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- The T. Boone Pickens Approach [view article]
- What's Behind the Slide in Oil and Commodities? [view article]
- Buying Gold for Oil Like George Soros [view article]
- Is Valero a Better Buy than Exxon Mobil? [view article]
- 'Pickens Plan' Comes in the Nick of Time [view article]
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Oil Price Targets [view article]
- Oil Price Drop: Bad News and Faulty Inferences [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Does Al Gore Finally Get It? [view article]
- Tuesday Options Outlook: EMC, XLE, USO, GS, WB, C, CROX, LOGI [view article]
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- Oil Price Targets
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- The T. Boone Pickens Approach
- What's Behind the Slide in Oil and Commodities?
- Selling Premium on the Uncertainty in Oil
- Oil Price Drop: Bad News and Faulty Inferences
- Tracking Sentiment in the Movement of Sectors and Asset Classes
- Options Trader: Thursday Outlook
- 'Pickens Plan' Comes in the Nick of Time
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The T. Boone Pickens Approach [view article]
At this point, it should be clear that "global warming" is really only one of the many effects of "drastic climate change caused by human activity". It's important to emphasize this point because many people still make the mistake of trying to deny climate change based on a limited and improper understanding of the concept, which makes them equate it solely to "global warming". This is not just a matter of semantics; it's a crucial distinction. And I agree with the notion of the poster above who indicated that the dominant discourse still refers to climate change as a theological matter (a question of belief), rather than a matter of science and facts. It is evident to the vast majority of the global scientific community that has studied the climate change phenomenon that it is real and that its consequences can no longer be dismissed. It's also evident to them that global warming is simply one of the many faces of global climate change.On that note, I guess it's only fair to give credit to whom it's due. The very fact that global warming is being discussed on a financial forum is a product of the work of none other than Canadian scientist David Suzuki. For over two decades, David has been one of conservation's strongest voices; he's been pioneering the study and the popularization of the notion by taking on several media projects aimed at educating people around the world. In this sense, all Al Gore did was take the words of Suzuki and other such experts and put them in such a way that would make them more palatable to American audiences. An he has obviously succeeded at that. If you are still in doubt, then think about the Global Warming Index (GWI) created by UBS last year to capture temperature variations and turn them into money-making instruments. While weather investing is hardly a novelty, it's clear that the GWI is a recent attempt at making weather derivatives trading a common practice among some of the biggest culprits of climate change. As it is, some of those trading in weather derivatives include reinsurers, hedge funds and ENERGY companies. No wonder this is now a $50 billion industry.
As Ilija Murisic, executive director of hybrid derivatives trading at UBS said, “Global warming has created much more volatility in temperatures and weather conditions, which has led to increased liquidity in the weather derivatives market”. At least in this sense global warming is VERY REAL and it is here to stay.
Given this state of affairs and the sorts of sophisticated baskets that are being engineered around the GWI, you've got to wonder if the big players in the energy sector (and their proxies on Capitol Hill) have any interest whatsoever in doing anything about climate change and reducing CO2 emissions. I mean, if you could make a tone of cash by going long on the GWI (it's the obvious choice), thereby hedging any other positions in different assets classes that may or may not be affected by changing market conditions and socio-political dynamics (i.e. the push toward more fuel efficiency in every sector), why would you even bother to reduce emissions let alone develop alternative, carbon-free sources of energy?
There's an underlying perverse logic in such things as the GWI that make me think that anything that we do on the climate change front will always be undermined by the whims of the money-hungry, ruthless interests of big capital. And it doesn't matter how you put it or the position you take on the subject, big capital will always find an opportunity to make money, whether you believe global warming is real or not...it doesn't matter! Yet ignorance and blindness are such that we can't even realize the obvious fact that even those media characters espousing the "drill, drill, drill" mantra are simply puppets in this game.
Reply
What's Behind the Slide in Oil and Commodities? [view article]
"the Nymex crude oil market began to collapse, plunging $10 per barrel within a span of less than one-hour"Nope, no speculation here, just good old supply and demand. Reply
What's Behind the Slide in Oil and Commodities? [view article]
Rosy, must be the color of those contacts.All I see is short term charts for short term traders.
Will the Fed hike interest rates any time soon? Highly unlikely if Freddie and Fannie are to survive as independent entities.
Is the Eurozone that much stronger? Yes, but do they want the dollar to appreciate if the dollars' decline has been due to all those extra dollars floating around?
You know, its called supply. If the dollar appreciates, at a time of high inflation in Europe, will their Central Banks give up and reduce their interest rates to further strenghten it?
Your Call...I do not have a clue. I do know that the Markets do not like uncertainty. Reply
The T. Boone Pickens Approach [view article]
Fitz: your mention of how good the Cheney energy policy was that prices are up 5X...notice that congress didn't act on the policy and most of the key initiatives have not been enacted.GOP financial hijinks...not limited to GOP...lots of blame for all parties on that one. Take a look at the wall of shame on the FNMZ and Freddie Mac scandals.
Agreeing with BUsh: I don't agree with him on everything...I think he's dead wrong on immigration...he caved in to the Demo's and the hispanic lobby not to mention the business lobby. He didn't veto near enough spending bills and allowed spending to go out of control...he didn't fight hard enough to make the tax cuts permanent. I still think the war was right...saddam was a madman and violated UN resolution after UN resolution...just going to let him keep on? And he was genocidal. Why is genocide bad in one country but okay in another...on and on. Bottom line: I don't agree with him on everything and I'm sorely dissappointed in Bush. BUT, knowing everything that has happened and given the choice between him and Gore and/or Kerry, I'd vote for him again without a blink. The other two alternatives would have been horrible.
My financial situation has improved tremendously since he got in office. My salary is way up, my stock holdings and savings are way up, even accounting for inflation and the low dollar. I'm happy with the financial situation. Now, when they try and take the tax cuts away, we'll all be in a world of hurt.
Bottom line: I don't agree with all GOP'ers and everything they do, but I do agree with them some time. I disagree with the philosophy and the actions of all democrats. So, I despise McCain but will hold my nose and vote for him because the messiah is just a horrible choice. I philosophically disagree with all my heart on his tax policy, his health policy, his energy policy, his Iraq policy, his Iran policy, his social policy, his selection of bombers and crooks as friends, etc. I think the man is a catastrophe waiting to happen as it involves me and my family and my business and my state and my country. His voting record in the Senate bears out what he will be like as POTUS and it scares the crap out of me. McCain is a little better, but not much.
biofuels for planes...i like it as long as it isn't corn-based ethanol. no more burning food for energy. that's just stupid. Reply
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Buying Gold for Oil Like George Soros [view article]
Historic ratios aren't complete garbage, but they are not fundamentals. The fundamentals of future demand and supply determines price. The X factor is human emotions of fear and greed. The parabolic rise of oil indicates the latter. Position- short crude oil, short China, long CSC, and looking to short financials on 200 MDA test. ReplyIs Valero a Better Buy than Exxon Mobil? [view article]
The US still imports refined products so there is no overcapacity in this area. The refiners are trading at below replacement value and are a great long term buy. Right now they are suffering because of being at the wrong end of the stick (weak economy/high oil). Worldwide the demand for refined products is increasing so the long-term fundamentals are great for this industry.Reply
'Pickens Plan' Comes in the Nick of Time [view article]
"just in time" ...or a few years too late?
Check back in 20 years to find out. Reply
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Whidbey,Read the last paragraph of the post again before you call everyone else Martians around here. Reply
The T. Boone Pickens Approach [view article]
Fitz: your mention of how good the Cheney energy policy was that prices are up 5X...notice that congress didn't act on the policy and most of the key initiatives have not been enacted.GOP financial hijinks...not limited to GOP...lots of blame for all parties on that one. Take a look at the wall of shame on the FNMZ and Freddie Mac scandals.
Agreeing with BUsh: I don't agree with him on everything...I think he's dead wrong on immigration...he caved in to the Demo's and the hispanic lobby not to mention the business lobby. He didn't veto near enough spending bills and allowed spending to go out of control...he didn't fight hard enough to make the tax cuts permanent. I still think the war was right...saddam was a madman and violated UN resolution after UN resolution...just going to let him keep on? And he was genocidal. Why is genocide bad in one country but okay in another...on and on. Bottom line: I don't agree with him on everything and I'm sorely dissappointed in Bush. BUT, knowing everything that has happened and given the choice between him and Gore and/or Kerry, I'd vote for him again without a blink. The other two alternatives would have been horrible.
My financial situation has improved tremendously since he got in office. My salary is way up, my stock holdings and savings are way up, even accounting for inflation and the low dollar. I'm happy with the financial situation. Now, when they try and take the tax cuts away, we'll all be in a world of hurt.
Bottom line: I don't agree with all GOP'ers and everything they do, but I do agree with them some time. I disagree with the philosophy and the actions of all democrats. So, I despise McCain but will hold my nose and vote for him because the messiah is just a horrible choice. I philosophically disagree with all my heart on his tax policy, his health policy, his energy policy, his Iraq policy, his Iran policy, his social policy, his selection of bombers and crooks as friends, etc. I think the man is a catastrophe waiting to happen as it involves me and my family and my business and my state and my country. His voting record in the Senate bears out what he will be like as POTUS and it scares the crap out of me. McCain is a little better, but not much.
biofuels for planes...i like it as long as it isn't corn-based ethanol. no more burning food for energy. that's just stupid. Reply
The T. Boone Pickens Approach [view article]
yes, i sound almost like al gore; goodness gracious. ReplyOil Price Targets [view article]
One analyst actually controls the price of oil. I'm not joking. His name is Arjun Murti at GS. He was the original "super spike" guy that called oil at $100. He got lucky because of Katrina. Super spike V2 said +$140 and then $200. Guess what -- we hit $146.He front runs the oil price for GS prod commodity desk that makes billions trading oil. We will never know how much exactly because they bury the prop desk under four business units and you can't back out the numbers. Widely recognized as "extremely large".
There are few people (maybe five total) that can move the market on their words/report and he is definitely one of them. He is arguably the most powerful person on the planet and there isn't even a picture of him...
Do the research yourself. Ask why his thesis is supply and demand yet as an example, one of the companies he covers MRO, is pissing all over themselves finding oil in the Bakken. Reply
The T. Boone Pickens Approach [view article]
fitz - not sure you know how big things get implemented - you normally go to the individual wimp scenerio defense/roadblocks, etc.Electric conversion will continue in the US as it has occured elsewhere in the world for non-grassroot implementation. For instance, it will begin in industry (in transportation: like rails, busses, transport etc., as they have proven in the past to switch to electric and NG fork trucks, delivery vans, etc., rails, where there is in essence FLEET SERVICE, and eventually down to individuals) - you normally start with the selfish individual perspective.
Same for power generation - a Boone approach, if not utility, converts the majority while individual farm windmills and thermal solar panels comes at it from the other end, where willing minds and ingenuity prevail: roadblockers get left behind (and/or then want others to do it for them!). Reply
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
What is the post for, people from Mars? We see the market (possibly too much), what we don't know is what it means. Your view on commodities is odd, commodities do tell a story on the economy and it seems more negative than you suggest; when commodities fall it is a clear indication of major economic slow down in progress. The truth is this market is blown around by news, rumors and, god forbid, naked short selling, but what is really killing us is the Congress. Turn them all out this year and try again. ReplyOil Price Targets [view article]
When the Olympics are over we should be able to stand on the beach in La Jolla and see the plume of smoke coming from China as every major industry starts up at once. Good way to test their grid too. Demand Reconstruction.Reply
The T. Boone Pickens Approach [view article]
fitz - i recognize you're doing the best you can. I DID work in the energy world for 30 some years. Now I have plenty of wind, only. If i had Boone's money (and energy) i'd work harder at getting us off of burning hydrocarbons, which is why I don't have any money. I'd keep us to keep our hydrocarbons and let the rest of the world fight for theirs, or convert, like we should. Reply