United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG)

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  • commenter
    Donald E.
    L. Johnson
    May 29 08:41 AM
    My Website
    Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Charts download fine on Mac Safari.

    This is a great series of charts that should be part of your daily review. I'm going to create the same list in stockcharts.com.     Reply
  • commenter
    A von
    Altendorf
    May 29 08:19 AM
    My Website
    Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    David's commentary is a favorite, highly informative. Reply
  • commenter
    Crudeman
    May 29 08:16 AM
    Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Has anybody else had probs downloading the charts?? Blank yesterday and today on both Mozilla and Int Exp. Reply
  • commenter
    Pachanguero
    May 29 08:13 AM
    Smells Good: The Case for Natural Gas [view article]
    Very nice! However I must correct you. The policy of BOTH Dems and Repubs for the last THRITY years has got us into this mess Reply
  • commenter
    zenalgorithm
    May 29 07:42 AM
    Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    karchad,
    After you've been trading a while, you'll start to think more like David Fry. The market just doesn't follow fundamentals. TA helps you see where things are being magically forced to. There's too much manipulation going on in the US markets, open your eyes to that possibility.     Reply
  • commenter
    karchad
    May 29 06:22 AM
    Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    All in all, the market isnt exactly down since, say late January. Pretty long time for the doomsdayers to keep hoping it tumbles again. With all this bad news: oil, banks, housing,"inflatio... the market still doesn't tumble. That tells me more than all this phony technical analysis Reply
  • commenter
    paultaut
    May 29 12:57 AM
    Smells Good: The Case for Natural Gas [view article]
    first of all, there are two many good nat. gas plays to list, my favorite is PGH a canroy, second, nat. gas is primarily used by all of the newly and unoccupied homes built in the last 6 years. The surplus everyone is alluding to has been built up primarily by a couple of warm winters(ex. last winter) and ditto on the hurricane front.

    Add in millions of nat. gas guzzlers also known as residential housing, when that puppy finally starts to eat, Nat. gas will again be in short supply.     Reply
  • commenter
    pedriven
    May 28 04:22 PM
    Smells Good: The Case for Natural Gas [view article]
    Curious why you did not include Petrohawk in your list of NG e&p's? Reply
  • commenter
    whidbey
    May 28 12:15 PM
    Smells Good: The Case for Natural Gas [view article]
    I hope you are correct but I have fears of the rate of adoption. Nat gas is a good substitute for oil in many industrial applications. My concern has been the capital costs of conversion of generation plants which has kept coal in demand. Reply
  • commenter
    Thinking
    ahead
    May 28 12:09 PM
    Smells Good: The Case for Natural Gas [view article]
    Fitz: good article. But no mention of NG liquids (propane and butane are the biggest). What is the future for these products? And I was surprised that APC wasn't listed, since it trades at less than 9X PE and it's the second largest NG producer in the US. Reply
  • commenter
    BrucePile
    May 28 12:02 PM
    Smells Good: The Case for Natural Gas [view article]
    In addition to the monstrous advantages you point out for NG over oil, which to recap are:
    1. Over 5 times cheaper per BTU
    2. Much cleaner for the environment, thus much more likely to
    get favorable legislation enacted in any energy policy
    3. Redirects 700 billion dollars a year away from often
    unfriendly foreign governments
    you also have the basic fact that over the next 20 years or so, global gas production, and thus LNG trade, is going to be growing briskly while net exports of oil are going to be accelerating a downtrend already in place! Peak gas is projected to be around 2030 while peak oil is happening now and, more importantly, peak oil exports is probably history already. Just look at a chart of LNG trade and compare it to what net exports of oil have done over the last few years. One is rolling over into a decline per the ELM (Export Land Model) while the other is climbing sharply to a peak decades away.

    Historically, there has always been a tight correlation between oil price and natural gas price because of the rampant interchangability between the two in industry. When gas lags as far behind oil is it is presently doing, there is always a sharp slingshot move in gas to catch up with what oil is doing, which usually overshoots oil briefly. This seems to happens every 3 years or so, and if it happens again, it would take the price of gas to over $25.

    In addition to the usual industrial switchover activity from crude to NG, you are probably going to have a lot of transportation switchover this cycle as well (if Boone Pickens has his way, that is).
    If the Clean Energy model catches on, we could see an unprecedented megacycle in NG versus crude.
    Reply
  • commenter
    sliman
    May 28 11:39 AM
    Smells Good: The Case for Natural Gas [view article]
    Why do you think the natural gas ETF (UNG) is acting better than the stocks? Reply
  • commenter
    The Fitzman
    May 28 11:26 AM
    My Website
    Smells Good: The Case for Natural Gas [view article]
    thanks for the comments.
    elliot: i knew when i wrote the $700 billion comment that someone would point out the technically incorrect source of our imports. that said, my point was that oil is a global market and saudia arabia and russia are the two largest producers. the lack of a comprehensive US energy policy has led to huge inefficiencies, higher US oil consumption than necessary, and therefore higher prices - all of which have greatly benefited SA and russia. the falling dollar due to recent US fiscal policies have also played right into their hands.

    i realize that LNG has not caught on in the US, which i alluded to in the article. the point i was trying to make is that "IF" the US had a comprehensive energy policy, we would be (or at least SHOULD be) encouraging the greater use of natural gas in the transportation sector, granting licenses to construct LNG plants, and be building the infrastructure for greater use of LNG sourced nat gas. the magnitude of the energy crisis facing the US due to crude oil is such that we will need ALL alternate sources of energy - natural gas is a "natural". that said, if congress's questioning of the oil execs the other day was any indication...i won't hold my breath for a sane energy policy any time soon....     Reply
  • commenter
    Elliot
    Miller
    May 28 11:02 AM
    Smells Good: The Case for Natural Gas [view article]
    One slight correction. The "giant sucking sound of $700 billion a year leaving the US " does not go primarily to the Middle East and Russia. Our number one source of crude is Canada and will be for the foreseeable future. Our number two source is Mexico at least until the Canterall field depletes (expected in 8 years). Our number three source is Venezuela (not better than Russia or the Middle East but the fact is that it is our number three source). Saudi Arabia is our fourth largest source of oil. And the amount we send abroad is $660 billion, not $700 billion. Otherwise an excellent article, but it should be emphasized that LNG shipments are being swooped up by Asia and Europe before the tankers ever arrive here (or even leave Qatar) and the new Cheniere regas facility in La. is operating below capacity. Reply
  • commenter
    User 22706
    May 28 10:00 AM
    Smells Good: The Case for Natural Gas [view article]
    Helmerich & Payne (HP) is a better energy services play than Nabors. Its FlexRigs and newer fleet leave it better positioned. Reply

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