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Monday, December 24, 2012, 11:23 AM Shorts in the euros give up, with CFTC data showing speculators net short the common currency to the tune of just 9.7K contracts. Short positions have typically been several multiples of that amount for much of 2012. After sinking to about $1.20 mid-summer, the euro is buying $1.3190, a couple of cents more than at the year's start. Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, December 18, 2012, 10:56 AM The already-approved (see Tepper) rate cut in Mario Draghi's back pocket may see the light of day soon if the euro continues its run higher. Financial implosion may be off the table, but the EU economy remains in recession, and the euro just broke out to an 8-month high of $1.3210. FXE +0.35%. Comment! [Global & FX, On the Move]
Monday, December 17, 2012, 10:23 AM The euro could see $1.40 next year, says Goldman, taking the view that the the ECB's OMT program marked a trough for the EU difficulties. Another catalyst is the covering of still-high short positions in the common currency. After a lot of swinging about, FXE +1.4% YTD. Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, December 11, 2012, 1:35 PM "I believe we should continue to focus on ensuring the effectiveness of monetary policy," says the ECB's Peter Praet. "There is little margin of maneuver." The ECB's benchmark lending rate is 0.75% and the deposit rate is 0%, so "little margin" would seem self-evident; his remarks suggest maybe a rate cut in January, but little else. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Sunday, December 9, 2012, 6:31 PM The euro reflexively gaps down to $1.2892 at the open as traders ponder the possible return to power of Silvio Berlusconi in Italy. Quickly bouncing, the common currency is now -0.2% and buying $1.2905. S&P 500 futures are flat. Comment! [Global & FX]
Friday, December 7, 2012, 11:05 AM More on the ECB nearly cutting rates yesterday: Chatter says the move was scuttled by Draghi, Weidmann, Asmussen, and Coeure. It's a big governing council, but aren't those the only votes that matter? Separately, in a speech today, Draghi worries lower rates could spark a weakening euro. Is this not among the things the EU needs? 3 Comments [Global & FX]
Friday, December 7, 2012, 7:51 AM More on the euro: A leak out of the ECB says a majority of the governing council support a rate cut, suggesting to be prepared for one in early January. A cut in the overnight lending rate would bring it to 0.5%, but a cut in the deposit rate would bring that into negative territory. It's a new world. The euro briefly falls below $1.29 before quickly reclaiming the level. Comment! [Global & FX, Breaking News, On the Move]
Friday, December 7, 2012, 7:44 AM The one-two punch from Draghi's dovish comments yesterday and the Bundesbank's dour German forecast today is taking effect on the euro, which continues to quickly back off the $1.31 level. The common currency is off another 0.5% today, buying $1.2901. Mission accomplished. FXE -0.5% premarket. Comment! [Global & FX]
Thursday, December 6, 2012, 8:57 AM Draghi: The ECB is "operationally prepared" for negative interest rates. The bank's deposit facility currently yields 0.0%. As for the benchmark refinancing rate (now at 0.75%), Draghi says a cut was discussed. It sounds like the ECB is waiting for a couple of soft CPI prints to give it an excuse for cutting. The euro is sliding now, -0.3% to $1.3031. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Wednesday, December 5, 2012, 7:53 AM October's decline in EU retail sales footed to 3.6% on a Y/Y basis, far worse than a -0.8% forecast, and the biggest annual fall since May 2009. The euro, meanwhile, continues to cruise along at its highest level since the Spring, buying $1.3069. 4 Comments [Global & FX]
Tuesday, December 4, 2012, 7:20 AM Crisis over? Probably not, but the euro/Swiss franc cross rises to its highest level in many moons as word leaks Credit Suisse's negative rate on franc deposits will be as high as 1%. The euro is currently buying CHF 1.2132, far above the SNB's CHF 1.20 floor. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Monday, December 3, 2012, 11:06 AM Credit Suisse does indeed plan to begin charging negative interest rates on Swiss franc deposits, "inviting customers to keep cash balances as low as possible." Whether this will have effect on safe-haven flows is another story. What's a couple of basis points to a wealthy Spanish family or company concerned about a euro exit or capital controls in their home country. 2 Comments [Global & FX]
Monday, December 3, 2012, 7:58 AM Negative deposit rates may come to Switzerland as Credit Suisse reportedly informs clients it intends to make them pay for the privilege of banking cash there. The euro/Swiss franc cross shoots higher to CHF 1.2090, well above the SNB floor of 1.20, and perhaps taking pressure off the bank to keep buying every euro in sight. Comment! [Global & FX]
Wednesday, November 28, 2012, 12:42 PM The Swiss franc remains too high vs. the euro, says SNB Chairman Jordan, promising to defend the CHF 1.20 floor with "determination." The floor defense - printing francs in unlimited quantities - has ballooned the SNB balance sheet to 10X its level of 5 years ago. Running out of euros to buy, the bank now has 12% of its reserves invested in foreign stocks. And we give Bernanke a hard time? Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, November 20, 2012, 7:03 AM Kudos to anyone who bought the reflexive dip in the euro on the French downgrade announcement last night. "Reflecting an already existing reality," the move had little lasting effect and the common currency has retraced its fall, now flat at $1.2814. European shares are marginally lower, with the CAC 40 -0.2%. Comment! [Global & FX]
Monday, November 19, 2012, 5:26 PM The euro quickly gives up 0.3% on the French downgrade. CAC-40 futures showed the tiniest of dips, but have returned to about unchanged. Keep an eye on French bond yields to see if they continue tracking the core, rather than the periphery. Ten-year OATS yield 2.07%. The 2-year is at a very Aaa-like 0.11%. 2 Comments [Global & FX]

ULE ProShares Ultra Euro ETF

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ProShares Ultra Euro ETF