PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP)

All Comments on UUP

  • commenter
    The hand
    Oct 03 04:21 AM
    My Website
    7 Rules For Investing During the Fourth Quarter [view article]
    actually i suspect this time it is different - the dow might actually decline on bad fundamentals. historically the dow has corrected for bubbles. this time the bubbles and the economic downturn happened together because wall street caused it. i pray that all of the fed's horses and all the treasury's men can put the economy together again.


     Reply
  • commenter
    cjct
    Oct 03 02:56 AM
    7 Rules For Investing During the Fourth Quarter [view article]
    Amen to the anti-cyclical comments. It really boggled the mind that people were saying "this time is different" for the cyclicals (energy, fertilizers, steel) because the global economy had decoupled from the US economy. No one seemed to mention that the US is the largest play on the world seen and it's consumers demand most of the products made by the RoW. Reply
  • commenter
    paultaut
    Oct 02 10:27 PM
    Bailout Drama Driving Euro Down [view article]
    Take the total number of different Banks in the EU, multiply that total by 100 and you have the US. The EU has raised capital on an ongoing basis and can contain its internal problems, the US has hidden it losses and now are being forced to admit that they can be "marked to market".

    The crisis has hit all of them at the same time because they tried to hide the discounted values from the start. Once Merrill Lynch sold some $30 Billion at 22 cents on the dollar, Tier 3 assets were finally quantified to a degree. The big rock was turned over and all of the cockroaches scattered trying to make deals.

    Investment Banks lost the ability to fund the deals which were the basis of their earnings, Hedge Funds lost their edge when their access to capital was first squeezed and then hamstrung when margins continued to rise and Governments shortcircuited what used to be normal market activity by first suspending short sales on the weakest stocks and then making announcements on days they knew would cause the most short covering. Because the number of Hedge Funds had grown to equal or surpass the number of Mutual Funds, their investments caused massive overlaps. Redemptions which would not have caused chaos as little as 4 years ago are being exacerbated by the Mutual Funds which are also raising capital to pay their annual distributions. As the high flyers crash, more shares have to be sold to bring in the same amount of cash. Since their investments were Global in nature and Billions were invested abroad, foreign currencies raised are being sold and converted into dollars.This is a Global phenomena. The Yen was predominantly used by the carry trade and Japan never really attracted many buyers because Too many Japanese corporations own too many shares of each other.

    The dollars rise will stop when either the Fed cuts rates decisively which should be any day now or Hedge Funds curtail redemptions. The Fed can not afford to appear to be Political by cutting rates just before a Presidential Election, they will do so long before or shortly after but not at the end of the month.

    The Lemmings are all running together now. Valuations are meaningless, Trailing PE's mean squat.

    Take DRYS for instance. It instituted a dividend last Monday. Its trailing PE is less than 2.     Reply
  • commenter
    Owen
    Oct 02 06:24 PM
    Bailout Cost, per Taxpayer, by Income [view article]
    Nicely put, Smarty_Pants!

    However, keep in mind that most of the losses have already been accounted for due to mark-to-market principles, so anything paid above market value will appear as a profit on the next quarterly report for the company.

    Also, normal supply and demand rules still apply, so when the Treasury starts buying $850B of these toxic assets at market price, this market price will rise sharply.


    On Oct 02 02:17 PM Smarty_Pants wrote:

    > Purchasing bad debt won't eliminate the losses that it represents.
    > At best it will transfer them.
    >
    > Three cases:
    >
    > A) Treasury buys toxic securities at original values - original owner
    > avoids losses, taxpayers take them.
    >
    > B) Treasury buys toxic securities at true value - original owner
    > forced to realize the loss NOW, taxpayer avoids loss.
    >
    > C) Treasury buys toxic securities between full value and true value
    > - original owner forced to realize partial losses NOW, taxpayer gets
    > partial losses.
    >
    > No matter what, any schedule 3 asset that is not bought at full value
    > will put an immediate loss in the company's bottom line (which is
    > the fact we're trying to avoid right?). This still leaves the original
    > owner with the same problem NOW instead of later.
    >
    > Any other option requires the taxpayer to take the hit instead.
    > Blather about "holding until profitable" is just that, Blather.
    > If that were truly the case, Warren Buffett would be buying level
    > 3 assets instead of loaning money to Goldman and GE at 10% interest
    > with warrants.
    >
    > The reason Warren Buffett isn't buying toxic assets is that there's
    > no way to make money on them without risking a huge loss.     Reply
  • commenter
    Kelly
    Lieberman
    Oct 02 06:16 PM
    My Website
    Post-Bailout Investing: The Big Picture [view article]
    "In the meantime, continue to read your Washington Post and watch C-SPAN."
    For weeks, months, the media has been saying don't panic, don't sell. If you listened to them and your buddies at the Fed you have already lost your shirt your pants and your underwear.
    Best to start looking at the FUNDAMENTALS and start thinking for yourself.     Reply
  • commenter
    cjct
    Oct 02 04:49 PM
    Will Non-Farm Payroll Numbers Trigger a Rate Cut? [view article]
    I don't think there's any cause for the Fed to lower rates any more because it's clear that rates are not the issue, is the complete unwillingess of banks to lend to each other. The only measures that have proved even mildly effective have the been the liquidity injections in the money markets. Even as the Fed has lowered rates over 300bps it has done nothing to bring down the cost of borrowing for businesses or the consumer (just look at mortgage rates). Reply
  • commenter
    cjct
    Oct 02 04:41 PM
    Dollar's Recent Strength Has Little to Do With U.S. Economy [view article]
    The real reason the USD is performing so well is widespread risk-aversion. In this flight to safety Treasuries are the place to be and in order to buy T-bills you need dollars. Additionally, the best thing about currencies is that it's all relative, the US economy's prospects only need not be as bad as everyone else's for the dollar move higher. I'd expect that we've seen the bottom for the USD, as currency traders completed a classic overshoot this past spring. As bad as the banking situation is in the US, I have a feeling that at the very least the US is 6 months ahead of Europe in washing this crap out of the system. Reply
  • commenter
    Smarty_Pants
    Oct 02 04:31 PM
    My Website
    Will Non-Farm Payroll Numbers Trigger a Rate Cut? [view article]
    Does it really make any difference to the economy as a whole? Borrowing at the discount window is being used to meet reserve requirements, not generate business.

    At this point a loan from the discount window is an expense only at any rate.

    The bank shaped balloons have giant holes in the back. The FED is pumping as fast as they can with all the extra 'air' flowing freely out the hole, all in the name of keeping the balloon shaped like a bank instead of letting it collapse into a heap. Lowering the wages paid to the guy at the pump won't help solve the problem.     Reply
  • commenter
    Smarty_Pants
    Oct 02 04:07 PM
    My Website
    Dollar's Recent Strength Has Little to Do With U.S. Economy [view article]
    Interesting points. I guess the newly realized 'trust' risk might lead some of the heavy hitters to unwind positions with bank counterparties at that.

    Long term implication may be that forex becomes a much thinner market due to counterparty risk? If so, currency values will move farther with less pushing than in the pre-bailout world.

    Gee. Risk is popping up all over isn't it? I thought we got rid of that stuff by packaging it up and Fed-Ex'ing it to the middle of the ocean.     Reply
  • commenter
    Smarty_Pants
    Oct 02 02:17 PM
    My Website
    Bailout Cost, per Taxpayer, by Income [view article]
    Purchasing bad debt won't eliminate the losses that it represents. At best it will transfer them.

    Three cases:

    A) Treasury buys toxic securities at original values - original owner avoids losses, taxpayers take them.

    B) Treasury buys toxic securities at true value - original owner forced to realize the loss NOW, taxpayer avoids loss.

    C) Treasury buys toxic securities between full value and true value - original owner forced to realize partial losses NOW, taxpayer gets partial losses.

    No matter what, any schedule 3 asset that is not bought at full value will put an immediate loss in the company's bottom line (which is the fact we're trying to avoid right?). This still leaves the original owner with the same problem NOW instead of later.

    Any other option requires the taxpayer to take the hit instead. Blather about "holding until profitable" is just that, Blather. If that were truly the case, Warren Buffett would be buying level 3 assets instead of loaning money to Goldman and GE at 10% interest with warrants.

    The reason Warren Buffett isn't buying toxic assets is that there's no way to make money on them without risking a huge loss.
    Reply
  • commenter
    BS Detector
    Oct 02 01:17 PM
    What Effect Will Hyperinflation Have? [view article]
    Oops, sorry, I missed a zero. It should have been $410 + $4,400 you're in the hole. Now it's closer to $410+$3,900. Reply
  • commenter
    User 143167
    Oct 02 01:12 PM
    My Website
    Will Non-Farm Payroll Numbers Trigger a Rate Cut? [view article]
    The effective Fed Fund rate has been around 1.25% for about two weeks, which means the Fed has in facto cut 75bps already. They just not announced it. Ben B. is too clever trying to pump cheaper credit by off-balance sheet rate cuts so as to ecaspe the future finger pointing as we now do to Greenspan. Reply
  • commenter
    bigmoney
    Oct 02 12:37 PM
    The Amazing Dollar - Gold Correlation [view article]
    Gold as an inflation hedge? There's news that today, the Senate passed the $700 billion bailout. One argument against a bailout is that it will be (hyper) inflationary, but yet the price of GLD is sagging down to $82.

    And even in GLD's boom time over the past few years, there were plenty of commodity stocks that way outperformed. GLD has almost exactly tracked XLE over the past 5 years, which isn't anything remarkable, esp. when you consider the tax consequences.

    One advantage of gold (or platinum), is that you can possess the commodity privately, without a paper trail. Although I don't know about the value of privacy, because any court wanting to discover your assets, can simply make you swear under oath.

    And then there's the purchase, transport and storage problems. Imagine transporting twenty pounds of the stuff down the freeway, and your transmission fails.     Reply
  • commenter
    BS Detector
    Oct 02 12:29 PM
    What Effect Will Hyperinflation Have? [view article]
    Mudmandon: Let's assume we made a deal at the close on September 26. As of now, you're in the hole $410 because of interest and another $440 or so if you chose to pile in to gold. Reply
  • commenter
    BS Detector
    Oct 02 12:19 PM
    What Effect Will Hyperinflation Have? [view article]
    I'm sorry some of you folks can't understand a logical discussion of finance. You see big numbers and think the worst.

    "Our money is back (sic) by NOTHING!"

    True - been that way for a long time. It's a good thing, too; the economy's grown much faster than the money supply could have grown had we continued to back money with precious metals.

    Isn't it interesting how well the dollar is holding up? Since the close on Friday the 19th, the dollar is up 5% against the Euro, more than 3% against a currency basket, and more than 4% against gold. The flight to quality here hasn't been to gold, but to Treasuries. So much for your theory.

    "If China and all of the holders of our currency bail out, we are in deep &^$%."

    Let's see - if everybody in America stopped eating, we'd be in trouble too. Do you really have so little understanding of how markets work?

    "You need to study up on your history and figure out what is going on before you lose everything."

    Exactly what in history do you think is comparable?

    "once this sinerio (sic) plays out, i am wondering if you will retract this garbage you are writing."

    When would you like me to return to continue the discussion?

    "Better to be silent and thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt"

    You might want to run a spell and grammar check before you write such things.     Reply
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