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- Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (5/12/08) [view article]
- Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
- Commodity ETFs and ETNs [view article]
- Overbought and Oversold ETFs [view article]
- Natural Gas Picture May Be Brightening [view article]
- Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (5/1/08) [view article]
- The Realities of Natural Gas [view article]
- Friday Outlook: Financials' Time to Shine? [view article]
- Filling Up on Natural Gas [view article]
- Oil and Natural Gas Due for a Pullback? [view article]
- Recent Key ETF Performance [view article]
- Commodity ETFs: Steel and Natural Gas Outpacing Oil [view article]
loading ...Recent UNG Articles
- Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (5/12/08)
- ETF Update: Use Oil, Gold ETFs to Offset Gas Price Increases
- Commodities: Bubble or Not?
- SEC Selloff - Fast Money (5/7/08)
- Overbought and Oversold ETFs
- Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (5/1/08)
- Friday Outlook: Financials' Time to Shine?
- Recent Key ETF Performance
- Oil and Natural Gas Due for a Pullback?
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Full List of Articles »
Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (5/12/08) [view article]
Thanx, guys very interesting as always.The oil chart looks very orderly compared to some of the others. Reply
Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
I appreciate the compliment from StateofCon, but I must respond to his comments on population growth:Population growth in the USA is (fortunately) a bit above maintenance; it has declined over the last couple decades. Our growth is in large part due to peoples who have come here from other countries...both illegially and legally. (In fact, it is because we need population growth to support our economy, that our government, either democrat or republican, will only give lip service to border enforcement).
Europe is in a much more serious situation with respect to population -- many European countries, including Italy!, have declining populations. European social welfare costs are going to become staggering in a few years.
Yes, we do have a few Mormons here, and they do tend to have large families; however, their contribution to our population growth is not significant. Reply
Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
CrossingTheT, you are incorrect.Democratically elected governments go to war whenever they damn well feel like it. They just have the additional hurdle of convincing their population that there is a clear and present danger that has to be dealt with. Once you have the population believing in whatever boogeyman you've created, you can get them to do pretty much anything you want them to do. As an example of this, look at Hitler's rise to power. He didn't slash and burn his way to the top. He got the people to believe in him and they WILLINGLY gave him all the power he wanted.
The same thing has happened many times throughout history, even in democratic regimes. And, more than likely, it will continue to happen many years into the future. Our current set of "problems" we have started over 50 years ago when we decided that securing our oil supply was more important than some nations soverignty (Iran), so we decided to help overthrow a democratically elected government (in Iran) and replaced it with the Shah (made Saddam look like a cute cuddly teddy bear). Yeah, couldn't see that one coming back to bite us on the ass.
Nuclear war? For what? What would they gain? The point of any sort of resource war is to capture the the resource. Nuclear weapons do not capture anything, thy destroy. What good is an oil field if it is irradiated to the point of lethality for the next 10000 years? Nuclear weapons are used for mass destruction of infrastructure (cities, manufacturing centers), production (people who work there), military centers (bases and such), and under certain conditions ship and troop conglomerations. Nukes are really a useless weapon unless you're talking about obliteration. Annihilating a country gains you little. Sure you have a victory but then what? A radiated wasteland full of charred remains is hardly what one would call a spoil of war.
There is no bubble. But there is a series of events which have happened at the right time to jack prices. The dollar has lost a good percentage of its value, which in turn drives up the price. There is also an increased demand. In some cases, there is ample supply but there isn't enough infrastructure to move it around or refine it. Whenever there is a bottleneck in a supply chain, the prices will go up.
PaulTaut, you have no idea what you're saying. Suspending EPA regulations for refineries? Do you have the slightest idea how dangerous the chemicals are coming out of a refinery? Let me guess, as long as thy don't build it near you it's okay, right? Even with the regs, no one wants to be near a refinery and they still pollute the environment.
So in summary, we have a decreasing currency, and increasing demand. In some cases, we have the supply but lack the infrastructure to move it/refine it. All that leads to higher prices. Bu don't kid yourself. A good chunk of that profit your seeing isn't profit, it's just offsetting inflation.
~X~
Reply
Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
The conspiracy theory says that oil prices are set politically behind the scenes, and the current run-up is meant to pay back the gulf states for bailing out our failing banks. Thoughts on this? ReplyCommodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
To those above who blame the Iraq War for high oil prices should read one of the pieces on STRATFOR once in a while.The real reason for the Invasion of Iraq was to make sure, that Iran never ever controls the oil reserves of Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates.
Iran obviously tries to gain influence over the countries of the region from Lebanon to Pakistan.
If you think the Invasion of Iraq is responsible for the rise in oil, think how high the oil price would be, if Iran would control the bulk of the worlds oil reserves.
Democratically elected governments don't go to war unless they absolutely have to, for the peoples of the world hate wars. Since the goal of every politician is to get reelected, it is illogical to think they go to war for the fun of it. Reply
Jackson, SA
Founder
Commodity ETFs and ETNs [view article]
Update: We just added the new Platinum long and short ETFs to the list, and re-organized the Further Reading section to make it more informative. Replye.com
Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
Whats hot for Monday?www.investorslive.com/blog/2008/05/break... / Reply
e.com
Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
Whats hot for Monday?www.investorslive.com/blog/2008/05/break... / Reply
sion
Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
Phillips, richjoy and others have stated reality well.What is lost in these discussions is the population explosion which was warned about and was openly discussed in the late 80's and early 90's (I think). Now, you rarely hear this discussed because religious groups only gain power by having lots of kids. This is true of Islam and Mormons (I know one Mormon that has 10 kids) and some other fundamental groups. Growing population demands more of everything and we do have limits on providing them as well as accomodating the pollution and waste.
Climate change (regardless of cause), demand, resource limits will drive competition for energy and food. The US government continues to allow high immigration here and this will create more problems of us.
Idiotic policies (when did Bush ever promote anything but more oil and finally corn ethanol?), the Iraq war, huge deficits, illegal immigration, too much legal immigration, etc. are destroying the economic super power. Most countries (in the west at least) want the US to shoulder world burdens while they work on their economy.
We can't control world population but we can control ours. It may be too late with all the religious, latino activist groups and political pandering, to save ourselves. Because of the above issues, we need population growth control, massive investment in renewable energy, conservation and a ban on development of farm land to have a chance. It may not be a straight line up but commodities and energy will stay in demand for a long time to come. In the U.S., Bush will be known as a destroyer of worlds, ours. Reply
Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
OPEC is working very hard to produce only what is necessary to meet demand. They can keep oil prices at current levels for the foreseeable future. Some nations, including the USA have already reached peak oil production and output is in decline.The dot com bubble was based on speculation over assets and demand that existed only in the minds of the participants. The real estate bubble was based on demand for tangable but optional assets, that are worth only what someone else was willing to pay for them.
Natural resources are very real needs, the demand is very real, and the supply is limited and controlled. It is not in the suppliers best interest to flood the market with product.
There may be some froth due to speculation, but bubble, I think not.
I like investments with solid demand for products that people NEED, where there is limited supply that provides some pricing power, with limited competition and high prospects for continued growth. For me, oil, natural gas, oil field services, pipelines and distribution, metals, mining, mining equipment, seed, fertilzer, weed and pest control all satisfy these criteria and in my opinion are the investments to be in for the long haul because a growing world needs these things. Reply
Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
Ethanol is a POX on our economy. End the subsidy now and for all farm subsidies.As for Nuke wars, etc. Climate change trumps all. LATimes Opinion front page 5-11-08 "Civilization's Last Chance" is a recent recap of the situation.
USA will not be able to plant the corn crop in time this year and a 7% shortfall is predicted. It is still too cold, or too wet to plant.
Our largest demand for oil is for diesel that runs our transportation system and it runs 24/7: trucking, trains, farm equipment. Gasoline is secondary.
I'm long on oil, but have been taking profits during the past month's run-up. Reply
Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
BUbble, but currently (and I don't know when) if think it will deflate instead of burst. ReplyCommodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
Global demand for oil exceeds supply by 1 billion barrels daily; thus the price goes up.Some seem to (still) cling to the belief that gasoline demand in the USA influences price. For them, it seems there is no better wake-up than that gasoline demand is actually falling here (down by 7%), while the global price of oil is still rising.
If GLOBAL demand falls, it will first bring demand back to even with supply; than if there is a further falling of demand can bring down the price of oil significantly.
In the face of global growth in living standards, conservation can only produce limited (and temporary) results. I'm betting on increased demand (and thus prices) until alternative sources are actually widely implemented. Reply
Common Sense
Commodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
I believe this year's 'summer driving season' has been canceled due to budget constraints. ReplyCommodities: Bubble or Not? [view article]
The price of oil is not determined from week to week. At the end of the year it will become clear, why oil is so expensive.(Remember Q$ 07/ 10 big ass draws in a row)All those above, who call this a bubble based on the supply and demand of the last few weeks, have no idea whatsoever of how the oil markets works, how refineries work. Why and when they do their maintenance. And why they buy oil now, while they are doin' maintenance. Because fellas, when driving season is underway 125$ will be bargain.
Since markets discount future events, it is not surprising that oil goes up.
What is surprising is the extent of the move. May be they take 10 bucks of the price next week, who knows.
But the general trend is justified.
To all who complain about the price of oil. You all do still fill up your cars and heat your homes do you. So, it can't be too expensive.
And: The world is bigger than the United States. As in the Goldman&Sachs piece: gasoline is no longer the dominating factor in oil. Reply