United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG)

All Comments on UNG

  • commenter
    batmando
    Jul 25 10:25 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Gabe -

    NBER sez:
    "The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. For more information, see the latest announcement on how the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee chooses turning points in the Economy and its latest memo, dated 07/17/03." www.nber.org/cycles.ht...

    Don't know about you, but I not buying a new SUV or Ford-150 pick-up this year (or next).
    The corn mill machinery manufacturer for whom I do tech writing isn't seeing new orders (domestic or export).

    Just had to reduce the rent on a rental despite all those foreclosed, previous home owners forced into the rental market.

    DHL likely to close its hub in Wilmington OH (6,000more unemployed).

    NASCAR fans still going to the races, yes, but camping and grilling out instead of staying in hotels and eating out.

    So a consumer-led recovery not likely.

    If I were a foreign investor I likely wait for more of the trillion dollar (or mote) write-downs to find their way out of the financials woodwork. In the meantime, I'm just sitting on my hands for a spell rather jump into a "bargain" U.S. equities.     Reply
  • commenter
    painter
    Jul 25 10:02 AM
    My Website
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Dear Mr. Fry: Your graphs are extremely helpful. Please keep up your fine work. Reply
  • commenter
    User 86999
    Jul 25 09:43 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Major banks are being taken over by the government, and you call them "perceived problems"? No wonder, we need to stay away from TV - bloomberg or not. Reply
  • commenter
    gabe
    borenstein
    Jul 25 09:21 AM
    My Website
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Andy,in June of 2005 ,in an interviewwith Mark Gilbert(Bloomberg- London),I have predicted the current "turmoil".On September 18 ,2007 in an interview with Brian Sullivan (Bloomberg -TV),I have again warned about the subprime problems that are about to derail economy.
    Now ,I wil say the following .The recession is defined as two consecutive quarterly declines in the GDP-we are not there. The Treasury ,the FED and the Admiinistration have addressed perceived problems which will take time to work.I suppose additional easing is needed as another round of the fiscal stimulous.While economic deceleration is unnerving ,we are not in a recession.
    It is likely that Emerging economies (record leverage) and Europe (high rates)will implode first creating massive inflows into the dollar assets ,further contributing to the U.S recovery.     Reply
  • commenter
    jr7107
    Jul 25 09:12 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    David, thanks for the work. The content is excellent. The point about staying away from the TV pundits is critical. If you listen to it long enough you may actually start believing it. Reply
  • commenter
    Blue collar
    guy
    Jul 25 09:02 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Some will say my "handle" is entirely appropriate for my comments; however, since I am not a "chart man" and pretty lacking in mkt. knowledge to boot, we seem to have a significant difference of thought between the article writer and the two fellas commenting b4 myself.
    Can someone please tell me with some high degree of reliability, whether I am going to make money the rest of the year in the following stocks...(ABB;APC; MON; MTL; POT; RIG)? The variables involved in forecasting seem to me to be so many and so staggering and loaded with such abundant contradiction as well as potential for disaster on a world wide basis...financial and otherwise, it's easy to think that I should run for the nearest gold source and never look back. On the hand, I don't think I can eat gold or put a roof over my head, with stuff that is all that heavy. When and if the mkt gets that bad, an MK 47, body armor, and supply of C rations might be the only tkt. to survival.     Reply
  • commenter
    Andy Cole
    Jul 25 08:49 AM
    My Website
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Gabe, how can you even argue that we are not in a recession? Nearly every economic indicator for the past six months has clearly been saying otherwise. I'm sorry, but you are terribly wrong. Reply
  • commenter
    gabe
    borenstein
    Jul 25 08:25 AM
    My Website
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    The stock market has been in decline basically since mid 2007.To say that it is overbought (short term technicals) is ridiculous. To say that it is very volatile is another story.We are making a major bottom.All of the key concerns are being addressed and will contribute to a major economic rebound in the period ahead .While getting there ,we will continue to be subjected to half truths and the bearish opinions.No, we are not in a recession.
    At this point in time we need to overcome the market psychosis reinforced by the psudo economists at a major financial news TV station.
    The continuous barrage of distorted perceptions about financial sector only enhances market paranoia. Last year was the time to short that sector.Now we need time to allow corrective measures to address the issues.
    Yes,volatility will continue and every rally will be followed by a degree of sell off in the stock market .
    In retrospect this will be viewed as a buying opportunity.
    At 14,000 (Dow),CNBC had almost a party celebrating the arrival of the bullmarket-the market had crashed.
    When the Dow broke 11,000 we were told about arrival of the new bearish trend.
    That is another why major rally lies ahead.     Reply
  • commenter
    starvin
    sargent
    Jul 25 06:54 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    David, You have been around awhile. When you see such action based on moving averages and other technical indicators that is evidence of a traders market right? So all we need do during this time is make money trading against the pundits who bring in the dumb money. Technically is it just movements off of the channels over 100 or 200 DMA that sustain those levels for x days that mean we are no longer bearish? UYG was a prime example of this if you take a look. Many thanks for all you do for us. Reply
  • commenter
    optionsgirl
    Jul 25 12:26 AM
    Does Al Gore Finally Get It? [view article]
    Fitzman- My understanding is that you can't file for the 15% foreign tax credit if it is held in a retirement account ( not sure if that includes a Roth IRA). Do you know if that is true? regards. Reply
  • commenter
    paultaut
    Jul 24 11:56 PM
    Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (7/23/08) [view article]
    What declines? Producers are still playing catch up to last year's increases.

    only one of the above charts is lower year over year, the wheat contract only provides 7 months of activity.     Reply
  • commenter
    robc935
    Jul 24 07:48 PM
    Is Natural Gas Down for the Count? [view article]
    Please keep in mind while you argue about how much money you can make off of N.Gas that most of the northern half of this country heats with N.Gas and heating costs have aready tripled in the past 5 years. 80,000 customers in Minnesota had their utilities cut off April 1 this year because they couldn't pay their bills over the winter months. Combined with higher (auto)gas and food prices, the number of cut offs could be in the millions next winter. The same goes for home heating oil. Elderly people on fixed incomes don't the room for high heating costs, I believe that N.Gas should be off limits for investors looking to make a fast buck, stick to messing with the other commodities. Reply
  • commenter
    NutritionFac
    ts
    Jul 24 05:27 PM
    Natural Gas Volatility Spiking [view article]
    Huge spike down today on the storage numbers. Looks for all the world like a blow-off bottom in the price and corresponding blow-off top in the volatility of NG alluded to above. Reply
  • commenter
    longoil
    Jul 24 03:20 PM
    Does Al Gore Finally Get It? [view article]
    Fitzman,

    Thanks for the detailed reply.

    There are not too many options to store electricity effectively from wind or solar sources. There is already a shortage of key elements (i.e. lithium) used in battery production for hybrid cars (e.g. the Prius), so batteries are not a good option on a large scale. Ultracapacitors might be a good energy storage medium, but I believe the technology is still in its infancy.

    I do enjoy your articles, keep up the great work !!
    I look forward to your Pickens article.     Reply
  • commenter
    The FItzman
    Jul 24 02:04 PM
    My Website
    Does Al Gore Finally Get It? [view article]
    longoil: thanks for your feedback. wrt hydrogen, i have seen some system designs where wind energy is used to generate electricity which is used to electrolysis which then generates hydrogen, at least in areas where water is cheap and available. hydrogen of this form could be used for many things:
    1) it effectively "stores" the energy created by wind for use in those times when the wind doesn't blow
    2) it is a potential for transportation, yet today, i agree is not cost effective or very user friendly.
    to ignore an "energy" element like hydrogen, that is in such abundance in the universe, would be a mistake IMHO

    wrt drilling: i didn't want to drill either, and i didn't want to use nuclear either. the problem is, we as a country have wasted sooo much time getting an energy plan together and implemented, we are facing economic ruin. from my analysis, we are going to need every bit of energy, from all sources (including nuclear and CS oil) in order to keep the economy from imploding. perhaps i am just a pesimist on the matter, but i started this rant 4 years ago, and everything i have seen (falling US dollar, an S&P500 that has been dead money, rising inflation, and of course, skyrocketing energy prices) simply reinforce my condidence that i am correct. it helps that pickens, mulva, and the CEO's of royal dutch, hess, and dow chemical are now saying similar things.

    wrt respect to al gore, your comments and others to this thread effectively prove the point of my article: al gore and his advocates for whatever reasons are divisive - many people just don't buy it due to al himself, the science which they question, or whatever reason. the foreign oil economic argument is something more people will respond to. read my latest submission to SA to see why the pickens approach is better (if they publish it).

    let's just agree to disagree on al. were it not for his efforts to publicize this crisis (i.e. a doer), alot of us might still be in the dark, or at least many years behind. look how far behind we are in spite of all his work. also, i am sure pickens has a big house or two himself :)     Reply
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