- Comcast is the best bet right now. It is what everyone else wants to be.
- The trick is to vertically integrate, combining infrastructure with programming assets.
- Merger approval will be the starting gun on another round of consolidation, focused on content.
- Tencent and HBO formed an exclusive partnership in which Tencent will air HBO content.
- This is a major positive for Tencent due to exclusive content that makes it competitive against BIDU and YOKU.
- Subscription-based service is the long-term driver of Tencent video.
- The whisper number is $1.92, one cent ahead of the analysts' estimate.
- Time Warner Cable has a 69% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 9 of the 13 earnings reports for which we have data).
- The overall average post earnings price move is 'as expected' (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see weakness) when the company reports earnings.
- With broadband coverage in the United States being 70% at present, there is still room left for growth in this area.
- Time Warner Cable broadband division accounts for 40% of their stock value.
- Broadband revenues earned by Time Warner Cable have increased from being $3.7 billion in 2007 to almost $7 billion in 2013.
What You Don't Know About The Comcast-Time Warner Cable Merger
- Comcast acquires Time Warner Cable for $45.2 billion, but is it worth it?
- Net broadband subscribers additions slowing down.
- High debt, not enough cash in hand.
- Not focusing on the voice and video business.
Time Warner Cable: 3 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares During The Last 30 DaysMarkus Aarnio • Apr. 10, 2014
- Three insiders sold Time Warner Cable stock within one month.
- The stock was not purchased by any insiders in the month of intensive selling.
- All three of these insiders decreased their holdings by more than 10%.
- Overview of the details of the Comcast and Time Warner merger deal.
- Analysis and rational as to why the deal will go through contrary to popular belief.
- Risk/reward analysis of the type of trade that could best capitalize on the merger and how best to profit from it.
Time Warner's Triple Play Package: The Multi-Bidder Contest For Time Warner Cable
- One of Rangeley Capital's themes for 2014 is cable industry consolidation.
- The merger arbitrage spread in the CMCSA-TWC deal is wide.
- This wide spread is an attractive investment opportunity relative to its risks.
Risk Arbitrage On The Time Warner Cable And Comcast Deal
Reasons The FCC Should Block The Comcast/TW Merger
Time Warner Cable Bonds: Where Yield And Risk Intersect
Mar. 20, 2014, 9:14 AM
- Comcast (CMCSA) files a new document with the SEC outlining details of its proposed merger with Time Warner Cable (TWC).
- The document discloses the obligations of each company in order to complete the merger. The biggest obstacle by far will be appeasing regulators on the federal and state level.
- SEC Form S-4
Mar. 20, 2014, 7:43 AM
- The merger between Comcast (CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (TWC) faces a powerful headwind in the state of New York where moves are being proposed to strengthen the power of the Public Service Commission.
- New state rules backed by Governor Andrew Cuomo would give the PSC more oversight and pressure Comcast to prove its acquisition won't hurt consumers.
Mar. 19, 2014, 11:25 AM
- The pay-TV industry in the U.S. posted its first-ever decline in video subscribers during 2013, according to data compiled by SNL Kagan.
- The group (TWC, CVC, CHTR, DTV, DISH, VZ, T) lost 251K subscribers during the period.
- Even a late charge in Q4 by Comcast CMCSA couldn't turn the tide.
- What to watch: Online TV services which offer limited programming packages are expected to start cropping up this year to put additional pressure on pay-TV operators. Companies such as Dish Network plan to walk a tightrope of enticing cord-cutters and cord-nevers to sign on without cannibalizing current video subscriber counts.
Mar. 19, 2014, 9:37 AM
- Time Warner Cable (TWC) continues to upgrade existing stores and build modern outlets as it looks to shed its image with consumers.
- A DMV-like payment center is now known as a Time Warner Store.
- Employees are free to roam TWC stores to assist customers with the company's growing list of products and services.
Mar. 17, 2014, 9:40 AM
- The city of Los Angeles has sued Time Warner Cable (TWC) for nearly $10M in overdue franchise fees it says it's owed.
- City officials conducted a press conference to announce the lawsuit and rail against the company.
- Time Warner Cable has already drawn the wrath of some consumers in the region for hiking the fees for access to L.A. Dodgers baseball.
Mar. 10, 2014, 5:51 PM
- Sean "Diddy" Combs is offering ~$200M for the Fuse music network owned by Madison Square Garden (MSG), according to a Bloomberg report.
- Sources say Combs would convert Fuse into Revolt TV, the music-focused channel the hip-hop mogul launched in October.
- Fuse is available in ~74M homes through pay-TV systems including DirecTV (DTV), Dish Network (DISH) and Cablevision (CVC), while Revolt TV currently reaches ~22.8M homes and is carried by Comcast (CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (TWC).
Mar. 5, 2014, 2:53 PM
- Time Warner Cable (TWC +0.8%) CFO Artie Minson tips off at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media, and Telecom Conference that subscriber trends are improving in Q1 with total relationship adds up over 75K.
- The company lost 50K video subscribers in the first two months of the year, compared to the 217K lost between Q3 and Q4 of last year, but is seeing some positive momentum.
- His comments on bringing Netflix into the cable set top box aren't dismissive, but lean to the non-committal side.
- Morgan Stanley Technology, Media, and Telecom Conference webcast
Mar. 5, 2014, 10:35 AM
- Dish Network (DISH +1.4%) is considering charging $20-$30 a month for an over-the-top service that could rattle the pay-TV sector.
- A groundbreaking deal with Disney gives Dish a great starting point for content, but it's still working on landing deals with other programmers. The service might include 20 to 30 channels.
- The company believes younger consumers and cord-cutters could be enticed at the lower price points as traditional packages stay north of the $100/month level.
- Cable operators (CVC, TWC, CHTR) and DirecTV (DTV) could feel some pressure if the initiative launches.
Mar. 4, 2014, 9:29 AM| Comment!
Mar. 3, 2014, 11:02 AM
- Execs with Comcast (CMCSA -1.2%) area leaning heavily on the company's previous compliance with its deal to purchase NBCUniversal as they talk to regulators about the merger with Time Warner Cable (TWC -0.9%).
- In a blog post, Comcast highlighted in great detail how it exceeded targets set as a condition of the NBCUniversal purchase.
Feb. 28, 2014, 4:43 PM
- Comcast (CMCSA) reportedly is considering options for how to divest ~3M cable subscribers as part of a takeover of Time Warner Cable (TWC), including spinning them off in a new publicly-traded company.
- Regulators may push for the spin-out option because it would create a new competitor; such a new company would be the fourth-largest U.S. cable company by subscribers, trailing the merged CMCSA-TWC, Cox Communications and Charter Communications (CHTR).
- Comcast also may have received interest from several companies that want to buy the cable assets; Charter is interested, Liberty Media (LMCA) CEO Greg Maffei said today on a conference call, and Bright House Networks and Suddenlink are said to have expressed interest.
- Comcast hasn’t picked which cities would be divested or spun out, and sources say it won’t make a decision for at least three months as regulators examine the TWC deal.
Feb. 25, 2014, 7:24 AM
- The Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing on March 26 to probe the proposed merger between Comcast (CMCSA) and Tim Warner Cable (TWC).
- What to watch: The committee doesn't have any direct oversight on the merger, but will delve into issues of unfair practices in the pay-TV and broadband industry. Net neutrality and cable bundling could also be discussed at length.
Feb. 23, 2014, 8:53 PM
- In what could be a landmark pact for its dealings with other broadband providers, Netflix (NFLX) agrees to pay Comcast (CMCSA) to ensure its shows stream smoothly to the cable operators' customers.
- The debate: Who should bear the cost of upgrading Internet networks to carry the growing volume of online video - broadband providers (like Comcast) or content companies (like Netflix). While some big content names have begun paying the providers for faster and smoother access, Netflix - until now - has been a holdout, and today's agreement likely paves the way for similar deals with major broadband companies like Verizon (VZ), AT&T (T), and Time Warner (TWC).
- The agreement, of course, comes just days after Comcast agreed to buy TIme Warner in a deal which would make it by far the largest provider of broadband in the U.S., and it removes one potential regulatory issue hanging over the acquisition.
- Press release
- From Friday: Signs point to a Netflix/Comcast deal
Feb. 21, 2014, 10:06 AM
- The spread between Time Warner Cable's (TWC -0.9%) share price and Comcast's offer provides investors a nice entry point with an "asymmetric risk/return profile," reasons SA Pro author Chris Demuth.
- He notes both companies have CEOs that know how to negotiate a deal with regulators. The DOJ is viewed as more likely looking to sculpt the industry (think American-US Airways) than scuttle the merger.
- There's also the real possibility of new bids coming down the road.
- TWC currently trades at $140.79, about 12.8% below Comcast's offer price.
Feb. 19, 2014, 12:37 PM
- In addition to drafting net neutrality rules that would prohibit blocking Internet services or discriminating between them (widely expected), the FCC says it will explore eliminating state laws prohibiting municipalities and local government from building their own broadband networks.
- At the same time, the FCC has rejected calls from net neutrality advocates to classify broadband ISPs as common carriers, a move that would subject them to tougher regulations than basic neutrality rules would allow. Also, mobile services are set to remain exempt from neutrality rules.
- Thanks in large part to lobbying from cable and telco ISPs, 20 states have passed laws limiting public broadband investments. With U.S. broadband prices often far higher than those charged for comparable services overseas, and many cable and telco ISPs relying on high-margin broadband services to offset slumping TV and/or voice revenue, there's plenty at stake over the long-term.
- Major ISPs that could be affected: T, VZ, FTR, WIN, CTL, CMCSA, TWC, CHTR, CVC
- Previous: FCC to draft new net neutrality rules, won't appeal Verizon case
Feb. 19, 2014, 10:11 AM
- DirecTV (DTV -0.1%) thinks Time Warner Cable (TWC -0.7%) should offer its SportsNet LA regional sports network as an a la carte option to consumers - instead of forcing it to be part of a larger sports package.
- The comments from the satellite TV provider are an initial salvo in what could be an intense battle with Comcast (CMCSA -0.8%).
- If Comcast swallows up most of TWC it gains leverage with negotiating out a carriage deal on SportsNet LA. On this issue at least DirecTV is on the same side as consumers, noting that not everyone wants to pay for L.A. Dodgers baseball as part of their Pay-TV bill.
TWC vs. ETF Alternatives
Time Warner Cable Inc provides video, high-speed data and voice services in the U.S., with technologically advanced, well-clustered cable systems in New York State, the Carolinas, the Midwest, Southern California and Texas.
Other News & PR