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The United States Gasoline ETF, LP (UGA)

- NYSEARCA
  • Sun, May 31, 10:14 PM
    • The economics textbooks say crashing prices are self-correcting, i.e. prices fall, leading crimped suppliers to cut production, leading to stabilized and eventually rebounding prices. Economics textbooks, however, never had to deal with ZIRP.
    • Near-invisible interest rates means there remains a wall of cash out there in search of some sort of yield, and plenty of that money continues to flow into the oil drillers despite prices for black gold nearly $50 per barrel lower than one year ago.
    • “Essentially, everyone that we talked to except for one small firm, wanted to do a deal with us,” says the CEO of a recently-formed oil and gas producer. “There is a lot of money out there.”
    • “A lot of the industry seems to function that if you give them a dollar, they will spend it," says Michael Levi from the Council on Foreign Relations. "That leaves capital markets as the only source of discipline. If there is more capital than is warranted, you are going to see companies pick up drilling in the second half of the year and that will put pressure on prices.”
    • Indeed. In mid-May, nearly 9.6M barrels of oil per day were produced in the U.S. - the highest level since 1970.
    • Source: WSJ
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM
    | Sun, May 31, 10:14 PM | 19 Comments
  • Fri, May 29, 2:48 PM
    • WTI crude oil more than erases a week's worth of losses in the space of a few hours, closing the session up $2.61 per barrel, or 4.5% to $60.29.
    • As recently as yesterday afternoon, black gold was as low as $56.50 per barrel, and earlier today was still under $58.
    • Earlier this week, Ned Davis Research urged caution on oil itself and energy stocks, noting the exit of nearly $500M from the U.S. Oil Fund (USO +3.7%) this month, and $300M from the Energy Select SPDR (XLE -0.1%). At the same time, money has been flowing into bullish dollar ETFs.
    • "Investor flows are no longer supportive for energy ETFs. Valuations are not as compelling at this point either. … Seasonality is about to turn ugly for the energy sector. June is historically the worst month for XLE. And finally, while longer-term, the sector remains oversold, shorter-term trend evidence suggests caution for now," says NDR's Tony Welch.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, XLE, UCO, UWTI, VDE, ERX, OIH, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, ERY, DIG, DTO, UGA, DUG, BGR, USL, IYE, DNO, FENY, PXJ, FIF, UHN, OLO, SZO, RYE, FXN, TWTI, OLEM, DDG
    | Fri, May 29, 2:48 PM | 27 Comments
  • Tue, May 19, 3:07 PM
    • "We have Russia sitting at an all-time high [production], Iraq at an all-time high, Saudi at an all-time high. And you put that together and it’s not a very positive picture,” says Goldman commodity analyst Jeff Currie, speaking at a conference.
    • Currie and team earlier this week cut their medium and long-term price forecasts for crude, seeing $60 per barrel in 2017-18 (vs. $65 previously) and then just $50 by 2020.
    • WTI crude is lower by 3.6% today to $58 per barrel, its lowest price of the month.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, TWTI, OLEM
    | Tue, May 19, 3:07 PM | 48 Comments
  • Mon, May 18, 8:07 AM
    • Citing improved U.S. shale efficiency meeting global demand along with unimpeded OPEC productivity, Goldman Sachs slashes it view of the price of oil from 2016-2020. However, bowing to the reality of this year's bounce, the bank lifts its estimate of the average 2015 price for Brent to $58 per barrel from $52. WTI is raised to $52 from $48.
    • Goldman assumes a $5 per barrel Brent-WTI spread through 2016-2020.
    • Source: Reuters
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, TWTI, OLEM
    • Previously: Goldman on oil: Sell the rip (May 12)
    | Mon, May 18, 8:07 AM | 31 Comments
  • Sun, May 17, 10:52 AM
    | Sun, May 17, 10:52 AM | 53 Comments
  • Fri, May 15, 10:08 AM
    • WTI crude oil has fallen more than $1 per barrel in the last hour or so, now lower by 2.1% on the session to $58.63 per barrel. Black gold had been as high as $62 earlier this week - its high for the year.
    • Earlier, industrial production was reported to have fallen in April amid sharp cuts in the oil patch, but that's old news, and a number of shops from Goldman to Blackstone are expecting crude to renew its downtrend.
    • USO -1.6%
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, TWTI, OLEM
    | Fri, May 15, 10:08 AM | 18 Comments
  • Tue, May 12, 8:43 AM
    • The rally is "derailing the rebalancing" in oil supplies, says Goldman, thus setting the stage for the next decline in prices.
    • Production for low-cost producers like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq is offsetting strong demand growth and declining output from other markets such as the U.S.
    • While the U.S. rig count is down 60% since October, it's not enough to put production on a persistent downward trend, and oil settling above $60 per barrel could lead to U.S. producers ramping up output again.
    • “Ultimately, with evidence at hand that U.S. producers responded aggressively to low prices, the burden of proof has shifted to how they will respond to the recent recovery and whether low-cost producers can sustainably deliver higher production,” says Goldman, suggesting seasonally stronger summer demand could delay the renewed bear market until this fall.
    • Source: WSJ
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, TWTI, OLEM
    | Tue, May 12, 8:43 AM | 15 Comments
  • Thu, May 7, 3:36 PM
    • "We've had 1K rigs go down in the past four months," says Boone Pickens, holding court at the SALT hedge fund conference in Las Vegas. "The reason is that producers are not going to drill, and bankers aren't going to let them either because you're not going to be able to make a reasonable return."
    • "Demand is very, very good for oil this year. Last year, it was very, very weak."
    • West Texas crude is off a steep 3.4% today, and back under $60 per barrel at $58.85.
    • USO -2.9%
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, TWTI, OLEM
    | Thu, May 7, 3:36 PM | 26 Comments
  • Mon, May 4, 11:56 AM
    • Oil production across the Midwest peaked at nearly 10M barrels per day in February, says hedge funder Andrew Hall, and has been falling since. "We have now reached a turning point," says the oil trading legend, and the cutback in supply has "rendered all the doomsday [oil price] forecasts self-defeating."
    • Oil has bounced nearly 40% in the past six weeks, and the rally should continue, says Hall, as it will be harder for producers to ramp production back up than it was to cut back.
    • Hall's Astenbeck funds were up more than 10% YTD, say sources, and gained 10% last year - no mean feat for an oil bull given the drastic decline in prices.
    • EIA data - which led to the agency's prediction of a decline in U.S. output not starting until April - is "essentially an artifice," says Hall, noting it's based on estimates from state agencies that lag by months. A better gauge of output, he says, is an adjustment the agency uses adding up changes to how much oil is in storage, how much was used by refineries, and how much was imported and exported.
    • Flirting with $60 per barrel earlier, black gold is down 0.5% to $58.83.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, TWTI, OLEM
    | Mon, May 4, 11:56 AM | 35 Comments
  • Wed, Apr. 29, 2:19 PM
    | Wed, Apr. 29, 2:19 PM | 41 Comments
  • Tue, Apr. 28, 11:31 AM
    | Tue, Apr. 28, 11:31 AM | 7 Comments
  • Tue, Apr. 28, 10:47 AM
    • Iran has fired on a U.S. cargo ship and directed it to Bandar Abbas port on the southern coast of the country, reports Al Arabiya News. The ship is believed to have as many as 34 U.S. sailors aboard.
    • Trading at about $56 per barrel not long ago, WTI crude oil is now up to $57.44.
    • USO +0.7%
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, TWTI, OLEM
    | Tue, Apr. 28, 10:47 AM | 3 Comments
  • Mon, Apr. 27, 9:30 AM
    • Notable for the sizable inflows they saw beginning early this year as investors attempted to pick a bottom in crude, oil ETFs have registered about $2.7B of outflows over the last month, according to Macquarie.
    • Some credit the ETF buying with putting a floor underneath oil in mid-March (inflows were $6B YTD then), and they now worry if the reversal sets the stage for black gold to resume its bear market.
    • Thanks to contango,oil ETFs are strictly a trader's vehicle, and the WSJ's Nicole Friedman notes while front-month oil futures are higher by 7.3% YTD, the USO is lower by 3.4%. Similarly in 2009, front-month futures flew 78% from the bottom, while USO gained just 19%.
    • Crude is higher by 0.7% today to $57.56 per barrel.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, TWTI, OLEM
    | Mon, Apr. 27, 9:30 AM | 20 Comments
  • Tue, Apr. 21, 12:27 PM
    • Markets make opinions, and oil's sizable bounce over the past month - 30% and counting - has the team at JPMorgan seeing "signs of stability and modest upside" for black gold.
    • "The bottoming-out phase for oil prices has occurred more quickly than anticipated driven by Iraq’s production shortfall during Q1, stronger-than-expected refinery runs absorbing surplus crude supplies, and rising geopolitical tensions centered on the conflict intensifying in Yemen," says Joyce Chang, head of global research at the bank, who also sees stronger demand growth, particularly towards year-end.
    • Source: Barron's
    • Previously: Baker Hughes increases layoffs to 10,500 (April 21)
    • Oil's about unchanged on the session at $56.30 per barrel.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, TWTI, OLEM
    | Tue, Apr. 21, 12:27 PM | 12 Comments
  • Tue, Apr. 14, 1:00 PM
    • Outflows from four of the largest oil ETFs, including the biggest USO, hit $338M in the two weeks ended on April 8, according to Lipper. It's the first two-week outflow since September, and a big turnaround from early this year when bottom-fishers poured into the funds.
    • The exit comes as WTI crude oil has rebounded about $10 per barrel over the past month, with much of that bounce occurring during the last two weeks.
    • "[ETFs] have become a problem," says one oil economist, as the vehicles have allowed speculators to maybe dash the Middle East's hope of prices falling enough to dent non-OPEC output.
    • Oil is up by another 3.2% today, touching its highest price of the year.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, TWTI, OLEM
    | Tue, Apr. 14, 1:00 PM | 22 Comments
  • Tue, Apr. 7, 4:44 PM
    • U.S. crude oil inventories rose 12.2M barrels last week, according to the API, up from 5.2M barrels the previous and week and against expectations for a 3M barrel gain.
    • The EIA reports its numbers tomorrow morning.
    • WTI crude oil is lower by 0.8% to $53.13 in per barrel in after hours action following about a 3% gain in the regular session to its highest level of 2015.
    • USO -1.2% after hours.
    • Previously: Oil back on the move after brief pause (April 7)
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, UWTI, USL, DWTI, UHN, DNO, SZO, OLO, TWTI, OLEM
    | Tue, Apr. 7, 4:44 PM | 34 Comments
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UGA Description
The United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA) is an exchange traded security that is designed to track in percentage terms the movements of gasoline prices.
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