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Thursday, April 25, 10:16 AM SocGen's Al Edwards doesn't disappoint his fans, believing the S&P is headed to 450 and gold to $10K. Most interesting is this chart on bond yields vs. forecasts. Forecasts in the deeper past essentially matched actual yields, yet for the last decade estimates have consistently called for "normalization," i.e. higher rates, but it's never happened. "Consensus has still not accepted that we remain locked in an Ice Age environment that will see U.S. (and U.K. and German) yields (TLT, TBT) converge to Japanese sub-1%." 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, April 24, 8:47 AM The long bond moves higher (yield declines) following the soft durable goods report. In addition to the weak March print, February's 5.6% gain was revised down to 4.3%, with nondefense ex-transport orders revised down to -4.7% from -2.7%. Higher previously, the 30-year yield is now off one basis point to 2.9%. TLT flat premarket. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Friday, April 19, 1:20 PM BlackRock fixed-income chief Rick Rieder tells the WSJ he was a big buyer of the long bond (TLT) in early April, believing the BOJ's massive easing and weak U.S. economic data would ensure a firm bid for the paper. Bonds, of course, have rallied strongly since then. Well played? In an April 8 interview with the FT, Rieder said he was worried about higher rates and favoring shorter durations. Check. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, April 17, 1:19 PM The 10-year Treasury yield touches a YTD low of 1.67% as the world's most hated asset confounds the bears again. How long before TBT is renamed the widow-maker trade a la JGBs? Trailing the S&P 500 in 2013 by 1500 basis points not long ago, TLT has narrowed the margin to about 650 bps. 2 Comments [Financials, U.S. Economy]
Monday, April 15, 6:28 PM China increased its holdings of U.S. Treasuries by $8.7B in February according to the Treasury Department. Meanwhile. Japan unloaded $6.8B of U.S. government debt, bringing its stash to $1.097T, a one year low. Analysts attributed some of the selling by the Japanese to positioning ahead of the BOJ's monumental easing campaign. China's holdings sat at a 15-month high going into March. 3 Comments
Monday, April 15, 7:45 AM The dive in commodities and selling in equities is generating a bid for Treasurys, the 10-year yield falling 3 bps to a YTD low of 1.69%. The long bond yield falls 2 bps to 2.89%. After a big selloff to start 2013, TLT - up 0.35% premarket - is in the green for the year. Treasury bears - for now - are foiled again: TBT -1% premarket, -4.1% YTD. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Friday, April 12, 8:45 AM The 10-year Treasury yield falls 5 basis points on the session to 1.74% following the weak retail sales print. TLT +1.1% premarket, with the last month's big rally in bond prices bringing it back to flat YTD. S&P 500 (SPY) futures dip to a session-low, -0.5%. The QQQs off 0.5% premarket. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Monday, April 8, 3:18 PM Calling QE a "large and dull hammer" distorting markets, BlackRock fixed income chief Rick Rieder - formerly bullish on long-dated Treasurys - is shortening the duration in his portfolio and calling on the Fed to wind it down. The economy is on "reasonably strong footing," says Rieder and unemployment faces "structural headwinds" only overcome with time - a view not at all shared by Bernanke. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy, Financials]
Friday, April 5, 9:16 AM The 10-year Treasury yield sinks to 1.68% - the lowest level since December - in wake of the jobs report. The so-called Great Rotation out of fixed income and into equities has reversed dramatically over the past 5 weeks. TLT +2.4%, SPY -1.2% premarket. Today's WSJ has a piece about bond-oriented hedge funds reshaping themselves into equity players. Can't make this stuff up. 8 Comments
Thursday, April 4, 1:28 PM The 10-year Treasury yield dips 5 bps to 1.76%, bringing its level back to where it started the year after rising as high as 2.07% less than a month ago. Stocks hang at record highs, dovish Fed officials are hinting about QE's end, and the Treasury market parties. Something doesn't fit. TLT +1%, TBT -2.1%. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, April 3, 10:23 AM Bonds bounce. The near-continuous calls for a bear market in Treasurys are dashed again for the time being, with the 10-year yield - after a quick surge higher to start 2013 - back to 1.84%, not far from where it started the year. Today's buying comes as ADP and ISM reports disappoint, and the banking sector (XLF -0.9%) gets a bit wobbly. TLT +0.6% today, -2.1% YTD. 7 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, March 26, 10:57 PM Another sentiment-related warning sign for stocks (previous) is heavy bearish opinion on Treasurys. CFTC data show small speculators net short at levels typically preceding an imminent bull move in bond prices, writes The Fat Pitch. Professionals? A BAML survey finds 53% of fund managers underweight bonds, the lowest weighting in Treasurys since May 2011 - a pretty fair time to get long. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, March 22, 11:00 AM Wilbur Ross has a message for bond investors: "If the 10-year Treasury reverts back just to its average yield from 2000-2010 [you will lose] 23%." Speaking on CNBC, he says investing in long-dated Treasurys will be a "huge risk" over the next two years. By contrast, Ross says stocks do not seem grossly expensive. 8 Comments
Friday, March 8, 9:50 AM "We like Treasurys here," says Bill Gross in the midst of big selloff in government paper. "0.91% on the 5-year produces nearly 2% return rolldown (assumes Fed stands pat until 2015)." TLT is the most popular Treasury ETF, but it's long-term paper. IEF, ITE, TYD, UST, TYO, IEI, and VGIT get you a little closer to the short-middle of the curve. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, March 6, 7:31 AM Buying Treasurys is like "walking in front of a steamroller to pick up $1," Lee Cooperman tells CNBC, putting himself (along with Omaha's Oracle) on the other side of the trade from Jeff Gundlach who said last night he sees good value in the long bond yielding 3.13%. For about the 4th year running, U.S. Treasurys take the title of world's most hated asset class. Other than Gundlach, it's hard to find someone to say a nice word. 8 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, March 4, 8:53 AM Direxion Shares sets splits - regular or reverse, as necessary - on 16 triple-leveraged ETFs to put each fund's price at "a level more attractive to investors following several months of rallying equities market(s)." Those affected: ERY, YANG, EDZ, TECS, NUGT, FAZ, TZA, MIDZ, FAS, RETL, EDC, SPXL, DRN, LBJ, TYD, TNA. Comment!

TYD Direxion Daily 10-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF

TYD

Direxion Daily 10-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF