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Friday, September 14, 2012, 7:21 AM Treasurys continue to get punished by the Fed, the 10-year note yield up 11 basis points to 1.83%. So much for Operation Twist - of which the stated goal is to lower long-term rates. Those who believe in the omniscience of the Fed will point to rising long-term rates as proving the QE announcement is already working. The FOMC should have done this months ago! 7 Comments [Global & FX]
Thursday, September 13, 2012, 10:45 AM If the Fed announces a new QE program this afternoon, one could do worse than selling Treasurys. Bond yields have rallied sharply (very cool graphic here) after the past two QE efforts were launched. It was only after the Fed closed shop on its purchases that yields resumed sliding. It's simple, says Jeff Gundlach: QE is stimulative, therefore one should expect yields to rise while it is ongoing. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, September 11, 2012, 5:04 PM More Gundlach: Another remarkable slide shows the 30-year bond yield in 1984 and in 2012. The long bond hit 14% in 1984 with inflation at 4% and falling - a real yield of 1000 basis points. Today, with inflation at 2.5%, the long bond yields just 2.85%. "The duration of the DoubleLine Total Return Fund is the shortest it's ever been." 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, September 11, 2012, 10:32 AM Buy Italian 3-year notes and sell U.S. 30-year Treasurys, suggests Bill Gross. With both yielding about 2.85%, it's about credit risk vs. duration risk. "Classic face-off. ECB vs. Fed. Winner? Italy." Comment! [U.S. Economy, Global & FX]
Monday, September 10, 2012, 7:38 AM The odds of additional Fed stimulus have risen to 99%, according to indicators tracked by Citigroup. Fingers in the wind, bond strategists have reduced their end-of-year 10-year Treasury yield forecast to 1.65% from 1.9% a month ago, perhaps forgetting past bouts of QE have sent yields higher, not lower. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, September 6, 2012, 10:27 AM An outstanding chart (via InterestArb) shows the gaping chasm that's opened up between the U.S. employment picture (not so terrible) and Treasury yields. Priced as if nothing will ever go right in the economy again, Treasury prices may one day look down to see they're far out past the cliff's edge. Things are going a bit right this morning, and the long bond yield is up 5 bps to 2.76%. TLT -1.1%. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, August 30, 2012, 10:02 AM Taking the opposite view from Bill Gross, Jeff Gundlach doesn't expect another round of QE from the Fed. While not doubting the Fed's ability to take the 10-year Treasury yield as low at it wants, he's sticking to his view the 1.39% hit in July will remain a bottom. 9 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, August 27, 2012, 9:30 AM Mom-and-pop mortgage holders aren't the only ones who like to take advantage of low rates by refinancing. The month isn't over yet, but corporations have issued about $120B in debt, the busiest August since Dealogic began compiling records in 1995. The question is whether corporate treasurers (often good at timing) are signalling a bottom in interest rates. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, August 24, 2012, 12:31 PM "Stocks and other (risk) markets have gotten ahead of themselves," says portfolio manager Joe Balestrino, taking advantage of August's swoon in Treasury prices (already reversing) to buy. "(Markets are) saying the fiscal cliff will not happen and that it looks like 4% growth." The move, says another manager, is "based on bailouts," and can turn on a dime. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, August 22, 2012, 2:53 PM Treasurys extend a big 2-day rally following the FOMC minutes, the 10-year yield off 8 basis points to 1.71% (after nearing 1.9% yesterday). If the Fed is truly going to launch QE3, bond bulls (and bears) should take note because past QE episodes have sent Treasury prices lower. 9 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, August 21, 2012, 2:59 PM Something for bond bears to consider: It took just the slightest of wobbles in stocks (DJIA on a 100 point reversal today) to send buyers flying into Treasurys. The long bond has rallied more than a full point since just before noon, bringing the yield back to flat on the day at 2.91%. TBT -0.3%. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, August 20, 2012, 3:11 PM The Fed's got it right. Data going back to 1962 shows the 10-year Treasury yield is far more correlated with core CPI than it is with the headline rate, notes Matt Busigin. Since 1986, the Treasury/core rate correlation is even higher, getting pretty close to 1. The data also gives truth to the argument that energy and food price shocks (which affect the headline) are deflationary. 7 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, August 15, 2012, 8:46 AM Treasurys continue to sell off, the yield on the 10-year of 1.78% is the highest since May, and up from 1.39% in 3 weeks. Prices are far from cheap though. A buyer today would lose 6.78% of his/her principal - equal to more than 3 years of coupons - with an increase in yields of just another 50 basis points (h/t tradefast). TLT -5.4% since July 24. 17 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, August 14, 2012, 9:40 AM Long-term Treasury yields rise to about their highest levels of the summer following speedy retail sales and PPI reports. Can slowing growth and a world beset by problems of "mega proportions" be any more baked in, asks Scott Grannis. Shorting Treasurys is a great way to play the "What if something goes right" trade. Comment! [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]
Tuesday, August 14, 2012, 8:50 AM Below-trend economic growth and below-trend inflation is "broadly acknowledged as fact," writes tradefast upon seeing the results of BAML's global fund manager survey showing 75% of respondents in agreement on such. Just 5% see above-trend growth. Comment! [Quick Ideas]
Monday, August 13, 2012, 11:27 AM Long-term Treasury prices - off to a rough start this month - have history on their side as they try to mount a comback, TLT is higher in August 10 of 10 times since the ETF's inception. The yield on the 10-year - which hit 1.73 last week - has retreated to 1.62%. TLT -2.7% thus far in August. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]

TYD Direxion Daily 10-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF

TYD

Direxion Daily 10-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF