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TUR vs. ETF Alternatives
The iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index.
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Monday, Mar 317:28 AM
Monday, Mar 317:28 AM| Comment!
- Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan gets a boost as his AKP Party receives about 46% of the vote (vs. 39% for its leading opponent) in local elections as a strong economy outweighs civil unrest in the country and increasing criticism of his autocratic rule.
- After a big rally ahead of the election, the Istanbul index opened sharply higher, before closing up just 0.55%. TUR +3.3% premarket
Friday, Mar 289:17 AM
Friday, Mar 289:17 AM| 1 Comment
- Days after shutting down access to Twitter, the government of Prime Minister Erdogan blocked YouTube and restricted local media ahead of critical local elections. The move came after a leaked recording hit the site apparently showing Turkey's foreign minister, spy chief, and a top general discussing ways to create a pretext for the country to attack Syria.
- Speaking at an election rally, Erdogan called the leak "villainous, cowardly, an dishonest." Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu called it "a declaration of war."
- Turkish stocks brush off the clampdown, not to mention even higher tensions with Syria, climbing 2.2%. TUR +2.8% premarket
Tuesday, Mar 1812:28 PM
Tuesday, Mar 1812:28 PM| 5 Comments
- Investors “are selling emerging markets which have very low valuations, significant dividend yields but have underperformed in recent times ... [for developed markets] which have relatively high valuations, potentially limited long-term earnings growth and where markets have just gone up rather fast," says Sam Vecht, a portfolio manager at BlackRock Emerging Europe Trust.
- Mostly bearish on emerging markets in general and Turkey in particular over the past years, Vecht and team have turned bullish in the past few months, citing low valuations and high interest rates (high rates can go lower; zero rates can't).
- EM ETFs: EEM, VWO, DEM, EDC, DGS, EDZ, EEMV, SCHE, EEB, EDIV, IEMG, DVYE, EEV, EWX, BIK, BKF, PIE, ADRE, HILO, EUM, FNI, EET, GMM, PXH, EEMS, BBRC, EELV, DGRE, FEMS, EEME, EMDD, BICK, EMCR, DBEM, FEM, EWEM, EVAL, EMBB, TLTE, EMLB, FNDE, EEHB, EMHD, EMDG, EGRW, EMSA, EMFT, QEM, EMDR, QDEM
- Turkey ETFs: TUR
Monday, Feb 38:43 AM
Monday, Feb 38:43 AM| Comment!
- In order to draw the necessary capital to pull emerging markets out of their swoon, real interest rates have to go higher, says Citigroup. A near-doubling of the benchmark rate in Turkey last week only pulled one-year borrowing costs up to 3.6%, less than half the average in the thee years prior to 2008. The real yield in Mexico (EWW) is about zero. In South Africa, it's 1.4% vs. 2% over the past decade.
- “When you have low real rates and try to finance your current-account deficits, it usually won’t work,” says Citi LatAm strategist Dirk Willer. “If the U.S. is repricing for higher rates, it’s very difficult for you to get away with lower rates. South Africa (EZA) and Turkey (TUR) are not safe yet.”
- EEM -0.5% premarket
- Related ETFs: EEM, VWO, DEM, EDC, DGS, EDZ, CYB, EEMV, SCHE, EEB, CNY, EDIV, BZF, IEMG, DVYE, EEV, EWX, BIK, BKF, CEW, PIE, ICN, ADRE, HILO, INR, EUM, FNI, EET, FXCH, GMM, PXH, INCO, EEMS, BBRC, EELV, FEMS, DGRE, EEME, AYT, EMDD, BICK, DBEM, EMCR, PGD, FEM, EWEM, EMLB, JEM, EMBB, EVAL, TLTE, EEHB, EGRW, FNDE, EMDG, EMHD, EMSA, EMFT, EMDR, QEM, QDEM
Thursday, Jan 301:17 PM
Thursday, Jan 301:17 PM| 1 Comment
- “International monetary cooperation has broken down,” says India central bank boss Raghuram Rajan, a day after the Fed boosted the size of its taper and made no mention of melting-down emerging markets. Rajan joined counterparts from Turkey and South Africa this week in boosting rates to try and stem the slide in their domestic currencies.
- "The challenge is brought on by their own domestic policies," says former Fed Governor Randy Krosner. "It's unfair to say it's all the Fed's fault."
- Back in his IMF days in 2011, Rajan authored a report calling for the formation of a committee composed of representatives from the major central banks who would report on the spillover consequences of their individual policies. Good luck with that one.
- Emerging markets are getting a respite today amid a big rally in the West (of the West is rallying because of a respite in emerging markets).
- EEM +0.8%, VWO +1%.
- TUR +1.9%, EPI +1.7%, ARGT +0.5%, RSX +0.7%.
- Related ETFs: EEM, VWO, DEM, RSX, EDC, EPI, DGS, INDY, EDZ, CYB, SCIF, PIN, INP, EEMV, EZA, SCHE, EEB, CNY, EDIV, INDL, BZF, IEMG, DVYE, RUSL, EEV, BIK, EWX, BKF, CEW, PIE, ICN, ERUS, ADRE, HILO, INR, RUSS, INDA, SCIN, INXX, EUM, FNI, RSXJ, EET, FXCH, RBL, GMM, PXH, INCO, EEMS, BBRC, EELV, SMIN, FEMS, DGRE, EEME, EMDD, BICK, AYT, DBEM, EMCR, PGD, FEM, EWEM, EMBB, EMLB, JEM, EVAL, TLTE, EEHB, EGRW, FNDE, EMDG, EMHD, EMSA, EMDR, EMFT, QEM, RUDR, QDEM
Wednesday, Jan 2910:54 AM
Wednesday, Jan 2910:54 AM| 8 Comments
- Who could have thought raising interest rates 425 basis points would be bearish? A curious rally following Turkey's defense of the lira - it jacked rates to 12% from 7.75% - has completely reversed. One feels a 1992-like vibe where the Bank of England hiked like crazy to defend the pound, but then ultimately had to let it go (also creating a bottom in stocks).
- In Europe, the Stoxx 50 (FEZ) is off 1.3%, with Turkey (TUR) now down 2.3%.
- South Africa joins the party, unexpectedly hiking its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%. EZA -2.8%.
- A check of Brazil (EWZ -1.3%) and India (EPI -1.1%) - where monetary policy has also been tightened this week - finds them lower as well.
- The money is flowing into U.S. Treasurys which continue a big 2014 rally. The 10-year yield is off five basis points to 2.71%. TLT +0.3%, TBT -0.5%.
- Europe ETFs: ETFs: FXE, VGK, EUO, FEZ, ERO, EU, DFE, IEV, EPV, EZU, HEDJ, DRR, GXF, FEU, GUR, FDD, EUFX, ESR, UPV, ULE, FEP, ADRU, URR, FEEU, EURZ, DBEU, EURL, FIEU
- Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL
Wednesday, Jan 297:22 AM
Wednesday, Jan 297:22 AM| Comment!
- Stock index futures (SPY, DIA, QQQ) are flat as earnings continue to pour in and ahead of the results of the FOMC meeting. Futures got a nice boost last night after Turkey jacked rates 425 basis points to combat the declining lira, but that bounce is gone, and Europe's flat after opening with big gains, and Turkey (TUR) is now lower by 1%.
- The big mover in Asia overnight was Tokyo which gained 2.7%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is up one basis point to 2.77% and gold is up 0.8% to $1,261 per ounce.
Wednesday, Jan 294:30 AM
Wednesday, Jan 294:30 AM| 2 Comments
- The Turkish lira has jumped against the dollar following the "shock and awe" rate hikes by the Central Bank of Turkey yesterday (CBRT), which has also sent global equities higher along with other emerging-market currencies.
- Turkey's move follows similar action in India and Brazil; attention could now turn to South Africa's central bank, which is meeting today, although it's not expected to raise rates.
- USD-TRY -1.1% to 2.2283 Turkish lira; USD-INR -0.55% to 62.423 Indian rupees.
- Stocks: Japan +2.7%, Hong Kong +0.8%, China +0.6%, India +0.3%.
- EU Stoxx 50 +0.6%, London +0.8%, Paris +0.7%, Frankfurt +0.9%, Madrid +0.9%, Milan +0.8%, Turkey (TUR) +0.8%.
- U.S. stock futures: Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.4%. Nasdaq +0.4%
Tuesday, Jan 286:24 PM
Tuesday, Jan 286:24 PM| 20 Comments
- The Turkish central bank hikes its overnight lending rate to 12% from 7.75% and the overnight borrowing rate to 8% from 3.5%, in a surprisingly strong move to defend the country's embattled currency and perhaps alleviate the declines in emerging market currencies.
- Analysts say Turkey's decision is significant since the central bank had come across as reluctant to take action - indeed, it's political independence was not considered a certainty.
- The turkish lira jumps more than 3% on the move, which has propelled Dow futures sharply higher and should spark a strong open for Asia's equity markets.
- ETFs: TUR, ARGT.
Tuesday, Jan 2811:44 AM
Tuesday, Jan 2811:44 AM| 3 Comments
- The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (ETF: EEM) is off 22% from a peak set about three years ago, with the most recent slide coming as currencies tumble. Central banks have begun hiking rates to combat, with India overnight boosting its benchmark for the third time in six months and Turkey expected to take action today (an announcement is due at 5 ET). The South African central bank meets tomorrow, but a rate hike is not necessarily on the table.
- As usual, the unwinding of an epic credit bubble in China and the effect on growth tops the list of fears. One trust product - the China Credit Trust - narrowly avoided default this week thanks to a mystery third-party rescue.
- Buy the dip, says Ashmore head of research Jan Dehn. “There is some serious dumbing down going on in financial markets right now when it comes to EM. EM debt levels (especially external debt), EM’s general reliance on external markets, and EM’s reserve holdings have all improved beyond all recognition over the past 10 years.”
- Loomis Sayles' Peter Marber: “Compared to 1998, emerging markets hold over $7T more in hard currency reserves to cushion themselves from market volatility. For most emerging markets, the problems today are nothing like the problems of the mid-1990s. Very few countries are near default, and those that may be are relatively small.”
- Turkey and India ETFs: TUR, EPI, INDY, SCIF, PIN, INP, INDL, ICN, INR, INDA, SCIN, INXX, INCO, SMIN
- EM ETFs: EEM, VWO, DEM, EDC, DGS, EDZ, EEMV, EEB, SCHE, EDIV, IEMG, DVYE, EEV, BIK, EWX, BKF, CEW, PIE, ADRE, HILO, EUM, FNI, EET, GMM, PXH, EEMS, BBRC, EELV, FEMS, EEME, EMDD, BICK, DBEM, EMCR, FEM, EWEM, EVAL, EMBB, JEM, EMLB, EEHB, TLTE, EGRW, FNDE, EMHD, EMSA, EMFT, EMDR, QEM, QDEM
Tuesday, Jan 284:55 AM
Tuesday, Jan 284:55 AM| Comment!
- The Turkish lira has strengthened against the dollar ahead of an emergency meeting tonight of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT).
- Analysts forecast that the bank will hike rates sharply to defend the lira after deciding on inaction at a meeting last week, which sent the the currency spiraling. The lira hit a fresh low against the dollar yesterday but then bounced sharply after the CBRT announced today's meeting.
- Nomura strategist Olgay Buyukkayali reckons the bank could increase the marginal funding rate by 200 bps to 9.75% and express a hawkish bias. Standard Bank economist Timothy Ash is calling for a rise of "300 basis points plus, with more to come."
- UBS adviser George Magnus believes the CBRT could even announce capital controls.
- The USD-TRY is -1% at 2.2597, while the ISE 100 stock index (TUR) is +1%.
- Update: Governor Erdem Basci gave a strong indication that the bank will tighten policy tonight when he delivered the bank's quarterly inflation report today.
- The bank increased its expectations for year-end inflation to 6.6% from 5.3% vs a goal of 5%.
- "The central bank will use all its policy tools to converge inflation to the 5% target," Basci said. "Our aim at tonight's meeting is to avoid a deterioration of pricing behavior and to take steps to ensure price stability." He also said: "We won't refrain from implementing permanent policy tightening if needed."
Monday, Jan 277:25 AM
Monday, Jan 277:25 AM| 3 Comments
- The Turkish lira has undergone an extraordinary bounce after the country's central bank set an emergency meeting for tomorrow aimed at new policy measures to ensure price stability (i.e., a big rate hike).
- At this point, a failure to raise rates in a big way is likely to really trigger a selloff, say some analysts. "They have to hike ... and aggressively," says Standard Bank's Tim Ash.
- TUR +3.9% premarket, and Europe edges into the green for the session.
Friday, Jan 248:16 AM
Friday, Jan 248:16 AM| 7 Comments
- The iShares Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM) is off 1.3% in the premarket as investors rush out of emerging currencies. The Turkish lira plunged to a record low today, while Ukraine's hryvnia fell to a four-year low, and South Africa's Rand dove to its weakest since October 2008 following Argentina's decision to devalue the peso and a weak PMI report out of China yesterday.
- “We continue to see the risks surrounding China’s macro trajectory as having a negative impact on EM,” says Morgan Stanley's Rashique Rahman. “As capital costs rise and investment slows, commodity prices should come under pressure, boding poorly for economies linked to China’s old growth model.”
- In Russia, the ruble has declined to an all-time low vs. the euro.
- Of Turkey from Rareview Macro's Neil Azous: "Their net foreign-exchange reserves are dwindling pretty fast. They’re definitely in the danger zone. If you’re a money manager, the responsible action is to take some measures to reduce risk.”
- Emerging market ETFs: EEM, VWO, DEM, EDC, DGS, EDZ, EEMV, EEB, SCHE, EDIV, IEMG, DVYE, EEV, BIK, EWX, BKF, PIE, CEW, ADRE, HILO, EUM, FNI, EET, GMM, PXH, BBRC, EEMS, EELV, FEMS, EEME, EMDD, BICK, EMCR, DBEM, FEM, EWEM, EVAL, JEM, EMLB, EMBB, TLTE, EEHB, EGRW, FNDE, EMSA, EMHD, EMFT, EMDR, QEM, QDEM
- Relevant country ETFs: TUR, EWS, EZA, ARGT, EWSS, FXSG
Friday, Dec 272013, 7:39 AM
Friday, Dec 272013, 7:39 AM| 19 Comments
- The Istanbul National 100 Index is off nearly another 5% as Prime Minster Erdogan's cabinet shuffle - in which he replaced half of his team with arch-loyalists - has failed to halt the opposition. TUR -7.7% premarket.
- The weakening lira looks to be giving the euro (FXE) a bid across the board; it's ahead 1.1% vs. the greenback to $1.3842 - the highest level in more than 2 years. European stocks overall are doing fine, the Stoxx 50 up 1%.
- Euro ETFs: FXE, EUO, ERO, DRR, EUFX, ULE, URR
Thursday, Dec 262013, 3:11 AM
Thursday, Dec 262013, 3:11 AM| 4 Comments
- Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has replaced ten ministers, half of the total number, following the resignation of three ministers yesterday amid a probe into bribery, fraud and gold smuggling.
- The new cabinet members include the economy minister after the previous incumbent quit along with the environment minister, who called on Erdogan to resign as well.
- To add to the PM's worries, anti-corruption protests took place in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, with the one in Istanbul turning violent.
- The scandal has badly hit Turkish stocks (TUR) and the ISE 100 index is -0.4% after plummeting 4.2% yesterday. The USD-TRY is +0.6% at 2.0899 lira.
Wednesday, Dec 252013, 7:43 AM
Wednesday, Dec 252013, 7:43 AM| 11 Comments
- Turkish Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan and Interior Minister Muammer Guler have resigned amid a corruption probe that has turned into a battle between the government on one side, and Turkey's judiciary and police on the other.
- The ministers resigned after their sons were among 24 people arrested following accusations of bribery, money laundering and gold smuggling.
- The affair has hurt investor confidence and driven down share prices, although BlackRock (BLK) views the situation as an opportunity. "We have been adding to positions in Turkey...as valuations are now compelling," says BlackRock's Sam Vecht. As it happens, BlackRock is the top private shareholder in two companies whose CEOs have been detained: state-owned lender Turkiye Halk Bankasi (THBIF) and real-estate developer Emlak Konut Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi (EKKGF).
- The ISE 100 stock index is -2.4%, while the USD-TRY is -0.1% at 2.077 Turkish lira.
- Update: The environment minister has also stepped down and called for Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan to follow suit.
- ETF: TUR