Q3 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

October 30, 2009 11:00 am ET

• Economy surges back to growth. Stocks logged their best one-day gain in three months on Thursday after the U.S. economy returned to growth in Q3. The government's first estimate of GDP showed the economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.5%, the first growth quarter in more than a year, and well ahead of Street estimates of 3%, sending Treasury prices and the dollar lower as traders exited safe havens. As recently as last week economists had called for a 3.3% gain, but they pared their estimates in the past couple days after week durable goods sales data came up short. "The economy has emerged with gusto from the deepest recession since WWII," one economist said. "The short-term prospects for the economy remain good."
• Private sector must lead the way - Geithner. The return to GDP growth is encouraging but the recovery is still fragile, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said at a Q&A session Thursday evening following yesterday's Q3 GDP announcement. "The number today was really encouraging... it was broad and strong and it wasn't just cash-for-clunkers and it wasn't just economic stimulus... but it's important to remember that it's very early," he said. Geithner stressed that a robust recovery would have to be led by the private sector, saying the U.S. can't borrow-and-spend its way to health.
• Repsol strikes again. Repsol (REP), long derided as the oil company with no oil, will today announce a "fairly sizeable" discovery in the Gulf of Mexico's Shenzi field that it says will help reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Today's discovery comes on top of big finds in Brazil and West Africa, and leaves Repsol with the unexpected challenge of developing a sudden surge in oil and gas resources. "We've had some success in exploration," CEO Antonio Brufau said.
• CIT, Goldman adjust $3B credit line. CIT Group (CIT) reached an agreement with Goldman Sachs (GS) to amend a $3B loan facility, ending their dispute over a $1B "make whole" payment CIT would have owed Goldman if it files for bankruptcy. Goldman will reduce the loan size to $2.13B, wiping out the unused portion of the facility, for which CIT will pay Goldman a $285M penalty, and post an additional $250M of collateral. The announcement, made in an 8-K filing, comes two days after CIT raised an additional $4.5B to bolster its restructuring.
• Rio Tinto doubles capex. A confident Rio Tinto (RTP) doubled its planned 2010 capital spend to at least $5B after it cut debt and saw signs of economic recovery. Rio had planned to cut capex to $2.5B - just enough to sustain current mines. "We will continue our program of cost reduction and debt repayments, but our renewed strength enables us to focus on disciplined capital expenditure on premier growth options," CEO Tom Albanese said. Rio, the world's #3 mining group, said it had cut its debt by 42% so far this year to $22.3B. (statement)
• EDF/Constellation deal at risk. State-owned nuclear power operator EDF is facing pressure from the French government to abandon its $4.5B deal to buy 49.9% of Constellation Energy Group's (CEG) nuclear assets and build four reactors with the U.S. company. "For us, the priority strategy for EDF is indeed in Europe, notably the U.K. and Italy, and everything outside Europe is less essential to EDF's expansion," an unnamed government official said.
• Credit crunch continues. Loan defaults by small and medium-sized U.S. businesses rose in September to 0.85% from 0.81% in August, according to risk management firm PayNet, but accounts in moderate (30 days plus) and severe (90 days plus) delinquency decreased to 4.22% (from 4.35%) and 1.4% (from 1.48%) respectively, the lowest since January. PayNet's Small Business Lending Index, which measures the volume of financing, is down 22% from a year ago, a sign lenders remain reluctant to extend credit to small and medium-sized businesses. "It's hard to imagine a robust recovery when you see numbers like this," PayNet founder Bill Phelan said.
• BoJ holds steady. The Bank of Japan left its key rate unchanged at 0.1%, but said it would discontinue its corporate bond and commercial paper purchase program at the end of December, as scheduled - "given that issuing conditions in the CP and corporate bond markets have been improving markedly, and thus the purpose of the purchases to restore market functioning has been achieved." Still, the BoJ stressed that this doesn't signal the beginning of its exit strategy, and extended its special lending facility to provide three-month funds at 0.1% until the end of March. Remarking on the decision to scrap its corporate funding support, Japan's PM Yukio Hatoyama remarked that it's hard to be as optimistic as the BoJ. (statement)
• House Energy and Commerce Committee OKs consumer agency. A second House panel voted Thursday to create a Consumer Financial Protection Agency to oversee mortgages, credit cards and other financial products, with a full House vote expected in November. The House bill falls short of the administration's original proposal, exempting auto dealers, credit, mortgage and title insurers and banks with less than $10B in assets, among others - exceptions some worry will weaken the agency's power.
• Sands gets OK for $2-3B IPO. Sources say Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has received approval from the Hong Kong stock exchange for a $2-3B IPO of its Macau unit. Sands will kick off pre-marketing next week, and launch its roadshow on Nov. 9, with a trading debut set for the end of November. Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C) and UBS (UBS) are coordinating. LVS rose 12% Thursday after posting a surprise Q3 profit; shares are up another 12% premarket.
• Junk bond rally becomes self-fulfilling. Demand for junk bonds hit record highs last week, with investors pouring another $207M into junk bond funds, pushing YTD inflows to a record $27.8B. Junk bond indexes are up more than 50% YTD, as investors become more comfortable with risk. The growing cash flow enables shaky companies to head off default - adding more fuel to the rally.
• AIG won't sell Japan units. AIG (AIG) says it will not sell its two Japanese insurers, AIG Edison Life Insurance and AIG Star Life Insurance, reversing its decision from a year ago at the height of the crisis. AIG said in a statement it now believes it would improve its corporate value to keep the two Japanese units, which have a very firm financial base and strong sales network.
• Energy IPO runs out of steam. Former Enron unit AEI, which operates power and gas distribution lines in Latin America, canceled its IPO Thursday hours after it slashed the size of the deal by two-thirds in the face of weak demand. The IPO, managed by Goldman Sachs (GS), Credit Suisse (CS), Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan (JPM), is the first U.S.-listed IPO this year to be withdrawn after an attempt to price the offering. AEI faulted market conditions for the withdrawal, but analysts say its debt load, risk exposure and expected payout to its private-equity owners also raised concerns.
• ChiNext soars on debut. China's Nasdaq-lookalike ChiNext stock market launched trading Friday with strong gains. An initial 28 companies listed, and shares gained 46-123% from their IPO prices, in line with expectations. The listees priced their IPOs at a hefty 56x 2008 earnings.

Earnings: Fri. Before Open

• Alcatel-Lucent (ALU): Q3 net loss of €182M vs. -€174.4M consensus. Sales of €3.69B (-9.3%) vs. €3.88B consensus. Says it has achieved 80% of its goal to reduce annual expenses by €750M. Shares -2.9% premarket. (PR)
• Ameren (AEE): Q3 EPS of $1.16 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $1.82B (-11.9%) vs. $2.1B. (PR)
• American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL): Q3 EPS of -$0.18 beats by $0.20. Revenue of $410M (-22.4%) vs. $420M. Shares -1.4% premarket. (PR)
• Aon (AOC): Q3 EPS of $0.65 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $1.81B (-2.1%) in-line. (PR)
• Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIV): Q3 FFO of -$0.35 in-line. Revenue of $319M (-7.3%) vs. $313M. (PR)
• Arch Coal (ACI): Q3 EPS of $0.16 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $615M (-20.1%) vs. $605M. Shares +3.9% premarket. (PR)
• Chevron (CVX): Q3 EPS of $1.72 beats by $0.25. Revenue of $46.63B (-40.9%) vs. $47.84B. "In our downstream operations, we continued to experience weak margins on the sale of gasoline and other refined products. Weak demand and plentiful supply affected all our major markets." Shares +0.7% premarket. (PR)
• CMS Energy (CMS): Q3 EPS of $0.32 misses by $0.02. (PR)
• Constellation Energy Group (CEG): Q3 EPS of $1.23 beats by $0.16. Revenue of $4.03B vs. $4.48B. Sees full-year EPS of $3.25-3.45 vs. consensus of $3.10. (PR)
• Coventry Health Care (CVH): Q3 EPS of $0.68 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $3.44B (+17.7%) in-line. Shares +2.4% premarket. (PR)
• Cummins (CMI): Q3 EPS of $0.56 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $2.53B (-31.5%) in-line. “While we saw improvement in some markets in the third quarter, we expect the economic climate to remain challenging until late 2010 - especially in the U.S. and Europe.” (PR)
• Dominion Resources (D): Q3 EPS of $0.99 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $3.65B (-16.4%) vs. $3.94B. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.55-0.65 vs. $0.67. (PR)
• Duke Energy (DUK): Q3 EPS of $0.40 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $3.4B (-3.2%) vs. $3.8B. "Industrial sales volumes continued to show signs of stabilization." (PR)
• Estee Lauder (EL): FQ1 EPS of $0.85 beats by $0.51. Revenue of $1.83B (-3.7%) in-line. Shares +4.5% premarket. (PR)
• ITT Industries (ITT): Q3 EPS of $1.03 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $2.7B (-6.3%) in-line. (PR)
• NYSE Euronext (NYX): Q3 EPS of $0.53 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $1.05B (-9.6%) in-line. Announces equity investment in its U.S. futures exchange by Citadel, GETCO, Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and UBS (UBS), with NYX to remain largest shareholder. (PR I, II)
• Penske Auto Group (PAG): Q3 EPS of $0.34 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $2.59B (-12.9%) in-line. Shares (PR)
• Progress Energy (PGN): Q3 EPS of $1.22 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $2.82B (+4.7%) in-line. (PR)
• Regency Centers (REG): Q3 FFO of $0.69 in-line. (PR)
• Simon Property Group (SPG): Q3 FFO of $1.38 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $925M (-1.1%) vs. $892M. Shares -0.4% premarket. (PR)
• Sony (SNE): FQ2 net loss of ¥26.3B ($287.5M) vs. consensus of -¥40.4B. Revenue of ¥1.66T (-20%). Sees full-year net loss of ¥95B, up from a previous forecast of -¥120B and -¥98.9B last year. Sees sales -5.6%, unchanged. (PR)
• Tim Hortons (THI): Q3 EPS of C$0.34 misses by C$0.12. Revenue of C$564M (+10.7%) vs. C$552M. (PR)
• Ultra Petroleum (UPL): Q3 EPS of $0.57 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $155M (-47.8%) vs. $239M. (PR)
• Weyerhaeuser (WY): Q3 EPS of -$0.26 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $1.41B (-33.2%) in-line. (PR)

Earnings: Thur. After Close

• AllianceBernstein (AB): Q3 EPS of $0.67 beats by $0.22. Revenue of $806M (-5%) vs. $737M. AUM down 16% Y/Y to $498B. Shares +3.8% AH. (PR)
• Bally Technologies (BYI): FQ1 EPS of $0.53 in-line. Revenue of $197M (-17%) vs. $206M. Shares +0.6% AH. (PR)
• BMC Software (BMC): FQ2 EPS of $0.66 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $462M (-1%) vs. $463M. Raises full-year EPS guidance to $2.55-2.65 vs. $2.51. Shares +1.8% AH. (PR)
• Callaway Golf Company (ELY): Q3 EPS of -$0.25 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $191M (-11%) in-line. Sees full-year EPS of -$0.30 to -$0.35, vs. -$0.21. (PR)
• Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF): Q3 EPS of $0.45 may not compare to estimate of -$0.07. Revenue of $666M (-44%) vs. $535M. Shares +4.5% AH. (PR)
• DTE Energy Company (DTE): Q3 EPS of $0.96 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $2B (-16%) vs. $2.1B. Sees full-year EPS of $2.75-3.05 vs. $3.19. Shares -7.7% AH. (PR)
• Eldorado Gold (EGO): Q3 EPS of $0.08 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $82M (-20.3%) vs. $85M. Shares +0.7% AH. (PR)
• Genworth Financial (GNW): Q3 net income available to common shareholders of $0.04 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $2.4B (+10%) vs. $2.5B. Shares +9.7% AH. (PR)
• Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ): Q3 EPS of $0.15 misses by $0.09. Revenue of $2B (-16%) in-line. Raises full-year EPS guidance to $0.21-0.23 from $0.12-0.15, vs. $0.20. Shares +2.9% AH. (PR)
• Human Genome Sciences (HGSI): Q3 EPS of -$0.32 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $19M (+61%) vs. $24M. Shares +0.9% AH. (PR)
• Ingram Micro (IM): Q3 EPS of $0.25 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $7.4B (-11%) vs. $6.7B. Shares +2.4% AH. (PR)
• KLA-Tencor (KLAC): FQ1 EPS of $0.15 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $343M (-36%) vs. $332M. Shares +0.8% AH. (PR)
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS): Q3 EPS of $0.03 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $1.1B (+3%) in-line. Shares +8.4% AH. (PR)
• Manitowoc (MTW): Q3 EPS of -$0.04 misses by $0.12. Revenue of $882M (-20%) vs. $934M. Shares -7.2% AH. (PR)
• Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM): FQ1 EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $449M (-12%) vs. $438M. Shares -4% AH. (PR)
• McAfee (MFE): Q3 EPS of $0.62 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $485M (+19%) vs. $487M. Shares -5.8% AH. (PR)
• MetLife (MET): Q3 EPS of $0.87 in-line. Revenue of $12.4B (-1%) vs. $12.3B. Shares -2.3% AH. (PR)
• Mohawk Industries (MHK): Q3 EPS of $0.64 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $1.4B (-22%) in-line. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.28-0.38 vs. $0.45. Shares -5.3% AH. (PR)
• PEPCO Holdings (POM): Q3 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $2.5B (-17%) vs. $2.9B. (PR)
• PerkinElmer (PKI): Q3 EPS of $0.30 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $437M (-9%) vs. $430M. Sees full-year EPS of $1.23-1.26 vs. $1.22. (PR)
• RealNetworks (RNWK): Q3 EPS of $0.00 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $140M (-8%) vs. $141M. (PR)
• Regal Entertainment Group (RGC): Q3 EPS of $0.05 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $674M (-11%) vs. $702M. Shares +0.3% AH. (PR)
• SBA Communications (SBAC): Q3 EPS of -$0.43 misses by $0.17. Revenue of $139M (+17%) in-line. Sees 2010 sales of $512M-532M vs. $604M. Shares -1.3% AH. (PR)
• Southwestern Energy Company (SWN): Q3 EPS of $0.34 in-line. Revenue of $503M (-26%) vs. $387M. Shares +0.2% AH. (PR)
• Standard Pacific (SPF): Q3 EPS of -$0.01 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $327M (-18%) vs. $285M. Shares +3.4% AH. (PR)
• Varian Medical Systems (VAR): FQ4 EPS of $0.78 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $642M (+8%) vs. $593M. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.52-0.56 vs. $0.60, and full-year EPS of $2.65-2.75 vs. $2.61. Shares -2.3% AH. (PR)

Today's Markets

Overseas markets were mixed Friday, with strong gains in Japan and China, but some weakness in Europe early on. Futures have moved lower overnight.

Ultra Petroleum (UPL), Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), AIG (AIG), Boeing (BA), Honeywell (HON), Citigroup (C), AIG (AIG), Precision Castparts (PCP), Alcoa (AA)

While Cramer doesn't think the Dow will reach 10,300, he doesn't agree with Doug Kass that investors should give up on the idea of making profits in the remaining months of 2009 and sell stocks. While job losses, consumer debt and the rising government deficit are not exactly bullish signs, Cramer does not believe in standing at the sidelines; “There’s just not enough bad to trigger that kind of sell-off."

By Brandon Clay

“How much do you make?” It’s one of those taboo questions that usually goes unasked during polite dinner conversation. But after a few beers, the vocal chords are often limbered enough to divulge family secrets. Tax return numbers may slip off the tongue. Even so, such private matters are usually not shouted to the whole room. That’s in the real world.

Q2 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

August 4, 2009 11:00 am ET

Sentiment

Stocks opened lower following disappointing earnings news from the financial industry, but have since bounced back and are trading mixed late Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened lower after a number of financial names -- Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of New York Mellon (BK) -- slipped on earnings news and some investors "banked" profits following a seven-day winning streak for the equity market.

However, the early losses proved short-lived and the major averages were higher midday thanks in part to Apple Computer (AAPL). Shares are up 3.2 percent after AAPL reported better-than-expected earnings on surging iPhone sales. Meanwhile, Boeing (BA) helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average after reporting quarterly earnings of $1.41 per share, and 20 cents better than Street estimates.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Ultra Petroleum (UPL), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Adobe (ADBE), Intuit (INTU), Huntsman (HUN), Deutsche Bank (DB)

As posted in my blog, historically oil and gas both peak in the summer months. As we can see from last year's chart, oil peaked in mid July.

If you are slightly bullish or think the market will move sideways in the months to come, you may find it useful to use the buy/write strategy. I have been using this with various stocks over the past month, writing them out for the nearest expiration or next expiration.

To learn more about buy/write option strategies check out my BLOG.

In March, Jim Jubak of MSN Money released a list of stocks that he believed should be stocks that you should pay attention to in the upcoming months/quarters as potentially attractive investment opportunities. ValueExpectations.com set out to answer the question, which stocks on Jim’s watch list look attractive according to AFG’s valuation model and should be on your watch list?

Provided in the table below are Jubak’s watch list companies and how they fare from a valuation perspective using The Applied Finance Group’s Value Score variable which ranks the valuation attractiveness of each company based on the discrepancy between the company’s current trading price and AFG’s target price.

Q1 2009 Earnings Call

May 6, 2009 11:00 am ET

Natural gas prices have continued to come under pressure and reach new lows, while crude oil has sharply rebounded from its lows. The North American natural gas market is almost entirely produced within North America, and recent industrial cuts due to the economic recession has caused severe demand destruction. However, unlike many other industrial focused industries, such as coal, steel, and other metals, supply cuts have not been profound among the natural gas producers.

It seems that those cuts may be coming this summer that could cause a very big spike in prices, due to the elasticity of natural gas prices, and large institutional option traders have been positioning for major gains among the companies heavily tied to natural gas.

This is the 4th Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the Hedge Fund 13F filings preface.

Next up is Pequot Capital Management run by Art Samberg. Pequot was founded by Art in 1986 with $3 million in assets and peaked with $15 billion in assets around the tech bubble. Today, he manages over $4 billion. They have 150 employees and employ multiple strategies, including private equity and venture capital, as Art believes equity returns will decline over time. Art holds a S.B. from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, an M.S. from Stanford University, and he received his MBA from Columbia University. Pequot Capital Management was recently ranked 93rd in Alpha's hedge fund rankings. In terms of their 2008 performance, their main fund was -17.5% for 2008, while their health care fund finished -27.9% as noted in our post on hedge fund year-end performance. Recently, we had noted that they amended some 13G filings and made some portfolio changes to a few larger positions. You can also read Pequot's March Commentary here by Byron Wien.

Q4 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

February 18, 2009 11:00 am ET

• Stimulus bill becomes law. Obama signed the $787B economic stimulus package into law yesterday, less than a month after taking office. The signing was accompanied by a relatively upbeat speech in which Obama focused on a positive future and said "we have begun the essential work of keeping the American dream alive in our time." Obama also said the stimulus doesn't "constitute all of what we must do to turn our economy around," and Press Secretary Robert Gibbs added that Obama has not ruled out the possibility of a second stimulus package. (Read Obama's remarks at the signing)
WSB Sponsor
Attention Wall Street Breakfast Readers: Gain invaluable insight from some of the world's most successful investors. Register by 3/1 and save $200 off the Early Bird rate!

Join us at the 4th Annual Value Investing Congress West (May 5&6 in Pasadena, CA) to find out how some of the world's best investors are recouping losses and finding great values in this tumultuous market. To see a full list of speakers, click here.

Bullish Calls:

Wells Fargo (WFC): “If you like Bank of America, you’ll like Wells Fargo even more…they should do even better when the real estate bottom hits.”
Bank of America (BAC)
Best BUY (BBY): "I like Best Buy. There's a new broadband TV due to be announced at the Consumer Electronics Show and that could be a whole new product cycle for Best Buy.”
Google (GOOG): “ …is a decent stock but in the end it's hostage to advertising. That makes it only a mild buy."
Ultra Petroleum (UPL): “Natural gas is done going down, that's my prediction. They are the lowest cost producer. I want to buy Ultra."
Goldman Sachs (GS): “I think they're cheap, their balance sheet is clean and I believe in their CEO. "
Itron (ITRI): "I recommended this one and I've been wrong, but I'm doubling down right here and re-recommending it."
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS): “If you want sporting goods go to Dick’s sporting goods.”