U.S. OIL FUND ETF (USO)

All Comments on USO

  • commenter
    S.Murphy
    Oct 16 12:58 AM
    Oil Down 48% from Highs [view article]
    OPEC, as usual, will have little effect. The price of crude is being discounted for a disheveled world economy. It's still historically overpriced and well above the book numbers used by oil companies who have the expertise to estimate its real value. The bubble was obviously speculation by people who never dream of taking delivery. Oil is such an important element of the world's economy that some kind of logical controls against shorting and speculation need to be implemented. The capitalization of the entire oil industry is being jerked around by this kind of madness.These devices do absolutely nothing but generate profits for the infrastructure of commodities markets. Purported "cushioning" is just so much broker rhetoric. Oil will settle out when present production costs start to limit overall production. Supply will dwindle and cause the price to go higher. The demand side of this equation is unknowable with the economy sliding quickly downhill but I'll bet those in the know have a good idea where the absolute downside limit may be. How many bpd are needed to operate the essential elements of the oil economy? Reply
  • commenter
    PastTense
    Oct 15 10:37 PM
    Oil Down 48% from Highs [view article]
    I don't expect OPEC to allow the prices to remain this low for long. Reply
  • commenter
    anarchist
    Oct 15 10:16 PM
    Oil Down 48% from Highs [view article]
    True, took the word out of my mouth, where is the indignation toward short sellers? Reply
  • commenter
    BrunoT
    Oct 15 06:39 PM
    The Time to Buy Commodities Is Near [view article]
    Epeon. It's very volatile. My Canadian royalty trust holding were down 13% today. So much for it already being discounted for the future recession! (even though it was already almost 50% down off highs)

    I stick to the macro picture and let the traders gamble on the short term moves. Oil is a needed product and available relatively "cheap" today. It will move up with inflation, so it has some inflation hedge properties built in. I wouldn't own most stocks today though. Not a ton of upside.     Reply
  • commenter
    BrunoT
    Oct 15 06:36 PM
    The Time to Buy Commodities Is Near [view article]
    Hey CLH. Never say "never". Why? Well, when's the last time world govn'ts printed money on this scale to bail out failed banking systems? So for that reason the previous rules are out. I really think too many people are still thinking in terms of "business as usual" investing. These are unprecedented times. Only if one can calculate the money leaving vs the money being injected accurately could you determine if it's falling or rising. I can't do that.

    The fact that Mike Norman seems to agree with what my theory is (short term price falls and volatility followed by a long term move up in commodities as inflation hits) scary, though. He's been wrong for years now.     Reply
  • commenter
    YogiG
    Oct 15 05:51 PM
    Crude Prices Plunge - UltraShort ETF Positioned for Profits [view article]
    This guy is why we are in the mess we are in - "dust of my hummer"...give me a break...the current price drop in gas is related to oil...but is also a political reality - oil mergers in late 2003 early 2005 saw gas prices doubling by early 2006 - before the price of oil got going...gas prices fell about $1 between August 2006 and election day...hmmm.... good try Bush/GOP.

    Yes, we will see a sustain pricing stratum of @$65 (actual cost to produce and sell) - to $88...the price that includes speculative/geo-pol/do... valuation profits and the price the Saudis want) for the next 24 months...but, soon it will work its way back to over $100, and with no position limits, another bubble rally will get going as world supply and demand start to find equilibirum at 88mbpd in mid 2010....
    We should take advantgae of this reprieve and go green, or we will find ourselves in $150 in late 2011 / early 2012 and back into another global recession...     Reply
  • commenter
    YogiG
    Oct 15 05:33 PM
    Oil: Remember Iran? [view article]
    There was a $5 geo-political premium that was in the price at $100...it was stretch/exaggerated/in... by another $5-$7 via the excess video barrell chunks of money in teh futures prices, along with a $20 premium of dollar valuations..that was on top of $65 of production, shipping and taxes...everything above that was Goldman Sachs led false rumor speculation...notice the CFTC has yet to tell us the whole story behind $147 oil?? Reply
  • commenter
    akapital9
    Oct 15 05:25 PM
    Crude Prices Plunge - UltraShort ETF Positioned for Profits [view article]
    Some thoughts:

    nearing $70 a barrel supply destruction will begin to kick in (e.g. OPEC will curb production).

    oil shorts are way in the money and likely to take some profits

    Demand in emerging markets (less susceptible to current crisis) will continue to rise

    Winter is imminent in the Western Hemisphere

    Peak Oil?

    We shall see...     Reply
  • commenter
    Socialism
    cannot
    compete!
    Oct 15 03:49 PM
    The Time to Buy Commodities Is Near [view article]
    @CLH -- you must have a TON of shorts on commodities!! Ummm...who said anything about debt elimination? All we're doing is moving it from bank balance sheets to the government's, in order to reinflate the credit bubble. Prepare to lose your shirt! Reply
  • commenter
    Keeping
    Them Honest
    Oct 15 02:51 PM
    Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    For whatever this is worth to you but I, like the relpy earlier, really enjoy your graphs and commentary that is done in a non-bias manner. Keep up the good work. Reply
  • commenter
    axelrod608
    Oct 15 02:41 PM
    Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
    OOOPS !!! Senior moment above....

    The CDS's are not 1,000 Trillion - that's the total of all derivatives. The CDS problem is that they were invented to be an alternative to insurance with no requirements for sequestering funds to cover them. The companies that sold the CDS's cannot cover the losses, so the "insurance" buyers of derivatives were counting on to cover losses doesn't exist. The losses are uninsured. So the holders of all those derivatives just have to eat the losses.

    Real, regulated insurance requires funds to be safely held to cover losses. CDS's aren't worth the paper they're written on.

    THAT's the problem.     Reply
  • commenter
    Alan von
    Altendorf
    Oct 15 02:31 PM
    My Website
    Oil: Remember Iran? [view article]
    Good article. Timely. The next few days will tell. Reply
  • commenter
    Finding Beta
    Oct 15 02:16 PM
    Crude Prices Plunge - UltraShort ETF Positioned for Profits [view article]
    Matty is correct.

    Today (Oct. 15) NYMEX crude is down < 5% whilst DUG is up ~25%

    This is nowhere near the numbers the author states.

    A wild ride indeed! But approaching a $60 to $70 trading range to trade DIG/DUG in.     Reply
  • commenter
    axelrod608
    Oct 15 01:58 PM
    Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
    19 months of endless campaign drivel and people have to make it spill over here....

    Divided we fall. Just keep pointing those fingers and calling loyal Americans who disagree with you names. It will surely hasten our demise.

    Back on subject, the breakfast had one indigestible tidbit - the one by the talking head in charge of CDS's saying CDS's are being unfairly blamed for the mess. CDS's ARE the mess.

    First, they are stupid, highly leveraged "securities" with no security, no requiremets for security. Backed by nothing, worth no more than a rube will pay for them. They sell at market somewhere between 16 cents and 65 cents on the dollar and there's 1,000 TRILLION dollars of them globally.

    Second, they are held off the books, totally negating any transparency the holder may have in its other assets.

    No amount of money will make their holders solvent. The "bailout" is akin to bailing out the Titanic with a teaspoon.

    Dishonest "leadership" is too afraid to level with the American people. They'd rather keep us busy pointing fingers at and calling each other names. Sadly, many Americans buy in to this charade.

    Newsflash - it matters not who "wins" the election. The minor differences are dwarfed by the immensity of the underlying problem.     Reply
  • commenter
    Kciredor
    Oct 15 01:53 PM
    Crude Prices Plunge - UltraShort ETF Positioned for Profits [view article]
    Good luck with that Hummer, buddy. Demand may have fallen, but oil is thus far an inelastic good. People still drive to work and OPEC is cutting production to maintain economic and political power. Reply
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