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Tuesday, June 18, 11:21 AM Brazil (EWZ, BRF) has to be nearing a bottom. After a couple of years of struggles for both the economy and the Bovespa, the eulogies are beginning to be written for the planet's next great country, lately been beset by waves of protests and evaporating support for President Rousseff. "The golden days are over, the feel-good factor is lost," says an economics professor. "It was a short-lived dream," says a struggling electrician.
3 Comments [Global & FX]
Monday, June 17, 10:27 AM Brazil is facing a ratings downgrade in early 2014, says Barclays, thanks to a combination of weak growth and fiscal deterioration. The central bank's hawkish rhetoric is nice, but only a major change in fiscal policy will prevent the downgrade and "rekindle positive investor sentiment." As a result, the real (BZF) should remain under pressure. Stocks (EWZ, BRF) continue to underperform. They failed to get a boost from easy monetary policy in 2012 and now must deal with a rate hike cycle. Comment! [Global & FX]
Monday, June 3, 9:17 AM Brazil's manufacturing growth remains about flat, the May PMI coming in at 50.4 vs. 50.8 previously. It's the weakest read in 7 months. "Anecdotal evidence pointed to muted demand from European clients." The MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ) is off 9% YTD, but up 1% in the premarket. Comment! [Global & FX]
Thursday, May 30, 7:15 AM Brazil's central bank hiked rates overnight by an unexpectedly large 50 bps, the Selic now residing at 8%. The move comes even as growth came in at a meager 1.95% in Q1. Inflation, however, is accelerating and recently breached the upper band of the bank's 2.5%-6.5% target. The country is the only member of the G-20 currently in rate-hike mode. EWZ -6.3% YTD. Comment! [Global & FX]
Wednesday, May 1, 10:52 AM Investors wanting leveraged bearish exposure to Brazil (EWZ) and South Korea (EWY) get two new offerings today as Direxion launches the Daily Brazil Bear 3x ETF (BRZS) and the Daily South Korea Bear 3x ETF (KORZ). The bull versions (BRZU, KORU) of these funds launched about a month ago. Comment! [Global & FX]
Wednesday, April 17, 8:13 PM Responding to percolating inflation even amid lame economic growth, Brazil's central bank hikes its benchmark rate for the first time in nearly 2 years, lifting the Selic 25 bps to 7.5%. The poor Bovespa - the bank's recently-completed rate-cutting cycle failed to do much for Brazilian stocks, and now it's back to tightening again. EWZ -31.9% over the last 2 years. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Wednesday, April 10, 4:42 PM Direxion launches two triple-leveraged single-country ETFs today - Daily Brazil Bull 3X Shares (BRZU) and Daily South Korea Bull 3X Shares (KORU). Both the funds have an expense ratio of 0.95%, much higher than counterparts FKO and FBZ (0.80%) and EWY and EWZ (0.60%), but matching UBR (0.95%). The timing of the launch is interesting as both countries have struggled to perform recently, with iShares' Brazil fund EWZ -13.4% (last 12 months) and -2.4% (YTD). EWY (South Korea) is -6.2% (last 12 months) and -12.3% (YTD). Comment!
Monday, April 1, 9:10 AM Brazil's PMI slows to 51.8 in March from 52.5 previously, but remains in expansion territory for the 6th consecutive month. The average of 52.5 for Q1 is higher than the 51.2 pace for 2012 Q4. Price pressures percolate with input prices rising at their fastest pace in almost 2 years. EWZ -0.25% premarket. Comment! [Global & FX]
Wednesday, March 27, 11:29 AM Brazil puts in a sharp reversal after a gauge of inflation slows and President Rousseff - speaking in South Africa - says anti-inflation policies are outdated. The two combine to give hope the central bank will refrain from what was thought to be an imminent hike in rates. EWZ +0.6%. The real (BZF) declines for a 7th straight day. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Monday, March 11, 9:40 AM The Brazil ETF (EWZ) weakens 0.8% out of the gate after the central bank moves to weaken the real by setting an auction of up to 30K reverse FX swap contracts. The action may ultimately juice stocks, but the EWZ is not currency hedged. Real ETF: BZF -0.5%. Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, February 12, 3:44 PM Markets make opinons, they say, and Brazil's (EWZ) poor performance has managers pulling funds and talking about long-term troubles for the next great country. Money is instead chasing performance in Mexico (EWW), Peru (EPU), and Chile (ECH). A 10% move up in the Bovespa and it's our guess the prospects for Brazil among the adviser crowd will have improved. Comment! [Global & FX]
Friday, February 1, 7:44 AM Brazil's January PMI rises to 53.2 from 51.1 in December, and consensus 51.0. It's a 23-month high for the gauge and was led by strong rises in New Orders and Production. HSBC: "Despite these strong numbers, the growth outlook for Brazil remains vulnerable to the fallout from uncertainty regarding electricity supply." Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, January 8, 10:10 AM Struggling to meet its budget targets amid disappointing tax revenue, Brazil changes the rules, calling about $20B of spending, "investments," and excluding it from the budget goal. EWZ - dominated by Petrobas, Vale, and the big banks - fell nearly 5% last year even as the central bank furiously cut rates. Small caps (BRF) fared better, up more than 15%. 2 Comments [Global & FX]
Wednesday, January 2, 9:15 AM Brazil's December PMI slips to 51.1 from 52.2 previously. The Employment index remained below 50 for the 9th consecutive month, and Backlogs continue to contract as well, as companies have no problem keeping up with orders despite smaller staffs. The Bovespa +2.6% in early action. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Friday, November 30, 2012, 7:39 AM Brazil's GDP grows just 0.6% in Q3, far less than forecasts for 1.2%. The punk print is lead by a steep 2% decline in investment. "If investment doesn't rebound then we are in trouble in 2013," says an economist. Interest rate futures - which had baked in no policy changes for more than a year - are sharply higher, now beginning to price in further rate cuts. EWZ +0.4% premarket. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Wednesday, November 28, 2012, 5:04 PM Ending more than a year-long string of rate cuts which brought the Selic down more than 500 basis points, Brazil's central bank leaves its benchmark rate unchanged at 7.25%, and says it will keep rates stable "for a prolonged period." Shares have thus far not responded to the easier policy, EWZ -10.2% YTD. Comment! [Global & FX]

UBR ProShares Ultra MSCI Brazil Capped ETF

UBR

ProShares Ultra MSCI Brazil Capped ETF