Ultralife Batteries Inc. (ULBI)
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- Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
- Energy Storage Opportunities vs. Irrational Expectations [view article]
- Energy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage [view article]
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- Energy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage
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Petersen
Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
APOLOGY AND CORRECTIONThank you for bringing my incorrect assertion that ZBB was late in its SEC reports to my attention. While I don't usually make this kind of error, I did in this case and I owe ZBB and its investors an apology.
A review of ZBB's recent Form 10-K shows that the company has a financial solid position. Moreover, everything I've read to date indicates that flow batteries like ZBBs are the only game in town for small scale diurnal storage. Given ZBB's financial strength, cost advantages to users, tax credit eligibility in solar installations and dominant position in what I believe will be a critical storage niche, I think ZBB belongs in my transition manufacturer's class and is one of the better values in the class. Reply
Verkuilen
Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
John: I have just been made aware of the reference herein to ZBB and the fact that they were late in filing their June 30th 10-Q. Please be aware that their year-end is June 30th, and they have since filed their 10-K without any delay. Please amend the article herein so there is no confusion.By the way, I do appreciate your intelligent articles on the energy storage sector. They are very insightful and helpful to the investment community. Best regards, Joanne Reply
Petersen
Energy Storage Opportunities vs. Irrational Expectations [view article]
I'm not a chemist or privy to inside technical information, but I would love to hear an explanation of how ALTI's proposed lithium titanate battery is different from Toshiba's existing lithium titanate battery. See:www.greencarcongress.c...
Reply
Energy Storage Opportunities vs. Irrational Expectations [view article]
Good points! Why does the investing community seem to think that ALTI's Lithium titanate oxide deal is "just another lithium battery"?On Sep 16 10:13 PM jprovinc wrote:
> John,
> Given the current financial crisis, did you really have to go any
> further than "Mr Market has killed the electric car.." I hope it's
> nothing more than a flesh wound ,'ala Monty Python. Operating capital
> is going to be a critical element for successful market introduction.
> A123's IPO might now be adversely affected. In the mean time, it
> will be a fight for survival for all participants. I am biased toward
> the unique LiTitanate chemistries of ALTI and HEV(EnerDel). Lithium
> Titanate does not form an SEI membrane as do other LiIon chemistries
> and this offers less internal resistance.+++ DD. EnerDel has a Hard
> Carbon (HC) anode in its Think EV battery pack. AXPW(Axion)'s hard
> carbon anode sounds promising too. I'll be looking forward to your
> next article and thank you for the current chart. I'll try to post
> an intro link of HEV
> www.nextenergynews.com...
>
> Good luck and health to all. Reply
Energy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage [view article]
The USA LiIon segment got a leg up today from someone. I'm thinking that the $25 billion appropriation by congress sparked some interest. Stipulations regarding funding included advanced technology and MPG. Re-tooling for new BEV's would 'fit the bill'. ReplyPetersen
Energy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage [view article]
The 75% figure comes from a May 2008 Energy Storage Industry Report prepared by Merriman Curhan Ford. The author of the report is Craig E. Irwin, their Vice President of Energy Storage & Efficiency.I saw the reports of Mr. Grassheimer's statements when he made them. But without a whole lot of backup information on where the raw materials will come from and why the prices will decline, I have a hard time accepting everything that's said as gospel. I guess it comes from too many years of dealing with small companies that have high hopes for cost reductions that don't materialize.
The global trends for commodity prices have been sharply higher for several years and Jim Rogers tells us we haven't seen anything yet. The reports I've read on lithium resources say that once we burn through the South American resources, more processing will be required to get to a useful raw material. Between global trends in commodity prices and the fact that more processing is usually more expensive, I have a hard time believing that materials costs will fall sharply. Reply
Energy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage [view article]
Please accept this clarification*- at the lowest cost ,scale volume level, re: less 50% as in the above article- materials could approach 70-75% as the price drops to this level. Sorry for the bite. ReplyEnergy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage [view article]
John,First of all, I hope you are wrong too. (regarding LiIon) Secondly, please try and remember where you heard or saw the battery material cost % #'s and provide a link. Even with cobalt, materials wouldn't be that high of a %. Check this link and especially the comments.
www.autobloggreen.com/.../
Last but not least, good luck and investing to all interested in this subject. Reply
Energy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage [view article]
To assume because any one of the big three announce that they have changed the world, and in two years none the less is shocking if anyone actually believes it. The econominc turmoil allows them the "get out of jail card" and everyone says, of course you can't achieve anything in this economy. Government targets get scrapped and things move forward status quo. ReplyEnergy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage [view article]
To assume that because one of the big three announce they've changed the world as we know it and in that it will happen in two years none the less, is quite shocking if anyone actually believes it. With this economic turmoil, the big three have plenty of excuses as to why they won't ultimately be able to achieve any of the government targets, or their own projections, and everyone will say, "of course" back to stauts quo. ReplyPetersen
Energy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage [view article]
There is nothing I would like better than to be wrong about the future of electric cars, unless I could be wrong about the future cost of Li-ion batteries. Either error would be good for the country and neither would hurt the outlook for old reliable lead-acid batteries. But the fact that I would love to be wrong does not change my fundamental beliefs.The auto companies will sell a lot of electric cars because there are a lot of people who will make poor financial choices for the right status symbol. I just believe that the number of people who can afford to pay a status premium will be a small percentage of the total population. Joe Lunchbucket is not going to buy an EV unless and until the economics and performance numbers work for him. That glowing future is a long way off.
I feel the same way about Li-ion batteries. The best estimates I've seen say that 75% of product cost is raw materials and the other 25% is labor, overhead and profit. There seem to be lots of unanswered raw materials availability questions. More importantly, Moore's law does not apply to basic chemistry and I'm convinced that anyone who is looking for quantum leaps in a 20-year old technology is delusional. So the only way I see for Li-ion battery prices to fall significantly is if somebody finds a way to ignore the basic laws of chemistry or some clever geologist finds immense new raw materials reserves in our back yard. Reply
Energy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage [view article]
John: I think you should watch the CNBC Special Report on the introduction of a full line of electrically powered vehicles coming out from Chrysler; some in 2009, the rest in 2010.It amazes me how Chysler kept this under wraps, almost like it was a "Black Project."
One model is an extended range mini-van, that goes the first 40 miles all electric, then a gas assist engine kicks in to run the range up to 400 miles on 9 gallons of gas. Chysler will also have a "city-car" as well as a fully electric sports car that goes from zero to sixty in 5 seconds, and will recharge in 4 hours using a 220 volt hookup (8 hours for a 110 volt line). There are even more models, I think nine in all.
Electric vehicles are already here and the Chrysler announcement is proof that way more are coming!
Watch this video and let Bob Nardelli, CEO of Chrysler, sway your opinion some.
Reply
Petersen
Energy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage [view article]
It's been a long time since I worked in the mining sector, but not so long that I've forgotten that reserve quantities, quality and location matter. Right now the cheap lithium comes from Chile and Argentina. The next big reserves are in that world famous raw material exporter China. After that, you get to really complex extraction and purification techniques. It's indisputable that there's a metric ton of gold in every cubic mile of seawater, but the fact that it exists does not make it economic.In the final analysis, I don't know enough about global lithium reserves to make an intelligent judgment. If you do, congratulations. When somebody can show me a consensus that lithium reserves are not an issue, I may get comfortable. But when a whole lot of people who are a whole lot smarter than me can't agree, the safest thing I can do is stand on the sideline till the dust clears. Reply
Energy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage [view article]
C'mon, guy, huge R&D dollars are going into large cell lithium cells at a manic pace by some very well-funded large companies: LG, Sanyo, Hitachi, Panasonic, Continental, Saft, to name just a few. And Continental just announced their lithium HEV pack is ready NOW and will be used very shortly in the new Mercedes hybrid sedan. Bob Lutz claims the very powerful lithium batteries (LGChem and A123) GM is testing for the Volt have been performing "flawlessly" to date and will provide 40 miles all-electric range.So the batteries are here, and now it's just a matter of getting production up and prices down. Given the huge global demand for ultra fuel efficient vehicles, I don't see how this CAN'T happen. And the lithium shortage scenario is a canard. Lithium is one of the most abundant elements on the planet, and market forces will fill future demand. Reply
Petersen
Energy Storage Opportunities After the Market Carnage [view article]
In a market like this one, vultures are far more common than white knights. I can't disagree with anything you say about the status of VRB's technology or manufacturing capacity. I also think it's hard to question the value of flow batteries for diurnal storage and other applications that require hours of discharge capacity. My problem is that I've never seen a micro-cap company get more than salvage value once it runs out of cash. Reply