Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO)

All Comments on TTWO

  • commenter
    Grampy
    May 17 06:14 PM
    Even Grand Theft Auto IV Couldn't Save April for Videogames [view article]
    The article would have been a lot more complete, interesting and useful if it had included the fact that the dismal month was far from across the boards. In consoles, Nintendo sold almost twice as many as the PS3 and 360 combined while setting new all time records in sales. I realize the article was aimed at software, but in video games the two are tightly linked.
    In software, I think it should be pointed out that Grand Theft Auto 4 broke sales records by selling about 3.6 million units on its first day of release and grossing more than $500 million in its first week surprising everyone in the industry. If Mr. Wilson was really expecting more than that, I would seriously question his estimate, not the sales. The surprising thing is that these phenomenal sales did not translate into console sales for Microsoft and Sony and didn’t cause any slowdown of the Nintendo Wii juggernaut.
    Reply
  • commenter
    User 117413
    May 17 11:37 AM
    My Website
    Even Grand Theft Auto IV Couldn't Save April for Videogames [view article]
    Hmmm.... it seems to me that this Mr.Wilson didn't get one right, maybe he doesn't know how to do estimates? Reply
  • commenter
    p. smith
    May 13 10:11 AM
    Barron's Looks at Tech Sector M&A Candidates [view article]
    All mindless speculation. How come nobody ever thought about HPQ to acquire EDS...? if these analysts have any sense at all they should all shut their mouths.

    A bunch of blithering idiots....     Reply
  • commenter
    garfy01
    May 13 12:47 AM
    Take Two's New GTA Game Sells Well; EA: “Nothing Has Changed” [view article]
    Actually, looking purely at the points in the article, it makes very few relevant points.

    Basically we're looking at whether or not GTA IV impacts stock price of TTWO. EA is attempting to downplay over 6 million units sold and revenue already over 500 million by saying yah we already knew it and its built into the price. By year end, GTA IV will have generated nearkly over 900 million...almost half of the amount EA is offering for all of TTWO...so nice try.

    All the comparisons to Halo are completely irrelevant. It's about the money not about breaking records. I don't care what platform its sold on, X360 or PS3, its sold a lot and TTWO has high profit margins on it because GTA IV was developed internally unlike Halo.

    As for platforms serving as a ceiling for sales, that's partially true, but you are also forgetting that GTA IV drives console sales as well so the ceiling is being raised. The other upside is episodic content and music sales on top of the existing base of GTA IV sales. EA fails to factor in the incremental revenue streams from episodic content to those 6 million owners of GTA IV as well as music sold via the Amazon link to those users.

    Reply
  • commenter
    User 192370
    May 12 10:37 PM
    Take Two's New GTA Game Sells Well; EA: “Nothing Has Changed” [view article]
    Great article- glad to see a few who get it. And a well addressed, smart comment in response to those who don't...
    Well done.     Reply
  • commenter
    Take Two
    May 12 10:33 PM
    Take Two's New GTA Game Sells Well; EA: “Nothing Has Changed” [view article]
    I’m impressed that Mark Berger was able to overcome illiteracy, so I won’t hold him accountable for directing his frustration towards the article itself. Better luck next time Mr. Berger. Reply
  • commenter
    garfy01
    May 12 03:52 PM
    Take Two's New GTA Game Sells Well; EA: “Nothing Has Changed” [view article]
    There seems to be an over abundance of interest in the media trying to convince people that TTWO is already at or above a fair price for EA to aquire.

    Are you analysts and journalists on crack?

    There's no benefit for TTWO or TTWO shareholders to sell to EA at this price point. If EA can add so much value, then how come they have never had a game even fractionally as successful as GTA IV?

    EA is the only party to benefit from this transaction. Shareholders who have benefited from the "pop" the EA offer has provided have already cashed out.

    Few people are gonna wanna bail on their TTWO at 25.74 when that is less than the current market value.

    Hang on to your TTWO shares. EA's bid only serves as an artificial ceiling. Once it dissapears, you've got a company with huge upside potential.

    One that has repaired management problems, has developed multiple million unit IPs (midnight club, bioshock, etc.) beyond GTA IV, is on the verge of a turnaround from going negative EPS to positive EPS this year, is the only alternative sports game vendor to EA, is trading at a low multiple (16 as opposed to 24 to 30) in while its growth potential is much larger than its competitors, and will be the first HIGH QUALITY video game to movie transition (bioshock will set a new standard rather than cheesy adaptations like resident evil, tomb raider and hitman)

    TTWO should be selling at 35 to 40 bucks at minimum to be at par with ERTS and ATVI.

    Watch what happens after ERTS reports less than spectacular results. They will have no option but to up their bid to acquire TWO becuase they need to account for the growth they promised their shareholders and to justify their overly high multiple. The only reason they keep saying their offer is full and fair is to try to bluff their way into a better deal by containing the stock price.

    I'm guessing their recent billion dollars in secured financing will be used to up their bid for TTWO when May 16 arrives. THIS WILL NOT BE A 2 BILLION DOLLAR sale but much for more.
    Reply
  • commenter
    Peter Kruger
    May 12 10:45 AM
    My Website
    Take Two's New GTA Game Sells Well; EA: “Nothing Has Changed” [view article]
    Please stop quoting Michael Pachter. If you have followed his analyst work over the years, you'd realize that he has recently started writing and speaking as if he was in EA's back pocket. Ever since EA announced the deal, he has been consistantly, (and incorrectly, to the point of lying) bearish on TTWO.

    Anyone who crunches the numbers and looks at the quality of product TTWO puts out knows that EA is trying to take TTWO for about 30% of its true, current value.

    As a TTWO shareholder, I find it frustrating when I see see Michael Pachter quoted in so many places, when he is nothing more than a manipulative shill for EA and the ones with interest in EA acquiring TTWO. Hopefully the investor community is smart enough not to fall for his poorly disguised efforts at market manipulation.     Reply
  • commenter
    Kapurnickus
    May 12 09:57 AM
    Take Two's New GTA Game Sells Well; EA: “Nothing Has Changed” [view article]
    I'd have to agree with all that. So far this year Pachter is showing himself to be quite a contrary indicator.

    He's blown calls all over the tech corridor including TTWO and NFLX.

    His analysis means pretty much nothing to me.     Reply
  • commenter
    Joe Botley
    May 12 12:34 AM
    Take Two's New GTA Game Sells Well; EA: “Nothing Has Changed” [view article]
    Please point out where Michael Pachter ever estimated TTWOs valuation at $20-$22? Up until the day of the EA bid for TTWO he had a $12 price target on TTWO. Yes, $12.

    The same goes for his supposedly accurate estimates on GTA 4 sales. He conveniently upped those estimates right before the game launch and still said it didn't change anything with regards to his valuation for TTWO.

    He was clearly 2 million copies off and $100 million dollars off in his most optimistic first week estimates.     Reply
  • commenter
    Daniel
    Jacome
    May 11 11:58 PM
    My Website
    Take Two's New GTA Game Sells Well; EA: “Nothing Has Changed” [view article]
    I thought it was a good article and useful data point to think about -- esp the fact on console # serving as a sales ceiling.

    Thanks. This isn't the first time I've seen a sell sider get bashed hard in an article that was never originally about him/her : )     Reply
  • commenter
    Seth
    May 11 07:27 PM
    My Website
    Take Two's New GTA Game Sells Well; EA: “Nothing Has Changed” [view article]
    Take Two is a company with a strong pipeline of games and a very loyal fan base. Invariably, EA's pending hostile offer is going to rankle some members of that group. A hostile takeover is, after all, by definition hostile.

    Here, the initial three comments on this article, and the negative tone in a few of them, seems to reflect some of that frustration. It's clear at least two readers believe Take Two is not getting a fair valuation and that analyst Michael Pachter is not held in their high regard. Fair enough, but directing those criticisms to this article is off base.

    This was not an article about valuation, nor Pachter. Nowhere does the article discuss whether EA's offer is fair, or reasonable. Nowhere does it discuss what Take Two might be worth. Nowhere did it take a position on whether Pachter is likely to be right or wrong.

    Quite simply, this article was about two things: 1. Adding perspective to GTA IV sales data; and 2. looking at whether or not those sales results are likely to influence EA's current bid.

    The research and analysis provided address just those two points. The reference to Pachter in context, as case in point, was an example of how analysts modeled for GTA IV sales before the retail release and how even the stellar sales results isn't changing their opinions. The point wasn't whether his analysis proves accurate but that the analysis didn't change despite GTA IV's sales performance.

     Reply
  • commenter
    Joe Botley
    May 11 02:43 PM
    Take Two's New GTA Game Sells Well; EA: “Nothing Has Changed” [view article]
    By your estimates and Michael Pachter's valuation model, ERTS must be worth at most 1/3 of its current market value. Reply
  • commenter
    gaucho420
    May 11 02:02 PM
    Take Two's New GTA Game Sells Well; EA: “Nothing Has Changed” [view article]
    I agree with Mark. This is the same Michael Pachter who had TTWO rated as a hold back when it was in the mid teens. He's been wrong all along. Personally, I don't see how EA can afford not to buy TTWO. What does EA have that's so great?

    Madden sold less than last year, as did FIFA, NBA Live, NHL, etc...TTWO NBA2k8 gets better reviews and sells better than EA's own product. EA doesn't have a baseball game, TTWO does. There's only so many Godfather and Harry Potter games EA can make. James Bond now belongs to ATVI. Rockband is 50% owned by VIA. Medal of Honor is COD's bitch.

    Overall, EA needs a boost in the arm and the GTA franchise, along with the rest of TTWO (Bioshock, Midnight Club, Bully, NBA & MLK 2k8, Carnival Games), would certainly do that and it would really broaden their scope as a company, to better compete with ATVI.

    If EA doesn't do this deal and at a significantly higher price than what its offered, EA losses out much more than meets the eye and is the permanant #2 behind ATVI, until TTWO over takes it, a few years down the road.     Reply
  • commenter
    Mark Berger
    May 11 11:42 AM
    Take Two's New GTA Game Sells Well; EA: “Nothing Has Changed” [view article]
    When you write an article, you should do your own homework. Your next should be titled: Why is TTWO not given a similar multiple valuation as ERTS & ATVI? Get up one morning, pour over the numbers - and realize it just doesn't add up. And here's a tip, don't listen to Michael Pachter. He's the worst analyst on the street - bar none. You and Michael will be proven dead wrong on this one.

    Nice hack job though!     Reply
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