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Wed, Mar. 12, 6:56 PM
- While steep drops in copper, iron ore and coking coal prices have spooked investors, KGHM chief Derek White says there's no need for mining executives to panic - at least not yet.
- There's no real threat to copper mining operations at a long-term copper price ~$3/lb., White says, but that could change if the price drops below $2.50 for a prolonged period.
- Iron ore prices have performed better than expected in recent years, and this week’s drop brings them closer to many forecasts; analysts believe most iron ore projects are fine at a long-term price above $100/metric ton.
- Coking coal's current $110/metric ton is still not low enough to disrupt most operations, with some exceptions; TD Securities expects Teck Resources (TCK) to defer its Quintette project in British Columbia until the market recovers.
- ETFs: XME, COPX, CU, JUNR, PICK, JJC, DBB, CPER, RJZ, BOM, BOS, JJM, BDD, CUPM, RGRI, UBM, BDG, USMI, HEVY
Dec. 27, 2013, 4:29 AM
- The WSJ shines a light onto "shadow warehouses," a hidden system of facilities that store tens of millions of tons of aluminum, copper, nickel and zinc across the globe for banks, hedge funds and commodity merchants.
- The warehouses operate outside the London Metal Exchange's system, are unregulated, and don't provide details of their holdings. As a result, it's unclear how much metal is held in the shadow system. This lack of visibility could cause major price swings.
- The WSJ article follows allegations that warehousing companies have artificially boosted the price of metals, particularly aluminum.
- Companies that operate metals warehouses include Goldman Sachs (GS), Glencore Xstrata (GLCNF) and JPMorgan (JPM), although the latter is looking to sell its commodities unit.
- Relevant tickers include VALE, AA, AWC, KALU, MNSF, CENX, NOR, BHP, RIO, ACH.
- ETFs: DBC, JJC, DBB, DJP, GSG, RJI, GCC, USCI, CFD, JJN, JJT, BOM, RGRC, CPER, CTF, RJZ, GSC, LSC, GSP, JJU, DEE, BDD, BOS, JJM, DYY, DDP, DJCI, LD, CMD, BCM, CUPM, UCI, RGRI, UCD, UBM, FOIL, BDG, LEDD, CMDT, SBV, USMI, DPU, NINI, FTGC, CSCB, CSCR, HEVY
Sep. 12, 2013, 7:48 AM
- The gathering pace of infrastructure projects and consumers' need to restock will fuel a rebound in China's commodity usage through the end of the year, says Goldman. "People are getting more positive, but they’re not super bullish, not yet,” said Goldman's Julian Zhu. “You’re going to see further upside. If you look at the early indicators in September; it seems like the overall economic activity is picking up."
- Steel prices in particular are expected to be stronger, says Zhu. Re-bar futures in Shanghai closed at $3,713 per metric ton last night, continuing a 3-month run of higher prices, the longest streak since 2010/11.
- Broad commodity ETFs: DJP, GSP, LSC, RJI, GSC, GCC, GSG, DBC, DPU, DJCI, UCI, USCI, DYY, UCD, DEE, CMD, DDP, RGRC, CTF, CFD CSCR, CSCB.
- Broad base metal ETFs: JJM, RJZ, BDG, DBB, UBM, BDD, BOM, BOS, USMI, RGRI.
- Steel: SLX.
Dec. 26, 2012, 6:48 PMCan artificial scarcity continue propping up the aluminum market in the face of a production glut? Barclays predicts stockpiles will grow to 8.67M metric tons by the end of 2013. But with about half of all inventories possibly tied up in financing deals, many buyers are having trouble procuring supply, and analysts polled by Bloomberg expect prices to rise 14% next year. The EC recently said it's discussing the issue of premiums caused by financing deals. | Comment!
Dec. 4, 2011, 4:56 AM
Sep. 23, 2011, 1:12 PM
Sep. 20, 2010, 2:23 PMCopper will be in short supply next year, so Goldman Sachs raises its rating on Freeport McMoRan (FCX +2.1%) to Buy, with a target price of $94, up from $79. Steel prices, however, will remain “range bound,” but Steel Dynamics (STLD -0.2%) is the “best positioned” U.S. steel maker. Ratings for U.S. Steel (X -1.6%) and Nucor (NUE -0.3%) are cut with lower estimates. | 1 Comment
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