Seeking Alpha
 

ProShares Ultra MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (UBR)

- NYSEARCA
  • Jun. 30, 2014, 10:46 AM
    • The central bank's weekly survey of 100 economists finds them cutting their GDP growth estimate this year to 1.1% from 1.16%, and the 2015 outlook to 1.5% from 1.6%. It's the fifth straight reduction in 2014 prospects and the sixth straight for 2015.
    • At the same time, inflation forecasts remain locked in at 6.46% this year and 6.1% in 2015.
    • The benchmark Selic interest rate is still expected to be 11% at the end of this year and 12% at the end of 2015 (it's 11% currently).
    • One of the globe's hot performers from February through mid-June (as markets anticipated the end of central bank rate hikes), the Bovespa has taken a little bit of a breather since the World Cup got underway. EWZ -0.6% in morning action.
    • ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRZU, BRAZ, BZQ, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    | Comment!
  • Jun. 6, 2014, 10:53 AM
    • The Bovespa has its tail in the air to the tune of 2.6% after another dip in support for President Dilma Rousseff to 34% from 37%.
    • Opposition candidates, however, also saw their support drop, bringing the number of voters without a preferred candidate to its highest pre-election percentage in 25 years. Still, the opposition combined is now polling higher than the president
    • EWZ +3.4%, and the banks: ITUB +4.4%, BSBR +1.9%, BBD +4.5%
    • ETFs: EWZ, BRXX, BRAQ, BRZU, BZQ, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    | 15 Comments
  • Jun. 2, 2014, 9:52 AM
    • May's 48.8 slides from 49.3 in April, and marks the 2nd consecutive month in contraction territory for the Manufacturing PMI.
    • Investment goods was the worst-performing category, and the drop in production was the largest decline in more than two-and-a-half years . "Anecdotal evidence highlighted an increasingly difficult economic climate."
    • The Bovespa is up 1% in early action, with buyers perhaps cheered by more news arguing for easier monetary policy.
    • ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRZU, BRAZ, BZQ, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    | Comment!
  • May. 28, 2014, 8:43 AM
    • Buy Brazil, says Goldman, predicting that country's soccer team will win the World Cup and noting the victorious country's stock market historically outperforms global equities by 3.5% in the first month after the win.
    • "Enjoy the gains while they last," though, says Goldman's Peter Oppenheimer, noting the outperformance quickly fades.
    • The Bovespa has fallen 7% Y/Y, though it's been one of the stronger equity markets globally over the past two-three months. The matches begin on June 12.
    • ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRZU, BRAZ, BZQ, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    | 4 Comments
  • May. 12, 2014, 2:32 PM
    • Brazil's on the move higher again, up 1.6% on the session, helped by release of a central bank survey showing economists cutting their inflation forecast 11 basis points to 6.39% while hiking their GDP growth estimates six bps to an average 1.69%. The central bank has hiked rates for nine straight meetings, bringing the benchmark Selic rate to 11%, and the hope is May will see a pause in the cycle.
    • Also at work in the rally are hopes President Rousseff may not gain reelection in the fall, but JPMorgan isn't so sure. "We believe May will show stability in the polls ... the President will have her own TV appearances, which together with the announcements on higher social spending on Labor Day, should stabilize her ratings, while the opposition will have limited room to make the news cycle."
    • EWZ is up about 25% since mid-March.
    • Morgan Stanley continues to fight the tape, remaining underweight the country amid what it expects will be slowing growth, continued upward pressure on rates, and more weakness in the real. The team notes it's not seeing the quick narrowing in the current account deficit associated with big rallies in Indonesia and India.
    • ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRZU, BRAZ, BZQ, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    | 1 Comment
  • May. 5, 2014, 12:26 PM
    • Leading off the 2014 Ira Sohn conference, Fortress Investment Group's (FIG -0.8%) Mike Novogratz says it's a pretty challenging macro environment without many great themes. One he does like though, is Brazil, where - after four tough years - business confidence is low, consumers are levered up, the government is fiscally stretched, and inflation is high ... "It's so bad, it's good."
    • One caveat would be the fall re-election of Dilma Rousseff, he says, and the country is in for a "long, long dark period" if she pulls it off (her numbers though, seem to be sliding on a near-daily basis).
    • Perhaps anticipating a Rousseff defeat, not to mention the end of a long rate-hike cycle, the Bovespa has been maybe the strongest reasonably-sized market on the planet of late, up almost 20% since mid-March.
    • ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRAZ, BRZU, BZQ, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    | Comment!
  • May. 2, 2014, 12:35 PM
    • The country's manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory in April - 49.3 from 50.6 previously, but what's really got the bulls excited is a sharp decline in both input and output prices.
    • With Brazil's central already indicating it's nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, the news - especially if confirmed by CPI data coming next Friday - could be the final straw pushing the bank to remain on hold at the end of this month.
    • Also giving energy to the bulls is the continued slide in poll numbers for President Dilma Rousseff, who faces an October election. She's down to 37% from 43.7% in February.
    • The Bovespa is ahead another 1.7% today. EWZ +2.4%
    • ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRAZ, BRZU, BZQ, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    | Comment!
  • Apr. 24, 2014, 11:28 AM
    • The real rises to its strongest level vs. the dollar since October amid a published report that Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff may replace finance minister Guido Mantega with central bank chief Alexandre Tombini.
    • First up for Rousseff though, will be winning reelection in October.
    • Tombini has led a series of rate hikes over the past year, but recently signaled a pause could soon be coming. Looking ahead to easier monetary policy, Brazil's previously beaten down stock market has been one of the globe's strongest performers over the past couple of months.
    • ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRAZ, BRZU, BZQ, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    | Comment!
  • Apr. 4, 2014, 12:50 PM
    • With the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 each off 2% and the S&P 500 down 0.6%, what's working today? Emerging markets (EEM +0.7%), particularly Latin America (ILF +2.2%), particularly Brazil, where the weight of a year-long rate hike cycle looks to be coming to a close just as monetary tightening gets underway in the States.
    • Up 2.6% today, the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ) is ahead more than 20% since the start of February.
    • Brazil's banks: Banco Bradesco (BBD +2.8%), Banco Santander Brasil (BSBR +2.9%), Itau Unibanco (ITUB +2%).
    • Brazil ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRAZ, BZQ, BRZU, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    • LatAm ETFs: AND, ILF, LBJ, GML, LATM, EEML, FLN
    | 8 Comments
  • Apr. 2, 2014, 10:32 PM
    • Brazil's central bank - as expected - boosts the benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points to 11%, but hints an end to the rate hike cycle is nearing. "There will probably be another increase at the next meeting, if there's no surprise, but the continuity of the cycle beyond that is unlikely," say economists at Banco Fator.
    • The central bank began its rate hike cycle about one year ago amid persistently high inflation, and with the Selic then at 7.25%. Unsurprisingly amid the tighter policy, the Brazilian stock market has been one of the poorer performers among major markets during this time.  Perhaps anticipating the end of rate boosts, the Bovespa logged sharp gains over the past few weeks. The iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ) is up more than 20% since early February.
    • ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRAZ, BZQ, BRZU, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    | Comment!
  • Mar. 27, 2014, 2:44 PM
    • A sharp boost in the central bank's inflation forecast - suggesting the rate hike cycle will continue - isn't enough to halt the big rally in Brazilian stocks, with the Bovespa's 3.2% gain today putting the index higher by nearly 15% over the last two weeks.
    • The central bank now sees inflation of 6.1% this year, 50 basis points higher than its previous estimate. The 2015 inflation forecast is lifted to 5.5% from 5.4%. Both guesses are well above the 4.5% inflation target. The benchmark Selic rate has been raised 350 bps since April to 10.75%, and watchers are calling for another 25-50 bps next week and maybe another boost in May.
    • EWZ +4.4%
    • ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRAZ, BZQ, BRZU, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    | Comment!
  • Mar. 27, 2014, 2:39 PM
    | Comment!
  • Mar. 24, 2014, 6:23 PM
    • Standard & Poor's cuts Brazil's sovereign debt rating to BBB-, the agency's lowest investment-grade rating, citing a combination of fiscal slippage, the prospect that fiscal execution will remain weak amid subdued growth in the coming years, a constrained ability to adjust policy ahead of the October presidential elections, and some weakening in Brazil's external accounts.
    • S&P changes its outlook to stable from negative, meaning further downgrades are unlikely for now.
    • The downgrade was expected, but the timing prior to the October election, in which Pres. Rousseff will seek re-election, may pose a headache for her government.
    • Brazil ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRAZ, BZQ, BRZU, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    | Comment!
  • Mar. 10, 2014, 10:45 AM
    • The 8.3% dive in the price of iron ore to $104.70 per ton is the 2nd largest one-day decline on record, and came following weekend data showing an 18.1% Y/Y slump in Chinese exports in February (a gain of 7.5% was expected). While miners like BHP and RIO remain optimistic about supply/demand dynamics (though dour on price prospects), Goldman - picking one analyst team - sees the market moving into surplus in H2 and prices falling below $100 per ton.
    • The Shanghai Composite fell 2.9% overnight and Brazil's Bovespa is down 2% in the early-going. Australia (EWAdeclined 0.9% and the aussie (FXA) is off 0.6% to $0.9017.
    • The steelmaking ingredient is off 22% YTD and at its lowest price since October 2012.
    • In the meantime, the rumors are flying, including speculation a mill in China's Shanxi province defaulted on Friday and shut five to six furnaces. There's also chatter about banks looking to call in 20% of loans to private steel companies.
    • EWZ -2.1%, VALE -2.8%.
    • Brazil ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRAZ, BZQ, BRZU, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    • Base metal mining ETFs: XME, JUNR, PICK
    | 1 Comment
  • Feb. 26, 2014, 7:08 PM
    • Brazil's central bank has upped its benchmark interest rate by another 25 bps to 10.75%.
    • 325 bps worth of rate hikes were carried out in 2013 in an effort to keep a lid on inflation. Brazil's 2013 inflation rate was 5.9%, handily exceeding a 4.5% target.
    • Better-than-expected January unemployment data raised expectations another rate hike would happen.
    • Brazil ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BZQ, BRAZ, BRZU, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    | 2 Comments
  • Feb. 20, 2014, 8:34 AM
    • The unadjusted jobless rate in January rose to 4.8% from 4.3% in December, but was below forecasts for 5.1%. The seasonally adjusted rate was flat month-over-month.
    • The good economic news might be bad news for those hoping for an end to the rate hike cycle. "It's a tough message for the central bank," says economist Carlos Kawall. While the economy doesn’t seem to be going onto a very strong path, unemployment is still very low, and wages are still moving up. So it creates a real dilemma for the bank.”
    • Inflation accelerated to 5.91% in 2013 vs. the 4.5% target, and policymakers responded by hiking the benchmark Selic 325 basis points to 10.5%.
    • EWZ -0.7% premarket
    • Related ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BZQ, BRAZ, BRZU, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
    | Comment!
Visit Seeking Alpha's
UBR vs. ETF Alternatives
UBR Description
ProShares Ultra MSCI Brazil Capped seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times (2x) the daily performance of the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index®.
See more details on sponsor's website
Country: Brazil
ETF Hub
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio: Visit Seeking Alpha's ETF Hub