipment under proposed rules released today by the EPA.
- The proposed rules also would require refiners for the first time to measure concentrations of cancer-causing benzene at their fence lines and provide the data to the public.
- Top refiners include VLO, TSO, PSX, ALJ, MPC, WNR, HFC, CVI, DK and CLMT.
Fri, May. 2, 10:24 AM
- California, the biggest gasoline market of all the U.S. states and the third largest oil refining state, more than doubled the volume of oil it received by rail during Q1 as deliveries from Canada surged.
- California unloaded 1.41M barrels in the quarter, up from 693,457 a year ago, with Canadian deliveries making up half the total.
- Trains are bringing more to California even as projects face more scrutiny after a series of accidents involving rail cars carrying fuel: Tesoro (TSO) is 6-8 weeks behind schedule in receiving regulatory permits for a rail-to-marine crude transloading terminal in Washington state, and city regulators yesterday said they’re delaying until June an environmental report on a rail-offloading complex Valero (VLO) has proposed at its Benicia refinery in northern California.
Thu, May. 1, 2:59 PM
- Tesoro's (TSO +1.2%) plan for a crude oil rail-to-barge project at the Port of Vancouver in Washington has been delayed as the refiner awaits state requirements for an environmental impact statement, CEO Greg Goff said in today's earnings call.
- The project had been targeted to start up in late 2014 or early 2015; Goff said construction is now expected to begin during that time frame, with initial inland U.S. crude volumes running through the railport in mid-2015.
- Goff also says the estimated cost of the project has risen to $150M-$190M from ~$100 originally.
TSO vs. ETF Alternatives
Tesoro Corp is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer in the United States. Its subsidiaries, operating through three business segments, primarily transport crude oil and manufacture, transport and sell transportation fuels.