UPS - News and Analysis from Seeking Alpha 'UPS' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ups Analysts Active on First Trading Day of 2010 http://seekingalpha.com/article/180778-analysts-active-on-first-trading-day-of-2010?source=feed 180778 By Bryan McCormick

U.S. stock index futures are higher Monday after a mostly positive session in Asian markets, with mainland China on the downside.

]]> Mon, 04 Jan 2010 12:16:06 -0500 optionMONSTER optionMONSTER submits:

By Bryan McCormick

U.S. stock index futures are higher Monday after a mostly positive session in Asian markets, with mainland China on the downside.


Complete Story »]]> TSO INTC UPS BA MON EMN SONC ANGO MOS FDP BBBY optionMONSTER Financial Crisis? Don't Just Blame the Bankers - Consumer Ignorance Played an Equal Part http://seekingalpha.com/article/179285-financial-crisis-don-t-just-blame-the-bankers-consumer-ignorance-played-an-equal-part?source=feed 179285 A NY Times article titled "In New York, Paying More to Send U.S. Mail at UPS Stores," has me fired up. Now, I know that sarcasm doesn't come across well on the internet sometimes, so I'll try to be explicit.

Posing as customers, reporters for The New York Times visited several U.P.S. stores last week looking to mail an item by Priority Mail — one of the postal service’s signature offerings. In nearly every instance, they were quoted prices well above the government postal rate, and only one of them was told they were paying a premium for the convenience of using a U.P.S. Store.

and then:

“I think there’s a natural assumption on the part of the consumer that if you’re sending something through the U.S. Postal Service, even when it’s from another store, you’re not paying more, and if you are paying more, it’s just a pittance,” said Tod Marks, a senior editor at Consumer Reports.

]]> Tue, 22 Dec 2009 02:19:54 -0500 Kid Dynamite Kid Dynamite submits:
A NY Times article titled "In New York, Paying More to Send U.S. Mail at UPS Stores," has me fired up. Now, I know that sarcasm doesn't come across well on the internet sometimes, so I'll try to be explicit.

Posing as customers, reporters for The New York Times visited several U.P.S. stores last week looking to mail an item by Priority Mail — one of the postal service’s signature offerings. In nearly every instance, they were quoted prices well above the government postal rate, and only one of them was told they were paying a premium for the convenience of using a U.P.S. Store.

and then:

“I think there’s a natural assumption on the part of the consumer that if you’re sending something through the U.S. Postal Service, even when it’s from another store, you’re not paying more, and if you are paying more, it’s just a pittance,” said Tod Marks, a senior editor at Consumer Reports.


Complete Story »]]> UPS Kid Dynamite Comparing Shipping Giants: FedEx vs. UPS http://seekingalpha.com/article/177645-comparing-shipping-giants-fedex-vs-ups?source=feed 177645 By Brandon Clay

On a lethargic day in terms of market action on Monday, the day’s biggest news arrived in the after-hours session when FedEx (FDX) boosted its profit guidance for the current quarter to $1.10 a share from 65-95 cents a share. FedEx cited increased demand for its international and ground shipping services as the catalyst for the robust quarter. Throw in the fact that the holiday shopping season is usually the busiest time of year for FedEx and its chief rival UPS (UPS) and it may be time to take a look at adding one of these stocks to your portfolio.

]]> Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:01:21 -0500 Invest With An Edge Invest With An Edge submits:

By Brandon Clay

On a lethargic day in terms of market action on Monday, the day’s biggest news arrived in the after-hours session when FedEx (FDX) boosted its profit guidance for the current quarter to $1.10 a share from 65-95 cents a share. FedEx cited increased demand for its international and ground shipping services as the catalyst for the robust quarter. Throw in the fact that the holiday shopping season is usually the busiest time of year for FedEx and its chief rival UPS (UPS) and it may be time to take a look at adding one of these stocks to your portfolio.


Complete Story »]]> FDX UPS Invest With An Edge Cramer's Mad Money - Disney Is a Marvel (12/8/09) http://seekingalpha.com/article/177276-cramer-s-mad-money-disney-is-a-marvel-12-8-09?source=feed 177276 Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Tuesday December 8.

Disney (DIS), Marvel Entertainment (MVL)

]]> Wed, 09 Dec 2009 06:48:15 -0500 SA Editor Miriam Metzinger Miriam Metzinger submits:

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Tuesday December 8.

Disney (DIS), Marvel Entertainment (MVL)


Complete Story »]]> DIS MVL M FDX UPS CSX NSC JBLU CAL COST WMT Miriam Metzinger Black Friday CDS/Equity Combos http://seekingalpha.com/article/175624-black-friday-cds-equity-combos?source=feed 175624 Today is “Black Friday”. In an economy where 70% of GDP is a result of consumer spending do you not think the people that name these things could have come up with a little better moniker? Why black? Black because this is the part of the year where retailers finally begin to turn a profit or “move into the black”? Black because the workers in the stores that open ridiculously early and close ridiculously late are in very dark moods by the time the whole thing is over? I am not marketing executive but I would think that if I was going to try to get someone to spend oodles of money I would describe the day on which I propose to do that with a color other than black. Even in New York City where it reigns’s supreme as the color du jour.

For me today is “Black Friday” because I have to start thinking about all the things I have to buy for all those people and figure out exactly who gets what and why. Talk about a dark mood!

]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 09:24:00 -0500 Jim Delaney Jim Delaney submits:

Today is “Black Friday”. In an economy where 70% of GDP is a result of consumer spending do you not think the people that name these things could have come up with a little better moniker? Why black? Black because this is the part of the year where retailers finally begin to turn a profit or “move into the black”? Black because the workers in the stores that open ridiculously early and close ridiculously late are in very dark moods by the time the whole thing is over? I am not marketing executive but I would think that if I was going to try to get someone to spend oodles of money I would describe the day on which I propose to do that with a color other than black. Even in New York City where it reigns’s supreme as the color du jour.

For me today is “Black Friday” because I have to start thinking about all the things I have to buy for all those people and figure out exactly who gets what and why. Talk about a dark mood!


Complete Story »]]> AMZN FDX UPS TGT AXP Jim Delaney Cramer's Mad Money - Fluor is Flourishing (11/24/09) http://seekingalpha.com/article/175228-cramer-s-mad-money-fluor-is-flourishing-11-24-09?source=feed 175228 Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Tuesday November 24.

Off the Charts: Fluor (FLR), Jacobs Engineering (JEC)

]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 06:22:59 -0500 SA Editor Miriam Metzinger Miriam Metzinger submits:

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Tuesday November 24.

Off the Charts: Fluor (FLR), Jacobs Engineering (JEC)


Complete Story »]]> FLR JEC PVH CHK CLD BNI F SWK BMY WLP EMR UPS DELL COST Miriam Metzinger Report from Europe: Stocks Advance as U.S. Dollar Plays Defense http://seekingalpha.com/article/174873-report-from-europe-stocks-advance-as-u-s-dollar-plays-defense?source=feed 174873

Markets generally adopted a slightly more defensive tone on Friday. In the US, utilities and consumer stables managed small gains, but financials, consumer cyclicals and IT fell. Intel (INCT) dropped 2.9%, the steepest retreater in the Dow, as Bank of America said computer-chip supply may overwhelm demand. Dell (DELL) tumbled 7.2% after profit decreased by more than half, and a larger than expected loss at US home builder DR Horton (DHI) hurt their stock. In aggregate, the US market did manage to pare most of the losses, however, after the Labor Department reported a decline in mass layoffs. There was no first tier data. I did note that the ECRI’s weekly leading indicator remains elevated, albeit with signs that it might be rolling over.

Gold surged another $13 in Asia Monday morning to a new high and oil is up on Iranian war games. US stocks look primed for a triple digit day with, of course, basic resource stocks and oil producers likely to be at the vanguard of the move with the weaker Dollar / strong commodities bullish risk assets correlation trade, again. We’ve also just had the Existing Home Sales data which blew expectations out of the water with a 10.1% month on month gain to 6.1 million against expectations of a 2.1% rise to 5.7 million. More BBQ lighter fuel to throw on the bulls fire today.

]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 13:00:44 -0500 The Mole The Mole submits:

Markets generally adopted a slightly more defensive tone on Friday. In the US, utilities and consumer stables managed small gains, but financials, consumer cyclicals and IT fell. Intel (INCT) dropped 2.9%, the steepest retreater in the Dow, as Bank of America said computer-chip supply may overwhelm demand. Dell (DELL) tumbled 7.2% after profit decreased by more than half, and a larger than expected loss at US home builder DR Horton (DHI) hurt their stock. In aggregate, the US market did manage to pare most of the losses, however, after the Labor Department reported a decline in mass layoffs. There was no first tier data. I did note that the ECRI’s weekly leading indicator remains elevated, albeit with signs that it might be rolling over.

Gold surged another $13 in Asia Monday morning to a new high and oil is up on Iranian war games. US stocks look primed for a triple digit day with, of course, basic resource stocks and oil producers likely to be at the vanguard of the move with the weaker Dollar / strong commodities bullish risk assets correlation trade, again. We’ve also just had the Existing Home Sales data which blew expectations out of the water with a 10.1% month on month gain to 6.1 million against expectations of a 2.1% rise to 5.7 million. More BBQ lighter fuel to throw on the bulls fire today.


Complete Story »]]> INTC DELL DHI HPQ MCD CAT UPS T AAPL BBT RBS CBY NSRGY.PK KFT HSY BHP RTP RDS.A BCS LVS ORCL JAVA MSFT NWS GOOG BAIRY.PK HBC AHEXF.PK RNSDF.PK BAMXY.PK The Mole 25 Reasons We Will Not Have a Depression http://seekingalpha.com/article/174623-25-reasons-we-will-not-have-a-depression?source=feed 174623 One particularly vitriolic reader of my last article on The Distorted Shape of the Recovering Economy seemed to think I was predicting a doomsday scenario. I was not at all. Richard Duncan’s tentatively predicted Fall of Rome scenario is a true doomsday scenario, not mine.
My focus of late has been much more on the need for transparency and candor from our government on TARP I and II and the stimulus program results, as well as, more importantly, on getting the stimulus infrastructure program facilitated, expanded and working much better. The Administration needs to confess errors, fix them and get on with things.
Meanwhile, there are some signs of life in our economy and they should not be overlooked or ignored. I am not arguing we will have a robust recovery. I am arguing we will not have a depression and things will pick up, just more slowly than we would like and in the face of more risk, such as much higher oil prices, than we would like. Also, with more unemployment than we would prefer.
Consider these improvements:
-- The Baltic Dry Index is up
-- Multinationals and related companies are improving fast
-- The U.S. share of world GDP is staying about constant
-- With exceptions, the world economy is improving well
-- UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) are seeing and expecting increased traffic
-- The rate of new jobless claims is dropping steadily
-- The housing market is tending to bottom
-- New housing starts are up in many areas
-- The U.S. private sector is slowly getting deleveraged
-- Oil prices could be a lot worse
-- Leading economic indicators (LEI)are on the rise
-- Soros and Buffett are buying, e.g., Wal-Mart (WMT)
-- U.S. exports are picking up
-- Big TARP banks are doing better
-- The velocity of money is improving
-- Inflation and deflation are under decent control
-- GDP growth, while small last quarter, was not negative
-- The dollar is not in freefall
-- Our debt-to-GDP ratio is not at all bad, contrary to popular belief
-- Most economists do not believe a depression is very likely
-- Price earnings ratios of large cap stocks are at a discount
-- We are economically better off than we were a year ago
-- Credit availabilty, while not good, is not frozen as it was
-- The retail sector is doing better, according to the NBER
-- Government will have paid-back TARP moneys to use soon
Without dwelling on or developing these points, but by simply listing them, I want to make clear that, in my view, we are not heading for a depression and we are not heading for a doomsday scenario. To be sure, we have buckets of trouble, but it is all in the framework of a slow, troubled recovery with excessive unemployment tenaciously hanging on.
With a good, cleaned-up and expanded infrastructure rebuilding program that is legally facilitated, made more labor intensive and well administered, we can attack the unemployment program directly and help improve our infrastructure for the future recovery at the same time.
We need to take heart, fix things and get busy.
Disclosures: none.
]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:49:04 -0500 Kimball Corson Kimball Corson submits:
One particularly vitriolic reader of my last article on The Distorted Shape of the Recovering Economy seemed to think I was predicting a doomsday scenario. I was not at all. Richard Duncan’s tentatively predicted Fall of Rome scenario is a true doomsday scenario, not mine.
My focus of late has been much more on the need for transparency and candor from our government on TARP I and II and the stimulus program results, as well as, more importantly, on getting the stimulus infrastructure program facilitated, expanded and working much better. The Administration needs to confess errors, fix them and get on with things.
Meanwhile, there are some signs of life in our economy and they should not be overlooked or ignored. I am not arguing we will have a robust recovery. I am arguing we will not have a depression and things will pick up, just more slowly than we would like and in the face of more risk, such as much higher oil prices, than we would like. Also, with more unemployment than we would prefer.
Consider these improvements:
-- The Baltic Dry Index is up
-- Multinationals and related companies are improving fast
-- The U.S. share of world GDP is staying about constant
-- With exceptions, the world economy is improving well
-- UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) are seeing and expecting increased traffic
-- The rate of new jobless claims is dropping steadily
-- The housing market is tending to bottom
-- New housing starts are up in many areas
-- The U.S. private sector is slowly getting deleveraged
-- Oil prices could be a lot worse
-- Leading economic indicators (LEI)are on the rise
-- Soros and Buffett are buying, e.g., Wal-Mart (WMT)
-- U.S. exports are picking up
-- Big TARP banks are doing better
-- The velocity of money is improving
-- Inflation and deflation are under decent control
-- GDP growth, while small last quarter, was not negative
-- The dollar is not in freefall
-- Our debt-to-GDP ratio is not at all bad, contrary to popular belief
-- Most economists do not believe a depression is very likely
-- Price earnings ratios of large cap stocks are at a discount
-- We are economically better off than we were a year ago
-- Credit availabilty, while not good, is not frozen as it was
-- The retail sector is doing better, according to the NBER
-- Government will have paid-back TARP moneys to use soon
Without dwelling on or developing these points, but by simply listing them, I want to make clear that, in my view, we are not heading for a depression and we are not heading for a doomsday scenario. To be sure, we have buckets of trouble, but it is all in the framework of a slow, troubled recovery with excessive unemployment tenaciously hanging on.
With a good, cleaned-up and expanded infrastructure rebuilding program that is legally facilitated, made more labor intensive and well administered, we can attack the unemployment program directly and help improve our infrastructure for the future recovery at the same time.
We need to take heart, fix things and get busy.
Disclosures: none.

Complete Story »]]> UPS FDX WMT Kimball Corson S&P 500's Most Unattractive Stocks http://seekingalpha.com/article/174514-s-p-500-s-most-unattractive-stocks?source=feed 174514 The Applied Finance Group (AFG) works with some of the most well respected investment firms in the U.S. to help them develop quantitative screening processes to identify a better pool of companies to choose from for their portfolio holdings. However, picking winning investment opportunities isn’t the only value AFG provides clients. AFG also develops quantitative strategies to quickly identify possible torpedoes lurking in your client or prospective client’s portfolio.

AFG’s quantitative process is centered on the proprietary Economic Margin (EM) Framework (what a company earns above its true cost of capital). The core of AFG’s quantitative process starts with evaluating corporate performance and the expected improvement relative to their peers, evaluating the valuation attractiveness of the company, and determining if a firm is following a wealth creating or wealth destroying strategy.

]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 07:34:39 -0500 Value Expectations Value Expectations submits:

The Applied Finance Group (AFG) works with some of the most well respected investment firms in the U.S. to help them develop quantitative screening processes to identify a better pool of companies to choose from for their portfolio holdings. However, picking winning investment opportunities isn’t the only value AFG provides clients. AFG also develops quantitative strategies to quickly identify possible torpedoes lurking in your client or prospective client’s portfolio.

AFG’s quantitative process is centered on the proprietary Economic Margin (EM) Framework (what a company earns above its true cost of capital). The core of AFG’s quantitative process starts with evaluating corporate performance and the expected improvement relative to their peers, evaluating the valuation attractiveness of the company, and determining if a firm is following a wealth creating or wealth destroying strategy.


Complete Story »]]> PH PPG PHM DOV FO IGT TSN BF.B CBS MWW RRC BTU SIAL XRAY FTR RHT EXPD UPS NU EQT Value Expectations Cramer's Mad Money - The Most Dangerous Homebuilder (11/19/09) http://seekingalpha.com/article/174452-cramer-s-mad-money-the-most-dangerous-homebuilder-11-19-09?source=feed 174452 Stocks discussed on the in depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday November 19.

Sell Block: Pulte Homes (PHM)

]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 05:48:05 -0500 SA Editor Miriam Metzinger Miriam Metzinger submits:

Stocks discussed on the in depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday November 19.

Sell Block: Pulte Homes (PHM)


Complete Story »]]> PHM MCD NUE UPS MON DSX NAT GOOG AAPL FRNT INTC RIMM EQT RHB Miriam Metzinger Analyze Earnings Yield Like Warren Buffett http://seekingalpha.com/article/173766-analyze-earnings-yield-like-warren-buffett?source=feed 173766 Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) filed their 13-F that details their portfolio holdings. It is well documented that Warren Buffett likes to look a company's earnings yield relative to bonds to determine how attractive it is. The 10 year yield is currently at 3.33%.

Below we analyze the earnings yields (EPS/Stock Price) for Berkshire Hathaway’s current holdings:

]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 08:42:18 -0500 YCHARTS.com YCHARTS.com submits:

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) filed their 13-F that details their portfolio holdings. It is well documented that Warren Buffett likes to look a company's earnings yield relative to bonds to determine how attractive it is. The 10 year yield is currently at 3.33%.

Below we analyze the earnings yields (EPS/Stock Price) for Berkshire Hathaway’s current holdings:


Complete Story »]]> BRK.A XOM WMT GE NRG PG BRK.B BAC WPO RSG AXP WSC IRM KMX WFC USB UPS COST MTB NKE KO HD BNI CMCSA LOW NSC BDX UNP MCO GSK JNJ KFT SNY TRV TMK GCI YCHARTS.com UPS and Fedex Will Need 64,000 Additional Holiday Workers http://seekingalpha.com/article/173752-ups-and-fedex-will-need-64-000-additional-holiday-workers?source=feed 173752 On Monday UPS announced that its projections show it will handle more parcel deliveries this holiday season than it did last year. UPS it will deliver about 400 million packages worldwide between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Furthermore, UPS announced that it will hire 50,000 temporary workers to handle the greater volume.

Last week FedEx (FDX) also reported that it anticipates shipping more this year. FedEx said it will hire 14,000 additional part-time and temporary holiday workers.

]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:33:52 -0500 The Good News Economist The Good News Economist submits:

On Monday UPS announced that its projections show it will handle more parcel deliveries this holiday season than it did last year. UPS it will deliver about 400 million packages worldwide between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Furthermore, UPS announced that it will hire 50,000 temporary workers to handle the greater volume.

Last week FedEx (FDX) also reported that it anticipates shipping more this year. FedEx said it will hire 14,000 additional part-time and temporary holiday workers.


Complete Story »]]> UPS FDX The Good News Economist Recovery Is Real, But Vulnerable - UPS http://seekingalpha.com/article/172836-recovery-is-real-but-vulnerable-ups?source=feed 172836 Bullish comments out of UPS this morning. Although we’ve been seeing some very weak data out (and commentary) of the transport sector, UPS (UPS) is bucking the trend. They think the recovery is real and could continue throughout 2010 as volumes surge. At a meeting in Singapore UPS CEO Scott Davis made the following comments:

“I think we will go back to see positive volumes next year as the economy improves…I believe the recovery is real, but it is gradual. It is sustainable but vulnerable.”

]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:17:41 -0500 The Pragmatic Capitalist The Pragmatic Capitalist submits:

Bullish comments out of UPS this morning. Although we’ve been seeing some very weak data out (and commentary) of the transport sector, UPS (UPS) is bucking the trend. They think the recovery is real and could continue throughout 2010 as volumes surge. At a meeting in Singapore UPS CEO Scott Davis made the following comments:

“I think we will go back to see positive volumes next year as the economy improves…I believe the recovery is real, but it is gradual. It is sustainable but vulnerable.”


Complete Story »]]> UPS YRCW The Pragmatic Capitalist The Reluctant Bull: My Portfolio http://seekingalpha.com/article/172043-the-reluctant-bull-my-portfolio?source=feed 172043 Lately, I've been thinking that there are probably more than a few readers on SA that think of me as an old, cranky "Perma-Bear". While I'm willing to concede that I may fit a fairly generally accepted definition of "old" (especially in the eyes of those under, say age 30, or so), and I admit that I can be out-spoken, and as the years have passed, I'm less likely to suffer fools gladly, and find no problem in calling a spade a spade, I bridle at the thought of being considered a "Perma-Bear".

Having said that, I started wondering, "What WOULD be an accurate an appropriate label for my investment outlook at the present time?". Considering what was in my portfolio, and why, I decided the most accurate label would be "reluctant bull".

]]> Sun, 08 Nov 2009 05:50:32 -0500 Old Trader Old Trader submits:

Lately, I've been thinking that there are probably more than a few readers on SA that think of me as an old, cranky "Perma-Bear". While I'm willing to concede that I may fit a fairly generally accepted definition of "old" (especially in the eyes of those under, say age 30, or so), and I admit that I can be out-spoken, and as the years have passed, I'm less likely to suffer fools gladly, and find no problem in calling a spade a spade, I bridle at the thought of being considered a "Perma-Bear".

Having said that, I started wondering, "What WOULD be an accurate an appropriate label for my investment outlook at the present time?". Considering what was in my portfolio, and why, I decided the most accurate label would be "reluctant bull".


Complete Story »]]> PVX MMP KMR JNJ UPS O EN GIM TEI SDS GG Old Trader Wednesday's Notable Market Action http://seekingalpha.com/article/169713-wednesday-s-notable-market-action?source=feed 169713
  • As we noted yesterday, the Vix spiked again and the call buyers in the options are sitting pretty now. The VIX jumped over 12% on the day to just under 28.

    • VIX – CBOE Volatility index – Monday’s leap in the reading of Wall Street’s fear gauge was accompanied by one of those occasions when investors were left flat-footed during the trading day as stocks flashed from green to red. It was highly reminiscent of the trading pattern in 2008 and earlier this year when, try as they might, investors couldn’t shake off the recession blues no matter how economists tried to spin data points. Monday’s 10% rise in the Vix has been followed today by a further 0.5% rise to 24.43 only one week after the market volatility reading tried to dip below 20, effectively wiping risk aversion off the radar altogether. Today, however, one option investor appears to be looking for a substantial return to volatile sessions and sold at-the-money put options to back his bet that the Vix will return to a mid-30 reading by the end of 2009. Using the December contract some 24,000 call options at the 35 strike were bought for 79 cents, partially funded by the sale of almost 7,500 put options expiring at the same time for a higher 1.90 premium. One possible explanation for the actions of this investor, who expects the value of the puts to fall and the price of the calls to increase, is Tuesday’s return to deteriorating consumer confidence. With more than two-thirds of output origination from consumers, this trader is concerned about further market weakness ahead.

    • The dollar surge continued and it took oil to the woodshed. Oil collapsed 3%.
    • Dr. Copper fell over 2% on the day as investors begin to worry about the sustainability of the economic recovery.
    • Goldman added Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) to their conviction buy list and upped their price target to $26.
    • Citigroup upgraded AK Steel (AKS) to a buy and upped their price target to $21.
    • Citi also upgraded Target Corp. (TGT) to a buy with a $61 price target.
    • Brazil’s Bovespa declined 4.5% on the day and extended the decline to 11% since the trader tax was initiated. Watch out below if Congress tries to pass something similar here. The bottom would almost certainly come out of the market if we try to crack down on price discovery.

    The names having the largest impact on IG are United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) (-1bps) pushing IG 0.01bps tighter, and American International Group, Inc. (AIG) (+75.63bps) adding 0.48bps to IG. HVOL is more sensitive with Home Depot Inc.(HD) pushing it 0bps tighter, and American International Group, Inc. contributing 2.06bps to HVOL’s change today. The less volatile ExHVOL’s move today is driven by both United Parcel Service Inc. (-1bps) pushing the index 0.01bps tighter, and Valero Energy Corp. (+13.5bps) adding 0.13bps to ExHVOL. [We also note that CIT (CIT) ended the day 100bps wider as the revolver extension seemed to be ignored by credit markets as nothing but a snub to Icahn; also the GMAC/RESCAP moves were dramatic after they got their $2.9bn TLGP issue off - we note that the GMAC-RESCAP spread recahed 1350bps recently (dramatically wider in a quick period) and we suspect that this 550bps plus rally in RESCAP is as much as about a busted compression trade as it is any sentiment improvements - look for a 500-600bps differential for any entry as a fllor level for a decompression trade].

    ]]>     Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:30:10 -0400 The Pragmatic Capitalist The Pragmatic Capitalist submits:

    VIX – CBOE Volatility index – Monday’s leap in the reading of Wall Street’s fear gauge was accompanied by one of those occasions when investors were left flat-footed during the trading day as stocks flashed from green to red. It was highly reminiscent of the trading pattern in 2008 and earlier this year when, try as they might, investors couldn’t shake off the recession blues no matter how economists tried to spin data points. Monday’s 10% rise in the Vix has been followed today by a further 0.5% rise to 24.43 only one week after the market volatility reading tried to dip below 20, effectively wiping risk aversion off the radar altogether. Today, however, one option investor appears to be looking for a substantial return to volatile sessions and sold at-the-money put options to back his bet that the Vix will return to a mid-30 reading by the end of 2009. Using the December contract some 24,000 call options at the 35 strike were bought for 79 cents, partially funded by the sale of almost 7,500 put options expiring at the same time for a higher 1.90 premium. One possible explanation for the actions of this investor, who expects the value of the puts to fall and the price of the calls to increase, is Tuesday’s return to deteriorating consumer confidence. With more than two-thirds of output origination from consumers, this trader is concerned about further market weakness ahead.

    • The dollar surge continued and it took oil to the woodshed. Oil collapsed 3%.
    • Dr. Copper fell over 2% on the day as investors begin to worry about the sustainability of the economic recovery.
    • Goldman added Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) to their conviction buy list and upped their price target to $26.
    • Citigroup upgraded AK Steel (AKS) to a buy and upped their price target to $21.
    • Citi also upgraded Target Corp. (TGT) to a buy with a $61 price target.
    • Brazil’s Bovespa declined 4.5% on the day and extended the decline to 11% since the trader tax was initiated. Watch out below if Congress tries to pass something similar here. The bottom would almost certainly come out of the market if we try to crack down on price discovery.

    The names having the largest impact on IG are United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) (-1bps) pushing IG 0.01bps tighter, and American International Group, Inc. (AIG) (+75.63bps) adding 0.48bps to IG. HVOL is more sensitive with Home Depot Inc.(HD) pushing it 0bps tighter, and American International Group, Inc. contributing 2.06bps to HVOL’s change today. The less volatile ExHVOL’s move today is driven by both United Parcel Service Inc. (-1bps) pushing the index 0.01bps tighter, and Valero Energy Corp. (+13.5bps) adding 0.13bps to ExHVOL. [We also note that CIT (CIT) ended the day 100bps wider as the revolver extension seemed to be ignored by credit markets as nothing but a snub to Icahn; also the GMAC/RESCAP moves were dramatic after they got their $2.9bn TLGP issue off - we note that the GMAC-RESCAP spread recahed 1350bps recently (dramatically wider in a quick period) and we suspect that this 550bps plus rally in RESCAP is as much as about a busted compression trade as it is any sentiment improvements - look for a 500-600bps differential for any entry as a fllor level for a decompression trade].


    Complete Story »]]>     CBI AKS TGT UPS AIG HD CIT The Pragmatic Capitalist     What Can UPS Do for Social Media? http://seekingalpha.com/article/168990-what-can-ups-do-for-social-media?source=feed 168990 While this UPS sponsored video at Mashable is slick, I’m scratching my head over it.

    ]]>     Tue, 27 Oct 2009 03:34:58 -0400 Andy Beal Andy Beal submits:

    While this UPS sponsored video at Mashable is slick, I’m scratching my head over it.


    Complete Story »]]>     UPS Andy Beal     Earning Recaps: Yahoo, Microsoft, eBay, UPS, Amazon http://seekingalpha.com/article/168634-earning-recaps-yahoo-microsoft-ebay-ups-amazon?source=feed 168634 Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO): Neutrality with a Need for Innovation

    Earnings Info: Earned 13 cents a share, beating analyst expectations by 6 cents.

    ]]>     Sun, 25 Oct 2009 05:36:30 -0400 wall street cheat sheet Wall Street Cheat Sheet submits:

    Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO): Neutrality with a Need for Innovation

    Earnings Info: Earned 13 cents a share, beating analyst expectations by 6 cents.


    Complete Story »]]>     YHOO EBAY MSFT UPS AMZN wall street cheat sheet     Stalled UPS: 2009 Dividend Boost Not Likely http://seekingalpha.com/article/168453-stalled-ups-2009-dividend-boost-not-likely?source=feed 168453 “What Can Brown Do For You?”

    Aside from maybe giving the slogan a rest, how about an increase when they announce their Q4 dividend in the next couple of weeks?

    ]]>     Fri, 23 Oct 2009 05:11:54 -0400 Low Sweat Investing Low Sweat Investing submits:

    “What Can Brown Do For You?”

    Aside from maybe giving the slogan a rest, how about an increase when they announce their Q4 dividend in the next couple of weeks?


    Complete Story »]]>     UPS Low Sweat Investing     United Parcel Service, Inc. Q3 2009 Earnings Call Transcript http://seekingalpha.com/article/168248-united-parcel-service-inc-q3-2009-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed 168248 United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

    Q3 2009 Earnings Call

    October 22, 2009 8:30 am ET

    ]]>     Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:09:10 -0400 United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

    Q3 2009 Earnings Call

    October 22, 2009 8:30 am ET


    Complete Story »]]>     UPS     UPS: Economy Still Has a Long Way to Go http://seekingalpha.com/article/168194-ups-economy-still-has-a-long-way-to-go?source=feed 168194

    A bit of mixed data Thursday morning has investors scratching their heads over the next move in the equity market.

    The index of leading indicators was up by 1% in September, marking its 6th consecutive gain. The largest contributor to the improvement was interest rates, which remain accommodative. Jobless claims, on the other hand, continue to reflect the extreme weakness in the economy. Claims jumped to 531K – a truly staggering number for an economy that is supposedly in the middle of a recovery. Continuing claims dropped by 98K which is a clear sign that the ratio of firings to hirings is becoming more favorable.

    ]]>     Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:15:14 -0400 The Pragmatic Capitalist The Pragmatic Capitalist submits:

    A bit of mixed data Thursday morning has investors scratching their heads over the next move in the equity market.

    The index of leading indicators was up by 1% in September, marking its 6th consecutive gain. The largest contributor to the improvement was interest rates, which remain accommodative. Jobless claims, on the other hand, continue to reflect the extreme weakness in the economy. Claims jumped to 531K – a truly staggering number for an economy that is supposedly in the middle of a recovery. Continuing claims dropped by 98K which is a clear sign that the ratio of firings to hirings is becoming more favorable.


    Complete Story »]]>     UPS The Pragmatic Capitalist