- Comcast is the best bet right now. It is what everyone else wants to be.
- The trick is to vertically integrate, combining infrastructure with programming assets.
- Merger approval will be the starting gun on another round of consolidation, focused on content.
- Tencent and HBO formed an exclusive partnership in which Tencent will air HBO content.
- This is a major positive for Tencent due to exclusive content that makes it competitive against BIDU and YOKU.
- Subscription-based service is the long-term driver of Tencent video.
- The whisper number is $1.92, one cent ahead of the analysts' estimate.
- Time Warner Cable has a 69% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 9 of the 13 earnings reports for which we have data).
- The overall average post earnings price move is 'as expected' (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see weakness) when the company reports earnings.
- With broadband coverage in the United States being 70% at present, there is still room left for growth in this area.
- Time Warner Cable broadband division accounts for 40% of their stock value.
- Broadband revenues earned by Time Warner Cable have increased from being $3.7 billion in 2007 to almost $7 billion in 2013.
What You Don't Know About The Comcast-Time Warner Cable Merger
- Comcast acquires Time Warner Cable for $45.2 billion, but is it worth it?
- Net broadband subscribers additions slowing down.
- High debt, not enough cash in hand.
- Not focusing on the voice and video business.
Time Warner Cable: 3 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares During The Last 30 DaysMarkus Aarnio • Apr. 10, 2014
- Three insiders sold Time Warner Cable stock within one month.
- The stock was not purchased by any insiders in the month of intensive selling.
- All three of these insiders decreased their holdings by more than 10%.
- Overview of the details of the Comcast and Time Warner merger deal.
- Analysis and rational as to why the deal will go through contrary to popular belief.
- Risk/reward analysis of the type of trade that could best capitalize on the merger and how best to profit from it.
Time Warner's Triple Play Package: The Multi-Bidder Contest For Time Warner Cable
- One of Rangeley Capital's themes for 2014 is cable industry consolidation.
- The merger arbitrage spread in the CMCSA-TWC deal is wide.
- This wide spread is an attractive investment opportunity relative to its risks.
Risk Arbitrage On The Time Warner Cable And Comcast Deal
Reasons The FCC Should Block The Comcast/TW Merger
Time Warner Cable Bonds: Where Yield And Risk Intersect
Thu, Jan. 15, 12:40 PM
- Barry Diller says there's no stretch left on pay-TV pricing as he dissects the influence of Amazon Prime (NASDAQ:AMZN) in the industry.
- He warns on the Prime model where adding subscribers for the company dwarfs concerns on viewership and advertising.
- By the sound of it, Diller isn't recommended staying long cable stocks (CMCSA, TWC, CHTR, CVC) or positive on programmers (SNI, CBS, AMCX, FOXA, VIA, VIAB, MSG, DIS) set to renegotiate carriage deals.
- CNBC interview (video)
- Previously: Woody Allen to direct series for Amazon Studios (Jan. 13)
- Previously: Amazon added over 10M new Prime users during holiday season (Dec. 26, 2014)
Wed, Jan. 14, 4:08 AM
- Building on his previous call for the FCC to regulate broadband service as a utility, President Obama will push the FCC today to overturn state laws that prevent cities from building their own broadband networks.
- The centerpiece of the initiative is a call for the FCC to pre-empt laws in 19 states that can prevent cities and localities from building their own high-speed broadband networks.
- FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler has already indicated that he is strongly considering the move.
- Related Tickers: CMCSA, T, VZ, TWC, NFLX, CTL, CHTR, FTR, ELNK
Tue, Jan. 13, 1:56 PM
- The regulatory meter is running again on the merger between Time Warner Cable (TWC +0.7%) and Comcast (CMCSA +0.8%).
- The FCC paused the review to catch up on 7K pages of documents it hadn't accounted for previously.
- A lengthy review of the TWC-CMCSA deal puts the combined company at a slight disadvantage when it re-enters a changed pay-TV landscape.
Tue, Jan. 6, 6:50 AM
Dec. 31, 2014, 8:42 AM
- Streaming: Sony (NYSE:SNE), HBO (NYSE:TWX), CBS (NYSE:CBS), and Dish Networks (NASDAQ:DISH) are set to unveil streaming products in 2015. The theory of the companies that the skinny bundles will draw in more cord-cutters and cord-nevers than they will cannibalize current pay-TV subscribers will be put to the test. The rush of streaming options could help or hurt Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) depending upon which analysis an investor leans on.
- Theater traffic rebound: Exhibitors (CNK, RGC, AMC, CKEC, IMAX) and movie studios (LGF, VIA, VIAB, DIS, FOXA, CMCSA, TWX) maintain that the decline in theater attendance in 2014 (-6%) was due to a slate of films light on blockbusters. A bounce is forecast for 2015 with high-profile films such as Avengers: The Age of Ultron, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, Fifty Shades of Grey, Jurassic World, Spectre (James Bond), and Mission Impossible 5 all set to premiere - along with the reboot of the Star Wars franchise in December. Capex spending on theater upgrades could also help boost in-theater spending and average ticket price for exhibitors.
- Mergers: If regulators allow the Comcast-Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) and AT&T-DirecTV (NASDAQ:DTV) mergers to sail through it could clear a path for other media combinations, note analysts. Potential buyers include Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), Wanda Group, Softbank (OTCPK:SFTBY), and a TWX-rebuffed 21st Century Fox (NASDAQ:FOXA). Content producers which could be targets include Starz (NASDAQ:STRZA), Lions Gate (NYSE:LGF), DreamWorks Animation (NASDAQ:DWA), AMC Networks (NASDAQ:AMCX), and Scripps Networks (NYSE:SNI). A split-up Madison Square Garden (NASDAQ:MSG) could also be enticing.
Dec. 23, 2014, 1:52 AM
- The FCC is again pausing its review of the proposed $45B merger of Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC), citing delays in getting documents from the latter.
- Imposing an informal 180-day countdown for the review, the FCC is determining whether combining the cable companies is in the public interest.
- Time Warner Cable has promised to produce the missing documents, but the agency is pausing the review at day 104 until Jan. 12, saying it needs extra time to study new submissions.
Dec. 17, 2014, 11:32 AM
- Dish Network (DISH +0.6%) says Netflix might be integrated into the company's upcoming streaming subscription product and be part of its search functions.
- The OTT programming package from the satellite company is set to include Disney Channel, Disney XD, ESPN, ABC, A&E, History, Lifetime, H2, HGTV, DIY Network, Food Network, Cooking Channel, and Travel Channel among other networks. Netflix access will require authentication.
- What to watch: Media analysts think other online TV ventures will face more pressure to include Netflix (NFLX +3.6%) after Dish made its move. There could also be an impact on pay-TV operators (CHTR, CVC, TWC, CMCSA, DTV) if Netflix gets insides their boxes to cut into VOD revenue.
- Previously: Dish Network brings Netflix into the box
Nov. 13, 2014, 8:46 PM
- Sony's (NYSE:SNE) new online TV package will price at $60 to $70 per month, estimates Re/code.
- It's a level that is twice what Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) plans to charge for a slimmer package, although one that includes ESPN.
- Programming on the Sony streaming service will feature shows from CBS, Discovery Communications, Fox, NBC, Scripps Networks, and Viacom.
- The pitch from the Japanese media giant is that cord-cutters will be drawn in by the captivating way of accessing the content through gaming consoles. A cutting-edge discovery and recommendations service for users is also highlighted by execs.
- Regulatory watch: Potential rule changes from the FCC could level the playing field for the new streamers as they work out their content deals.
- What to watch: A fragmented pay-TV landscape could benefit content producers (DISCA, CBS, FOXA, DIS, LGF, TWX, AMCX) in the short-term as competition heats up, while creating a pricing headache for cable/satellite/telco players (CMCSA, CVC, CHTR, DISH, T, DTV, VZ, TWC).
- The Netflix factor: Many media analysts consider Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) an add-on for consumers - instead of an either/or decision with online TV.
Nov. 13, 2014, 3:12 AM
- Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) is pushing "full steam ahead" with its acquisition of Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC), despite the regulatory review process and looming regulation governing net neutrality.
- Comcast expected the deal to be completed “sometime in the first quarter and we still believe that today,” says CEO Brian Roberts.
- Roberts reiterated that Comcast opposes the proposals to classify broadband providers as utilities, which would endanger the company's plans to spend tens of billions of dollars to upgrade its networks.
Oct. 30, 2014, 7:46 AM
- Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) reports residential video revenue fell 4% Y/Y to $2.497B in Q3.
- Residential high-speed data revenue +10.9% to $1.62B.
- Programming and content costs +9.6% to $1.326B.
- Average monthly programming costs per residential video subscriber +11.1% to $38.96.
- High-speed data net additions +108K to 11.51M.
- Total customer relationships -18K Q/Q to 14.457M. Triple play customers -24K over the quarter.
Oct. 30, 2014, 6:04 AM| Comment!
Oct. 29, 2014, 1:22 PM
- A bid by Aereo to be defined as a cable provider gained support from the FCC with a new proposal out this week which was described in a blog post written by Chairman Tom Wheeler.
- The agency supports "open access" for consumers to high-speed broadband delivery and the right of over-the-top firms to offer programming owned by pay-TV providers and broadcasters.
- In essence, the FCC thinks the bundled pay-TV model should be broken so that consumers will not be forced to pay for channels they never watch.
- What to watch: Though Aero isn't likely to be the ultimate pay-TV disrupter without the deep pockets to license content, the position of the FCC opens the door for other Internet video players to emerge and chips away at the bundled channels model.
- Related stocks: DISH, DTV, CMCSA, CHTR, CVC, TWC, VZ, T, NFLX.
Oct. 24, 2014, 12:49 PM
- The current share prices of Time Warner Cable (TWC +2.1%) and Comcast (CMCSA +2.2%) indicate the market is rating the odds of an approved merger by the FCC and DOJ at 75%, according to commentary from media analyst Craig Moffett.
- Earlier this week, Dish Networks joined some pay-TV peers in slamming the deal in communications with regulators.
- Execs with Comcast exuded confidence on the merger during the firm's earnings conference call yesterday.
Oct. 24, 2014, 11:30 AM
- The number of global pay-TV subscribers will rise 19.6% to 1.1B in five years, according to a forecast from ABI Research.
- The research firm thinks global pay-TV revenue could top $323B by the end of the period.
- Related stocks: DISH, DTV, LBTYA, CHA, T, TWC, OTCPK:BSYBF, OTC:SKDTF, OTCPK:KBDHY, OTCQX:DTEGY, AMX,
Oct. 23, 2014, 10:23 AM
Oct. 22, 2014, 12:43 PM
- The FCC announces it will pause its review of the proposed Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) - Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) and DirecTV (NASDAQ:DTV) - AT&T (NYSE:T) mergers.
- The delay is due in part to bickering over who has the right to see confidential carriage fee agreements involving the companies.
- The agency says the informal 180-day time clock for the review has been halted.
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