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Mon, Aug. 18, 7:20 AM
- With Moscow's new agricultural import restrictions, neighboring Russian countries are likely to see an increase of trade traffic through their borders.
- Sanctions have been imposed on many Western nations as retaliatory measures, but other countries close to Russia, such as Turkey, Belarus and Kazakhstan are still available to trade with Moscow.
- The newly created medium may form a "black market" where firms ship to Russia through countries not included in the sanctions, evading the ban on EU produce.
- Vladimir Putin has already spoken to his Kazakh and Belarussian counterparts, seeking cooperation against Western foodstuffs, although EU leaders seem unlikely to deter traders who circumvent the embargo via third countries.
- ETFs: RSX, TUR, RUSL, RSXJ, ERUS, RUSS, RBL, RUDR
Mon, Aug. 11, 3:02 PM
- Turkish stocks initially jumped 1.5% following Prime Minister Erdogan's victory in that country's first direct presidential election on Sunday, but ended the day sharply lower, the Istanbul 100 Index -2.4%.
- "The outright victory of Erdogan in Sunday's vote, the first round of Turkey's first popular presidential election, does little to ameliorate the political risk to Turkey's sovereign credit profile," says Fitch.
- Erdogan is set to take office for a 5-year term on August 28 amid inflation which has been running for nearly double the government's 5% goal for a couple of years. He also faces a cabinet reshuffle, including the exit of Deputy PM Ali Babacan who has an international reputation for being the country's economy czar. "The risk I see on the short run is that Erdogan decides to reshuffle the cabinet immediately, not waiting until the parliamentary elections, and replace the guys with market credibility," says an emerging markets fund manager.
- TUR -3.3%
Thu, Jul. 24, 1:26 PM
- It's been a nice run for emerging markets since mid-March with iShares' EEM ahead 18.7%, about 1000 basis points better than the S&P 500. Vanguard's (NYSEARCA:VWO) did even better, returning 20.9%.
- Looking at individual markets, WisdomTree's India Earnings Fund (NYSEARCA:EPI) rose 30.1%, iShares' Turkey ETF (NYSEARCA:TUR) 44.2%, and iShares' Brazil Capped ETF (NYSEARCA:EWZ) 33.2%.
- The trouble, according to UBS, is these markets have been rallying as analysts at the bank have been cutting earnings forecasts, now seeing 12.5% earnings growth, down from 15.3% estimated in April. Consensus forecasts during the same time frame have fallen to 9.6% from 14.7%. "We believe EM equities need a rebound in earnings momentum in time to justify a further strong upside breakout."
- On the good side, the team is increasingly assured that corporate margins bottomed in 2012; they rose 10-40 bps last year and should pop another 30-40 bps this year.
- ETFs: EEM, VWO, EDC, EDZ, SCHE, IEMG, EEV, ADRE, EUM, EET, GMM, EEME, DBEM, EMCR, FEM, EWEM, EMLB, EMSA, EMDR, EMFT
Thu, Jul. 3, 6:46 AM
- The escalating violence in Iraq and Syria is disrupting trade routes all across the Middle East, and reversing the region's past decade of growth. Supplies have either been either interrupted, or have needed to be re-routed, increasing costs in any scenario.
- Economic difficulties are also hitting Turkey, as the country is Iraq's second biggest export market after Germany, with $12B of sales last year.
- “There is no problem with our trade with Kurdistan but to get our trucks down to the rest of Iraqi territory will be very difficult,” says Serif Egeli, a Turkish businessman. “As long as there is no government in Baghdad, it is very difficult to go on with projects and if there are no projects, you can’t sell much more than textiles and food.”
- ETFs: TUR, EIS, ISRA, UAE, QAT, EGPT, GULF, MES
Fri, Jun. 27, 11:21 AM
- Emerging market equity funds reported $1.3B of inflows for the week ended June 25, with Asia funds - $1.5B in inflows, the largest since February 2013 - being the biggest beneficiaries. LatAm and CEEMMA funds continued to see outflows.
- On a country basis, Taiwan (EWT), Korea (EWY), and China (FXI) saw the largest inflows, while Egypt (EGPT), Mexico (EWW), and Turkey (TUR) reported the largest outflows.
- Broad EM ETFs: EEM, VWO, EDC, EDZ, SCHE, IEMG, EEV, ADRE, EUM, EET, GMM, EEME, DBEM, EMCR, FEM, EWEM, EMLB, EMSA, EMDR, EMFT
- Broad LatAm ETFs: ILF, LBJ, GML, EEML, FLN
Tue, Jun. 24, 8:34 AM
- The central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate for a 2nd consecutive month with a 75 basis point cut in the one-week repo rate to 8.75%. The overnight borrowing rate remains at 8% and the overnight lending rate at 12%.
- Economists had expected a cut of between 50 and 75 bps this month, though some had also expected reductions in the overnight rates as well. The central bank, however, noted improving global liquidity conditions as a reason for the "measured" action.
- Turkish stocks are about flat on the session.
- ETFs: TUR
Thu, Jun. 5, 3:49 PM
- Europe's Stoxx 50 gained nearly 1% in wake of today's ECB rate cut and move towards QE, but the periphery outperformed, with the strongest market being the one furthest out - Athens +2.8%.
- The Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK +3.4%) is now up 40% Y/Y.
- National Bank of Greece (NBG +6.5%) also enjoyed an upgrade to Buy from Deutsche Bank.
- Emerging European markets: Turkey (TUR +3.5%) and Poland (EPOL +1.6%).
- ETFs: GUR, ESR
- Previously: Negative rates not the end of moves for the ECB
Mon, Mar. 31, 7:28 AM
- Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan gets a boost as his AKP Party receives about 46% of the vote (vs. 39% for its leading opponent) in local elections as a strong economy outweighs civil unrest in the country and increasing criticism of his autocratic rule.
- After a big rally ahead of the election, the Istanbul index opened sharply higher, before closing up just 0.55%. TUR +3.3% premarket
Fri, Mar. 28, 9:17 AM
- Days after shutting down access to Twitter, the government of Prime Minister Erdogan blocked YouTube and restricted local media ahead of critical local elections. The move came after a leaked recording hit the site apparently showing Turkey's foreign minister, spy chief, and a top general discussing ways to create a pretext for the country to attack Syria.
- Speaking at an election rally, Erdogan called the leak "villainous, cowardly, an dishonest." Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu called it "a declaration of war."
- Turkish stocks brush off the clampdown, not to mention even higher tensions with Syria, climbing 2.2%. TUR +2.8% premarket
Tue, Mar. 18, 12:28 PM
- Investors “are selling emerging markets which have very low valuations, significant dividend yields but have underperformed in recent times ... [for developed markets] which have relatively high valuations, potentially limited long-term earnings growth and where markets have just gone up rather fast," says Sam Vecht, a portfolio manager at BlackRock Emerging Europe Trust.
- Mostly bearish on emerging markets in general and Turkey in particular over the past years, Vecht and team have turned bullish in the past few months, citing low valuations and high interest rates (high rates can go lower; zero rates can't).
- EM ETFs: EEM, VWO, DEM, EDC, DGS, EDZ, EEMV, SCHE, EEB, EDIV, IEMG, DVYE, EEV, EWX, BIK, BKF, PIE, ADRE, HILO, EUM, FNI, EET, GMM, PXH, EEMS, BBRC, EELV, DGRE, FEMS, EEME, EMDD, BICK, EMCR, DBEM, FEM, EWEM, EVAL, EMBB, TLTE, EMLB, FNDE, EEHB, EMHD, EMDG, EGRW, EMSA, EMFT, QEM, EMDR, QDEM
- Turkey ETFs: TUR
Mon, Feb. 3, 8:43 AM
- In order to draw the necessary capital to pull emerging markets out of their swoon, real interest rates have to go higher, says Citigroup. A near-doubling of the benchmark rate in Turkey last week only pulled one-year borrowing costs up to 3.6%, less than half the average in the thee years prior to 2008. The real yield in Mexico (EWW) is about zero. In South Africa, it's 1.4% vs. 2% over the past decade.
- “When you have low real rates and try to finance your current-account deficits, it usually won’t work,” says Citi LatAm strategist Dirk Willer. “If the U.S. is repricing for higher rates, it’s very difficult for you to get away with lower rates. South Africa (EZA) and Turkey (TUR) are not safe yet.”
- EEM -0.5% premarket
- Related ETFs: EEM, VWO, DEM, EDC, DGS, EDZ, CYB, EEMV, SCHE, EEB, CNY, EDIV, BZF, IEMG, DVYE, EEV, EWX, BIK, BKF, CEW, PIE, ICN, ADRE, HILO, INR, EUM, FNI, EET, FXCH, GMM, PXH, INCO, EEMS, BBRC, EELV, FEMS, DGRE, EEME, AYT, EMDD, BICK, DBEM, EMCR, PGD, FEM, EWEM, EMLB, JEM, EMBB, EVAL, TLTE, EEHB, EGRW, FNDE, EMDG, EMHD, EMSA, EMFT, EMDR, QEM, QDEM
Thu, Jan. 30, 1:17 PM
- “International monetary cooperation has broken down,” says India central bank boss Raghuram Rajan, a day after the Fed boosted the size of its taper and made no mention of melting-down emerging markets. Rajan joined counterparts from Turkey and South Africa this week in boosting rates to try and stem the slide in their domestic currencies.
- "The challenge is brought on by their own domestic policies," says former Fed Governor Randy Krosner. "It's unfair to say it's all the Fed's fault."
- Back in his IMF days in 2011, Rajan authored a report calling for the formation of a committee composed of representatives from the major central banks who would report on the spillover consequences of their individual policies. Good luck with that one.
- Emerging markets are getting a respite today amid a big rally in the West (of the West is rallying because of a respite in emerging markets).
- EEM +0.8%, VWO +1%.
- TUR +1.9%, EPI +1.7%, ARGT +0.5%, RSX +0.7%.
- Related ETFs: EEM, VWO, DEM, RSX, EDC, EPI, DGS, INDY, EDZ, CYB, SCIF, PIN, INP, EEMV, EZA, SCHE, EEB, CNY, EDIV, INDL, BZF, IEMG, DVYE, RUSL, EEV, BIK, EWX, BKF, CEW, PIE, ICN, ERUS, ADRE, HILO, INR, RUSS, INDA, SCIN, INXX, EUM, FNI, RSXJ, EET, FXCH, RBL, GMM, PXH, INCO, EEMS, BBRC, EELV, SMIN, FEMS, DGRE, EEME, EMDD, BICK, AYT, DBEM, EMCR, PGD, FEM, EWEM, EMBB, EMLB, JEM, EVAL, TLTE, EEHB, EGRW, FNDE, EMDG, EMHD, EMSA, EMDR, EMFT, QEM, RUDR, QDEM
Wed, Jan. 29, 10:54 AM
- Who could have thought raising interest rates 425 basis points would be bearish? A curious rally following Turkey's defense of the lira - it jacked rates to 12% from 7.75% - has completely reversed. One feels a 1992-like vibe where the Bank of England hiked like crazy to defend the pound, but then ultimately had to let it go (also creating a bottom in stocks).
- In Europe, the Stoxx 50 (FEZ) is off 1.3%, with Turkey (TUR) now down 2.3%.
- South Africa joins the party, unexpectedly hiking its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%. EZA -2.8%.
- A check of Brazil (EWZ -1.3%) and India (EPI -1.1%) - where monetary policy has also been tightened this week - finds them lower as well.
- The money is flowing into U.S. Treasurys which continue a big 2014 rally. The 10-year yield is off five basis points to 2.71%. TLT +0.3%, TBT -0.5%.
- Europe ETFs: ETFs: FXE, VGK, EUO, FEZ, ERO, EU, DFE, IEV, EPV, EZU, HEDJ, DRR, GXF, FEU, GUR, FDD, EUFX, ESR, UPV, ULE, FEP, ADRU, URR, FEEU, EURZ, DBEU, EURL, FIEU
- Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL
Wed, Jan. 29, 7:22 AM
- Stock index futures (SPY, DIA, QQQ) are flat as earnings continue to pour in and ahead of the results of the FOMC meeting. Futures got a nice boost last night after Turkey jacked rates 425 basis points to combat the declining lira, but that bounce is gone, and Europe's flat after opening with big gains, and Turkey (TUR) is now lower by 1%.
- The big mover in Asia overnight was Tokyo which gained 2.7%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is up one basis point to 2.77% and gold is up 0.8% to $1,261 per ounce.
Wed, Jan. 29, 4:30 AM
- The Turkish lira has jumped against the dollar following the "shock and awe" rate hikes by the Central Bank of Turkey yesterday (CBRT), which has also sent global equities higher along with other emerging-market currencies.
- Turkey's move follows similar action in India and Brazil; attention could now turn to South Africa's central bank, which is meeting today, although it's not expected to raise rates.
- USD-TRY -1.1% to 2.2283 Turkish lira; USD-INR -0.55% to 62.423 Indian rupees.
- Stocks: Japan +2.7%, Hong Kong +0.8%, China +0.6%, India +0.3%.
- EU Stoxx 50 +0.6%, London +0.8%, Paris +0.7%, Frankfurt +0.9%, Madrid +0.9%, Milan +0.8%, Turkey (TUR) +0.8%.
- U.S. stock futures: Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.4%. Nasdaq +0.4%
Tue, Jan. 28, 6:24 PM
- The Turkish central bank hikes its overnight lending rate to 12% from 7.75% and the overnight borrowing rate to 8% from 3.5%, in a surprisingly strong move to defend the country's embattled currency and perhaps alleviate the declines in emerging market currencies.
- Analysts say Turkey's decision is significant since the central bank had come across as reluctant to take action - indeed, it's political independence was not considered a certainty.
- The turkish lira jumps more than 3% on the move, which has propelled Dow futures sharply higher and should spark a strong open for Asia's equity markets.
- ETFs: TUR, ARGT.
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