Seeking Alpha

iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR)

  • Mon, Mar. 16, 12:06 PM
    • "If the bond market were to lose confidence in the Central Bank of Turkey's independence, the downside for Turkish assets could be significant," say the managers of the JOHCM Emerging Market Opportunities Fund (MUTF:JOEAX), explaining why they don't own any Turkish stocks. "President Recep Tayyip Erdogan displays a lack of commitment to international norms of corporate governance, conventional monetary policy and central bank independence."
    • The fund is overweight India though, with the managers noting PM Modi's reforms - previously considered impossible - are being delivered. They also call Raghuram Rajan one of the world's best central bank governors.
    • The fund is ahead 1.8% to date, while the iShares Turkey ETF (NYSEARCA:TUR) is down 19%, and the iShares India ETF (BATS:INDA) is up 7.2%.
    | 1 Comment
  • Tue, Mar. 10, 5:33 AM
    • Adding to global currency woes, Denmark's krone and Turkey's lira are facing trouble, as political pressure and monetary policy trigger more turbulence in the foreign exchange market.
    • Denmark has spent the last eight weeks fighting back conjecture it would pull a Switzerland and abandon its ties to the euro, while Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu will hold a meeting with cabinet ministers and the country's central bank later today to discuss the lira's more than 10% loss against the dollar since the beginning of the year.
    • Previously: Euro falls to 12-year low (Mar. 10 2015)
    • ETFs: EDEN, TUR -1.7% premarket
    | Comment!
  • Thu, Mar. 5, 7:36 AM
    • Citigroup (C -0.1%) purchased a 20% stake in Turkey's 2nd largest bank (by market value) in 2007 for $3.1B, and today sold its remaining 9.9% holding for $1.15. Combined with a previous sale of a near equivalent amount, Citi lost $800M on the investment.
    • At this point for Citi, exiting non-core investments is of more import than wringing every last dollar out of them, nevertheless, some analysts say Citi's willingness to take a big loss on the Turkish lender signals more trouble for that stock market (NYSEARCA:TUR) - the globe's 2nd worst-performer in February.
    • While Citi has exited the retail banking business in Turkey, it will continue to serve corporate and commercial clients.
    • TUR -2.1% premarket, led by a 5.4% decline in Akbank.
  • Wed, Mar. 4, 3:01 PM
    • A record low for Turkey's lira against the dollar is driving the country's market lower -- and the currency's performance tends to hit wireless provider Turkcell (TKC -2.4%).
    • The Turkish lira would be the world's worst performer in emerging markets, except for the Brazilian real.
    • Conflict continues between the country's central bank and the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who's accused the bank of treason for resisting rate cuts.
    • Meanwhile, with the announcement of 4G tender specifications by the government, Turkcell says it's ready to launch 4G service in country "at the earliest possible time." The tender is expected by the end of May; "Had the government held the tender tomorrow, we would have been ready for it," says acting CEO Ilker Kuruoz.
    • Related stocks: (OTCPK:OGZPY -2.3%), (OTCQX:TKGBY -4.3%), (OTCPK:TAVHY -1.9%). ETF: (TUR -4.1%)
    • Previously: Turkcell follows Turkish trades lower (Feb. 27 2015)
    • Previously: Turkey tumbles as government takes over Bank Asya (Feb. 04 2015)
  • Fri, Feb. 27, 2:03 PM
    • Turkish mobile leader Turkcell (TKC -2.1%) is lower today, along with other Turkish trades, as Société Générale bails out of the country: "We just closed all our bullish trades on Turkey."
    • The firm expects the Turkish lira to sell off in the aftermath of the central bank's rate cut -- and its dispute with Turkey's leadership over monetary policy.
    • SocGen has taken out a long position in dollar/lira volatility that it says is already paying off.
    • The Turkish lira has slipped 3% against the dollar over the past week.
    • Related stocks: (OTCQX:TKGBY -3.4%), (OTCPK:TAVHY -2.3%)
    • ETFs: TUR -2%.
    • Previously: Turkey tumbles as government takes over Bank Asya (Feb. 04 2015)
    | Comment!
  • Wed, Feb. 4, 12:38 PM
    • Bank Asya is an Islamic bank set up followers of cleric Fethullah Gulen, and the government says the takeover is about preventing the lender's failure, while others hurl accusations of political meddling.
    • "This operation is very much linked to a personal grudge and it goes down very badly with investor communities. Once this perception is spread, you can't change it," says Global Source Partners economist Atilla Yesilada.
    • TUR -5.25%
    | 1 Comment
  • Tue, Jan. 20, 12:39 PM
    • Turkey's central bank cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 50 basis points to 7.75%. The bank left its interest rate corridor - the overnight lending rate and overnight borrowing rate - unchanged at 7.5% and 11.25%.
    • The rate cut looks to be in response to government pressure, but Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci isn't impressed, and says the bank should have cut the lower bound of the rate corridor as well. Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus dittoed those thoughts, saying the rate cut "offers no benefit to Turkey's growth targets and development of real economy."
    • With the inflation rate still well north of the central bank's 5% target, monetary policy remains tight.
    • ETF: TUR
    | Comment!
  • Fri, Jan. 9, 2:26 PM
    • With domestic economies slowing, the key theme is to find countries and stocks within those countries most exposed to external demand, says the Goldman team.
    • Taiwan is the "most concentrated export story," they say, and also happens to be well-insulated from a rising rate environment in the U.S.
    • Taiwan ETFs: EWT, FTW, QTWN; and there's also the FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:VWO) - which has Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) as a top holding.
    • India and Turkey are two of the "prime beneficiaries" of lower oil prices, says Goldman, looking for continued improvement in their current account balances. The two countries' markets may also benefit from domestic rate cuts.
    • Turkey ETFs: TUR
  • Dec. 31, 2014, 11:34 AM
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  • Aug. 18, 2014, 7:20 AM
    • With Moscow's new agricultural import restrictions, neighboring Russian countries are likely to see an increase of trade traffic through their borders.
    • Sanctions have been imposed on many Western nations as retaliatory measures, but other countries close to Russia, such as Turkey, Belarus and Kazakhstan are still available to trade with Moscow.
    • The newly created medium may form a "black market" where firms ship to Russia through countries not included in the sanctions, evading the ban on EU produce.
    • Vladimir Putin has already spoken to his Kazakh and Belarussian counterparts, seeking cooperation against Western foodstuffs, although EU leaders seem unlikely to deter traders who circumvent the embargo via third countries.
    | Comment!
  • Aug. 11, 2014, 3:02 PM
    • Turkish stocks initially jumped 1.5% following Prime Minister Erdogan's victory in that country's first direct presidential election on Sunday, but ended the day sharply lower, the Istanbul 100 Index -2.4%.
    • "The outright victory of Erdogan in Sunday's vote, the first round of Turkey's first popular presidential election, does little to ameliorate the political risk to Turkey's sovereign credit profile," says Fitch.
    • Erdogan is set to take office for a 5-year term on August 28 amid inflation which has been running for nearly double the government's 5% goal for a couple of years. He also faces a cabinet reshuffle, including the exit of Deputy PM Ali Babacan who has an international reputation for being the country's economy czar. "The risk I see on the short run is that Erdogan decides to reshuffle the cabinet immediately, not waiting until the parliamentary elections, and replace the guys with market credibility," says an emerging markets fund manager.
    • TUR -3.3%
    | Comment!
  • Jul. 24, 2014, 1:26 PM
    • It's been a nice run for emerging markets since mid-March with iShares' EEM ahead 18.7%, about 1000 basis points better than the S&P 500. Vanguard's (NYSEARCA:VWO) did even better, returning 20.9%.
    • Looking at individual markets, WisdomTree's India Earnings Fund (NYSEARCA:EPIrose 30.1%, iShares' Turkey ETF (NYSEARCA:TUR44.2%, and iShares' Brazil Capped ETF (NYSEARCA:EWZ33.2%.
    • The trouble, according to UBS, is these markets have been rallying as analysts at the bank have been cutting earnings forecasts, now seeing 12.5% earnings growth, down from 15.3% estimated in April. Consensus forecasts during the same time frame have fallen to 9.6% from 14.7%. "We believe EM equities need a rebound in earnings momentum in time to justify a further strong upside breakout."
    • On the good side, the team is increasingly assured that corporate margins bottomed in 2012; they rose 10-40 bps last year and should pop another 30-40 bps this year.
    | Comment!
  • Jul. 3, 2014, 6:46 AM
    • The escalating violence in Iraq and Syria is disrupting trade routes all across the Middle East, and reversing the region's past decade of growth. Supplies have either been either interrupted, or have needed to be re-routed, increasing costs in any scenario.
    • Economic difficulties are also hitting Turkey, as the country is Iraq's second biggest export market after Germany, with $12B of sales last year.
    • “There is no problem with our trade with Kurdistan but to get our trucks down to the rest of Iraqi territory will be very difficult,” says Serif Egeli, a Turkish businessman. “As long as there is no government in Baghdad, it is very difficult to go on with projects and if there are no projects, you can’t sell much more than textiles and food.”
  • Jun. 27, 2014, 11:21 AM
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  • Jun. 24, 2014, 8:34 AM
    • The central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate for a 2nd consecutive month with a 75 basis point cut in the one-week repo rate to 8.75%. The overnight borrowing rate remains at 8% and the overnight lending rate at 12%.
    • Economists had expected a cut of between 50 and 75 bps this month, though some had also expected reductions in the overnight rates as well. The central bank, however, noted improving global liquidity conditions as a reason for the "measured" action.
    • Turkish stocks are about flat on the session.
    • ETFs: TUR
    | Comment!
  • Jun. 5, 2014, 3:49 PM
    • Europe's Stoxx 50 gained nearly 1% in wake of today's ECB rate cut and move towards QE, but the periphery outperformed, with the strongest market being the one furthest out - Athens +2.8%.
    • The Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK +3.4%) is now up 40% Y/Y.
    • National Bank of Greece (NBG +6.5%) also enjoyed an upgrade to Buy from Deutsche Bank.
    • Emerging European markets: Turkey (TUR +3.5%) and Poland (EPOL +1.6%).
    • ETFs: GUR, ESR
    • Previously: Negative rates not the end of moves for the ECB
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TUR Description
The iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index.
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Country: Turkey
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