Seeking Alpha
 

The United States Gasoline ETF, LP (UGA)

- NYSEARCA
  • Nov. 17, 2014, 8:34 AM
    • In Texas last week to meet with portfolio managers, Goldman chief equity strategist David Kostin says most conversations "started and ended on the topic of oil."
    • "Although still stunned by the ferocity of the selloff," writes Kostin, "everyone we met was resigned to the idea that crude prices would remain low for several years. Although we met many Longhorn alumni, we met no energy bulls."
    • Kostin expects WTI crude at $75-$80 is the level at which U.S. shale producers will slow activity, and capex growth from oil companies - which has accounted for 1/3 of the S&P 500's capex over the last five years - will likely be flat in 2015.
    • WTI crude is lower by 0.9% today to $75.13 per barrel.
    • USO -1% premarket
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, SZO, OLO, OLEM, TWTI
    | 5 Comments
  • Nov. 13, 2014, 3:20 PM
    | 48 Comments
  • Nov. 13, 2014, 11:27 AM
    • The EIA reported a 1.7M barrel decline in crude stocks last week vs. a 500K gain the previous week, and expectations for an increase of 750K barrels.
    • Behind the decline was increased refinery usage, with crude runs rising by 267K barrels per day and refinery utilization rates up 170 basis points. Gasoline (UGA -1.3%) stocks rose by 1.8M barrels vs. expectations for 517K, and distillates (UHN +0.8%) fell by 2.8M barrels vs. expectations for 1.3M.
    • Nevertheless, WTI crude (USO -1.9%) carves out another multi-year low at $75.36 per barrel.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, SZO, OLO, TWTI, OLEM
    | 1 Comment
  • Nov. 13, 2014, 7:11 AM
    • “Talk of a price war is a sign of misunderstanding — deliberate or otherwise — and has no basis in reality,” says Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi, in his first public comments in months as he tries to shoot down the chatter.
    • Meanwhile, at least one team of analysts - those at Commerzbank - interpreted his comments as saying Saudi Arabia would be perfectly happy if prices were to stabilize at these low levels.
    • In OPEC's monthly report, the group said crude production fell by 226.4K barrels per day in October to 30.25M - most of the drop was due to Saudi output falling to 9.6M barrels per day. Traders say this amount of production is still significantly above the amount needed to balance the market and thus further cuts will be necessary.
    • January Brent crude oil (NYSEARCA:BNO) is lower by 1% to $80.28, and December WTI crude (NYSEARCA:USO) is down 0.5% to $76.78.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, UHN, DWTI, DNO, SZO, OLO, OLEM, TWTI
    | 1 Comment
  • Nov. 5, 2014, 1:04 PM
    • Rumors of a pipeline explosion in Saudi Arabia had oil spiking earlier this morning, but in fact it was a fire during construction repairs that was quickly brought under control.
    • In other news, EIA data showed a build in crude inventories of just 460K barrels, well shy of last week's 2.1M gain, and expectations for a 2.2M barrel boost.
    • It adds up to a 1.5% gain in WTI crude to $78.33 per barrel - barely a blip on the major four-month downtrend for oil.
    • USO +1.6%
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, UHN, DNO, DWTI, SZO, OLO, OLEM, TWTI
    | Comment!
  • Nov. 4, 2014, 9:43 AM
    • “News that Saudi has cut its asking price to customers in the U.S. suggests even the largest OPEC producer is now worried about its market share," says FOREX.com's Fawad Razaqzada. "This does not bode well for the future of the cartel."
    • It should be noted Saudi Arabia raised prices for other locations, including Asia after four consecutive monthly cuts.
    • Slowing economic activity is also at work as the EU Commission cut its forecast for European GDP growth, now expecting expansion of just 0.8%
    • WTI crude (NYSEARCA:USO) is down 2.25% to a 3-year low of $77.16 per barrel. As the U.S. moves into the heating season, heating oil (NYSEARCA:UHN) is near a four-year low of $2.45 per gallon. A trip around the mid-Atlantic shows gasoline (NYSEARCA:UGA) below $3 per gallon at the retail level for the first time in recent memory.
    • Inventory data from the API is due later today.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, DNO, DWTI, SZO, OLO, TWTI, OLEM
    | 3 Comments
  • Oct. 31, 2014, 6:26 PM
    • The average gallon of gasoline in the U.S. will cost less than $3 this weekend for the first time in nearly four years, with more than 60% of all U.S. stations selling gas for less than $3/gallon, according to AAA.
    • "We're going to continue going down, and by Thanksgiving I'm seeing $2.80 a gallon" before stabilizing into early 2015, oil analyst Andy Lipow tells CNBC, noting that gasoline futures are tumbling, which will be passed on to consumers over the next few weeks.
    • Lipow remains wary of a potential market surprise if Saudi Arabia decides to cut production, "since the market thinks that OPEC is going to do nothing."
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, DNO, DWTI, SZO, OLO, OLEM
    | 17 Comments
  • Oct. 27, 2014, 7:49 AM
    • "We believe that OPEC will no longer act as the first-mover swing producer and that U.S. shale oil output will be called upon to fill this role,” says Goldman, cutting its 2015 Q1 oil price forecasts by $15 per barrel - WTI to $75, Brent to $85. "Our forecast also reflects the realization of a loss of pricing power by core-OPEC.”
    • The Goldman team believes OPEC's largest members - rather than responding to price declines by cutting production - are attempting to defend market share by reducing prices.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, UHN, DNO, DWTI, SZO, OLO, OLEM
    • WTI crude is flat in morning action at $80.52.
    | 3 Comments
  • Oct. 22, 2014, 2:44 PM
    • Crude inventories rose 7.1M barrels for the week ended October 17, according to the EIA, vs. expectations for a 2.7M jump. Helping boost inventories were fewer refinery runs - down 113K barrels per day with utilization rates dropping 140 basis points to 86.7%. In the Midwest, utilization rates are the lowest for this point in the year since 2010.
    • WTI crude oil last week briefly dropped under $80 per barrel for the first time since the summer of 2012, and it's testing that level again today, -2.9% to $80.36. USO -2.4%
    • Gasoline (UGA -2.2%) stockpiles fell 1.3M barrels vs. expectations for a 1M barrel drop, and distillates (UNH -0.8%) rose 1M barrels vs. expectations for a 1.3M barrel decline.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, DNO, DWTI, SZO, OLO, OLEM, TWTI
    | 6 Comments
  • Oct. 18, 2014, 8:25 AM
    | 26 Comments
  • Oct. 16, 2014, 7:25 AM
    | 7 Comments
  • Oct. 14, 2014, 2:43 PM
    • In a bear market any news will do, and IEA earlier slashed its outlook for oil demand - with expected growth in 2015 now about 300K barrels per day less than previously estimated.
    • WTI crude (NYSEARCA:USO) is down 4.2% to $82.25 per barrel, the weakest print since late-June 2012. As the country moves into heating season, heating oil (NYSEARCA:UHN) - down 3.3% today to $2.47 per gallon - is also at its lowest since the early summer of 2012. The U.S. Gasoline Fund (UGA -3%).
    • Carving out a moderate advance, the major averages are getting no help from the energy sector (XLE -0.5%).
    • ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, PXJ, FENY, RYE, FXN, DDG
    | 16 Comments
  • Oct. 13, 2014, 12:38 PM
    • Calling a bottom is a fool's game and macro conditions continue to weigh, but oil - down another 1.15% today to $84.84 per barrel - is looking good on a risk-reward basis, say analysts Adam Longson and Elizabeth Volynsky.
    • "While fundamentals have been poor through much of the summer and fall, much of the last leg of downside has simply been a result of financial flows, sentiment and macro fears. Physical markets are strengthening, with more improvement ahead."
    • The team says analysts are too concerned with demand for gasoline and heating oil and thus missing the big picture of a strong long-term demand for crude. There's no sign, they say, of a sharp decline in demand outside of Europe, Japan, and Mexico (i.e. the U.S. and China are still gobbling it up).
    • “From a crude standpoint, OPEC is right to expect a material improvement in demand."
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, UHN, DNO, DWTI, SZO, OLO, OLEM, TWTI
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 8, 2014, 9:17 AM
    • The path of least resistance for crude oil remains down, and the selling continues following yesterday's losses amid plunging stocks,  lowered growth forecasts from the IMF, and the EIA cutting its oil consumption estimates for this year and next.
    • One month ago, the EIA called for international consumption of 91.55M barrels/day in 2014 and 92.89M in 2015. The latest forecast says 91.47M and 92.71M, respectively.
    • In other news, oil coming from the Bakken Shale boom might have another large customer as companies are plowing ahead with rail depots in California which will allow that state's refiners to take advantage of cheaper U.S. supplies.
    • WTI crude is lower by 1.2% to $87.67 per barrel.
    • USO -1.4% premarket
    • Ahead is the EIA inventory report at 10:30 ET.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, UHN, DNO, DWTI, SZO, OLO, OLEM, TWTI
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 2, 2014, 6:37 PM
    • Ethanol futures plunged 28% in September as falling domestic demand left U.S. producers with the largest inventories since March 2013, sending stock prices for some ethanol makers reeling recently following big gains earlier in the year; shares of Green Plains (NASDAQ:GPRE), one of the biggest U.S. producers, slid 16% in September, while Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ:PEIX) plunged 40%.
    • Ethanol prices have fallen for much of this year because the price of corn plummeted due to a record crop last year and expectations for an even larger one this year; industry margins fell to ~$0.22/gal. in late September, down from an all-time high of $2.04/gal. in April, but "ethanol margins have largely bottomed out for the short term and will likely rebound in the next three to six months due to exports," says Citi analyst Aakash Doshi.
    • Producers are cutting output, with U.S. ethanol production falling to a six-month low of 881K bbl/day in the week ended Sept. 26 EIA says; transportation snags this winter also could send prices climbing again.
    • ETFs: CORN, PBW, UGA, QCLN, PUW, FUE, HECO
    | 5 Comments
  • Oct. 1, 2014, 3:26 PM
    • U.S. refineries lowered the crude oil they processed by the most in eight months, to 16M bbl/day and down 3.8% from the previous week, as plants began normal seasonal maintenance.
    • Plants typically schedule maintenance in September and October when units move from maximizing gasoline output to producing winter fuels.
    • Examples: Maintenance has begun at Total’s (NYSE:TOT) 225K bbl/day Port Arthur, Tex., refinery, Phillips 66’s (NYSE:PSX) Lake Charles refinery is conducting planned maintenance, and Motiva Enterprises' Norco, La., refinery began planned work this week.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, DNO, DWTI, SZO, OLO, OLEM
    | 1 Comment
UGA vs. ETF Alternatives
UGA Description
The United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA) is an exchange traded security that is designed to track in percentage terms the movements of gasoline prices.
See more details on sponsor's website
ETF Hub
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio: Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub