Sep. 15, 2013, 6:20 PM
- Citi is out with some commentary on what the market reaction will likely be to Larry Summers' withdrawal from what many thought was a two-horse race for the Fed chairmanship.
- Steven Englander of course sees "downward pressure on bond yields" and is willing to put a number on it: "[This] may be worth another 10-15 bps on the downside."
- As for the dollar, Englander says it's "hard to see it as anything but negative for now."
- Is a Yellen-run Fed a foregone conclusion? Maybe not: "This throws the field wide open between Janet Yellen, Donald Kohn, Roger Ferguson among others."
- Treasury ETFs - TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX
- Dollar ETFs - DBV, UUP, UDN, UUPT, UDNT
- Previous coverage
Sep. 15, 2013, 6:07 PM
- Reactions come in from all over to Larry Summers pulling his hat out of the Fed chairmanship ring.
- Phil Izzo: Odds now on Yellen, but they've been wrong before. (WSJ)
- Felix Salmon: Abrasive Summers is the wrong man to lead any major institution; Yellen should be the choice.
- The dollar has begun to slip in global trade on the news; to an eight-month low against pound; euro jumps to $1.337.
- Currency ETFs: UUP, UDN, FXE, EUO, FXY
Aug. 28, 2013, 7:38 AM
- The 10-year yield fell to as low as 2.70% overnight, but is currently 3 bps above yesterday afternoon at 2.74%. TLT -0.4% premarket.
- Europe's off moderately and Asia fell inline with yesterday's decline in the U.S., but crude oil surged more than $3 per barrel to $112 before falling back to just above $109 at the moment.
- The dollar (UUP) is stronger across the board, with the euro (FXE), cable (FXB), yen (FXY), swissie (FXF), and loonie (FXC) all off somewhere in the area of 0.5% against the greenback. As is typical of late, the aussie's (FXA) decline is somewhat higher, -0.8%.
- Other dollar ETFs: UUPT, UDN, UDNT.
- Related currency ETFs: ERO, ULE, URR, EUO, DRR, EUFX, GBB.
- Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
Aug. 27, 2013, 7:49 AM
- Moving along with the precious metals over Syrian tension is crude oil, with both WTI crude (USO) and Brent (BNO) up more than 1.6%. WTI at $107.50 per barrel is threatening to take out levels last seen in the Spring of 2011.
- The greenback is also catching a bid, moderately higher against the euro (FXE), cable (FXB), and the loonie (FXC), but sharply higher vs. the aussie (FXA). The dollar is losing a good bit of ground against the yen (FXY), and off just a bit vs. the Swiss franc (FXF).
- Dollar ETFs: UUP, UUPT, UDN, UDNT.
- Related currency ETFs: FXE, ERO, ULE, URR, EUO, DRR, EUFX, GBB, YCL, YCS, JYN.
- Oil ETFs: OIL, USO, DBO, OLO, USL, CRUD, UCO, DTO, SCO, SZO, DNO, UWTI, DWTI, BNO, UOIL, DOIL.
Aug. 15, 2013, 4:38 PM
- Rising rates, the decline in stocks, and escalating violence in Egypt provided no bid for the greenback which fell across the board today.
- The dollar (UUP -0.7%) lost more than 1% against the Swiss franc (FXF +1%) and nearly 1% vs. the yen (FXY +0.8%) and cable (FXB +0.9%). The euro (FXE +0.7%) gained nearly three quarters of one percent.
- Typically the first to sell off when markets get a bit panicky, even the loonie (FXC +0.2%) and the aussie (FXA) picked up ground against the U.S. unit.
- A reason? Maybe the commodity sector (DBC +1%) - it was notably strong with metals, energy, and the grains all higher.
- Related dollar ETFs: UUPT, UDN, UDNT.
- Broad commodity ETFs: DJP, GSP, LSC, RJI, GSC, GCC, GSG, DBC, DPU, DJCI, UCI, USCI, DYY, UCD, DEE, CMD, DDP, RGRC, CTF, CFD CSCR, CSCB.
Aug. 7, 2013, 12:47 PM
- Morgan Stanley returns to the bullish dollar camp only a few months after turning bearish on the greenback ahead of its early-summer tumble.
- "The trend in the dollar is clearly to the upside," says the bank's head of FX strategy, Hans Redeker, who sees the dollar strengthening to $1.26 per euro (FXE) and 107 yen (FXY) by year's end.
- Redeker says the reasoning for his previous bearish stance was the need for a "pause" in the rampant dollar bullishness of late spring.
- Dollar ETFs: UUP, UDN. Leveraged dollar ETFs: UUPT, UDNT.
- Other euro ETFs: ULE, ERO, URR, DRR, EUO.
- Other yen ETFs: YCL, YCS, JYN.
Jul. 16, 2013, 10:01 AMSentiment towards China (FXI, CAF) continues to worsen, according to the BAML Fund Manager Survey, with 65% seeing the country's economy weakening in the next year. In December 2012, the same percentage saw things getting better. Meanwhile, the appetite for developed-market equities (VTI) continues to grow, with those overweight stocks up 9 points in 2 months to 52%. 83% favor the dollar (UUP) over other currencies, the highest in the history of the survey. 55% are now underweight fixed income (AGG, BND), and average cash holdings are up to 4.6%, the highest in a year. "The Great Rotation is in full force," says Michael Hartnett. | 3 Comments
Jul. 11, 2013, 4:19 AMThe dollar (UDN) takes a tumble against a swathe of currencies in the wake of Ben Bernanke's comments that the U.S. economy needs a "highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future." Meanwhile, commodities rip higher. Dollar index -1.15%, EUR-USD +0.4%, GBP-USD +0.45%, USD-JPY -0.45%, AUD-USD +0.6%, USD-CAD -0.8%. Oil (OIL) +0.6%, Gold (GLD) +2.9%, Silver (SLV) +4.4%, Copper +2.9%. | 8 Comments
Jul. 5, 2013, 9:02 AMThe dollar adds to strong gains following the better-than-expected NFP print. The greenback was already higher - notably vs. the euro and sterling - following the dovish tilt of the ECB and BOE policy meetings yesterday. It's also solidly back over ¥100, up 1% and buying ¥101.06. UUP +1.5% premarket. | Comment!
Jun. 24, 2013, 7:26 AMThe Fed's Friday afternoon attempt to soothe tightening fears and tumbling overseas markets are not generating the usual bid for Treasurys which continue their declines, TLT -0.5% premarket and the 10-year Treasury yield gaining another 5 bps to 2.58%. The 5-year yield (IEI) is up another 6 bps to1.49% - a pretty big number if you believe ZIRP stays in place for another 2 years. The dollar remains, well-bid, UUP +0.3% premarket. | 6 Comments
Jun. 21, 2013, 4:05 AM
Jun. 20, 2013, 7:13 AMThe disappearing Australian dollar: The aussie (FXA) slides another 0.8% to a 3-year low of $0.9214. This currency's one-way move since early April - now off 14 handles - may be more impressive than the yen's 2013 dive. The ASX 200 (EWA) takes no comfort, falling 2.1% overnight. The greenback continues higher against all currencies following Bernanke signaling the end of QE. UUP +0.8%, UDN -0.8% premarket. For leverage fans, there's UUPT, UDNT. | 3 Comments
Jun. 20, 2013, 3:09 AMThe dollar strengthens across the board following the Ben Bernanke Show yesterday. "Bernanke was more explicit than markets had expected. Rising U.S. yields will spur broad dollar buying. The dollar's direction is now set," says Credit Agricole's Yuji Saito. USD-JPY (FXY) +1.1%, USD-EUR +0.3%, USD-GBP (GBB) +0.3%, USD-AUD +0.6%. | 2 Comments
Jun. 19, 2013, 2:13 PMBond prices (TLT -0.7%) slip following the more upbeat assessment of the economy from the FOMC. Higher growth and lower unemployment projections spell maybe a quicker schedule for tapering and eventual tightening, but materially lower inflation expectations say the opposite. Stocks give up a bit of ground as well, the S&P 500 (SPY -0.3%). The dollar (UUP +0.3%) pops higher across the board. | 4 Comments
Jun. 14, 2013, 11:08 AM
Jun. 6, 2013, 12:28 PMUnusual given past patterns, the dollar (UUP -1.7%) is being unloaded across the board and in size along with stocks selling off. The euro (FXE +1.5%), cable (FXB +1.8%), the yen (FXY +3.1%), the aussie (FXA +1.1%), and the loonie (FXC +1.3%) are all sharply higher vs. the greenback. The Dow's now off 86 points. | 14 Comments
UDN vs. ETF Alternatives
The PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish Fund (Symbol: UDN) is based on the Deutsche Bank Short US Dollar Index (USDX®) Futures Index™ (DB Short USD Futures Index). The Index, which is managed by DB Commodity Services LLC, is a rules-based index composed solely of short USDX® futures contracts. The USDX® futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being short the US Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc. You cannot invest directly in an index. Ordinary brokerage commissions apply.
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