Dec. 23, 2014, 10:06 AM
- The type of hedging strategies used by airliners will play a big part in profitability in the sector after the sharp drop in jet fuel prices.
- Delta Airlines (NYSE:DAL) estimates it keeps about 65% of the drop in fuel costs, but will owe $800M to counterparties (the other side of the hedge) if oil is 20% lower on December 31, 2015 from where it stood on October 1, 2014. By Delta's estimation, a penny drop in oil prices is a net $40M to the good side.
- Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) forecasts it will reap $0.80 for every $1 drop in oil prices, but disclosed a $615M liability to creditors if crude oil prices stay below 25% from the level of September 30.
- American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) will realize the full impact from the drop in fuel costs on its bottom line due to the decision by the company not to hedge at all.
- Other airliners could also have some hedging exposure, although details are light on the strategies employed in the sector.
- What to watch: Q1 reports and conference calls in the sector could be key in filling in some of the blanks. Related stocks: UAL, JBLU, ALK, HA, SAVE, ALGT, RJET, VA.
Dec. 23, 2014, 8:26 AM
- U.S. airliners as a group showed a 2.6% gain to 16.40 (cents) in fares earned per revenue passenger mile in November, according to data from Airlines for America.
- A 4.0% Y/Y increase for the metric on domestic routes offset a 1.4% decline in international flights.
- The YTD mark is up 2.3% to 16.53.
- Related stocks: ALK, AAL, DAL, JBLU, LUV, UAL.
Dec. 15, 2014, 3:14 PM
- Senator Charles Schumer calls on the DOT to probe the airline industry for the high level of airfares despite the drop in jet fuel costs and booming airliner profits.
- By most tabulations, airfares have held steady over the last few weeks.
- Previously: IATA: Profits to rise 26% for airliners in 2015 (Dec. 10 2014)
- U.S. carriers: LUV, UAL, DAL, AAL, JBLU, ALK, HA, SAVE, ALGT, RJET, VA.
Dec. 15, 2014, 11:18 AM
Dec. 10, 2014, 9:49 AM
- Airline stocks rip a fresh set of gains after oil prices weaken again and the IATA issues a rosy forecast on 2015 profit for the sector.
- There has also been a wave of analyst upgrades on airliners which has boosted sentiment.
- Leading gainers: Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) +3.1%, United Continental (NYSE:UAL) +3.1%, Spirit Airlines (NASDAQ:SAVE) +2.7%, American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) +2.6%, China Eastern Air (NYSE:CEA) +2.4%, Republic Airways (NASDAQ:RJET) +2.4%, Virgin America (NASDAQ:VA) +2.0%, China Southern Airlines (NYSE:ZNH) +1.9%.
Dec. 10, 2014, 8:36 AM
- IATA forecasts airline profits will rise 10.6% Y/Y to $19.9B this year.
- The outlook from the research firm for 2015 is for 25.6% jump in profit to $25B.
- Consumers can expect to see a 5.1% decline in airfares next year, while cargo shippers should pay 5.8% less.
- On a per-passenger basis, IATA thinks the the airline industry will show a net profit of $7.08 in 2015 vs. $6.02 in 2014 and $3.38 in 2013.
- The profit gains are tied to lower oil prices and improved GDP numbers across key sections of the globe.
- Airline stocks: AAL, UAL, DAL, RYAAY, OTCPK:CPCAY, OTCPK:SINGY, CEA, ZNH, CPA, GOL, LFL, OTCPK:DLAKF, AIDIF, OTCPK:QUBSF, JBLU,ALK, HA, OTCPK:AIRYY, OTCPK:MLYAF, OTCQX:AFLYY, VLRS, LUV, RJET, SAVE, ALGT, VA.
Dec. 8, 2014, 4:52 PM
- United's (NYSE:UAL) consolidated traffic fell 0.3% Y/Y in November to 15.3B RPMs. A 3.7% drop in domestic traffic, and a 0.9% drop in regional traffic, offset a 3.6% international increase.
- Consolidated capacity fell 0.4% to 19.1B available seat miles. Domestic -3.8%, international +3.3%, regional -0.8%.
- Consolidated load factor rose 10 bps to 79.9%. Domestic load factor rose 20 bps to 82.3%, international rose 30 bps to 77.1%, and regional fell 10 bps to 81.1%.
- UAL -0.4% AH.
Dec. 8, 2014, 7:32 AM| Dec. 8, 2014, 7:32 AM | 7 Comments
Dec. 4, 2014, 10:02 AM
- Another big day for airline stocks is setting up with oil prices losing their footing again.
- A positive note from JPMorgan on sector capacity trends is also helping to boost sentiment.
- Gainers: Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) +2.8%, American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) +3.2%, Hawaiian Holdings (NASDAQ:HA) +6.5%, United Continental (NYSE:UAL) +5.4%, Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK) +2.9%, JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) +2.9%, Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) +2.2%, Spirit Airlines (NASDAQ:SAVE) +1.7%, Republix Airways (NASDAQ:RJET) +0.8%, Virgin America (NASDAQ:VA) +1.6%.
Nov. 29, 2014, 10:29 AM
- Analysts with Gasbuddy.com predict some gas stations in the U.S. will offer $2 per gallon gas by Christmas.
- The last time the average price of gas in the U.S. was below $2 was in March of 2009.
- Forecasts from economists vary widely on the overall gas benefit to consumers for Q4. The high end from the group is an outlook of $300 per household, while the low end is closer to $100.
- Most analysts see an immediate lift for retail chains with large distribution channels. Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Target (NYSE:TGT), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Dollar General (NYSE:DG), Family Dollar (NYSE:FDO), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Big Lots (NYSE:BIG), and Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE) come to mind.
- Airline stocks (JBLU, DAL, UAL, LUV, AAL, RJET, ALK, HA, ALGT, VA) have already ripped strong gains off the OPEC news, although some see even more long-term upside as forward fuel hedges get reworked.
- A sustained period of low gas prices should lift restaurant stocks (CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DNKN, DPZ, DRI, EAT, JACK, MCD, PNRA, RRGB, RT, SBUX, SONC, WEN, BWLD, THI, BDL, NATH, LUB, BKW, CHUY, BLMN, PZZA, TXRH, DENN, KKD, BBRG, DFRG, BOBE, RUTH, IRG, DIN) say some analysts.
- The gaming sector is (CZR, PNK, BYD, ISLE, CNTY, MCRI, MGM, NYNY) also an off-the-radar pick to bounce.
Nov. 28, 2014, 12:45 PM
Nov. 28, 2014, 9:17 AM
Nov. 28, 2014, 8:13 AM
- The OPEC decision to hold oil production levels steady has put a charge into airline stocks in early trading off the prospect for sustained lower jet fuel costs.
- Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) is up 4.1% premarket and United Continental (NYSE:UAL) has already rallied 3.5%. The rest of the group is expected to fall suit.
- Airline stocks on watch: JBLU, AAL, LUV, ALGT, SAVE, HA, ALK, SKYW, VA.
Nov. 26, 2014, 10:25 AM
- As of 10 a.m. ET this morning, 367 flights into, out of or within the U.S. reportedly had been canceled ahead of a major storm expected to bring rain and snow from Washington to Boston.
- Most of the canceled flights were at NYC-area airports and involved regional carriers operating express flights for major airlines, such as JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU), which is based in New York, and the Delta Shuttle (NYSE:DAL) between Boston and LaGuardia airport.
- In anticipation of problems, United Continental (NYSE:UAL), American (NASDAQ:AAL) and DAL had waived their customary fees for flight changes for travel today through about two dozen northeastern airports.
Nov. 20, 2014, 9:12 AM
- Air fares rose 2.2% M/M in October, according to the underlying data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The development arrives just as jet fuel prices are moderating on forward contracts for carriers (LUV, JBLU, HA, ALK, ALGT, SAVE, AAL, DAL, UAL, RJET).
- Breakfast cereal prices rose 1.5% M/M in October. Though the gain could be due to a soft promotions-influenced comp from a year ago, sellers (GIS, K, POST) won't mind the relief.
- Another surprise might be the +4.3% average price rise in the women's dresses category. Ann (NYSE:ANN), L Brands (NYSE:LB), Cache (NASDAQ:CACH), Cato (NYSE:CATO), Chico's FAS (NYSE:CHS), and Ascena Retail (NASDAQ:ASNA) could be part of that improvement.
- BLS CPI table
Nov. 19, 2014, 7:56 AM
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