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TSO vs. ETF Alternatives
Tesoro Corporation is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer in the United States. Its subsidiaries, operating through three business segments, primarily transport crude oil and manufacture, transport and sell transportation fuels.
Tuesday, Oct 152013, 2:13 PM
Tuesday, Oct 152013, 2:13 PM| Comment!
- Tesoro Logistics (TLLP; TSO) says it will repair and replace a 200-ft. section of the North Dakota pipeline that leaked ~20K barrels of Bakken oil onto a farm, and is developing a plan to reroute the pipeline.
- TLLP is declining to give any details of the plan, which will be shared with federal authorities; it is not commenting on the cause of the leak, and has not provided a date for the possible restart of the line.
Friday, Oct 112013, 5:48 PM
Friday, Oct 112013, 5:48 PM| Comment!
- Corrosion may have led to the leak of 20K barrels of oil from a Tesoro Logistics (TLLP, TSO) pipeline in North Dakota, according to an initial investigation.
- The 20-year-old pipeline was carrying crude oil from the Bakken shale to the Stampede rail facility outside Columbus, N.D.; the spill was largely contained and clean-up efforts were estimated at ~$4M.
- The incident is raising questions about North Dakota's ability to handle its energy boom after it was not reported to the public for 12 days; the governor, who says he wasn’t even told about the spill until two days ago, says the state is now investigating its procedures for reporting spills.
Friday, Oct 112013, 11:46 AM
Friday, Oct 112013, 11:46 AM| 18 Comments
- Refiners continue to rise a day after news of a leaked EPA proposal that would significantly scale back biofuel blending requirements next year.
- The EPA's rationale for a cut in the volume of ethanol that must be blended echoes an argument the oil industry has made for months: The U.S. fuel chain cannot absorb more ethanol.
- Let the lawsuits begin: "Any plan to roll back the targets... under the guise of addressing the blend wall would be patently unlawful," says the head of the Renewable Fuels Association.
- TSO +4.4%, VLO +3.4%, PSX +3.1%, MPC +2.2%, WNR +4.5%, HFC +2.2%, ALJ +6.8%, CVI +2.6%, NTI +2%, DK +7.8%, CLMT +1.8%.
Thursday, Oct 102013, 2:18 PM
Thursday, Oct 102013, 2:18 PM| Comment!
- Chevron (CVX -0.4%) is lower after warning "significantly lower" earnings from its refining division would send Q3 EPS down Q/Q.
- J.P. Morgan believes investors were anticipating relatively soft downstream results given the currently weak refining margin environment; perhaps that's why refiners are holding up very well today: VLO +4.4%, TSO +3.7%, PSX +2.3%, ALJ +6.7%, MPC +4.5%, WNR +3.7%, HFC +4.2%, CVI +4.6%.
- Citigroup worries about CVX's upstream business too; it was expecting a much larger increase in Q3 production which would put CVX on track to meet its full year guidance of 2,650M boe/day.
Monday, Oct 72013, 2:47 PM
Monday, Oct 72013, 2:47 PM| 1 Comment
- Refining stocks are lower as HollyFrontier (HFC -0.7%) is hit with a downgrade from Imperial Capital, which dropped its rating to In-Line from Outperform, reduces its price target to $41 from $49, and cuts its 2013 EPS estimate to $3.83 from $4.83 and 2014 EPS estimate to $3.50 from $4.00.
- The firm sees continued contraction in refining margins and crude price differentials, especially as the southern leg of the Keystone XL pipeline commences operation later this month.
- Other refiners: VLO -0.6%, TSO -0.8%, MPC -1.4%, PSX -1.5%, WNR -1.4%, ALJ -2.5%, CVI -2.5%.
Friday, Oct 42013, 3:23 PM
Friday, Oct 42013, 3:23 PM| 9 Comments
- Refiners generally face a "deteriorating earnings outlook," and any potential stock gains in the next six months may not be enough to offset "the inherent downside risk from weaker earnings," Oppenheimer says.
- The firm downgrades HollyFrontier (HFC flat), Marathon Petroleum (MPC -0.1%), Phillips 66 (PSX -0.5%), Tesoro (TSO +1%) and Valero (VLO +0.9%) to Perform from Outperform, and removes price targets for the stocks.
- On a more positive note, the firm says refiners it follows are now in their best shape operationally and financially in years.
- Outlooks for refiners have been mostly pessimistic, although Citigroup upgraded VLO and TSO earlier this week.
Wednesday, Oct 22013, 4:57 PM
Wednesday, Oct 22013, 4:57 PM| 6 Comments
- More on Citigroup's take on oil refiners: The firm expects to see a bottoming of earnings in Q4 for most names, but companies overweight the Midcontinent and/or Midwest could experience a difficult earnings environment through Q1 2014.
- The diverging earnings performance will result in positive price appreciation for some refiners - such as Valero (VLO) and Tesoro (TSO), which earn upgrades to Buy - but underperformance for others, such as on Alon USA (ALDW), CVR Refining (CVRR), Holly Frontier (HFC) and PBF Energy (PBF), which will remain pressured by narrowing price differences between WTI and Brent crude.
- TSO will benefit next year from a tighter gasoline market in California, and VLO will benefit from wider heavy-light differentials in H2 2014 as increased Canadian heavy crude flows to the U.S. Gulf coast, Citi says (earlier: I, II).
Wednesday, Oct 22013, 3:26 PM
Wednesday, Oct 22013, 3:26 PM| 2 Comments
- It's a pretty good day for refiners, even as most energy stocks slip, as Phillips 66 (PSX +2.1%), Valero (VLO +1.2%), Tesoro (TSO +0.2%), Western Refining (WNR +1.2%), Marathon Petroleum (MPC +1.2%) and HollyFrontier (HFC +0.4%) all post gains.
- PSX rises the most among energy companies in the S&P 500 after announcing a 25% increase in its quarterly dividend, VLO and TSO are upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup (I, II), and WNR rolls out a 12.5M-share IPO of its logistics unit.
- Refiners generally have come in for criticism recently; Barclays, for one, believes most refiners will miss consensus earnings expectations by a wide margin, with VLO the exception.
- ETFs: IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XLE, XOP, VDE, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERX, DIG, ERY, DUG, DDG.
Wednesday, Oct 22013, 10:28 AM
Wednesday, Oct 22013, 10:28 AM| Comment!
- Tesoro (TSO +0.6%) is upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup, which says the refiner should enjoy a boost from an economic recovery in California.
- TSO's new refinery in Carson City will double its capacity in the state; the firm notes that California's economic recovery thus far has been skewed toward the northern part of the state, where gasoline demand is much lower than in the southern part, but reserve capacities will shrink as the economic recovery spreads, boosting profits for TSO.
- However, profits will remain pressured through Q4 due to the seasonality of gasoline profits and demand; the firm lowers its price target on TSO shares to $55 from $60.
Wednesday, Sep 112013, 4:59 PM
Wednesday, Sep 112013, 4:59 PM| Comment!
- Credit Suisse is concerned that 2013 Q4 and 2014 EPS estimates are too high for the refiners group, but the firm thinks Western Refining (WNR) and Tesoro (TSO) are best equipped to weather the storm.
- CS lowers TSO's earnings power on more conservative West Coast cracks, but thinks shares still look undervalued in absolute and relative terms.
- The firm raises Valero's (VLO) earnings, seeing Q3 as an important test as capture rates should bounce back; otherwise investors will worry that the Q2 weakness was structural.
- Deutsche Bank also says it's too soon to buy the group.
Tuesday, Sep 102013, 3:17 PM
Tuesday, Sep 102013, 3:17 PM| 9 Comments
- It's still not time to buy the refiners, Deutsche Bank says, even after the beat-down which has sent Valero (VLO) -7.3%, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) -17%, Tesoro (TSO) -21%, Phillips 66 (PSX) -13% and HollyFrontier (HFC) -7.7% in the past three months.
- The firm sees a potential entry point around October/November, but a Q3 round of earnings downgrades likely will bring lower equity prices; it's better to wait, "as global oil markets have become weakened by super-high oil prices and demand may be too damaged to allow for a strong winter for refining."
- Several sell-side firms have expressed similar trepidations recently.
Monday, Sep 92013, 2:23 PM
Monday, Sep 92013, 2:23 PM| 1 Comment
- Refiners (PXE, RYE, IOIL) are broadly underperforming the rest of the energy sector today after a Simmons downgrade to Neutral from Overweight, expecting continuing challenges to EPS and refining margins in Q3 and into 2014 after a dismal Q2.
- Individual stocks lowered by the firm: Marathon Petroleum (MPC -1.5%), Tesoro (TSO -0.6%), Delek US (DK -1.3%), Alon USA (ALJ -0.5%), CVR Energy (CVI -1.8%), CVR Partners (CVRR -1.2%).
- HollyFrontier (HFC -1.8%) breaks down to fresh multi-week lows after a downgrade from Morgan Stanley.
- Also, Barclays says at its Energy-Power conference that it believes most refiners will miss current consensus expectations by a wide margin, with Valero (VLO +0.7%) the exception (Briefing.com).
Thursday, Aug 292013, 12:44 PM
Thursday, Aug 292013, 12:44 PM| 1 Comment
- With strikes on Syria no sure thing now, oil prices have fallen nearly 1% and taken oil stocks with them; in fact, energy (XLE -0.6%) and utilities (XLU -0.7%) are the only S&P sectors in the red.
- Among global producers: XOM -1.2%, CVX -0.7%, COP -0.6%, RDS.A -0.6%, BP -0.9%, TOT -1.6%.
- Notable decliners: CNX -2.4%, RRC -2.1%.
- Refiners are among energy stocks bucking the sector's downward trend: VLO +0.7%, TSO +0.9%, PSX +0.6%, MPC +0.8%, WNR +1.5%, HFC +2.3%, ALJ +2.9%.
Monday, Aug 262013, 3:31 PM
Monday, Aug 262013, 3:31 PM| 5 Comments
- "The easiest call we can make" among U.S. oil refiners once Q3 consensus is complete is to buy Phillips 66 (PSX +0.3%), given refining accounts for only ~30% of value and chemicals/midstream is "doing very nicely, thank you," Credit Suisse writes.
- If capture rates improve given wider light-heavy spreads, then Valero (VLO) could match consensus earnings, the firm says, but relative value favors Western Refining (WNR), Tesoro (TSO), Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and PSX over VLO.
Tuesday, Aug 132013, 2:48 PM
Tuesday, Aug 132013, 2:48 PM| 1 Comment
- Crude oil shipped by rail from North Dakota is drawing fresh scrutiny from regulators concerned that the cargo is adding environmental and safety hazards, which analysts say could raise costs. (earlier)
- The heretofore unanticipated cost of added safety measures, such as tighter rail-car specifications that would make obsolete some current models, may become an issue if oil prices fall, ClearView Energy Partners; "at $75/bbl, it could be a big deal."
- Three pipeline companies, including Enbridge (ENB) and Tesoro (TSO), have warned regulators that North Dakota oil with too much hydrogen sulfide, which is toxic and flammable, was reaching terminals and putting workers at risk.
Thursday, Aug 12013, 5:10 PM
Thursday, Aug 12013, 5:10 PM| Comment!
- Tesoro (TSO) Q2 beats across the board as revenues rose 21.3% Y/Y.
- A better margin environment in California was off-set by lower crack spreads in the Mid- Continent and Pacific Northwest, driven by lower discounts on advantaged crude oil.
- Retail fuel sales volumes were up over 60%, driven by the addition of 835 dealer operated ARCO retail stations on June 1, 2013 and the addition of 174 retail stations from Thrifty Oil.
- Refinery utilization at 93%.
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golfrattt:: just printed 56.77 in ah, yesterday's close. What the....
TFCAB:: refiners going higher.....WTI collapsing.......spread expanding