Crude rallied hard into the close on Friday, perhaps over worry of some geopolitical blow-up over the weekend, but - with no blow-up forthcoming - it's resumed its slide, off 1.4% to $96.04 per barrel - right around the lowest since late January.
"The world has changed," says energy market analyst Daniel Dicker, noting conflicts in Russia/Ukraine, Iraq, and Syria, along with destabilization in Libya and Egypt - had they happened a few years back - would have sent prices soaring. What's different today, he says, is the exit from trading by the large investment banks. "This has taken an enormous amount of speculative steam out of the oil trade."
“Despite armed conflict in Libya, Iraq and Ukraine, the oil market today looks better supplied than expected, with an oil glut even reported in the Atlantic basin," says the International Energy Agency in its monthly report.
Alongside the bearish supply outlook, the IEA cut its global demand forecast for this year by 180K barrels per day to 1M. Demand is expected to rise to 1.3M barrels per day next year.
WTI crude is down 0.9% to $97.19, its lowest price since February. USO -0.6% premarket
The API late yesterday reported a 3M barrel build in domestic supplies, a number the EIA is expected to confirm in its own report at 10:30 ET.
WTI crude (USO) is off 1.9% to $96.48, the lowest price since late June. Brent crude (BNO) isn't off nearly as much and the spread between the two has widened to a 6-month high of about $12 per barrel.
Behind the stock build and lower U.S. prices could be refinery maintenance shutdowns. Fewer runs mean lower demand for crude, but also mean less product - gasoline and distillate supplies are both expected to print lower in the EIA report.
It seems like we can have higher stock prices or lower crude oil prices, but we can't have both. Crude continues a 6-week rally, moving to its highest price since spring at $94.24. The gasoline ETF: UGA +14.9% in the last month. Earlier, inventory data showed an unexpected draw on stocks.
Crude futures tumble 2.3% to $82.86. Natural gas (-0.9%) and gasoline (-1.3%) aren't looking too hot either. Disappointment from lack of Fed easing hints? Concerns over upcoming China data? Or just a general bearish sell-off?