United States Heating Oil Fund (UHN)
Loading...
Symbols:
UHN Forum Topics
- All Comments on UHN
- General Discussion on UHN
- A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
- Winter Heating Oil, Nat. Gas and Crude Oil Preview [view article]
- Weekly Market Outlook: Sept. 2 - 5 [view article]
- Tracking Crack Spreads [view article]
- Another 1-for-4 Oil Forecast [view article]
- 0 for 4: Oil Analysts Surprised by Everything [view article]
- Commodity ETFs and ETNs [view article]
- Light and Sweet: Oil ETFs Ranked [view article]
- Oil Guesses Getting Better, Still Off [view article]
- Oil Inventories Report Full of Surprises [view article]
- Oil Guesstimates Still Hit-And-Miss [view article]
- Crude Oil Flips to Contango [view article]
loading ...Recent UHN Articles
- Winter Heating Oil, Nat. Gas and Crude Oil Preview
- Weekly Market Outlook: Sept. 2 - 5
- Commodity and Energy Fund Returns
- Another 1-for-4 Oil Forecast
- 0 for 4: Oil Analysts Surprised by Everything
- A 360 View of Returns (July 2008)
- Light and Sweet: Oil ETFs Ranked
- Oil Guesses Getting Better, Still Off
- Oil Inventories Report Full of Surprises
- Oil Guesstimates Still Hit-And-Miss
- Full List of Articles »
Trading Center
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers: Search jobs by category, get job alerts by email or live feed, apply online See full list of jobs »
Employers: See all recruitment options, get applications online or by email Post a job »
A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
job well done and very easy to follow ReplyEditor
Winter Heating Oil, Nat. Gas and Crude Oil Preview [view article]
The crack spread for spot month crude versus one-month distant products was $9.59 per barrel as of Friday's close, yielding a gross refining margin of 9.02%.With the decline in crude prices, refining margins have slowed their seasonal decline and actually buoyed from an early August low of 5.78% (crack spread equivalent: $6.92 per barrel).
The crack spread, and other petroleum complex data, are updated every Wednesday in Hard Assets Investors' daily column, "Brad's Desktop." The most recent update is here: www.hardassetsinvestor.... Reply
Winter Heating Oil, Nat. Gas and Crude Oil Preview [view article]
Thanks Tim, your article gives me still more reasons to buy the beaten up refiners segment - wnr is trading for a P/S of 0,06 although revenue has doubled and insiders holding strongly and buying - this puppy looks to skyrocket when and if they surprise the market with good numbers - I would like to know if you can give me the crack spread ratio - I do my technical analysis on stockcharts.com - thanks ReplyWeekly Market Outlook: Sept. 2 - 5 [view article]
THE EARLY CSCO OF STEM CELL RESEARCH AND THERAPY...KOOL.still under radar screen of most analysts. Reply
Editor
Tracking Crack Spreads [view article]
Emthree -Let me try to clear up the terminology more succinctly. The "crack" in oil traders' parlance refers to the refining (or "cracking") products -- heating oil and gasoline.
When one "buys the crack," he/she is buying the refining output products and selling the crude oil input. Conversely, "selling the crack" means a trader is buying crude oil and selling the prioducts.
The "spread" refers the (usual) premium commanded by the products over the cost of crude oil.
Diagrammed,a crack spread looks like this:
Buy (Long) Sell (Short) Buy (Long)
CL - (HO +RB) = Spread
While the guys and gals on the trading floor may be "selling the crack," they are at the same time "buying the spread." They want the spread--the products' premium--to migrate in a positive direction (to increase) over the life of the trade.
Capice?
Reply
Editor
Tracking Crack Spreads [view article]
Anachronist -Natural gas isn't a product of oil refining, so its value doesn't figure into refining margins. Propane can be an output of either natural gas or petroleum distillate production. On the refining side, it's a relatively small factor.
The other products you mentioned don't have futures, so can't be readily proxied. Without real-time price discovery, the spreads utilizing them wouldn't reflect current reality.
As you pointed out, the two distillates--heating oil and gasoline--make up most of the refining output. They're the most marketable products, so their prices influence a refiner's bottom line most significantly. Reply
Editor
Tracking Crack Spreads [view article]
Bobbo -The crack spread shown uses product contracts one month forward of the crude futures employed, as stated: "To better simulate real-world conditions, use the distillate prices a month out from the crude delivery to allow for a storage, refining and marketing cycle."
Refinery capacity has NOT been all that that high. Refiners are using only 85%-87% of operable capacity in this high-priced oil environment.
Emthree -
Buying the crack or selling the crack depends upon your context. If you're talking about the spread "cheapening,"... for example, our lexicon demands that you "sell" now to make a profit. When diagramming the trade, however, the sequence would be:
Long CL--Short HO&RB--Long Spread.
Reply
Tracking Crack Spreads [view article]
Please check the Nymex descriptions of buying and selling the crak spreads which are exactly the opposite of your descriptions in this article."sell the crack;”- buy crude futures and sell gasoline and heating oil futures.
www.nymex.com/media/cr... Reply
Tracking Crack Spreads [view article]
Brad,Your description of buying and selling the crack spread seems to be wrong in this article ;
"*sell the spread*; in expectation of the seasonal narrowing in refining margins ....entails selling short three futures contracts while simultaneously holding two gasoline contracts and one heating oil contract long"
"*buy the spread* ... holding three crude oil futures long against the sale of two gasoline contracts and one heating oil futures"
Isn't each transaction exactly the *opposite* of your description ?
Larry Livingstone has raised this query in his July/21 post but you have not addressed this query. I look forward to your clarifcation.
Reply
Another 1-for-4 Oil Forecast [view article]
why do we care/follow this weekly hodgepoge?perhaps the trader/business hedger cares. if so they'd best have better alternative info sources than the gov't. Reply
Another 1-for-4 Oil Forecast [view article]
Yup! Gasoline reserves are down and Crude are up.! Odd how that works out... jegan ;-) Reply0 for 4: Oil Analysts Surprised by Everything [view article]
well, who is the gretaer fool? The fool (most analysts, at least when it comes to very short-term predictions) or those who follow the fool (all the short term traders).All these weekly, or even monthly numbers and deviations don't mean sh!t in the larger scheme of things. Why anyone follows those numbers other than for the purpose of figuring out possible emerging or ending trends, is beyond me. Reply
0 for 4: Oil Analysts Surprised by Everything [view article]
I follow the weekly reports and the "analysts" are wrong far more often than not, frequently in the completely wrong direction. Their prediction success rate wouldn't land them a job in the weather forecasting business. And they probably get paid far more than I do. ReplyCommodity ETFs and ETNs [view article]
Would anyone recommend a livestock ETF or ETN?Taxation as US investor...any opinions? (reading prospectus)
Do these have enough liquidity...I cannot seem to locate avg. volume?
Looking at:
CATL, ETFS Live Cattle...trades on London
COW, iPath Livestock Reply
Commodity ETFs and ETNs [view article]
I'm missing RJI, RJN, and RJZ. Reply